Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 05-29-2025

This murder&assassination leaves a sour aftertaste.  Can you imagine being the operative (not one of the 2 victims) who presumably detonated the device, knowing that it would kill an innocent man as well as the intended target?  That's essentially as immoral as the Russian who sets the target for a guide bomb or missile or drone to kill innocent people.  (I'd mention another class of such people currently active, but it might get me in trouble here.)

On a BBC News (TV) report yesterday, there was a video from a Russian drone that sought out an armored personnel carrier.  Just as it approached the vehicle, the vehicle pulled over and the rear door started to open.  The drone went right in.  Ouch.

We just had Memorial/Remembrance Day.  While it is primarily for remembering those who died, all too often those who survived need our prayers and support as much.   (Although I was a young adult during the Vietnam War, I am blessed in not having to experience it directly.)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 05-29-2025

According to the BBC's "How the West is helping Russia to fund its war on Ukraine", the West is pumping more dollars into Russian petroleum than to Ukraine aid, since the Russian invasion.

"Russian gas is still piped to Europe in increasing quantities via Turkey: CREA's data shows that its volume rose by 26.77% in January and February 2025 over the same period in 2024."

Just the NATO states: Russia $335B Ukraine $236B
EU states: Russia $233B Ukraine $73B

"CREA says it has identified three "laundromat refineries" in Turkey and three in India processing Russian crude and selling the resulting fuel on to sanctioning countries. It says they have used €6.1bn worth of Russian crude to make products for sanctioning countries."

For the world: "Since the start of that invasion in February 2022, Russia has made more than three times as much money by exporting hydrocarbons than Ukraine has received in aid allocated by its allies."

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-30-2025

Interesting thread on how Ukraine uses anti drone netting and constructs safe zones for transportation near the front.

https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1928403916183437725

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-31-2025

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/trl-drones-created-fully-autonomous-interceptor-drones-to-counter-shahed-drones/?__cf_chl_tk=v8prs1mFa2.QrReSKJrwWxOB0UJ7DH7EnBXyXVVkR6Q-1748715358-1.0.1.1-ldZc81nCb6Tf02zV8OVY_6V2S7Ox7wipN0_Tofxh4XA

I am not sure how much of this "announcement" can be taken literally. However, the usage of antonymous interceptor drones is clearly the "way ahead". These drones supposedly use radar to detect and track their targets. Due to the size of these interceptor drone millimeter wave radar is the only possible frequency range. That carries with it a set of problems. The targeted drones are also not great radar targets, as much of their structure is not radar reflective. This is in any case somewhat of a quibble. The important point is that interceptor drones are starting to be built "seriously". When such drones come equipped with effective multi-spectral sensors  and capable onboard AI target recognition the "game" will indeed change. That day is coming. This announcement shows it will be fairly "soon", probably two years at most, possibly much less.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-01-2025

Ukraine, in a drone attack targeting multiple Russian airbases far from the front, has destroyed a large portion, perhaps a majority, of the Russian strategic bomber force. The FPV drones were launched from parked trucks close to the airbases.

An attack more impressive and possibly even more impactful than the sinking of the Moskva. Cripples the air launched leg of the Russian nuclear triad and should significantly impair their launching of conventional long range attacks against Ukraine. Massive success. Impossible to replace these planes anytime soon.

Quote:The source said one of the airfields hit was the Belaya air base in Russia's Irkutsk Oblast, more than 4,000 kilometers from Ukraine.

Olenya air base in Russia's Murmansk Oblast, the Diaghilev airbase in Ryazan Oblast, Ivanovo airbase in Ivanovo Oblast were also targeted.

"SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3," the source added.

Video provided by the source shows what appears to be a row of heavy bomber aircraft on fire at one of the airbases.

https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

Hard to know how trustworthy the numbers are, but from the photos and videos public so far, definitely multiple bases and many aircraft hit.

Some videos of the strikes on twitter-


https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1929168820918227391

Quote:This is a strategic setback for Russia. A significant part — maybe even the majority — of its airworthy strategic bomber fleet (part of the nuclear triad) appears to have been destroyed today.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1929150246627532893

Quote:Footage of a Ukrainian FPV strike drone rising from a cargo truck and heading towards Russia's Belaya Airbase.

The drone launch and airbase hit were over 4000 km (2500 mi) from Ukraine.

...

Afterwards, the Ukrainian launch truck self-destructed.

https://x.com/christogrozev/status/1929162918966312962

This is a different drone truck/carrier launching FPV drones.

https://x.com/markito0171/status/1929160899366920532

Claimed 27!! Tu-95 destroyed.

https://x.com/markito0171/status/1929155046740037815

More videos, and a photo of claimed dead driver of one of the FPV truck/carriers.

Edit- new vids-

https://x.com/markito0171/status/1929183895682990515

Another FPV truck self destructing

....


Not sure the US would be able to defend itself well against such an attack, especially if unexpected. The future of warfare is now.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 06-01-2025

(06-01-2025, 07:14 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Ukraine, in a drone attack targeting multiple Russian airbases far from the front, has destroyed a large portion, perhaps a majority, of the Russian strategic bomber force. The FPV drones were launched from parked trucks close to the airbases.

An attack more impressive and possibly even more impactful than the sinking of the Moskva. Cripples the air launched leg of the Russian nuclear triad and should significantly impair their launching of conventional long range attacks against Ukraine. Massive success. Impossible to replace these planes anytime soon.

Quote:The source said one of the airfields hit was the Belaya air base in Russia's Irkutsk Oblast, more than 4,000 kilometers from Ukraine.

Olenya air base in Russia's Murmansk Oblast, the Diaghilev airbase in Ryazan Oblast, Ivanovo airbase in Ivanovo Oblast were also targeted.

"SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3," the source added.

Video provided by the source shows what appears to be a row of heavy bomber aircraft on fire at one of the airbases.

https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

Hard to know how trustworthy the numbers are, but from the photos and videos public so far, definitely multiple bases and many aircraft hit.

Some videos of the strikes on twitter-


https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1929168820918227391

Quote:This is a strategic setback for Russia. A significant part — maybe even the majority — of its airworthy strategic bomber fleet (part of the nuclear triad) appears to have been destroyed today.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1929150246627532893

Quote:Footage of a Ukrainian FPV strike drone rising from a cargo truck and heading towards Russia's Belaya Airbase.

The drone launch and airbase hit were over 4000 km (2500 mi) from Ukraine.

...

Afterwards, the Ukrainian launch truck self-destructed.

https://x.com/christogrozev/status/1929162918966312962

This is a different drone truck/carrier launching FPV drones.

https://x.com/markito0171/status/1929160899366920532

Claimed 27!! Tu-95 destroyed.

https://x.com/markito0171/status/1929155046740037815

More videos, and a photo of claimed dead driver of one of the FPV truck/carriers.

It is pretty incredible that Ukraine could pull this off.  If it is in fact true, I have to wonder how Putin can survive something like this. A million plus casualties, destruction of thousands of tanks and trucks and now this and what does he have to show for this?  He seems to have no real interest in a cease fire most likely because he can't agree to any kind of peace where Russia gets very little in return for the vast losses of men and equipment which will cost billions of Rubles to replace.

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(06-01-2025, 07:14 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Ukraine, in a drone attack targeting multiple Russian airbases far from the front, has destroyed a large portion, perhaps a majority, of the Russian strategic bomber force. The FPV drones were launched from parked trucks close to the airbases.

An attack more impressive and possibly even more impactful than the sinking of the Moskva. Cripples the air launched leg of the Russian nuclear triad and should significantly impair their launching of conventional long range attacks against Ukraine. Massive success. Impossible to replace these planes anytime soon.

Quote:The source said one of the airfields hit was the Belaya air base in Russia's Irkutsk Oblast, more than 4,000 kilometers from Ukraine.

Olenya air base in Russia's Murmansk Oblast, the Diaghilev airbase in Ryazan Oblast, Ivanovo airbase in Ivanovo Oblast were also targeted.

"SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3," the source added.

Video provided by the source shows what appears to be a row of heavy bomber aircraft on fire at one of the airbases.

https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

Hard to know how trustworthy the numbers are, but from the photos and videos public so far, definitely multiple bases and many aircraft hit.

Some videos of the strikes on twitter-


https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1929168820918227391

Quote:This is a strategic setback for Russia. A significant part — maybe even the majority — of its airworthy strategic bomber fleet (part of the nuclear triad) appears to have been destroyed today.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1929150246627532893

Quote:Footage of a Ukrainian FPV strike drone rising from a cargo truck and heading towards Russia's Belaya Airbase.

The drone launch and airbase hit were over 4000 km (2500 mi) from Ukraine.

...

Afterwards, the Ukrainian launch truck self-destructed.

https://x.com/christogrozev/status/1929162918966312962

This is a different drone truck/carrier launching FPV drones.

https://x.com/markito0171/status/1929160899366920532

Claimed 27!! Tu-95 destroyed.

https://x.com/markito0171/status/1929155046740037815

More videos, and a photo of claimed dead driver of one of the FPV truck/carriers.

Edit- new vids-

https://x.com/markito0171/status/1929183895682990515

Another FPV truck self destructing

....


Not sure the US would be able to defend itself well against such an attack, especially if unexpected. The future of warfare is now.

How on earth did Ukraine get trucks full of drones and operators so far into Russia?  Their Opsec is incredible.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-01-2025

https://www.ft.com/content/16f33b02-b337-49da-802b-18659582f723

More from FT. There are some shorter clips of the previously seen videos included, in case you don't have a twitter/X log in.

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(06-01-2025, 08:05 AM)GK3 Wrote:  How on earth did Ukraine get trucks full of drones and operators so far into Russia?  Their Opsec is incredible.

I think its highly likely the drivers of the trucks were completely unaware of their contents or true purpose. SBU has claimed all their operatives are all safely back in Ukraine, and that the attack has been planned for a year and a half.
.....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/01/ukraine-launches-major-drone-attack-on-russian-bombers-security-official-says

This Guardian article has some of the photos, previously shown on the twitter threads I posted earlier, of the drone "launchpads" on top of what appears to be regular shipping containers.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-01-2025

(06-01-2025, 07:14 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Not sure the US would be able to defend itself well against such an attack, especially if unexpected. The future of warfare is now.

Indeed! Most US air force bases are extremely vulnerable to such attacks, and a "surprise" attack of this type may even remain unattributable for quite some time. In addition, there are so many variations on this theme that make it difficult to prepare a "defense". We don't know exactly what we are defending against. One factor that does help is that the US has lots of "indoor" storage for its aircraft. Certainly all the B-2s are stored indoors whenever possible. They don't much like weather. This makes attacks that can't penetrate the building before exploding very much less effective. That said, all aircraft have to spend some time on the flightline before a mission, if not for other reasons. Aircraft are also relatively fragile and burn pretty well.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 06-01-2025

More from the WSJ (should not be paywalled):

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/ukraine-says-its-drones-destroyed-warplanes-deep-inside-russia-50a634c6?st=wQNaoz&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Quote:The attack, dubbed “Spider’s Web,” took a year and a half to prepare, officials at Ukraine’s main security and intelligence agency, the SBU, said on Sunday. Ukraine’s drones targeted Russia’s Belaya, Ivanovo, Dyagilevo and Olenya air bases, all of which house Russian military planes.

…

Ukrainian intelligence officials said the agency moved dozens of small quadcopter drones to Russian territory. It then moved wooden containers to Russia, which were used to hide the drones ahead of the attack. When it came time to strike, the containers were placed on trucks and the lids of the containers were opened remotely. The swarm of drones flew out to find their targets.

…

Losing dozens of long-range aircraft vital to Russia’s nuclear forces and its attacks on Ukraine would gravely damage Russian military strength. Russia no longer produces the Tu-95MS or Tu-22M3 planes that were among those damaged, according to Ukrainian intelligence officials.

Russia before the attacks had 54 Tu-22M3s and 58 Tu-95Ms, according to Military Balance+, a database produced by the International Institute of Strategic Studies, a London think tank. It isn’t clear how many of those planes were operational. In Russia, old planes have long been kept and cannibalized for spare parts.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-01-2025

(06-01-2025, 08:30 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

(06-01-2025, 08:05 AM)GK3 Wrote:  How on earth did Ukraine get trucks full of drones and operators so far into Russia?  Their Opsec is incredible.

I think its highly likely the drivers of the trucks were completely unaware of their contents or true purpose. SBU has claimed all their operatives are all safely back in Ukraine, and that the attack has been planned for a year and a half.

The public statements of the SBU are of course not to be entirely trusted :-). It is also difficult to know how these drones were "controlled", if indeed they were at all. The drones were supposedly launched "automatically" from the trucks. IMO that makes a lot of sense. These drones could also have had their respective target exact coordinates uploaded just before launch by as single operator located many miles away, possibly in Ukraine itself! The Russian phone network works quite well for such things. Although the drones involved were "FPV" type it would not be necessary to use them that way on large targets that are not (yet) moving. That is a lot simpler and less risky to operatives. The problem with using a conventional FPV approach is that each drone would require an operator. That is IMO too many people needed within 10 km or so of the target. Those people would have a significant risk of being caught. Of course, if each truck was also equipped with a satellite network terminal used as a "repeater" the operators could be located in Ukraine itself. Works  for Creech, just slightly differently :-). There is an "interesting" third possibility : https://united24media.com/latest-news/museum-bombers-reportedly-helped-ukraine-strike-russian-air-bases-heres-how-8802 This may be maskirovka, but it would be even more interesting if it is true.

Whatever may be "true", the SBU has no reason to compromise its methods. They aren't going to do so. They may release a plausible explanation of how it was done, but it is probably a fabrication. They SBU stated the drones were "smuggled into Russia". Could be, but Russian civilians are actively buying Chinese drones via the internet to supply to Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. No reason in an 18 month long operation that the SBU couldn't do the same inside Russia. It wouldn't be particularly suspicious even if the FSB was "watching". IMO it is almost certain that the wooden/sheet metal drone containers were locally sourced. The trucks themselves may have been purchased or rented. Free lance drivers could have then been hired. It is also possible the "delivery" was contracted with several different "legitimate" Russian trucking companies that had no idea what they were delivering. It could have also involved Russian organized crime that was deceived into believing it was some kind of smuggling/tax avoidance operation. Lots of possibilities.

I will be "satisfied" if we get 3rd party estimates of the number of aircraft damaged or destroyed. Initial reports are almost always wrong, but it looks like the destruction is "significant". Russia is not building TU-95s or TU-22Ms anymore. They can't replace them, although they have some airframes in storage that could in theory be upgraded and "brought back" in service. Not quick and not cheap, even if it is actually possible. Russia is actively building A-50s, but VERY slowly. The TU-160 is in "production" with outstanding orders. It is going much slower than A-50s because it involves building new airframes. A-50s are modifications of existing airframes. In any case it is highly probable the Ukraine war will be over for years before replacements for the destroyed aircraft could be supplied. North Korea doesn't make them either :-).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 06-01-2025

(06-01-2025, 08:47 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(06-01-2025, 07:14 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Not sure the US would be able to defend itself well against such an attack, especially if unexpected. The future of warfare is now.

Indeed! Most US air force bases are extremely vulnerable to such attacks, and a "surprise" attack of this type may even remain unattributable for quite some time. In addition, there are so many variations on this theme that make it difficult to prepare a "defense". We don't know exactly what we are defending against. One factor that does help is that the US has lots of "indoor" storage for its aircraft. Certainly all the B-2s are stored indoors whenever possible. They don't much like weather. This makes attacks that can't penetrate the building before exploding very much less effective. That said, all aircraft have to spend some time on the flightline before a mission, if not for other reasons. Aircraft are also relatively fragile and burn pretty well.

The obvious answer here seems to be to build more 100k enclosures to protect 50-200 million dollar aircraft. I suspect even without drone strikes it's worthwhile just to keep them in the garage, as most owners of far less fragile sports cars can attest. 

As you say they can they can't be indoors 100% of the time, but it would make coordinating a big attack like this impossible. 

That said, well done Ukraine!

Given the standoff nature of the air war and the fact they're probably more limited by missle supply then airframes, this may not have a brobdingnagian impact on the front lines, but politically the impact is massive.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 06-01-2025

Apparently, the U.S. was not told in advance about this operation. I wouldn’t have expected them to.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-01-2025

(06-01-2025, 09:42 AM)gocard14 Wrote:  The obvious answer here seems to be to build more 100k enclosures to protect 50-200 million dollar aircraft. I suspect even without drone strikes it's worthwhile just to keep them in the garage, as most owners of far less fragile sports cars can attest.

The enclosure required for a single B-52  costs much much more than 100K. The other more serious problem is real estate. The land area required to allow housing all US aircraft would be absurd. Once a building is built, it is permanently in the way. You can't get a towbar and move it. Even when it is empty, other aircraft can't drive through it. Essentially all current air bases couldn't do it. Not near enough space. Air bases located in northern areas that are snowy and cold have a larger proportion of hanger space to flightline space, but even they have to store some aircraft outdoors.

The USAF has 841 F-16s in active service. Also, unlike most sports car owners that have multiple vehicles it is impractical to store these F-16s "offsite" because they get driven "a lot", and when they aren't in active use they are usually undergoing some type of maintenance. Lots of that maintenance happens outdoors out of necessity. That is just F-16s. The USAF has 408 F-35As, about 300 F-15s, 218 A-10s, 76 B-52s, 45 B-1s, 19 B-2s, 396 KC-135s, 89 KC-46s, 279 C-130s, 146 C-17s, and 52 C-5s. There are also many "odds and ends" that increase the number further. That is a LOT of hanger space. It also must be recognized that these aircraft do not return to their "home" base every night. They will spends months supporting other activities in other places. They would need hanger space in those locations as well. Imagine if all the aircraft involved in Red Flag had to have hangers. Totally impossible.

Quote:As you say they can they can't be indoors 100% of the time, but it would make coordinating a big attack like this impossible. 

That said, well done Ukraine!

Given the standoff nature of the air war and the fact they're probably more limited by missle supply then airframes, this may not have a brobdingnagian impact on the front lines, but politically the impact is massive.

One would think that would be the case, but according to Ukraine it is not. Take a look at https://united24media.com/latest-news/russia-builds-cruise-missiles-by-the-hundreds-why-is-it-launching-so-few-8644. There is no question that Russia is launching "too many" ALCMs into Ukraine, but possibly fewer than Russia is actually building. As the article says, there are many possible explanations for this.

This attack, while extremely bold and clever, is not going to stop Russia's barrage upon Ukraine. If it could be frequently repeated it would certainly make a much bigger dent. Unfortunately it clearly cannot be replicated easily. The war goes on. Ukraine hangs in there.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 06-01-2025

(06-01-2025, 10:34 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Apparently, the U.S. was not told in advance about this operation. I wouldn’t have expected them to.

However, no doubt this was triggered by the possibility of a cease-fire in the near future, just as was Russia's massive number of drone attacks over night and in the last week.  The optimist in me believes this signifies that both countries believe something may change soon.  Both sides may have gone all in just before the talks, and the "2 week" deadline.

One never knows. This seems to be an operation that the US would not want to have prior specific knowledge of.  Even if the US wasn't told, I could believe maybe the US knew something was in process.   It would be foolish to think Ukraine was simply putting out the fires from the Russian drones without doing anything more.  I have to admit I wondered "Why a 2-week deadline?".

I do note that a major difference between Russia and Ukraine is that today's strikes by Ukraine were clearly against the military.  They could have struck deep in major Russian cities instead, hitting power stations, shopping areas, and apartments, just as it seems Russia has been doing.  Of course, in such a case, Russia would have come to the talks with its people strongly against Ukraine.  Now, the Russian people may just be questioning the war and Putin.

Considering these strikes were against the military, and apparently quite successful, I have to admire the Ukrainians for this.

The implications of this kind of attack against a country (say, the US) in a Pearl Harbor type surprise attack or a terrorist attack is concerning.  What if a terrorist group attacked one or several major civilian airports in this fashion?

The implications of this attack on the risk to NATO countries is interesting.  The German defense chief just warned that Russia might attack a NATO country in 4 years.  I should defer to Goose, but, perhaps naively, I suspect this attack significantly reduced that risk.  It doesn't reduce the number of tanks or shells that Russia is stockpiling (per that article) but it does weaken the air cover for any attack.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 06-01-2025

Good point about the benefits of plausible deniability for the US.  If the US had known but did nothing to stop it, we’d get an earful from the Russians.  If we tried to stop it and failed, we’d look weak, and if we succeeded, you can bet word would have leaked out about how the US is tying one of Ukraines arms behind its back.

Apparently one of the bases hit was in Siberia.  That has to be disconcerting.

And while hitting Russia’s bombers gave Ukraine the largest bang for the buck (while I’m sure there aren’t as many hits as the Ukrainians allege, if it’s true that they destroyed even half as many as the 40 $100 million bombers were destroyed they claim to have, that’s a multi-billion dollar hit to the Russian war machine in the span of an afternoon), I’m sure Ukranian planners are thinking of how to implement a similar plan on arm and fuel depots, munitions factories, and other war infrastructure.  Who needs 500 km range Taurus missiles when you can just drive a swarm of drones to within 1 km of the target and let them loose.

Last comment, OPEC (aka, Saudi Arabia) agreed to increase oil production by another 400 mm barrels.  That can’t be good for oil prices and thus the Russian economy.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-01-2025

https://x.com/DAlperovitch/status/1929264612723102004

Quote:Given that Ukrainian drones that attacked Russian strategic bombers today used Ardupilot over 4G/LTE comms, I would expect FSB to start filtering MavLink drone control protocol (which is unencrypted) within Russian telcos soon. It likely is not a difficult addition to SORM

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-01-2025

(06-01-2025, 02:11 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://x.com/DAlperovitch/status/1929264612723102004

Quote:Given that Ukrainian drones that attacked Russian strategic bombers today used Ardupilot over 4G/LTE comms, I would expect FSB to start filtering MavLink drone control protocol (which is unencrypted) within Russian telcos soon. It likely is not a difficult addition to SORM

The protocol is by itself unencrypted, but nothing prevents Ukraine from overlaying an encryption layer on top of it. That would make it unrecognizable. The packet length could also be randomized to remove that signature. I am unaware of any definite information that Ukraine used Ardupilot software in this attack. It would not be totally amazing if they did. They have been playing with it for quite a while. I did find these https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=IokyotAGbJI  https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/war-in-ukraine-contd.319524/page-401#google_vignette. 4G supports 5 to 100 megabit transfer rates. That is enough for HD video. This is a feasible approach to the problem. Network delays would probably make precision drone control impossible, but that isn't required to hit a stationary, large target. In fact, once the drone is properly targeted no control would be necessary. I doubt these airbases are in GPS denied territory. If they are in GPS denied area then the drone would need to be periodically corrected until it was close enough.

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(06-01-2025, 11:58 AM)M T Wrote:  

(06-01-2025, 10:34 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Apparently, the U.S. was not told in advance about this operation. I wouldn’t have expected them to.

However, no doubt this was triggered by the possibility of a cease-fire in the near future, just as was Russia's massive number of drone attacks over night and in the last week.  The optimist in me believes this signifies that both countries believe something may change soon.  Both sides may have gone all in just before the talks, and the "2 week" deadline.

FWIW, I doubt that a possibility of a cease-fire was a significant consideration :-). If anything, IMO it was somewhat the opposite. Putin and Russia wants to demonstrate to Ukraine that Russia can pound them into submission. The hope is that Ukrainian morale will collapse or that they will economically be unable to fight anymore. Of course if they are willing to surrender now, that is fine too. It would be a unilateral cease fire by Ukraine. Ukraine on the other hand wanted to demonstrate that they could strike back heavily and that they are far from done. Both the Ukrainian and Russian strikes have actual kinetic effects that are important. They also both have internal and external political objectives. The external one is to demonstrate the combatant isn't giving up on the war and the internal one (especially in Ukraine) is to lift the internal morale.

Quote:One never knows. This seems to be an operation that the US would not want to have prior specific knowledge of.  Even if the US wasn't told, I could believe maybe the US knew something was in process.   It would be foolish to think Ukraine was simply putting out the fires from the Russian drones without doing anything more.  I have to admit I wondered "Why a 2-week deadline?".

As far as the "two week" comment by the administration, CNN had a piece on exactly that showing the president repeatedly using that same time estimate for all sorts of things, going back to 2024. I wouldn't assume this particular occasion is any different.

Quote:I do note that a major difference between Russia and Ukraine is that today's strikes by Ukraine were clearly against the military.  They could have struck deep in major Russian cities instead, hitting power stations, shopping areas, and apartments, just as it seems Russia has been doing.  Of course, in such a case, Russia would have come to the talks with its people strongly against Ukraine.  Now, the Russian people may just be questioning the war and Putin.

Considering these strikes were against the military, and apparently quite successful, I have to admire the Ukrainians for this.

Agree. These were definitely "legitimate" targets.

Quote:The implications of this kind of attack against a country (say, the US) in a Pearl Harbor type surprise attack or a terrorist attack is concerning.  What if a terrorist group attacked one or several major civilian airports in this fashion?

The implications of this attack on the risk to NATO countries is interesting.  The German defense chief just warned that Russia might attack a NATO country in 4 years.  I should defer to Goose, but, perhaps naively, I suspect this attack significantly reduced that risk.  It doesn't reduce the number of tanks or shells that Russia is stockpiling (per that article) but it does weaken the air cover for any attack.

This attack slightly reduced the number of strategic assets that Russia could deploy against NATO countries. Russia launching ALCMs against military targets in the NATO countries is definitely a threat. It isn't anywhere near the foremost one however. This attack by Ukraine had no effect on "air cover" as such since these aircraft do not provide that capability. They are offensive weapons whose lifetime in a conventional war with NATO will be very short.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 06-01-2025

You’ve been given free access to this article from The Economist as a gift. You can open the link five times within seven days. After that it will expire.

An astonishing raid deep inside Russia rewrites the rules of war
https://economist.com/europe/2025/06/01/an-astonishing-raid-deep-inside-russia-rewrites-the-rules-of-war?giftId=f6f6aa7a-ed7e-4b8b-966f-828d10813d01&utm_campaign=gifted_article

(Should be gifted)

Major kudos to the Ukrainians… the amount of thought that went into this was astounding.

Quote:The source described the operation as a multi-stage chess move, with the Russians first encouraged to move more of their planes to particular bases by Ukrainian strikes on other ones. Three days before the attack, dozens of planes had moved to the Olenya airfield in Murmansk province, according to reports published at the time. It was precisely here that the most damage was done.

If there really are “fewer than 90 operational Tu-22, Tu-95 and newer Tu-160s in total”, then Ukraine might have single-handedly taken out a third or more of the Russian fleet. NATO owes the Ukrainians a huuuuuuge thank you.

Also, the victims included “rare and extremely expensive A-50 early-warning planes (Russia’s equivalent of the AWACS)”

There’s a word of caution at the end about how this could potentially be the equivalent of Sinop (unlikely, but nations are fickle), and of course it highlights our own vulnerabilities.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-01-2025

Quote:I am unaware of any definite information that Ukraine used Ardupilot software in this attack. It would not be totally amazing if they did.

The released videos had Ardupilot UI. Ukraine could have spoofed it somehow I suppose, and it also doesn't mean it was the only control method used.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 06-01-2025

Best quote I've seen so far...

Quote:Even more pithy was a tweet from the quarterly Business Ukraine journal, which proudly proclaimed "It turns out Ukraine does have some cards after all. Today Zelensky played the King of Drones."

- BBC

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