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Chryst will start tomorrow - Printable Version

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Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - CardinalSagehen - 10-06-2017

I’m floored by this.  Really hoped for it to go the other way. 

Who took the reps with the 1st team this week?  Both, I guess. 

Who will be able to play loose?  Neither, I guess.

If humans weren’t involved, and if this were a lesser opponent, one could think of this as a good A/B test to find our best QB, holding the game situation and the defense constant.  But humans are involved, we have very little margin for error in this game, and the sample size will be small no matter what we do.  In the end, the eye test has to matter and apparently it’s inconclusive to Shaw. 

I’m trying to stay open-minded here, trusting Coach Shaw... trying really hard. I’m at least curious to see what happens.  Chryst could surprise us. 





Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - cardcrimson - 10-06-2017

(10-06-2017, 12:59 PM)Cardinal Sagehen link Wrote:I’m trying to stay open-minded here, trusting Coach Shaw... trying really hard. I’m at least curious to see what happens.  Chryst could surprise us.

Like rise from the proverbial dead? It's happened before.

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - washingtonismoney - 10-06-2017

I meant what BostonCard said. Total confidence would've said "Chryst starts." Saying you're going to play both means you think...it's close. But really, if you think it's close, you're really admitting you have no confidence in Chryst. As Shaw himself was at pains to admit, Chryst had a great starting record (which is a dumb stat but I'll have forbearance) and a much longer record of experience. Fine, all well and good. But if you think it's close because Costello played 1.75-2 games well -- not spectacularly, not Second Coming of Luck, but well -- then what does that mean?

Well, it means -- even if you're unwilling to admit it to yourself -- that you actually have no confidence in Chryst, if you're willing to overturn all that based on two games' evidence. Ergo, make the switch!

If Luck got injured and Brett Nottingham replaced him and looked great, Shaw would've said something like, "We're really excited about Brett's future but thankfully Andrew's back and ready to roll."

If Hogan got injured and Chryst stepped in and looked good, Shaw would've said the same thing. I doubt many people would've questioned him either.

Now obviously there's a plenty of space between "Hogan" and "an acceptable QB." It's possible Shaw evaluates Chryst somewhere in that space. It's possible Shaw is not quite sure what Costello's upside is. Coaching's a tough business. Still, that there's even doubt is a determinative indicator. Go with Costello.

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - BostonCard - 10-06-2017

(10-06-2017, 12:50 PM)FarmBoy link Wrote:As someone who believes Costello to be superior, my worst case scenario is both players getting a few possessions and Chryst plays at the peak of his ability and Costello has an off day, cementing Chryst's place as QB1.

Sounds a bit like epistemic closure.  An alternative way of looking at the same data is that Chryst is actually a better QB than Costello, and your assumption that Costello wsa superior is wrong.

I am inclined to agree with you that Costello is superior.  But if Chryst and Costello were to both get a few positions and Chryst were to play better, I would re-examine my assumptions.  It would probably be too few datapoints to conclude, categorically, that Chryst was the better QB, but it would certainly lead me to question my a priori assumptions.

The best QB given their respective performances vs Utah = The probability of observing their performances against Utah given their respective quality x Their underlying quality

(Or, posteriors = priors x data)

BC

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - winflop - 10-06-2017

(10-06-2017, 12:59 PM)Cardinal Sagehen link Wrote:Chryst could surprise us.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - dabigv13 - 10-06-2017

The only way this could make sense is some sort of Face/Off situation has happened and Shaw needs to keep everybody confused.

Otherwise, this is f*cking dumb.

Chryst has has plenty of opportunities, and the results were average at best, and often bad. Hard to expect that will be any different tomorrow.

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - BostonCard - 10-06-2017

(10-06-2017, 01:03 PM)winflop link Wrote:[quote author=Cardinal Sagehen link=topic=17595.msg204423#msg204423 date=1507319970]
Chryst could surprise us.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
[/quote]

That sounds like what Shaw is doing: hoping for the best (that Chryst shows he is as good as Shaw believes), while planning for the worst (Chryst has another sub-par game and Costello has to come in).

BC

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - winflop - 10-06-2017

(10-06-2017, 01:02 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:If Luck got injured and Brett Nottingham replaced him and looked great, Shaw would've said something like, "We're really excited about Brett's future but thankfully Andrew's back and ready to roll."

If Hogan got injured and Chryst stepped in and looked good, Shaw would've said the same thing. I doubt many people would've questioned him either.

Chryst is nowhere near either of these guys, even in their first seasons much less their second ones which may be more comparable at least in Hogan's case.

Nunes is probably the only comp in the Harbaugh-Shaw era.

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - Goose - 10-06-2017

My worst-case outcome is that they both play poorly, we can't run, and lose. :) Almost as bad would be that they play in a manner that makes it hard to distinguish who is better and we lose. If Chryst actually outplays Costello, great. If Costello actually plays much better than Chryst, great. It is the other possibilities that would be unfortunate.

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - dabigv13 - 10-06-2017

I'm trying to polish this turd, and at best,  this means Utah has to watch more film than if Costello was named starter.

Maybe Chryst comes in for a scripted drive, and rides off into the sunset for Costello to take over. This seems unlikely,  but whatever.

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - washingtonismoney - 10-06-2017

(10-06-2017, 01:05 PM)winflop link Wrote:Chryst is nowhere near either of these guys, even in their first seasons much less their second ones which may be more comparable at least in Hogan's case.

Nunes is probably the only comp in the Harbaugh-Shaw era.

Yes, that is exactly the point of my argument.

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - Bruce Wang - 10-06-2017

(10-06-2017, 12:06 PM)JJJ link Wrote:deja vu (Hogan @ Colorado)?  ???

...is more similar to the UCLA game.  Costello has shown more than enough to deserve the starting job.

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - Snorlax94 - 10-06-2017

(10-06-2017, 01:04 PM)dabigv link Wrote:The only way this could make sense is some sort of Face/Off situation has happened and Shaw needs to keep everybody confused.

Otherwise, this is f*cking dumb.

Chryst has has plenty of opportunities, and the results were average at best, and often bad. Hard to expect that will be any different tomorrow.
Along these lines, I think this announcement has 4 possible meanings:
1) that Chryst is actually much better than we think. Maybe he really did throw amazingly all week before sd state and just had the worst day of his career
2) that Costello is much worse than I think, it's been all smoke and mirrors using only a fraction if the playbook, and with more starts, he would eventually get exposed
3) Costello really is the better choice, and Shaw should (will eventually someday) recalibrate how he weights ability to execute the full playbook vs x-factor ability to improvise
4) Shaw is just messing with people's heads and actually gave Costello almost all the reps this week

I am not assuming #3. I am just disappointed because if Shaw had announced Costello as the starter, it would mean he was really ready and had unmistakably pulled ahead.

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - washingtonismoney - 10-06-2017

2) and 3) strike me as the most plausible interpretations of what happened here. 1) is unlikely; we've seen Chryst now over 1.5 years. We know Chryst is the guy who:

1) can't beat Ryan Burns out in a competition
2) has only completed more than 60% of passes once in seven years of play
3) has numerous faults that are readily visually apparent (tendency to skip passes off the ground in both 2016-17; inability to evade rush in 2017; etc.)

I suppose it's theoretically possible that the turnaround is imminent, though I can't think of any historical examples of a QB being mediocre for a long period and suddenly reversing it and being good. (Chryst's 2015 YPA is...6.56. His 2016 YPA is ... 6.65. His 2017 YPA is...6.79.)

It's extremely plausible that Costello isn't better than this level. But we've seen some evidence that suggests he isn't, and of course it's possible his true level is even better than his first two games. Gamble on upside.

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - BostonCard - 10-06-2017

(10-06-2017, 01:34 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:2) and 3) strike me as the most plausible interpretations of what happened here. 1) is unlikely; we've seen Chryst now over 1.5 years. We know Chryst is the guy who:

1) can't beat Ryan Burns out in a competition
2) has only completed more than 60% of passes once in seven years of play
3) has numerous faults that are readily visually apparent (tendency to skip passes off the ground in both 2016-17; inability to evade rush in 2017; etc.)

I suppose it's theoretically possible that the turnaround is imminent, though I can't think of any historical examples of a QB being mediocre for a long period and suddenly reversing it and being good. (Chryst's 2015 YPA is...6.56. His 2016 YPA is ... 6.65. His 2017 YPA is...6.79.)

It's extremely plausible that Costello isn't better than this level. But we've seen some evidence that suggests he isn't, and of course it's possible his true level is even better than his first two games. Gamble on upside.

Let's back up a bit.  Chryst did beat out Burns, eventually.  He didn't beat out Burns initially, but initially Burns actually played well to start last year (against Kansas State: 14/18, 8.7 ypa, 1 TD, 0 INT).  His performance against USC was acceptable (and we won).  His performance against UCLA was a red flag, until he led the winning touchdown drive.  It was only in back-to-back losses against Washington and Washington State where the bottom fell out for him and he was never the same.  His fate was clinched in horrible performances against Notre Dame and Colorado.

Was "seven years" of play a typeo, or are you referring also to his high school career?  In any case, I think there are legitimate questions about his accuracy, and you are correct, the fact that he seems to struggle to make even open throws accurately is a red flag.  Then again, that suggests somewhat of a mental rather than a physical limitation, and perhaps the staff thinks he can overcome it.

The inability to evade a rush seems more likely a result of his knee injury, since this wasn't much of an issue last year (or, was less of an issue than for his predecessor).

While my instinct is with yours; that over the course of eight full games in 2016 and 2017, against a variety of opponents, most of them with sub-par defenses, Chryst has played below-average for a QB.  I don't necessarily subscribe to the idea that the QB whose game you haven't seen is magically better than the one you have in place.  But based on the (albeit scant) evidence we have to date: two nearly full games for Costello, eight full games for Chryst, I think Costello is the better QB.  But again, with two full games under Burns' belt last year, comparing him to the eight games we've had of Chryst, one might have concluded that Burns is the better QB.

BC

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - ChicagoCard - 10-06-2017

How about on pocket presence alone. Chryst was less than good in that area against SDSU. Costello seemed better but maybe against lighter competition.

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - Bruce Wang - 10-06-2017

Given Costello's disappointing Spring Game performance, I wonder if he's one of those "when the lights are on" type players.  So maybe he doesn't look better than Chryst in practice.

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - washingtonismoney - 10-06-2017

(10-06-2017, 01:53 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Let's back up a bit.  Chryst did beat out Burns, eventually.  He didn't beat out Burns initially, but initially Burns actually played well to start last year (against Kansas State: 14/18, 8.7 ypa, 1 TD, 0 INT).  His performance against U$C was acceptable (and we won).  His performance against UCLA was a red flag, until he led the winning touchdown drive.  It was only in back-to-back losses against Washington and Washington State where the bottom fell out for him and he was never the same.  His fate was clinched in horrible performances against Votre Dame and Colorado.

True points there. Possible Burns looked really that sparkling in practice. Still, other plausible interpretation is that this reflects not-so-great performance from either. Not determinative on its own.

Quote:Was "seven years" of play a typeo, or are you referring also to his high school career?  In any case, I think there are legitimate questions about his accuracy, and you are correct, the fact that he seems to struggle to make even open throws accurately is a red flag.  Then again, that suggests somewhat of a mental rather than a physical limitation, and perhaps the staff thinks he can overcome it.

Was referring to his high school career, yes. Again, ordinarily I wouldn't put much stock in high school stats but my feeling is...when you have such a long track record of poor completion percentage, questions need to be asked.

Quote:The inability to evade a rush seems more likely a result of his knee injury, since this wasn't much of an issue last year (or, was less of an issue than for his predecessor).

Agreed, which is why I specified he couldn't evade the rush in 2017. On its own, maybe not a long-run concern but you add it with the other factors and...

Quote:While my instinct is with yours; that over the course of eight full games in 2016 and 2017, against a variety of opponents, most of them with sub-par defenses, Chryst has played below-average for a QB.  I don't necessarily subscribe to the idea that the QB whose game you haven't seen is magically better than the one you have in place.  But based on the (albeit scant) evidence we have to date: two nearly full games for Costello, eight full games for Chryst, I think Costello is the better QB.  But again, with two full games under Burns' belt last year, comparing him to the eight games we've had of Chryst, one might have concluded that Burns is the better QB.

Agree here too. We don't have enough evidence to conclusively say Costello is better than Burns (or, for that matter, Costello). On the other hand, it's also possible Costello is substantially better than either. (Whether that's because what Costello displayed in his first two games is his "true" level or whether it's because he's actually much better than his last two games.)

In other words it seems to me that there's a
... non-negligible chance he's worse than Burns/Chryst
... a decent chance he's on the same level
... a solid chance he's better, though not exceptionally so
... a decent chance he's way better

The distribution of odds clearly favors a switch to Costello.


Re: Chryst named starter - Extra Point - 10-06-2017

(10-06-2017, 12:12 PM)FarmBoy link Wrote:I hope David Shaw know something we don't...

I pretty sure he knows a lot more than anyone here!

Re: Chryst will start tomorrow - Goose - 10-06-2017

(10-06-2017, 01:53 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:The inability to evade a rush seems more likely a result of his knee injury, since this wasn't much of an issue last year (or, was less of an issue than for his predecessor).
While I certainly agree that his knee is probably the main reason he is a statue out there, it is also true that in 2016 he didn't face any good pass rush teams, except possibly UNC where, IMHO, he didn't look all that good. Against Arizona, he did get rushed a bit, and it seemed to really bother him. Then again, it was his first game.

Quote:While my instinct is with yours; that over the course of eight full games in 2016 and 2017, against a variety of opponents, most of them with sub-par defenses, Chryst has played below-average for a QB.  I don't necessarily subscribe to the idea that the QB whose game you haven't seen is magically better than the one you have in place.  But based on the (albeit scant) evidence we have to date: two nearly full games for Costello, eight full games for Chryst, I think Costello is the better QB.
I would agree. A lot of it is the "eye test". With Chryst, everything seems to be going in slow motion, while with Costello it seems to be going full speed ahead. However, that does tend to obscure some technical limitations that exist with Costello's game ATM. We may have more insight after seeing what happens against Utah.
Quote:But again, with two full games under Burns' belt last year, comparing him to the eight games we've had of Chryst, one might have concluded that Burns is the better QB.

BC
I think this is an excellent point. We tend to overlook these samples because we know what came next. I think that Washington basically destroyed Burns as a QB. It became like a golfer with the yips.  I think it entirely possible that at the start of 2016, Burns was the better QB. We can't know, but the coaches thought so. Unless some miracle happens, I don't think Chryst is going to improve much. So let's hope Costello does!