Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-08-2025

(08-08-2025, 06:02 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  How long until the evacuation is carried out by a drone?

BC

Ukraine has already done that, using ground ROVs. It hasn't worked well so far as the ROV has all the same vulnerabilities a human operated one does. Using the ROV prevents additional casualties in the care team as part of the evacuation but the patient often was killed.

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My guess is that the administration has been totally unable to move Putin from any of his previous demands. It will be the exact same set it was months ago when this "peace process" started. Many of these demands are known to be unacceptable to Ukraine. The Ukraine situation has become an embarrassment to the administration, so they intend to declare "victory" and give Ukraine a "take it or leave it" ultimatum. If Ukraine does not accept, the administration will blame Ukraine and wash its hands of the war. It is pretty easy to make a "deal" when you give your opponent 100% of what they asked for. The tariffs on India and the like were too much of an issue for the administration to endure for even a few weeks. I hope I am wrong about all this, but ...

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-08-2025

Yeah, I get that, but it is better than leaving the injured to die on the battlefield, and, as you point out, doesn’t leave the Medivac folks sitting ducks.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-08-2025

(08-08-2025, 07:21 PM)Goose Wrote:  My guess is that the administration has been totally unable to move Putin from any of his previous demands. It will be the exact same set it was months ago when this "peace process" started. Many of these demands are known to be unacceptable to Ukraine. The Ukraine situation has become an embarrassment to the administration, so they intend to declare "victory" and give Ukraine a "take it or leave it" ultimatum. If Ukraine does not accept, the administration will blame Ukraine and wash its hands of the war. It is pretty easy to make a "deal" when you give your opponent 100% of what they asked for. The tariffs on India and the like were too much of an issue for the administration to endure for even a few weeks. I hope I am wrong about all this, but ...

That it's being held on US soil, and without the involvement of Ukraine, is unusual and I don't think portends well for Ukraine.

I recently visited Sitka, Alaska to go fishing and while there took a tour of the former Russian Orthodox Bishop's residence. There is also an onion domed church in the middle of town. Interesting place to visit. Putin would love the optics, though I don't think the accomodations in town are up to snuff for a presidential summit.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 08-08-2025

(08-08-2025, 03:40 PM)Mick Wrote:  

(08-08-2025, 03:17 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  https://www.wsj.com/world/putin-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-proposal-0021453b?st=rzBCqb&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

I wouldn’t trust what Putin says any further than I could throw it, but it is worth reporting.  Apparently Trump will meet with Putin next week in Alaska, per a headline that just flashed on my screen as I was typing this.

BC

Today is supposedly the deadline for Putin, right?

Yes, the deadline is passed and all there is is a planned meeting. That plan is already a Putin win since Ukraine will not be there as Trump supposedly required. Trump talked about dividing Ukraine up between them like it was a bag of marbles to be split by two bullies.

Maybe Putin will suggest a Gaza-like solution?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 08-09-2025

(08-08-2025, 12:24 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Dune buggy with 9 Robocops inside makes sense to me.  I don't understand putting 9 humans in there, but I know nothing.

As things stand now, putting any humans in that Dune Buggy is stupid. Dumping the Humvee makes sense, but an unarmored dune buggy makes even less sense. Now if you do as the Russians now seem inclined to do, put every solider on his own moped and send him off has certain advantages. One drone vs one moped is a better deal for the attacker than 1 drone versus 9 attackers in an unarmored suv.

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(08-08-2025, 06:02 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  How long until the evacuation is carried out by a drone?

BC

Probably closer than you think, but still a combat medic can do a lot to save the life of a wounded comrade, but once you stabilize things you still have to get the wounded out.  I do not yet see that all being done by robots.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 08-09-2025

A quick frontline stabiliization followed by a drone medevac could be a great option for a certain grade of injury.  I do like the idea of drones as resupply logistics as well.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 08-09-2025

(08-09-2025, 01:13 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  A quick frontline stabiliization followed by a drone medevac could be a great option for a certain grade of injury.  I do like the idea of drones as resupply logistics as well.

If that hasn't happened it will soon.  Saw Ukraine is now putting air to air missiles on nice slow crop dusters to go drone hunting.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 08-09-2025

(08-09-2025, 03:23 PM)GK3 Wrote:  

(08-09-2025, 01:13 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  A quick frontline stabiliization followed by a drone medevac could be a great option for a certain grade of injury.  I do like the idea of drones as resupply logistics as well.

If that hasn't happened it will soon.  Saw Ukraine is now putting air to air missiles on nice slow crop dusters to go drone hunting.

A scarier situation is how many Patriot Missiles we have, versus how many we need and how many more we probably need.  This article is a bit sobering:
https://www.businessinsider.com/production-of-patriot-missiles-surging-demand-exceptionally-high-2025-8
While I know very little about the capabilities of the Patriot, I do know it isn't cheap.  If you opponent can make more offensive missiles than you can make defensive missiles it isn't a good situation.  It seems to me that we need a much cheaper solution for many situations and leave the Patriot to defend against the bigger missles.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-11-2025

Russia has made a bit of a breakthrough in Donetsk. Small recon groups on motorbikes have infiltrated ~20km past the front "line". In reality, there is no true manned line given manpower shortages. Russia is trying to exploit and solidify this breakthrough while Ukraine tries to hunt down the infiltrating forces.

A bad development, particularly poorly timed with regards to this upcoming Trump/Putin summit, which is probably not a coincidence.

Also, for some reason Trump is going to visit Russian territory from the Alaska summit?

https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1954956688706183250

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 08-11-2025

(08-11-2025, 12:04 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Russia has made a bit of a breakthrough in Donetsk. Small recon groups on motorbikes have infiltrated ~20km past the front "line". In reality, there is no true manned line given manpower shortages. Russia is trying to exploit and solidify this breakthrough while Ukraine tries to hunt down the infiltrating forces.

A bad development, particularly poorly timed with regards to this upcoming Trump/Putin summit, which is probably not a coincidence.

Also, for some reason Trump is going to visit Russian territory from the Alaska summit?

https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1954956688706183250

This isn't surprising, but a hundred guys on motorbikes will die before they get too far if the other side has any significant amount of drones. They do not control the land they are riding through but it makes good press. I do not think Ukraine will accept any deal that Trump proposes if it means giving up anything. I am not sure we are the big player in this deal that we think we are.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 08-11-2025

Have you not seen Steven Segal movies?  Just one guy on a motorcycle can take out an entire army.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 08-11-2025

I recently saw Rambo: First Blood on TV.  Some movies are just timeless.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 08-12-2025

(08-11-2025, 10:10 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Have you not seen Steven Segal movies?  Just one guy on a motorcycle can take out an entire army.

Given Segal's current girth, I'd say that's still probably true, as long as you put him in a B-21 and drop him on the opposing army. Gravity will do the rest.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 08-12-2025

(08-12-2025, 06:45 AM)Mick Wrote:  

(08-11-2025, 10:10 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Have you not seen Steven Segal movies?  Just one guy on a motorcycle can take out an entire army.

Given Segal's current girth, I'd say that's still probably true, as long as you put him in a B-21 and drop him on the opposing army. Gravity will do the rest.

\
That would probably be called a War Crime :)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-15-2025

Seems like Ukraine has been able to effectively counterattack and bottle up the Russian infiltration I mentioned a few days ago near Pokrovsk. Well timed to negate Russian claims of important breakthroughs on the eve of the Trump-Putin summit.

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1956408244462620922

Below is a video of a drone droppped munition targeting a Russian soldier on a motorbike, the sort of infiltration that opened up this salient. Probably this captures the nature of the fighting along the front- not a well manned trench system like in WW1, but large unmanned gaps separated by pickets of a few soldiers, with drones patrolling these gaps.

https://x.com/markito0171/status/1956425450768461840

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 08-15-2025

Can we go back 30 years?  The world seemed much safer then.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-15-2025

More video, from Ukrainian 93rd Brigade, reducing the Russian breakthrough northeast of Pokrovsk.

About 13 seconds in there is footage of an unmanned ground vehicle with some sort of mounted gun engaging Russian positions.
 
https://x.com/93OMBr1/status/1956450316968226896

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 08-15-2025

No cease fire yet.  No increase in secondary tariffs...  Moscow trumps the US President's threats.

"Next time in Moscow?"  - Uh, I guess that means the Ukrainian President won't be invited.

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(08-15-2025, 06:26 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  More video, from Ukrainian 93rd Brigade, reducing the Russian breakthrough northeast of Pokrovsk.

About 13 seconds in there is footage of an unmanned ground vehicle with some sort of mounted gun engaging Russian positions.
 
https://x.com/93OMBr1/status/1956450316968226896

I don't understand the language, but I'm guessing those were two sets of POWs.  Aren't there rules about publishing such pictures?
In the first group, those were young boys on the left.  Possibly under 18.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-15-2025

(08-15-2025, 07:22 PM)M T Wrote:  I don't understand the language, but I'm guessing those were two sets of POWs.  Aren't there rules about publishing such pictures?
In the first group, those were young boys on the left.  Possibly under 18.

Some organizations, I think Human Rights Watch and the Red Cross, have spoke out against the practice, stating it's a violation of the Geneva Convention, specifically the bolded section below.

Quote:Art 13. Prisoners of war must at all times be humanely treated. Any unlawful act or omission by the Detaining Power causing death or seriously endangering the health of a prisoner of war in its custody is prohibited, and will be regarded as a serious breach of the present Convention. In particular, no prisoner of war may be subjected to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are not justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the prisoner concerned and carried out in his interest.

Likewise, prisoners of war must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity.

Ukrainians would say the Geneva Convention has not protected Ukrainian POWs from being castrated or murdered, and that many or all Russian soldiers would not qualify for protection, either as soldiers in an unlawful war or as mercenaries, who are not accorded protection under the Geneva Convention.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-16-2025

(08-09-2025, 08:10 PM)GK3 Wrote:  A scarier situation is how many Patriot Missiles we have, versus how many we need and how many more we probably need.  This article is a bit sobering:
https://www.businessinsider.com/production-of-patriot-missiles-surging-demand-exceptionally-high-2025-8

It might make you feel a bit better to know this quote from the article is somewhat false

Quote:Air defenders tend to need to fire two or three interceptors to reliably take out one incoming threat,

That hasn't been true for many years. When the Patriot ABM capability was first introduced, the kill probability of a single missile was estimated to be 85%. That wasn't considered high enough, so "policy" was fire two missiles at each ballistic missile target. This increased the kill probability to 98%. Today the missiles are better, the radar is better, and most importantly the software is better. The software "knows" when it is "necessary" to fire two missiles. Often it is not. In some cases the software can delay launching a second missile until it determines the first one will probably miss.
 
The article points out the vastly increased demand for Patriot interceptor missiles. The article does not attempt to answer the question "for what purpose?". I now have to bring out my broken record :-). The Patriot is a point defense system. It was originally designed to defend critical military formations (like division headquarters) from air attack, mostly "leakers" that the USAF somehow let through. The Russian preoccupation with their FROG program led to the addition of a rudimentary anti-ballistic missile capability. The SCUD missiles used by Iraq were direct descendants of the original Russian FROG efforts. The Patriot did OK (but not perfectly, Dhahran Saudi Arabia) in protecting US formations from SCUDS. It could not protect Israel from SCUDS. Patriot is a point defense system. This situation led to two things. First, great improvement of the Patrioit ABM capability. Second, the creation of a "new" Army ABM program, at the time called the "Theater High Altitude Air Defense" (THAAD).
 
As one can tell from the "Theater" in the name, the THAAD was intended to defend not just a point but rather an entire theater of war. The limitations of Patriot were obvious and caused embarrassment to the Army. Patriot is a "tier 1" missile defense system oriented toward tactical (relatively short range) ballistic missiles. Tier 1 systems shoot down incoming missiles in the final engagement phase. These targets must be attacking the Tier 1 system or close to it. Subject to velocity limitations tier 1 systems (like Patriot) can of course engage incoming missiles that are longer range, not just "short" range. However, the engagement window is necessarily very limited. The target will be going downhill very fast. THAAD has the capability to engage longer range ballistic missiles when they are near their maximum altitude. This necessitates an interceptor with much greater range capability. It is a Tier 2 (middle tier) system. The THAAD also has "shoot, look, shoot" capability (if the geometry is permissive) that allows re-engaging a target that was not killed with the first shot. As a FYI, the SM-3 and SM-6 with the SPY-1 or SPY-6 is a Tier 3 system.
 
Intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) must of necessity follow a higher ballistic trajectory in order to achieve greater range. If these missiles can be intercepted throughout their entire descent The theory was that the THAAD could intercept these missiles quite far from the launch point of the interceptor missile, and thereby be more of an area defense weapon (as opposed to a point defense weapon). In the end, geometry triumphed and it wasn't possible to build a truly theater-wide system. If the THAAD was in the exact center of the theater it would almost work. The problem is that in e.g. Israel or Guam the threat is primarily from one quadrant. The rest of the "coverage" is not useful. That fact was belatedly realized and the name changed to Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (preserving the acronym). Obviously the THAAD is a significant improvement over the point defense system offered by the Patriot in situations where IRBMs will be used, as by Iran against Israel. Ukraine isn't in that category however, as Russia can do all the damage they want by simply using Iskander-M SRBM. Is the THAAD (https://www.globalsecurity.org/space/systems/thaad.htm) a "failure"? We don't yet know, but 150 of them were supposedly launched defending Israel.
 
Returning to the question of how many Patriot missiles the US (or any other country) "needs", it is difficult to actually explain the situation. The number and character of SRBMs has not greatly changed in the past 5 years. What has changed is the probability of their use. In the past the idea that Russia would be firing literally hundreds of SRBMs against a "European" state such as Ukraine was unthinkable on many levels. Ukraine has been continually requesting more Patriot batteries and especially more patriot missiles. Other nations, seeing what is happening in Ukraine, want to have access to "enough" Patriot missiles to "defend" their population centers and economy from a similar missile attack.
 
The reality is that no nation has ever been "defeated" by SRBMs. Ukraine has suffered greatly from SRBM strikes. Ukraine has suffered even more from air-breathing drone strikes. This air-breathing cruise missile/drone strikes are more of a problem because they outnumber SRBM strikes by at least 10 to 1. Exact figures are hard to come by. Ukraine has improvised defenses against these lower-tier threats. Russia has improved the ability of their SRBMs to evade Patriot missiles. The "result" has been a multi-year interval where Ukraine has endured ongoing SRBM strikes by Russia. Russia has not and will not defeat Ukraine militarily with SRBM strikes. Ukraine may however be politically unable to endure what appears to be an endless rain of SRBMs with no effective defense.
 
Recently Israel and the US attempted to defend Israeli airspace against a more powerful SRBM/IRBM/drone attack by Iran. The Israeli/US collation has the ability to neutralize air-breathing drone/missile attacks and did so. Ukraine has no such capability. Despite that, the Iranian SRBM/IRBM attack was able to inflict damage on Israel that, while militarily nugatory, was politically unacceptable enough to cause Israel to accept a cease-fire. At the time of the cease-fire, Iran was estimated to have 1,500 or fewer missiles in inventory that could reach Israel. Iran was capable of producing only a small number of missiles going forward. These 1,500 missiles were scattered all over Iran and were of unknown provenance. Israel had also destroyed many of the TELs used to launch these missiles. It is improbable that Iran could ever get even half of them into the air. Yet it appears that Iran was able to continue launching offensive missiles long enough that Israel lost confidence in their ability to destroy all the launchers/missiles rapidly enough to prevent unacceptable damage to Israel.
 
Unlike the Ukrainian situation, Israel had a defensive plan to counter incoming SRBM/IRBM missile attacks. That plan was to use defensive missiles (David's Sling, Arrow, US THAAD missiles, a few US Patriots) to minimize damage while the IAF destroyed Iran's ability to launch the offensive missiles. It appears Israel was unable to accomplish that mission as quickly as desired. The inevitable defensive failures were starting to add up. However, the damage done to Israel was "trivial". Yet Israel abandoned their golden opportunity to render Iran defenseless (no more missiles to shoot) without even a whimper. Ukraine has no parallel ability to exhaust Russian IRBM stocks.
 
The simple fact is that a point defense system like Patriot will always "leak", and it will leak more the longer a missile based war continues. It also cannot defend a country because (and for many other reasons) it can always be overwhelmed by numbers, even if one has all the Patriot missiles one could want. Defense will never be any more than a mitigating weapon that can protect critical military infrastructure. It cannot defend a nation. In the end, you have to kill the archer, or drive him far enough from your borders that his SRBMs will not reach your population centers. THAT is what the EU and other countries should be ensuring they can accomplish. If they can accomplish that, no nation (Russia included) will start a war of attrition using SRBMs because they will inevitably lose. If the aggressor believes it can become a war of attrition, it might make sense to try. Any other plan is folly. No number of Patriot missiles, however large, can defend against an continuous, interminable missile barrage. Israel had the right idea. They unfortunately underestimated their opponent/over estimated their own offensive capability/lacked the political will.

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