Departures thread - Printable Version
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Re: Departures thread - needle - 01-03-2015
Quote: Seems to me that Shaw tried to have Hogan throw more and it didn't work too well.
I disagree with you if you're saying that Hogan's passing was minimized in the offensive gameplans for UCLA and Maryland.
I counted 15 pass attempts by halftime of the Maryland game and 15 pass attempts by halftime of the UCLA game, and these were not mostly swing passes to the flat.
Hogan's whole game totals owe more to conservative playcalling in the second half of those games than an effort to minimize Hogan's passing, imo.
Re: Departures thread - CTcard - 01-03-2015
(01-03-2015, 10:06 PM)needle link Wrote:I counted 15 pass attempts by halftime of the Maryland game and 15 pass attempts by halftime of the UCLA game, and these were not mostly swing passes to the flat.
Hogan's whole game totals owe more to conservative playcalling in the second half of those games than an effort to minimize Hogan's passing, imo.
I have been thinking about this issue - though framed in the sense of emphasizing the run game vs de-emphasizing Hogan's passing. Stanford was running at a far higher percentage over the past three games, but they also had big leads in the second half that led them to go to their traditional run-the-clock offense in the second half of each game.
So, what happened in the first halves?
vs Maryland.
15 pass attempts
21 rushes
42% pass plays.
vs UCLA
15 pass attempts
25 rushes
37% pass plays
vs c.a.l
17 pass attempts
24 rushes
41% pass plays
All three total, 40% pass plays.
Over the first 10 games, in first halves, Stanford ran 51% pass plays.
So, while games were competitive, Stanford did start running the ball substantially more in the final three games. However, given the nature of the passing game (substantially downfield) I would characterize that as stressing the run game more than not trusting Hogan's passing.
Re: Departures thread - StanFan88 - 01-04-2015
(01-03-2015, 10:06 PM)needle link Wrote:Quote: Seems to me that Shaw tried to have Hogan throw more and it didn't work too well.
I disagree with you if you're saying that Hogan's passing was minimized in the offensive gameplans for UCLA and Maryland.
Just stating that when Hogan did throw more than 20 times a game, the offense struggled over 60 minutes. I think this has as much to do with the failures to develop a running game outside the hashmarks as anything else, but I don't have any statistics to back that part up. It did seem that Stanford ran the ball between the tackles fewer times later in the season, and with good results.
Re: Departures thread - Hurlburt88 - 01-04-2015
My hypothesis is that the higher % of runs reflects increased confidence in the execution of the o-line plus McCaffrey coming fully up to speed
Re: Departures thread - CTcard - 01-04-2015
(01-04-2015, 06:06 AM)StanFan88 link Wrote:It did seem that Stanford ran the ball between the tackles fewer times later in the season, and with good results.
It didn't seem like that to me; at least in absolute number of plays if not percentage.
But figuring that out requires either watching all the film and tracking the running plays or having access to stats that I don't have or can't find. Hmmmm.
Re: Departures thread - socalstanfan1 - 01-04-2015
(01-04-2015, 06:06 AM)StanFan88 link Wrote:[quote author=needle link=topic=11437.msg109766#msg109766 date=1420348014]
Quote: Seems to me that Shaw tried to have Hogan throw more and it didn't work too well.
I disagree with you if you're saying that Hogan's passing was minimized in the offensive gameplans for UCLA and Maryland.
Just stating that when Hogan did throw more than 20 times a game, the offense struggled over 60 minutes. I think this has as much to do with the failures to develop a running game outside the hashmarks as anything else, but I don't have any statistics to back that part up. It did seem that Stanford ran the ball between the tackles fewer times later in the season, and with good results.
[/quote]
I think the answer to this is kind of obvious. When your team is in a tight game, or trailing, you are more likely using a wide variety of the plays in your playbook, including the passing plays (particularly if the running plays are not so effective). But when you have a large lead at the half, or by the early part of the second half, you (or, at least Shaw) shrinks the playbook and call more running plays to burn the clock. If the running plays are working, so much the better. But I think the lack of passing in the second half in the last three games probably has a lot more to do with the offensive efficiency in the first half, than any issues between Hogan and Shaw. And, I suspect the improved performance in all areas of the offense probably has to do with the maturation of the offensive line which can make a QB more comfortable, and open lanes for RB (which makes play action more effective.)
Re: Departures thread - stupac2 - 01-04-2015
I don't think we can really determine cause/effect there. Were we less effective because we were passing more, or were we passing more because we were less effective? ¯\_(ã)_/¯
All I know is that I think Hogan could've thrown 40 times against Cal, UCLA, and Maryland and still done excellently. Everything was clicking, and while we didn't need him to carry us I think he could've.
Re: Departures thread - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 01-04-2015
(12-31-2014, 09:14 AM)dabigv link Wrote:[quote author=needle link=topic=11437.msg109373#msg109373 date=1420041738]
Some Twitter chatter that Hogan might go to Michigan. That would shock me.
This would be a stunning indictment of the program. I hope that's unfounded. Hard to believe.
[/quote]
Indictment of the program, or indictment of Hogan's talents relative to his successors?
Re: Departures thread - StanFan88 - 01-04-2015
Ultimately, I think that if Stanford needs Hogan to throw the ball more than 25 times a game it's not likely to be a good thing.
Re: Departures thread - Mick - 01-04-2015
(12-31-2014, 09:14 AM)dabigv link Wrote:[quote author=needle link=topic=11437.msg109373#msg109373 date=1420041738]
Some Twitter chatter that Hogan might go to Michigan. That would shock me.
This would be a stunning indictment of the program. I hope that's unfounded. Hard to believe.
[/quote]
Particularly given David Shaw's very public backing of Hogan for next year.
Re: Departures thread - Mick - 01-04-2015
(12-31-2014, 10:57 AM)Hank 91 link Wrote:Lombardi tweeted last night that Carter said to him, "This [game] might be it." So there's that.
As for the other guys, what about this. What if Hogan, Peat, and Cajuste get together and say, "Geez, that was pretty fun last night. I think our offense could be like that all season long now that we've finally got things figured out. Why don't we come back and win a national championship?"
A guy can dream, right?
I think it's more likely that the three of them get together and say "Wouldn't it be great if we got paid for doing this?"
Re: Departures thread - Mick - 01-04-2015
(12-31-2014, 11:24 AM)Spiny_Norman link Wrote:[quote author=CTcard link=topic=11437.msg109396#msg109396 date=1420049870]
Carter, perhaps along with Peat, will be our first Juniors to leave for the NFL in a long time - perhaps since Teyo Johnson?
Thomas Keiser left after the 2010 season with a year of eligibility. Looks like he is playing in the Arena Football League now.
[/quote]
I couldn't believe it when Keiser left early. I thought that was a gigantic mistake.
Re: Departures thread - Mick - 01-04-2015
(01-04-2015, 12:26 PM)ThePassionOfTheChryst link Wrote:[quote author=dabigv link=topic=11437.msg109375#msg109375 date=1420042478]
[quote author=needle link=topic=11437.msg109373#msg109373 date=1420041738]
Some Twitter chatter that Hogan might go to Michigan. That would shock me.
This would be a stunning indictment of the program. I hope that's unfounded. Hard to believe.
[/quote]
Indictment of the program, or indictment of Hogan's talents relative to his successors?
[/quote]
I think Hogan leaving early is as bad for the player as Keiser leaving early. Hogan has shown flashes of brilliance, but really needs an upgrade in those skills that the NFL consider to be most attractive. In short, he needs a full year of seasoning, and that could make millions of dollars' worth of difference in compensation to him. Big, big mistake if he chooses to leave.
Re: Departures thread - CTcard - 01-04-2015
(01-04-2015, 03:30 PM)Mick link Wrote:I couldn't believe it when Keiser left early. I thought that was a gigantic mistake.
There is a generally knowledgable poster on the Bootboard (fborg) who maintains that Keiser left early because he saw that he was likely to lose his starting position, or at least much playing time. I don't remember the situation in detail. In the event, he was replaced by Trent Murphy. But seeing that Murphy only played played two games in 2010 due to injury, I am surprised that would have been appeared likely in January 2011. Certainly Keiser was a generally productive player for us despite his last year being somewhat overshadowed.
If true, it could parallel Lyons situation. Lyons lost his starting cornerback job midseason this year. However, given the likely losses in the secondary it would seen he would have a clear path towards being a starter - perhaps at safety that many view as his natural position (see Hulk and recruiting reviews from four years ago).
Re: Departures thread - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 01-04-2015
(01-04-2015, 03:35 PM)Mick link Wrote:I think Hogan leaving early is as bad for the player as Keiser leaving early. Hogan has shown flashes of brilliance, but really needs an upgrade in those skills that the NFL consider to be most attractive. In short, he needs a full year of seasoning, and that could make millions of dollars' worth of difference in compensation to him. Big, big mistake if he chooses to leave.
Hogan has no business leaving early, but I hope he does. Shaw has all but guaranteed him his job should he return, and I think it's best for the program to see what Burns or Chryst can do.
Re: Departures thread - CowboyIndian - 01-04-2015
(01-04-2015, 04:15 PM)ThePassionOfTheChryst link Wrote:I think it's best for the program to see what Burns or Chryst can do.
Given your handle, I think the foregoing might be somewhat disingenuous.
Re: Departures thread - Mick - 01-04-2015
(01-04-2015, 05:41 PM)CowboyIndian link Wrote:[quote author=ThePassionOfTheChryst link=topic=11437.msg109850#msg109850 date=1420413309]
I think it's best for the program to see what Burns or Chryst can do.
Given your handle, I think the foregoing might be somewhat disingenuous.
[/quote]
Well he is passionate...
Re: Departures thread - pcgoode - 01-05-2015
Report that Peat will enter the draft:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000454480/article/report-stanford-ot-andrus-peat-will-enter-2015-nfl-draft?campaign=Twitter_nfl_cfb
Re: Departures thread - fullmetal - 01-05-2015
Sigh :( It had to happen at some point. Hulk's optimism about the team at the start of the 2014 season would be appropriate for the 2015 season, I think, and it's disappointing that Peat won't be there for that campaign.
Re: Departures thread - stupac2 - 01-05-2015
(01-05-2015, 12:34 PM)pcgoode link Wrote:Report that Peat will enter the draft:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000454480/article/report-stanford-ot-andrus-peat-will-enter-2015-nfl-draft?campaign=Twitter_nfl_cfb
I asked my draftnik friend about how seriously to take this, and she says that this reporter is reliable, and the report should be trusted with the "He hasn't made up his mind" caveat. So it definitely bodes poorly for him returning, but it's not the death knell yet.