Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21

Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - Printable Version

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RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - Farm93 - 06-07-2021

bnarver - More amazing work.

Baseball's will get at least 50 points, if I read the chart correctly.

So Stanford will get no less than 1137.75, if we assume the NACDA won't use new point methods this year for the yet to be released sports.
Stanford has point potential in baseball (hopefully), and in WOTF if they can manage to get more than 50 points (possible).

Seems like the task now is to understand which schools have any (realistic) path to exceed 1137.75
A lot of the best NACDA contenders are out of baseball now, so the task really comes down to MOTF & WOTF.
In theory, there are 200 points available, but most of the schools in the table are not strong in OTF.

UCLA & tOSU are more than 200 points away, so they are out.
Florida is 166 points away, so they would need a good week in both WOTF & MOTF. They got 163.5 points from OTF in 2019.
UNC doesn't need much, hitting that cap helps. One or two good results in T&F events could get be enough. They got from 56 points from OTF in 2019.

FWIW - I do wonder if some other schools could jump into the 1000+ range.
USC - They already have had good results (for them) this Spring AND could get lots of OTF points
Texas - #2 seed in baseball and a solid history in OTF.

Ultimately 1137.75 is not quite a clinching tally yet.
Stanford Baseball can get 14 more points by advancing to the Super Regional. That would help a lot.
1151.75 would realistically be too much for Florida, and would be at the upper bounds of what UNC could achieve.

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - BigEasyCard - 06-07-2021

(06-07-2021, 07:17 AM)Farm93 Wrote: bnarver - More amazing work.

Baseball's will get at least 50 points, if I read the chart correctly.

So Stanford will get no less than 1137.75, if we assume the NACDA won't use new point methods this year for the yet to be released sports.
Stanford has point potential in baseball (hopefully), and in WOTF if they can manage to get more than 50 points (possible).

Seems like the task now is to understand which schools have any (realistic) path to exceed 1137.75
A lot of the best NACDA contenders are out of baseball now, so the task really comes down to MOTF & WOTF.
In theory, there are 200 points available, but most of the schools in the table are not strong in OTF.

UCLA & tOSU are more than 200 points away, so they are out.
Florida is 166 points away, so they would need a good week in both WOTF & MOTF. They got 163.5 points from OTF in 2019.
UNC doesn't need much, hitting that cap helps. One or two good results in T&F events could get be enough. They got from 56 points from OTF in 2019.

FWIW - I do wonder if some other schools could jump into the 1000+ range.
USC - They already have had good results (for them) this Spring AND could get lots of OTF points
Texas - #2 seed in baseball and a solid history in OTF.

Ultimately 1137.75 is not quite a clinching tally yet.
Stanford Baseball can get 14 more points by advancing to the Super Regional. That would help a lot.
1151.75 would realistically be too much for Florida, and would be at the upper bounds of what UNC could achieve.

Thank you to both bnarver and Farm93 for moving the analysis forward.

If we replace M SW 48 points with M TEN 50 points we can adjust Stanford's total to 1,139.75.

Both Stanford and UNC are at 19 scoring sports, including some zeroes for required sports.

It's great to have Baseball still able to increase Stanford's Cup total.

Geaux Cardinal!

Using bnarver's total of 971.5, Florida is currently 168.25 points behind Stanford. They have scored in 16 sports so far, so all of their OTF points will count in their final Cup total.

Geaux Cardinal!

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - M T - 06-07-2021

(Set your font ("A") to Courier. Remove blanks at the end of lines. Or use the table generator)

Edit: Updated to reflect dropping 48 pts for M SW rather than 50 pts.
Edit: Updated to add Michigan spring scoring.
Edit: Added Texas

I will assume Stanford doesn't get any net points out of T&F. All our remaining points come from baseball.

As I understand it, if Stanford baseball loses today in the regional, they get 50 points. If they win, they get at least 64 points.
A baseball win today should just about clinch the Director's Cup.

If Stanford only gets 50 points from baseball, that's a total of 1137.75 1139.75, ahead of NC by 20 points. NC would have to get 26+20 points out of one team in Outdoor T&F. (For instance, assuming Stanford only gets 50 pts from baseball, if NC get 46 points in MT&F and <46 pts in WTF, then we tie. If NC get more than 46 in either, they beat Stanford. ) In 2019, NC got 56 points for 17th in W T&F. NC is ranked 45th in W T&F and 51st in M T&F. 30th place is worth about 43 points.

Florida needs 118.25 points in MTF & WTF beyond what Stanford gets in baseball. If Stanford only gets 50 points in baseball, then FL needs 168.25. That requires them to finish better than they are ranked (14th in M T&F (~ 60 points), 9th in W T&F (~ 69 points). In 2019 they were higher ranked than this year, finishing 2nd and 6th for a total of 163.5.

Michigan should not yet be dismissed. Before M&W T&F, they are just 107.25 behind Stanford's minimum score. They are currently ranked 20th in Men's T&F (~ 54 points) and 41 in Women's T&F (~ 30 points), or roughly 30 points behind. They'd have to finish higher than ranked

Note that UNC's lowest droppable points are as bnarvar said (26 pts in M SW). They also have 25 points in M BB & W BB, but those won't be dropped.

(06-07-2021, 12:04 AM)bnarver Wrote: Assuming I'm more accurate than my previous posts, here are the numbers I have for Spring and the total accumulated points

Sport    Stanford    UCLA     Florida N.Carolina Ohio St.    Michigan      Texas
   Place Pts Place Pts Place Pts Place Pts   Place Pts   Place Pts   Place Pts
Baseball    ?    ? 17   50       49 25 33   37.5 ?   ?
Beach volleyball    7   25    2   90
Women's golf    5   72.75 15   60       25 47.5                                           5 72.75
Men's golf 37   34.5                22 52    5   72.75                            25 49
Women's lacrosse 17 25 5  70     3   83
Men's lacrosse 3   83
Rowing    2   90        6   72                    4    80       1 100
Softball 17   50    5   78 9 64                                             9 64
(Net minus M SW    2)
Women's tennis 17   50   5   73   17 50     3   83      9    64      5 73 1 100
Men's tennis 17   50    33   25     1 100    9   64       9    64     17    50      3 83
Women's T&F          ?    ? ?    ?    ? ? ?    ? ?    ?    ? ?       ? ?
Men's T&F            ?    ? ?    ?    ? ? ?    ? ?    ?    ?     ?       ? ?
Men's VB
Women's water polo 3   55    2   90         5   60

Fall + Winter    770     413.75       563         696.5        652.5        769.5       558.25
Total   1087.75    879.75       971.5      1119.75    852.5       1032.5      1027.00
       1089.75

Only 19 sports count, so Stanford must drop the points for women's lacrosse, men's golf, and 1 of the 50 pointers (softball, women's tennis, or men's tennis). NACDA's scoring for this year has changed in some of the bracket sports, and my numbers may disagree in the end. UCLA does get 78 points for softball according to their scoring chart for baseball and softball. North Carolina has now reached the 15 optional sports limit, so any additional sports must exceed the 26 points they received for men's swimming. Their next lowest score was 48 points for women's cross country.

Sorry for the alignment of the numbers. They looked good before I posted it.

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - M T - 06-07-2021

I've updated my version of bnarver's table to include Michigan. They are within striking distance (107 points behind Stanford's minimum score). I didn't check for dropped scores, but, ignoring that, if they finish T&F as ranked, they'll be 30 points behind Stanford's minimum score.

While I think Stanford is in the driver's seat, esp. if baseball wins today, I wouldn't want to call the order of finish in the Director's Cup between UNC, Michigan, and Florida.
But if any of them outperform expectations in T&F, they could catch Stanford.

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - BigEasyCard - 06-07-2021

MT, very nice presentation of relevant scenarios. Also, very helpful edits of bnarver's results table.

Geaux Cardinal!

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - Farm93 - 06-07-2021

(06-07-2021, 09:27 AM)M T Wrote: I've updated my version of bnarver's table to include Michigan. They are within striking distance (107 points behind Stanford's minimum score). I didn't check for dropped scores, but, ignoring that, if they finish T&F as ranked, they'll be 30 points behind Stanford's minimum score.

While I think Stanford is in the driver's seat, esp. if baseball wins today, I wouldn't want to call the order of finish in the Director's Cup between UNC, Michigan, and Florida.
But if any of them outperform expectations in T&F, they could catch Stanford.

I still believe 1100+ is beyond Michigan's range.

Without tallies of Spring sports this is tricky, but historically USC, UCLA and Texas storm up the rankings in May and June. UCLA is too far back, but still worry about the other two. USC is capable of winning lots of OTF points. Texas has that OTF tally potential AND the chance to win baseball. So of all of the teams with frequent top 5 finishes I worry much more about the schools that could put up big OTF points (USC, Texas & Florida). Florida is almost too far back.

Without the re-introduction of a set of core sports and the reduction down to 19 from 20 sports, Stanford would win this 2020-2021 Cup rather easily.

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - teejers1 - 06-07-2021

(06-07-2021, 10:56 AM)Farm93 Wrote:
(06-07-2021, 09:27 AM)M T Wrote: I've updated my version of bnarver's table to include Michigan. They are within striking distance (107 points behind Stanford's minimum score). I didn't check for dropped scores, but, ignoring that, if they finish T&F as ranked, they'll be 30 points behind Stanford's minimum score.

While I think Stanford is in the driver's seat, esp. if baseball wins today, I wouldn't want to call the order of finish in the Director's Cup between UNC, Michigan, and Florida.
But if any of them outperform expectations in T&F, they could catch Stanford.
I still believe 1100+ is beyond Michigan's range.

Without tallies of Spring sports this is tricky, but historically USC, UCLA and Texas storm up the rankings in May and June. UCLA is too far back, but still worry about the other two. USC is capable of winning lots of OTF points. Texas has that OTF tally potential AND the chance to win baseball. So of all of the teams with frequent top 5 finishes I worry much more about the schools that could put up big OTF points (USC, Texas & Florida). Florida is almost too far back.

Without the re-introduction of a set of core sports and the reduction down to 19 from 20 sports, Stanford would win this 2020-2021 Cup rather easily.

How many people are feeling good about Stanford's chances in baseball this evening?

That melt down last night reminded me of the US Open Women's golf result yesterday. You could see the front-runner leaking oil and the end-result was almost inevitable by 17. Baseball and golf are different - in too many ways to count - of course, but I'm not liking Stanford's "mojo" in baseball right now (or the pitching prospects tonight). At all.

Hope the Cardinal surprise and blow the doors of UCI. (Agree with another poster who speculated that it might well take 10+ runs to win tonight).

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - BigEasyCard - 06-07-2021

Track and Field News just released their projections for the Women's meet, putting Florida Women at 9th. That would be good for 69 Cup points.

Details here:

TFN 2021 NCAA Outdoor Championships prediction: women | World-Track and Field Website

A more detailed article predicts Stanford to tie for 16th which would net about 7 Cup points after replacing one of the 50 point scores.

Details here:

2021 NCAA Women’s Formchart #4 — A Down-To-The-Wire 3-Way? - Track & Field News (trackandfieldnews.com)

Geaux Cardinal!

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - 76lsjumb - 06-07-2021

(06-07-2021, 11:12 AM)teejers1 Wrote:
(06-07-2021, 10:56 AM)Farm93 Wrote:
(06-07-2021, 09:27 AM)M T Wrote: I've updated my version of bnarver's table to include Michigan. They are within striking distance (107 points behind Stanford's minimum score). I didn't check for dropped scores, but, ignoring that, if they finish T&F as ranked, they'll be 30 points behind Stanford's minimum score.

While I think Stanford is in the driver's seat, esp. if baseball wins today, I wouldn't want to call the order of finish in the Director's Cup between UNC, Michigan, and Florida.
But if any of them outperform expectations in T&F, they could catch Stanford.
I still believe 1100+ is beyond Michigan's range.

Without tallies of Spring sports this is tricky, but historically USC, UCLA and Texas storm up the rankings in May and June. UCLA is too far back, but still worry about the other two. USC is capable of winning lots of OTF points. Texas has that OTF tally potential AND the chance to win baseball. So of all of the teams with frequent top 5 finishes I worry much more about the schools that could put up big OTF points (USC, Texas & Florida). Florida is almost too far back.

Without the re-introduction of a set of core sports and the reduction down to 19 from 20 sports, Stanford would win this 2020-2021 Cup rather easily.

How many people are feeling good about Stanford's chances in baseball this evening?

That melt down last night reminded me of the US Open Women's golf result yesterday. You could see the front-runner leaking oil and the end-result was almost inevitable by 17. Baseball and golf are different - in too many ways to count - of course, but I'm not liking Stanford's "mojo" in baseball right now (or the pitching prospects tonight). At all.

Hope the Cardinal surprise and blow the doors of UCI. (Agree with another poster who speculated that it might well take 10+ runs to win tonight).

"Mojo" is hard to predict. You could be right, but I take heart from the season series against Arizona, when we came back from a 20-2 obliteration to win the next game and the series. Also, we took 3 out of 4 from UCI earlier in the year, and, when you look at the last two games, UCI had a nightmare inning in their loss to us, then we had a nightmare inning in our loss to them... so it seems to me it's their turn again to have the nightmare inning, right?

I'm guessing that mojo will have less to do with it than which pitcher on which team has the game of his life tonight.

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - BigEasyCard - 06-07-2021

(06-07-2021, 11:56 AM)BigEasyCard Wrote: Track and Field News just released their projections for the Women's meet, putting Florida Women at 9th. That would be good for 69 Cup points.

Details here:

TFN 2021 NCAA Outdoor Championships prediction: women | World-Track and Field Website

A more detailed article predicts Stanford to tie for 16th which would net about 7 Cup points after replacing one of the 50 point scores.

Details here:

2021 NCAA Women’s Formchart #4 — A Down-To-The-Wire 3-Way? - Track & Field News (trackandfieldnews.com)

Geaux Cardinal!

On the Men's side, Track and Field News projects Florida to tie for 17th with three others. That would earn Florida about 55.5 Cup points. As of 6/2, no meet points projected for either Stanford or UNC. Details here:

2021 NCAA Men’s Formchart #4 — LSU Again Looks Unbeatable - Track & Field News (trackandfieldnews.com)

Geaux Cardinal!

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - BobK - 06-07-2021

I’ll go with the 16 for the women. Thanks Big Easy

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - BigEasyCard - 06-07-2021

Stanford Women will score Cup points in potentially eleven sports this year. Under the old scoring system, they would have been limited to ten, so the 2018 change may help in one regard.

In Fall, women’s scores count in three sports: Cross Country, Field Hockey, and Volleyball (0).

In Winter, women’s scores count in two sports: Basketball and Swimming. Fencing can be counted for either gender.

In Spring, women’s scores count in five sports: Golf, Rowing, Softball, Tennis, and Water Polo. And there’s a possible sixth with WOTF.

Geaux Cardinal!

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - CTcard - 06-07-2021

(06-07-2021, 12:04 PM)76lsjumb Wrote:
(06-07-2021, 11:12 AM)teejers1 Wrote: How many people are feeling good about Stanford's chances in baseball this evening?

That melt down last night reminded me of the US Open Women's golf result yesterday. You could see the front-runner leaking oil and the end-result was almost inevitable by 17. Baseball and golf are different - in too many ways to count - of course, but I'm not liking Stanford's "mojo" in baseball right now (or the pitching prospects tonight). At all.

Hope the Cardinal surprise and blow the doors of UCI. (Agree with another poster who speculated that it might well take 10+ runs to win tonight).

"Mojo" is hard to predict. You could be right, but I take heart from the season series against Arizona, when we came back from a 20-2 obliteration to win the next game and the series. Also, we took 3 out of 4 from UCI earlier in the year, and, when you look at the last two games, UCI had a nightmare inning in their loss to us, then we had a nightmare inning in our loss to them... so it seems to me it's their turn again to have the nightmare inning, right?

I'm guessing that mojo will have less to do with it than which pitcher on which team has the game of his life tonight.

I am neither feeling good nor bad about Stanford's chances tonight. It's baseball, and the two teams are fairly evenly matched. That's got to put the odds on the order of 50-50.

I didn't see any oil leaking as Stanford took games one 9-1 and two 12-4 (the latter against the team on tap). The main oil I saw leak before the not-foul call was Stanford leaving too many runners on base, but up to that point Stanford was getting more hits (9-6) and more extra base hits (5-1). Then non-foul and three infield singles off the pitcher's glove killed us. [Well, the other two doubles were pretty brutal too.]

I am nervous about tonight's game - always am. I am worried that UCI seems to have a deeper pitching staff. I am heartened by the power in Stanford's lineup that might come through as the pitching weakens, but worried that the night game will mean the balls won't carry as well. Heartened by the fact that Stanford has only lost back to back games a single time this season.
It's game 4 for Stanford, game 5 for UCI, chances are high that the game winner will have double digit runs.

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - Blue Hawk (Mizzou) Card - 06-07-2021

"Mojo" is hard to predict. You could be right, but I take heart from the season series against Arizona, when we came back from a 20-2 obliteration to win the next game and the series. Also, we took 3 out of 4 from UCI earlier in the year, and, when you look at the last two games, UCI had a nightmare inning in their loss to us, then we had a nightmare inning in our loss to them... so it seems to me it's their turn again to have the nightmare inning, right?

I'm guessing that mojo will have less to do with it than which pitcher on which team has the game of his life tonight.Cardinal!

I agree. Ugly 8th for us last night. Ugly 2nd for them in the first game.

Both innings were goofy. On Saturday, Irvine had three straight infield ground ball errors with two outs. Yesterday there was the goofy replay ruling and three perfectly placed infield hits, two of which hit the pitcher. To be sure, each team added some well hit balls. But both of those innings were mostly goofy.

I'm personally much more worried about our depleted pitching staff. Spotty midweek record does not bode well for a second regional final.

Also don't like the 7 pm start time. Hurts us more than them as we have more power hitters. I fear lots of outs at the warning track.

Lots to worry about.

Go Cardinsl!

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - BobK - 06-07-2021

Great point on the 7PM start. Temperature from 60 at start time to mid 50s.

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - M T - 06-07-2021

Stanford minimum score looks to be 1153.75 after baseball advances to the super regional. Stanford is predicted to finish 16th in W T&F, which would give Stanford a few more points, but I'm not counting this in Stanford's minimum score.

Florida would need 182.25 in M+W T&F combined. Predicted finishes (W:9 M:17) total 124.5 points. To catch Stanford, they'd need at least to win one of the two T&F championships and finish 2nd in the other.

UNC would need 34 net points + 26 points for the loss of M SW in either M or W T&F. Predicted finishes (W:- M:35), total 39 points. To catch Stanford's minimum score, they'd have to finish about 14th (in M T&F).

Michigan would need 121.25 points. Predicted finishes (W:- M:21) total about 52 points. To catch Stanford, they'd have to score in both M&W T&F, with an average finish of about 13th.

Based on predicted T&F finishes, the top 4 Director's Cup teams will be
1. 1153.75+ Stanford
2. 1133 UNC
3. 1096 Florida
4. 1085 Michigan

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - donkey687 - 06-08-2021

Not counting for Director's Cup, but relevant for 36 sports strong. Stanford Sailing just finished second at Coed Nationals behind Navy. This is their best finish ever in Sailing's main event and they did it without their two top sailors who opted out of this year. Their top female skipper was moved into the starting lineup in the Coed Nationals and won her division going away.

https://gostanford.com/news/2021/6/8/sailing-best-finish-in-program-history.aspx

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - Phogge - 06-08-2021

Seems like the Navy should win every year. If they don't then I'm worried about our Sixth and Seventh Fleet ship handling.

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - 2006alum - 06-08-2021

(06-08-2021, 03:43 PM)Phogge Wrote: Seems like the Navy should win every year. If they don't then I'm worried about our Sixth and Seventh Fleet ship handling.

LOL. Thank you for that belly laugh.

RE: Directors' Cup will be awarded for 2020-21 - BostonCard - 06-08-2021

So, what was the mojo like last night?

BC