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Re: Which Bowl? - OutsiderFan - 11-30-2014

SB Nation is projecting Stanford-UNC in the Cactus on Jan 2.

How awesome would this be?  UNC, with it's academic fraud, against Stanford.  What a story line!  Plus, Stanford has been recruiting the Carolinas a lot lately, so good exposure in that area.

At the same time, SB Nation is projecting Iowa against U$C in the Chicken Bowl.  Frankly, if I have to choose Stanford playing Iowa or UNC, it's UNC hands down.  The home field advantage wouldn't exist wherever the Cactus is, but I think beating UNC is a better trophy than Iowa, and did I mention the UNC academic fraud?

Funny how the Bay area scribes (Wilner and Fitzgerald) are sold on Stanford in the Chicken Bowl, and all the national guys say U$C will be there against Iowa or Rutgers.

Just saw two projections with Stanford against East Carolina or Utah State in Cactus.  I've seen projections with Stanford against Colorado State in Las Vegas too.  My gawd would it suck to not play a power 5 team.


Re: Which Bowl? - yvonne - 11-30-2014

I don't know what this person's source is, but it looks like he's gathered information from almost all the bowls.

He has Cactus at $3.2 million, Foster Farms at $2.2, and Las Vegas at $1.4

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/bowl_games_bowl_schedule.html

Re: Which Bowl? - CrazedZooChimp - 11-30-2014

(11-30-2014, 09:38 AM)garvin link Wrote:
Quote:I forgot the guy in charge is a Stanford alum.

Gary Cavalli was sports editor of the Stanford Daily, worked for a while for the medical center's news service, and then was SID for a long time. He's also co-author of a book on Stanford sports. No question he'd love to have us. What the AD prefers, I'm sure, is the bowl with the highest payout. I don't know how the San Francisco Bowl and the Las Vegas Bowl stack up on that.

Uhh, I thought the payouts all went to the league (minus expenses) and were split.  That's how it's always happened in the past.

As for the Cactus Bowl, if Wilners update last week is right (see top of his post http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2014/11/26/pac-12-football-updated-bowl-projections-arizonas-win-changed-everything/), we can't be picked for the Cactus Bowl, and we would be headed to Vegas (assuming Arizona/Oregon both get committee spots).

Re: Which Bowl? - yvonne - 11-30-2014

There are three parts of Wilner's post that seem relevant here.

Quote:The Sun, Las Vegas and Cactus are required to select teams in order of finish, so a 5-4 team, for example, cannot be passed over in favor of a 4-5 team. My apologies.

We're tied with Utah, and ahead of Washington.

Quote: The result ensured that both Arizona and ASU would enter the Territorial Cup with nine wins and top-15 rankings, which increased the likelihood that the winner will earn a berth in one of the six major bowls even if it’s not the South champ.

I won’t say the Cup winner is a lock for the non-playoff New Year’s Eve/Day games, because there are no locks. But the winner would be in advantageous position.

This pushes the lower bowls up a notch. Alamo gets the No 3, Holiday the No. 4, etc.

Quote: There’s still a scenario in which the conference has Oregon and then a group of three-loss teams: Stanford beats UCLA and the Territorial Cup winner loses to the Ducks in the title game. Because we have no idea how the selection committee will treat title game losers, there’s no way to know how the Pac-12 would fair on selection day in that scenario.


The first part happened. The second part has a reasonable chance of happening.

Finally, Wilner's post leaves out the Cactus.

Re: Which Bowl? - CTcard - 11-30-2014

(11-30-2014, 09:13 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:I think beating UNC is a better trophy than Iowa,

UNC is a 6-6 team with three 27+ point losses (one to East Carolina) and two other 15+ point losses. Their best win is over Duke.

Iowa is 7-5, with one big loss (37 points to Minnesota) and one loss to a bad team (Iowa State). Their best performances were probably close losses the past two games vs Wisconsin and Nebraska.

Re: Which Bowl? - stupac2 - 12-01-2014

Wilner is convinced that it's the chickenbowl: http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2014/12/01/stanford-football-grading-the-week-59/

Re: Which Bowl? - yvonne - 12-01-2014

Phil Steele pegs us for Las Vegas. https://www.philsteele.com/bowls/14-15/bowlprojections.html

Re: Which Bowl? - yvonne - 12-01-2014

Here are Wilner's projections, which I think are a bit fanciful because two 5-win teams would have to leapfrog two 6-win teams for it to happen.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2014/12/01/pac-12-football-bowl-projections-arizona-to-the-fiesta-utah-to-the-holiday-and-more/

Re: Which Bowl? - stupac2 - 12-01-2014

(12-01-2014, 03:49 PM)Yvonne link Wrote:Here are Wilner's projections, which I think are a bit fanciful because two 5-win teams would have to leapfrog two 6-win teams for it to happen.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2014/12/01/pac-12-football-bowl-projections-arizona-to-the-fiesta-utah-to-the-holiday-and-more/

I dunno, he makes compelling points that the bowls themselves would be happier with the "worse" team. It would be a little surprising if he were right about both us and Utah jumping, but it wouldn't be that surprising.

Re: Which Bowl? - 76lsjumb - 12-01-2014

(12-01-2014, 03:49 PM)Yvonne link Wrote:Here are Wilner's projections, which I think are a bit fanciful because two 5-win teams would have to leapfrog two 6-win teams for it to happen.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2014/12/01/pac-12-football-bowl-projections-arizona-to-the-fiesta-utah-to-the-holiday-and-more/

I hope Wilner's right.

Wait, what...? :o  That's a sentence I never thought I would post...

Re: Which Bowl? - fullmetal - 12-01-2014

I can't make a 12/30 game in SF, but I could make a 12/20 game in Vegas.  Still, I hope the team gets whichever bowl benefits them the most...probably SF because of fewer travel costs and better ticket sales, right?

Re: Which Bowl? - OutsiderFan - 12-01-2014

Wow, poor UCLA.  Going from one game from the playoff possibly, to the Las Vegas Bowl.  Thank you, Stanford.

Re: Which Bowl? - fullmetal - 12-01-2014

No mercy.  They should have beaten Stanford if they wanted that chance to happen. 

Also, that debt of gratitude Stanford owed to Arizona from last season has been repaid.  We'll see what the Pac-12 championship game result is soon enough...

Re: Which Bowl? - 76lsjumb - 12-01-2014

(12-01-2014, 04:55 PM)fullmetal link Wrote:I can't make a 12/30 game in SF, but I could make a 12/20 game in Vegas.  Still, I hope the team gets whichever bowl benefits them the most...probably SF because of fewer travel costs and better ticket sales, right?

Sorry to hear that about the 12/30 FF Bowl [if it comes to pass].  It would be nice to have a second chance to share a Bowl victory with you and make up for last year.  Unfortunately, I've likely got the opposite situation from you vis a vis the Purple People Eater's Bowl [or whatever it is] in Lost Wages...

Re: Which Bowl? - terry - 12-01-2014

(12-01-2014, 03:42 PM)Yvonne link Wrote:Phil Steele pegs us for Las Vegas. https://www.philsteele.com/bowls/14-15/bowlprojections.html

Phil Steele assumes the Holiday Bowl will take Arizona State over USC. I doubt it. The Holiday Bowl had ASU last year. They've had ASU four times, but they've never had USC. I think they will take USC.

Then the Foster Farms Bowl will have a choice of ASU, Stanford, or Utah. I think they will take Stanford in that situation.

Re: Which Bowl? - CrazedZooChimp - 12-01-2014

(12-01-2014, 05:47 PM)terry link Wrote:[quote author=Yvonne link=topic=11235.msg107144#msg107144 date=1417473760]
Phil Steele pegs us for Las Vegas. https://www.philsteele.com/bowls/14-15/bowlprojections.html

Phil Steele assumes the Holiday Bowl will take Arizona State over U$€. I doubt it. The Holiday Bowl had ASU last year. They've had ASU four times, but they've never had U$€. I think they will take U$€.

Then the Foster Farms Bowl will have a choice of ASU, Stanford, or Utah. I think they will take Stanford in that situation.
[/quote]

Yeah, I think my biggest question with Wilners projections is that the Alamo takes U$C.  I don't think that will happen, even after the ND game, and if U$C is available they will go to the Holiday.  I still think ASU/UCLA (whoever doesn't go to the Alamo) would be passed over by the chicken bowl for Stanford.

Re: Which Bowl? - Farm93 - 12-01-2014

First, thankful the program has THIS problem.  Not hard to imagine a different outcome for a team that was 5-5 with two games to play.  In a different era that 5-5 Stanford team would have finished 5-7 as coaches would have blamed injuries, referees, a few poor plays etc.  Hmmm, sounds so familiar for some reason.... :)

Las Vegas probably sounds like more fun for the players and allows them to be home for the holidays.  The earlier date impacts the number of practices, and the Pac-12 teams have certainly not done very well at that game.

Santa Clara can't sound like a good idea to most players, and the date forces them to stay on campus.  The date is definitely better for the staff to create a mini-training camp.

Ultimately, happy the team will get to play in a bowl as those extra practices seem very important for maintaining a strong program.

Re: Which Bowl? - BostonCard - 12-01-2014

I assume that even if the game is in Santa Clara, the team will stay at whatever hotel is designated for the Pac-12 team.  I would imagine it would be part of the contract with the Bowl, and that those rooms have already been reserved (under "Pac-12 team").

On Gavin's earlier contention that a 10-3 Arizona team that just got blown out by Oregon would not get one of the 12 (12!) slots accorded to New Year's day bowls:

Rose Bowl — Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1
Sugar Bowl — SEC #1 vs. Big 12 #1
Orange Bowl — ACC #1 vs. SEC #2, Big Ten #2, or Notre Dame
Cotton Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)
Fiesta Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)
Peach Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)

The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl are taken up by the four playoff teams, so the other four bowls will have at-large selections (I'm assuming that the ACC champ will be Florida State and will make the playoffs).  The Orange would take the SEC #2 or Big Ten #2.  Notre Dame won't be eligible ( :) ).

Teams under consideration (assuming the playoff goes to Oregon, Florida State, Alabama, and TCU or Baylor):
Pac-12: Arizona (10-3 if it loses to Oregon)
Big-10: The team that loses out between Baylor and TCU (likely 11-1 if it beats K-State), K-State if it beats Baylor (10-2)
Big-12: Ohio State (12-1, if it beats Wisconsin), Michigan State (10-2), Wisconsin (10-3 if it loses to tOSU)
ACC: Georgia Tech (would be 10-3 if it loses to FSU), Clemson (9-3)
SEC: Mississipi State (10-2), Missouri (10-3 assuming it loses to Alabama), Georgia (9-3)

My guess is every Big5 conference gets 2 teams in, and the SEC and Big Ten get three (which is unbelievable given how weak the Big Ten has been).  Beyond that, there aren't any Big5 teams with at least 10 wins unless Kansas State beats Baylor, and if that happens, I don't think a 10-3 Arizona would lose out to a 10-3 Wisconsin, a 10-3 Missouri, a 10-3 Georgia Tech, or a 9-3 Clemson or Georgia.  I suppose if all three of the teams pull upsets, Arizona would be the odd team out.

BC

Re: Which Bowl? - French Rage - 12-01-2014

(12-01-2014, 06:39 PM)Farm93 link Wrote:Santa Clara can't sound like a good idea to most players, and the date forces them to stay on campus.  The date is definitely better for the staff to create a mini-training camp.

Would the players care about getting a B1G team versus a MWC team, or would that not really matter to them?

Re: Which Bowl? - BostonCard - 12-02-2014

I forgot one thing...

Quote:Pairings for Selected Other Bowl Games.
All displaced conference champions and the highest ranked champion from a non-contract conference, as ranked by the committee, will participate in selected other bowl games and will be assigned to those games by the committee. If berths in the selected other bowl games remain available after those teams have been identified, the highest ranked other teams, as ranked by the committee, will fill those berths in rank order.’(Note: A “displaced conference champion” is a champion of a contract conference that does not qualify for the playoff in a year when its contract bowl hosts a semifinal game.)

So, at least one of the berths will be taken by the highest ranked champion from a non-contract conference.  Still, that leaves room for every Big5 conference to get two teams in, and one conference to get three in.  The best non-Big5 team will also get in, which would have been Marshall, but it lost.  Right now that looks to be Boise State.

BC