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Pac12 CG Prediction - Printable Version

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Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - Gauss - 12-08-2013

Finally!
After a series of fairly outlandish predictions, garvin's boundless optimism finally paid off and wins this week!
His 35-17 prediction was the closest to yesterday's delicious whipping of the Sun Devils. Congratulations garvin!

In the overall standings, Extra Point got the 3rd closest prediction, and cut Leftcoast's lead from 21 to only 12 points!
The Rose bowl will be the last game, so Extra Point still has a chance to win all the marbles (given that Leftcoast could wait for Extra Point to post his/her prediction, and then predict the same to win, I'd accept Extra Point's predictions in a PM).

Now, onto Pasadena.
Yipee!

Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - Gauss - 12-08-2013

Stanford Vs Arizona St:  38-14

Rank Poster
Points
Score
Total error
1. garvin
38
35-17
6
2. CowboyIndian
37
34-17
7
3. Extra Point
36
41-7
10
4. dabigv
35
31-17
10
5. CompSci87
33
27-14
11
5. PrinceLightfoot
33
34-21
11
7. Treebound
32
35-23
12
8. Publius
31
28-17
13
9. Griffin78
30
31-20
13
10. Hank 91
29
27-17
14
--- --------------
----
-----
------
11. Oasis
28
24-14
14
12. Leftcoast
27
27-17
14
13. NYCCardinalFan
26
31-21
14
14. Red State
25
24-13
15
15. martyup
24
50-10
16
16. Card Fan in OR
23
28-20
16
17. pcgoode
22
28-21
17
18. Gauss
21
28-21
17
19. SUBuddha
20
31-24
17
20. pefloresjr
19
27-20
17
--- --------------
----
-----
------
21. OutsiderFan
18
37-30
17
22. Renaissance Man
14
31-24
17
22. socalstanfan1
14
27-20
17
22. Farm93
14
31-24
17
22. Kathy
14
28-21
17
26. JeffInCorvallis
12
24-20
20
26. 82lsju
12
21-17
20
28. Kevin Gemmell
11
31-28
21
29. fullmetal
10
20-17
21
30. FarmBoy
9
20-17
21
--- --------------
----
-----
------
31. 81alum
8
31-28
21
32. CrazedZooChimp
5
24-21
21
32. shinsengumi
5
24-21
21
32. oman
5
31-28
21
35. Mick
3
33-31
22
35. 2 for 2028
3
26-24
22
37. Big Brother
2
24-23
23
38. Ted Miller
-4
24-28
28


Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - Gauss - 12-08-2013

Rank Poster
Points
Av. error
Av. bias
Av. off. bias
Predictions
1. Leftcoast
346
15.8
-1.5
-5.2
13
2. Extra Point
334
16.5
+2.8
+0.7
13
3. Griffin78
296
17.5
+3.1
+2.5
13
4. Publius
284
17.9
-2.1
-4.1
13
5. Kevin Gemmell
280
16.3
-5.5
-2.1
13
6. SUBuddha
277
17.2
-0.5
+1.6
12
7. Hank 91
276
18.0
+5.2
+1.8
13
8. PrinceLightfoot
275
20.0
+7.0
+3.1
12
9. CompSci87
271
18.5
+4.5
+0.8
13
10. JeffInCorvallis
269
17.1
-4.9
-3.7
13
--- ---------------
----
---------
---------
---------
---------
11. pefloresjr
268
19.1
-0.8
+1.7
12
12. Renaissance Man
266
15.9
-0.5
+1.6
11
13. CrazedZooChimp
263
18.8
+2.2
-1.7
13
14. FarmBoy
261
19.2
-0.1
+0.7
13
15. Ted Miller
259
17.4
-6.8
-3.6
13
16. garvin
255
17.6
+0.1
-0.6
13
17. socalstanfan1
254
17.2
-2.6
-4.1
11
18. Farm93
245
18.7
+1.6
+0.1
13
19. pcgoode
242
18.3
+2.1
+2.5
11
20. 81alum
239
20.2
-3.4
-0.8
13
--- ---------------
----
---------
---------
---------
---------
21. OutsiderFan
236
18.3
+2.5
+2.3
13
22. washingtonismoney
231
16.4
+4.8
+1.3
10
23. Gauss
222
21.4
-2.8
-3.7
13
24. Card Fan in OR
210
19.3
+4.2
+2.9
13
25. Mick
202
17.8
-2.4
+0.2
13
26. CochinoJanks
193
19.7
+2.1
+6.3
10
27. 2 for 2028
180
20.8
+3.0
+1.3
13
28. Treebound
178
21.4
+2.6
+1.7
11
29. Kathy
170
20.7
+2.5
+2.3
13
30. shinsengumi
163
19.1
-2.9
+1.5
8
=== ===============
====
=========
=========
=========
=========
Board averages
18.4
+2.0
+0.4
8.1


Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - Gauss - 12-08-2013

Rank Poster
Points
Av. error
Av. bias
Av. off. bias
Predictions
31. 82lsju
159
18.0
-1.2
-2.9
8
32. GoodGrief
157
24.2
+6.4
+4.7
9
33. NYCCardinalFan
156
21.4
-0.6
+0.6
10
34. dabigv
144
19.4
+8.3
+3.0
7
35. martyup
142
24.5
+8.0
+6.4
12
36. Big Brother
136
22.4
-4.8
-6.7
10
37. fullmetal
127
20.8
+4.6
-1.2
11
38. Trevmiesterj
122
19.6
+3.4
+1.2
8
39. needle
108
24.2
+1.6
+0.7
9
40. jeboody
107
18.8
0.0
-6.0
5
--- ---------------
----
---------
---------
---------
---------
41. godfire
103
18.3
+3.7
-1.5
6
42. Red State
96
15.0
-3.0
-2.7
3
43. stupac2
95
20.7
+8.7
-1.8
6
44. CowboyIndian
93
12.3
+2.8
+0.3
4
45. Fuzzy Dunlop
92
17.3
+4.0
-4.7
3
46. Oasis
88
15.8
+2.2
+4.0
4
47. Hulk01
86
2.5
-1.5
+0.5
2
48. oman
85
23.2
+6.1
+7.1
9
49. 97fan
82
22.5
-2.5
-7.8
4
50. Rando90
58
27.0
+10.3
-1.3
3
51. AthleticsDynasty
56
13.3
+13.3
+7.3
3
52. norcalcard
43
6.0
+6.0
+2.0
1
53. jacketree
37
10.0
+10.0
+4.0
1
54. 71Bear
37
11.0
-11.0
-11.0
1
55. TChickens
37
17.5
+10.5
+7.0
2
56. Roberton3
33
16.0
+16.0
+3.0
1
57. optimistic
24
5.0
+3.0
+4.0
1
58. DucksAreRoostingInTheTree
22
22.5
-4.5
+9.0
2
59. donkey687
17
24.0
+4.0
+14.0
1
60. stanfan
15
21.0
+21.0
+4.0
1
61. Treefence
9
24.0
+24.0
+14.0
1
62. CJ90
7
16.0
+16.0
+6.0
1
63. JPRI
5
33.0
-33.0
-29.0
1
64. Canard
2
20.0
-20.0
-6.0
1
=== ===============
====
=========
=========
=========
=========
Board averages
18.4
+2.0
+0.4
8.1


Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - Extra Point - 12-08-2013

(12-08-2013, 11:40 AM)Gauss link Wrote:In the overall standings, Extra Point got the 3rd closest prediction, and cut Leftcoast's lead from 21 to only 12 points!
The Rose bowl will be the last game, so Extra Point still has a chance to win all the marbles (given that Leftcoast could wait for Extra Point to post his/her prediction, and then predict the same to win, I'd accept Extra Point's predictions in a PM).

The only fair way to handle this is to have the leader make the final game prediction first.

Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - washingtonismoney - 12-08-2013

I'm well behind, so this doesn't matter -- but I think the fairest way would be for the leaders to PM their prediction to Gauss.

Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - stupac2 - 12-08-2013

Clearly the only fair way to handle it is a duel outside of the Rose Bowl.

Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - CompSci87 - 12-08-2013

Slide rules at 30 paces!

Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - Leftcoast - 12-08-2013

Just catching up on this one. 

How 'bout if I make my prediction now?  Stanford 24, Green Sparty Boys 17.

A low scoring first half gives way to a looser second half where Stanford puts up two TDs and A FG, sending the fans in red home happy!

Book it!

Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - Leftcoast - 12-08-2013

Although a slide rule duel sound very "Nerd Nation".  I could go for that even if my throwback weapon of choice would be an HP 15c "reverse polish " RPN calculator.

Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - Extra Point - 12-08-2013

(12-08-2013, 05:56 PM)Leftcoast link Wrote:Just catching up on this one. 

How 'bout if I make my prediction now?  Stanford 24, Green Sparty Boys 17.

A low scoring first half gives way to a looser second half where Stanford puts up two TDs and A FG, sending the fans in red home happy!

Book it!

Given what is known now, that is a realistic prediction. But, a lot can happen between now and New Years. My sense of fair play says you should make your prediction a day or two before the game.



Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - Bruce Wang - 12-08-2013

(12-08-2013, 06:05 PM)Leftcoast link Wrote:Although a slide rule duel sound very "Nerd Nation".  I could go for that even if my throwback weapon of choice would be an HP 15c "reverse polish " RPN calculator.

I'd take you on with my 12c except the only calculations I could beat you in a duel with would be formulas related to the time value of money.

Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - Leftcoast - 12-09-2013

Nah ..... I'll stand by my prediction and give Extra Point whatever advantage picking second brings. 

Game Theory could probably let either of us maximize our chances based upon the likely distribution of other Cardboard picks vs the likely spread of game scores.  My guess is that might lead to choosing Michigan St .... And then you've truly joined the dark side.  I've already done that once with the Oregon game and, baby, it was cold outside.  This is my best guess at how these two stingy defenses will do when facing offenses that have had a month to prepare.

Barring Willy Howard blowing out the ligaments in his right knee or Troy Walters playing the Rose Bowl with his hand in a cast  (and THAT could never happen, right?) I'll stick with my score.

Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - Leftcoast - 12-09-2013

The 12c would be a good choice, Publius .  I swapped my 15 with a classmate for her 12 when taking a Stanford class on portfolio management and it was a godsend.

Vintage HP calcs at 3.14159 paces it is then!

(For a laugh give your kids a RPN calculator and watch their heads spin.  Trust me they look at us the way we looked at our parents when they explained their beloved slip-sticks.)

Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - Leftcoast - 12-09-2013

Hopefully you would also let them off the hook if they knew WHY it was known as Polish notation?  Polish notation was invented by Polish logician Jan Kukasiewicz.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_Polish_notation

(Oh, our Michigan St. visitors must be getting a kick out of this topic's hard veer toward geekdom!)



Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - Extra Point - 12-09-2013

(12-09-2013, 12:57 AM)Leftcoast link Wrote:Nah ..... I'll stand by my prediction and give Extra Point whatever advantage picking second brings.

OK Leftcoast, you're on!

Nothing in the world could force me to pick Michigan State. Thus, for me to win it will be necessary for Stanford to score more points than you predict and/or Michigan State to score less. Hopefully this approach coincides with my prediction methods.

I became more motivated to win this contest in mid season because my daughter and son-in-law, knowing exactly how I feel about such matters, thought it would be really cute to dress my grandson on a special occasion as shown below.

I think it would be really cool for Benjamin to receive something much more appropriate on his first birthday that his grandpa won.


[attachment deleted by admin]

Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - CowboyIndian - 12-10-2013

(12-08-2013, 06:05 PM)Leftcoast link Wrote:... an HP 15c "reverse polish " RPN calculator.

Aren't these made by Shinola? Shows how much I know.

Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - Bruce Wang - 12-10-2013

(12-09-2013, 05:09 PM)Extra Point link Wrote:I think it would be really cool for Benjamin to receive something much more appropriate on his first birthday that his grandpa won.

Extra Point, that is a super cute picture.  I checked. Sadly Stanford does not sell an equally cute hat in the shape of the Tree.

Re: Pac12 CG Prediction - Extra Point - 12-10-2013

(12-10-2013, 02:44 PM)Publius link Wrote:[quote author=Extra Point link=topic=9028.msg77513#msg77513 date=1386634174]
I think it would be really cool for Benjamin to receive something much more appropriate on his first birthday that his grandpa won.

Extra Point, that is a super cute picture.  I checked. Sadly Stanford does not sell an equally cute hat in the shape of the Tree.
[/quote]

It doesn't need it to be cuter, just more appropriate. If I am fortunate enough to win this item, then it will become a family heirloom. If I purchase something, it will be discarded with no regrets at some point. So, please Mr. Hogan -- bombs away for baby Benjamin!