Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 12-07-2024

Glad Assad is out, and hope that what comes next is better.  Hard to believe that it could be worse than a person who deploys chemical weapons against his own people.  But still, I was hoping for better in Sudan when Omar al-Bashir was toppled, and yet now Sudan is in the midst of a civil war combined with a famine.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 12-08-2024

Here's a fun video. Rebel's reviewing Assad's car collection. Ferrari F50, Lamborghini LM002 the highlights IMHO.

https://x.com/hassan_akkad/status/1865679796891422995

Freed Syrian prisoners.

https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1865695330991255843

Freed women prisoners. Really incredible scenes.

https://x.com/LibyaLiberty/status/1865657540153094462

Can't find it now but yesterday there was a prisoner who had been jailed for decades simply for beating one of Hafez Assad's sons in an equestrian event. Another upon being freed thought it must be Saddam Hussein's Iraqi army freeing them.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 12-08-2024

Per Russian media, Assad made it to Moscow.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 12-08-2024

Isn’t Assad a bargaining chip for Putin to be able to establish relations with the rebels?  Why not give Assad’s head as a token gift?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 12-08-2024

I would think that harboring Assad would be counterproductive if they are expecting to keep their bases, but that possibility may already be foreclosed. Russian journalists have stated that they are leaving their bases in Syria. Edit- though it does not appear a large evacuation is under way, at least quite yet.

https://x.com/MassDara/status/1865854264980935160

I think it's mostly about Putin not wanting an allied dictator facing the consequences of his actions. Not a good look if your buddy is lynched. People at home might start to get ideas. 

Also Putin is still supporting various other strongmen dictators. If they see Russia won't even give you a place to live when things go south, those guys may start to explore other arrangements.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-08-2024

(12-08-2024, 01:28 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I think it's mostly about Putin not wanting an allied dictator facing the consequences of his actions. Not a good look if your buddy is lynched. People at home might start to get ideas. 

Also Putin is still supporting various other strongmen dictators. If they see Russia won't even give you a place to live when things go south, those guys may start to explore other arrangements.

I think you are at least partly right about this. Putin doesn't want to appear as an "unreliable ally" to any of his clients. He already has a very big black eye in this area because he didn't "support" Assad militarily when Assad needed it. Being unwilling to rescue Assad himself would look even worse. However, IMO there is another factor in play here. Russia probably also thinks Assad might still be useful to them at some point. Exactly how is probably not known, but until the "way ahead" in Syria is clarified, keeping Assad around "just in case" makes sense. When/if it no longer does Assad may or may not fall out of a window.

As far as the bases go, IMO Russia will quietly keep them until the "new" Syrian government is in a position to force them to leave and wishes to do so. Right now, everybody involved in the Syrian revolution has bigger fish to fry than worrying about the Russian bases. Russia has undoubtedly been in contact with various subsets of the rebels trying to make a "deal" and are still doing so. The Khmeimim air base is very close (21 miles) to rebel forces. https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/12/03/russias-khmeimim-base-just-20-miles-from-advancing-syrian-rebels/#google_vignette is obsolete (3-Dec) but it points out the risk/benefit of an attempt to actually occupy the base. IMO the rebels (soon to be part of some government of Syria, maybe) will adopt a "Don't poke the bear" approach for the immediate future. Afterwords, who knows?

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/12/08/how-russia-is-reacting-to-the-downfall-of-syrias-assad-a87260 has some insights on what Russia is trying to accomplish. I find one quote in a way quite humorous:

Quote:The Russian Foreign Ministry said Sunday that “Russian military bases in Syria are on heightened combat readiness.”

Really? I can't imagine why :-).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-08-2024

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHj4uKwyAv8
Reuters has a similar story, but it is a paywall. It appears that Russia at least thinks it has a deal in place to ensure the safety of its bases in Syria. FWIW the Reuters article indicates that deal was not with HTS but with other rebel groups. Who knows what is actually true. Russian Mil bloggers are still concerned about the security of the bases.

Reuters link:
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-syrias-assad-has-left-country-given-orders-peaceful-power-handover-2024-12-08/

Never mind! BC beat me to it :-).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 12-08-2024

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-syria-rebels-stars-aligned-assads-ouster-2024-12-08/

Kind of interesting to see Turkey's role. They didn't give approval, but apparently, on the other hand, they didn't forbid it either. Assad should have negotiated peace when he had the chance...

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 12-08-2024

(12-08-2024, 07:33 PM)Goose Wrote:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHj4uKwyAv8
Reuters has a similar story, but it is a paywall. It appears that Russia at least thinks it has a deal in place to ensure the safety of its bases in Syria. FWIW the Reuters article indicates that deal was not with HTS but with other rebel groups. Who knows what is actually true. Russian Mil bloggers are still concerned about the security of the bases.

In the YouTube video (ABC - Australia) "It looks like the exit of Assad has been done in exchange for the rebels leaving the bases alone"

Hmmm.... if Putin has to take such an exit, I'd guess Syria is off the list of places that would offer him asylum (and protection from whoever gains control in Russia).   But I'm looking too far in the future.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-08-2024

(12-08-2024, 08:02 PM)M T Wrote:  

(12-08-2024, 07:33 PM)Goose Wrote:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHj4uKwyAv8
Reuters has a similar story, but it is a paywall. It appears that Russia at least thinks it has a deal in place to ensure the safety of its bases in Syria. FWIW the Reuters article indicates that deal was not with HTS but with other rebel groups. Who knows what is actually true. Russian Mil bloggers are still concerned about the security of the bases.

In the YouTube video (ABC - Australia) "It looks like the exit of Assad has been done in exchange for the rebels leaving the bases alone"

Assad was going to "exit" one way or another. The benefit the rebels got is that all opposition to them ceased, because Assad ordered his people to quit. The transfer of power would be "peaceful". Of course,lots of Assad's troops were quitting anyway, but the bureaucrats will now cooperate too, rather than leave town. That is worth quite a bit to the rebels. On top of that, the rebels weren't going to go after the bases on day one anyway. They first have to organize some kind of government and stabilize the country, at least to a minimal extent. However that goes, it will take awhile.

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(12-08-2024, 07:52 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-syria-rebels-stars-aligned-assads-ouster-2024-12-08/

Kind of interesting to see Turkey's role.  They didn't give approval, but apparently, on the other hand, they didn't forbid it either.  Assad should have negotiated peace when he had the chance...

BC

I think the only way Türkiye could stop HTS from doing whatever they wanted would be to take military action, either themselves or through their proxy the SNA. As the article states Türkiye probably figured HTS would make some progress but would probably end up being contained by Assad's forces. No reason for Türkiye to take casualties when somebody else was willing. It didn't work out that way, and now Türkiye, like everybody else, is trying to find a way ahead that serves their interests. The SNA is going to be a player in the "new" Syria. Türkiye is going to insist on that.

My guess is that Assad knew that groups like the HTS wouldn't accept him remaining in authority in a "negotiated" peace deal. Türkiye, Russia, and Iran would have liked that fine, but most Syrians wouldn't. Assad would end up getting the same deal he just did but without the drama. He probably thought he could weather the storm. If Iran had backed him with Hezbollah troops, he very well may have done so. The fact they did not is a bit puzzling. It appears Iran may have lost its nerve.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-09-2024

https://www.yahoo.com/news/israel-says-destroy-syrias-heavy-102852730.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/israel-seizes-land-syrian-border-203342550.html

The second link has photos of one of the "early" Israeli air strikes. IMO Israel is being "honest" about its intent in Syria. They want to eliminate weapons that can threaten Israel plus any chemical weapons in Syrian possession. They then will stay out of Syrian affairs unless and until Syria takes some action against Israel. This is about the best anybody could hope for.

The "bad news" is that Israel probably will not be able to destroy 100% of the strategic and chemical weapons, particularly chemical weapons in "ready use" storage. Those sites are probably widely dispersed and possibly have already been looted by one of the various players. It is also unfortunate that in Syria, like Iraq before it, many records are being destroyed by looters. Where things are and what happened to people becomes much harder to determine if the paperwork can't be found or is incomplete. The looters usually aren't after the files, they are after loot. The files are collateral damage.

UPDATE: https://www.yahoo.com/news/turmoil-damascus-tensions-doha-132306820.html
Interesting point of view. Makes several points that IMO are important and need to be made. The only statement he makes I don't agree with is that it is unimaginable that the way ahead for Syria could be worse than its past under Assad. IMO it is easily imaginable. Let's hope it remains imagination.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-09-2024

(12-07-2024, 11:24 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Glad Assad is out, and hope that what comes next is better.  Hard to believe that it could be worse than a person who deploys chemical weapons against his own people.  But still, I was hoping for better in Sudan when Omar al-Bashir was toppled, and yet now Sudan is in the midst of a civil war combined with a famine.

BC

https://www.yahoo.com/news/erdogan-says-putin-only-two-220345501.html

Long way to go before this all settles out, if it ever does. Erdogan isn't going to accept anything less than getting rid of all his Syrian refugees. He also is going to attempt retaining a significant influence inside the next Syrian government. That may not work out so well for a "stable and democratic" Syria.

Right now, Iran seems to be on its back foot and not "pressing" anywhere. They have indeed had a "difficult year". As long as that remains the case, IMO there is some hope the chaos in Syria might remain limited. There are still lots of "bad things" that can happen, but they can probably be limited in scope to Syria itself. If Iran, either out of desperation or cold calculation, attempts to inject a large number of their client Iraqi Shiite fighters into Syria, all hell can break loose. HTS is Sunni. There are lots of Sunnis in Iraq that are not happy with the Shiite influence in their own country. This conflict could re-ignite in both Syria and Iraq. That might suit Iran just fine, because the Syrian government would be too busy fighting its opponents in Iraq and Syria to prevent Iran from running war material through the area to Lebanon. Of course, there are other groups, like the Kurds, who will need to protect their interests. Islamic State and al Qaeda are still active in both countries and will take advantage of the situation if they can. Let's hope Iran abstains from such a course, but I wouldn't bet on that in the medium term. Iran wants a compliant Syria, and it seems unlikely HTS will provide that, at least based on their statements.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 12-11-2024

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph is extrapolating Russia's flight from Syria along with the three-year-old Ukrainian war into a situation that is particularly dangerous for Putin, and that his demise (political or actual) may be much closer than we realize. Russia is in an inflationary spiral, interest rates are at 21% and climbing. The Soviet military-industrial complex is cannibalizing the rest of the economy.

By the numbers/by the news. Doesn't look good for Putin:

- 5mm job openings
- 800k well educated Russians have fled for greener pastures
- 600k IT worker shortage
- 400k open defense industry positions
- Oil export earnings have fallen in half
- Facing an oil price war with Saudi Arabia over Asian buyers. $65 barrel now, will be $45 to $50 in a year. If the Saudis flood the world with cheap crude to recoup market share, it could fall below $40/barrel.
- Gold reserves have dropped in half over the last 15 months.
- Substantial technology chip shortage. Russian systems are configured for Western semiconductors, and they haven't been able to replace TI chips. 
- Chinese banks have stopped accepting Russian UnionPay cards and are pulling back from Russian E-Commerce sites.
- Three weeks ago, the US imposed sanctions on Gazprombank and 50+ other Russian banks.

Putin's regime may be closer to a Soviet collapse than we think

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-11-2024

(12-11-2024, 02:53 PM)Mick Wrote:  Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph is extrapolating Russia's flight from Syria along with the three-year-old Ukrainian war into a situation that is particularly dangerous for Putin, and that his demise (political or actual) may be much closer than we realize. Russia is in an inflationary spiral, interest rates are at 21% and climbing. The Soviet military-industrial complex is cannibalizing the rest of the economy.

By the numbers/by the news. Doesn't look good for Putin:

- 5mm job openings
- 800k well educated Russians have fled for greener pastures
- 600k IT worker shortage
- 400k open defense industry positions
- Oil export earnings have fallen in half
- Facing an oil price war with Saudi Arabia over Asian buyers. $65 barrel now, will be $45 to $50 in a year. If the Saudis flood the world with cheap crude to recoup market share, it could fall below $40/barrel.
- Gold reserves have dropped in half over the last 15 months.
- Substantial technology chip shortage. Russian systems are configured for Western semiconductors, and they haven't been able to replace TI chips. 
- Chinese banks have stopped accepting Russian UnionPay cards and are pulling back from Russian E-Commerce sites.
- Three weeks ago, the US imposed sanctions on Gazprombank and 50+ other Russian banks.

Putin's regime may be closer to a Soviet collapse than we think

There is no doubt that Putin's Russia has serious problems, many of which can't be easily solved. Most of these problems don't go away even if fighting in Ukraine ceases. There is also some controversy about many of the issues. For every article one finds saying Russia is "leaving Syria" one sees one like this https://www.dw.com/en/fate-of-russian-military-bases-in-syria-remains-open/a-71027207. Russia clearly is not evacuating their air or naval base yet. They may eventually have to, but until Syria has some kind of a functioning government IMO that won't happen.

There are articles saying that Russia has already found a "work-around" for the Gazprombank sanctions by allowing Hungary and Slovakia to convert "foreign currency" to Rubles at other banks and then transfer them as payments.

IMO nobody can easily predict what is going to happen in Russia. Like Assad in Syria, Putin will be in charge of Russia until he isn't, and that change can come suddenly. Often governments seem strong until somebody actually pushes on them. It is a very nonlinear effect. The analogy of the straw that broke the camels back is a real thing. What the US needs to do is plan for every eventuality. My hope is that the US and the EU do nothing to relieve pressure on Putin during negotiations regarding Ukraine. Right now, Putin is "winning" in Ukraine. He also has a "way out" if he decides Russia is becoming too "brittle" for his comfort. He can start peace negotiations, setting prenegotiation conditions that takes the pressure off (e.g. lifting sanctions). I hope we do not allow him to accomplish his goals before ensuring we accomplish ours, whatever they are ATM.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 12-11-2024

I worry about Putin becoming desperate and increasing cyber attacks on the West, or even perhaps just facilitating a North Korea attack by sharing tools and advanced persistent threats already in place.

"Russia ready to wage cyber war on UK, minister to say"  (BBC, 11/23/24)

What we've witnessed in the West so far are merely limited forays.  Remember that Russia executed cyber attacks against the government and energy infrastructure in Ukraine in 2022.

You may find it inconvenient if Facebook gets taken off the air.  But in a war, the goal would be total chaos.

The energy infrastructure and assets like bank records would be attacked.  Areas without power for a day are inconvenienced; if it lasts a week, the supplies we live on will be in short supply, and people will react to that.  While major financial institutions are prepared for complete destruction of their facilities, the time until they come back on line would be stressful to society.  The Internet and other telecommunications as a whole might be widely unusable for extended periods.  We've seen bad actors encrypt the records of medical facilities and local governments.  Imagine if a bad actor managed to invalidate not only all your online accounts, but also those of everyone else.  Or, worse, suppose they made it so anyone could login as anyone.  You may think it bad if all the traffic lights turn red, but imagine if they all turn green.

A cyber war would be very destabilizing for everyone, but perhaps worse on the more developed countries.  Thankfully, I don't think anyone would start a nuclear war in response to a cyber war.  The world would eventually recover from a cyber war.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 12-11-2024

If China or Russia blocked people from getting on their favorite social media apps for more than a day, let alone screw with their financial accounts, there would be a h*ge groundswell of support for bombing those countries "back to the stone age". Everyone would then subsequently be pissed at any American service members dying in a military conflict.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 12-12-2024

Question re: Russian and Chinese militaries. Is it true that neither has a noncommissioned officer corps?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-12-2024

(12-12-2024, 01:17 PM)Mick Wrote:  Question re: Russian and Chinese militaries. Is it true that neither has a noncommissioned officer corps?

No, it is not true, in any sense of the word. Both militaries have NCOs. Their NCOs however have quite different responsibilities than NCOs in the US military have. Both countries military are very "top down" in their command structures. In those militaries both company-grade officers and their subordinate NCOs have very little decision-making responsibility. They enforce discipline and do what they are told. OTOH, the Russian Navy couldn't operate at all without their cadre of Michmen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michman These senior enlisted are generally the only ones on the vessel who actually can operate it :-). For a table of Russian ranks, look at https://www.warpowerrussia.com/russian-military-ranks.php Plenty of NCOs.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 12-15-2024

Good (gifted) article about the evolution of drones, especially Ukrainian ones, as they adapt to battlefield realities such as signal jamming:

You’ve been given free access to this article from The Economist as a gift. You can open the link five times within seven days. After that it will expire.

How Ukraine uses cheap AI-guided drones to deadly effect against Russia
https://econ.st/4iA756V

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 12-16-2024

(12-15-2024, 12:39 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Good (gifted) article about the evolution of drones, especially Ukrainian ones, as they adapt to battlefield realities such as signal jamming:

You’ve been given free access to this article from The Economist as a gift. You can open the link five times within seven days. After that it will expire.

How Ukraine uses cheap AI-guided drones to deadly effect against Russia
https://econ.st/4iA756V

BC

New reports reflect that Ukraine destroyed a 40 car fuel train coming from Crimea.  Destroying all the tank cars and a substantial amount of track.  HIMARS rersponsible for a good part of the damage.  If the area is in range of HIMARS repair of the track bed and rail line is bound to be difficult.

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