Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-03-2026

I don't think so, Fukuyama actually predicted very well our current situation IMHO near the end of that book.

The full title of the book is "The End of History and the Last Man". When discussing the Last Man, Fukuyama had this to say.

Quote:Experience suggests that if men cannot struggle on behalf of a just cause because that just cause was victorious in an earlier generation, then they will struggle against the just cause. They will struggle for the sake of struggle. They will struggle, in other words, out of a certain boredom: for they cannot imagine living in a world without struggle. And if the greater part of the world in which they live is characterized by peaceful and prosperous liberal democracy, they then will struggle against that peace and prosperity, and against democracy.

You can read his own defense against the common attack that history didn't end, here

https://www.persuasion.community/p/boredom-at-the-end-of-history-part-i

.......

Iran hit a very pricey radar array in Qatar. I presume there is some redundancy, but could complicate air defenses further in the region.

https://x.com/sam_lair/status/2028961678776488111?s=20

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-03-2026

Wow, a Kuwaiti F18 took out the three F15s that crashed. Ooooooof.

https://x.com/laraseligman/status/2028993407230574677?s=20

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-us-strikes-2026/card/kuwaiti-fighter-jet-mistakenly-shot-down-american-f-15s-initial-reports-say-LNxcLizHKxbncWqJyqaU

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-03-2026

That’s going to be an interesting after action debrief.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-03-2026

(03-03-2026, 06:38 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Wow, a Kuwaiti F18 took out the three F15s that crashed. Ooooooof.

https://x.com/laraseligman/status/2028993407230574677?s=20

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-us-strikes-2026/card/kuwaiti-fighter-jet-mistakenly-shot-down-american-f-15s-initial-reports-say-LNxcLizHKxbncWqJyqaU

Probably was AIM-9s of some kind. Explains to some degree why everybody got out. A single pilot with bad situational awareness and an itchy trigger finger perhaps? Easy to suffer from information overload if you haven't practiced this air defense scenario often and comprehensively. Desert Flag exercises often stress offensive operations over defensive ones. Probably should re-think that.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-04-2026

https://www.twz.com/news-features/kuwaiti-f-a-18-hornet-responsible-for-shooting-down-three-usaf-f-15e-strike-eagles-report

This article makes some of the same points I did above. Doesn't mean we are correct, but it is confirmation that the analysis makes some sense. I initially ruled out an air-to-air missile because the weather was good and visibility was excellent. Since the AIM-9 is not a BVR weapon the pilot has to visually acquire the target. He should therefore be able to identify it, especially if he is very familiar with the target aircraft type. Any Kuwaiti pilot has seen F-15Es hundreds of times, probably daily. He has undoubtedly flown with them and against them in exercises. No plausible cause for an identification error under these circumstances.
 
Giving the Kuwaiti pilot the benefit of the doubt, he may have been firing at Shahed class drones but the missile was attracted by the much larger thermal signature of the F-15Es. Decoy  flares function in exactly that manner. The setup would have to be "just right" for this to happen, but it is possible.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Papa John - 03-04-2026

According to the AP, the Iran conflict could help Russia via higher oil and gas prices

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-04-2026

Yeah, I think Ukraine is definitely hurt by a protracted Iran conflict. Higher oil prices help Russia financially, and Gulf states exhausting their missile defense will reduce available supplies that Europe is trying to purchase for Ukraine. US, Israel, and Gulf states all have need for these limited resources, and may take priority from Ukraine. Taiwan of course also is trying to purchase more.

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Zelensky says Ukraine will send antidrone personnel to Gulf states to help.

Quote:Ukraine can contribute to protecting lives and stabilizing the situation. Partners are reaching out to us. I have tasked Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, together with intelligence agencies, the Minister of Defense, our military command, and the NSDC Secretary, to present options for assisting the relevant countries and to provide aid in a way that does not weaken our own defense here in Ukraine.

Our military possesses the necessary capabilities. Ukrainian experts will operate on-site, and teams are already coordinating these efforts. And we are ready to help protect lives, defend civilians, and support real efforts to stabilize the situation and, in particular, restore safe navigation in the region.

https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2029255372687474751?s=20

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-04-2026

Apparently in the month of February, Ukraine recaptured more territory than it gave up to Russia (source was NPR radio so I can’t link).

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-04-2026

(03-04-2026, 11:33 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Apparently in the month of February, Ukraine recaptured more territory than it gave up to Russia (source was NPR radio so I can’t link).

BC

From what I gather, Ukraine has counterattacked south of Pokrovsk. Small engagements, not necessarily fully controlling areas but expanding the "grey zone." Russia getting pushed back, but Ukraine not really consolidating, likely because they do not have sufficient infantry. Definitely still important, I think many observers had written off Pokrovsk a long time ago.

This thread has some more info, and good maps.

https://x.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/2028541769105723863?s=20

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-04-2026

I think it also speaks to Russia’s inability or unwillingness to push forward on the front lines.  It looks like it has been content to hit Ukraine’s energy infrastructure but either has had trouble or hasn’t wanted to capture more territory.

Regardless, the more Ukraine can frame this as a front lines stalemate the stronger its position at the negotiating table in countering the narrative that eventual Russian victory is inevitable so it might as well accede to Russia’s demands.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-05-2026

https://x.com/Aviation_Intel/status/2028986046302830733
 
Nice picture. The F-15E can carry lots of ordinance. However, an F-16 can carry "lots" as well. In Ukraine an F-16 probably would forgo the AIM-120s (for weight reduction) and carry only two AIM-9s. The AIM-9s are mostly for self-defense anyway. In the F-15E picture the AIM-120s are included mostly because those hard points can't be used for APKWS and the "goal" of the configuration was to highlight its carrying capacity :-). They are useful against larger conventional cruse missiles, like the KH-101 and Kalibr. They are massive overkill for Shahed/Geran-2. An F-16 can carry 42 APKWS, 6 pods of 7 missiles each. However, the APKWS can be carried in an "unusual" configuration of three pods to a hardpoint. See https://militarnyi.com/en/news/us-demonstrated-f-16-s-ability-to-carry-42-apkws-missiles-20-000-of-which-trump-took-from-ukraine/ The wingtip F-16 hard points can only carry AIM-9 or AIM-120 missiles.
 
The F-15E in the picture is "clean", i.e. it is not carrying conformal fuel tanks (CFT) or a centerline fuel tank. F-16s in Ukraine can definitely carry a centerline fuel tank and MAYBE CFTs. However, the Sniper pod has to go somewhere, and normally that is the centerline. I am not sure the older F-16s have the plumbing for CFTs. Fortunately the two inboard hardpoints can carry external fuel tanks on all models, as shown in the photo. Obviously Ukraine doesn't have tankers to support long-duration missions against Geran-2 class drones, so the F-16 will be limited in endurance by its fuel load. That said, such a configuration is formidable. Too bad there would be so few of them.
 
I suspect that right now the USAF is regretting not assigning more F-15Es (and other platforms) to anti-drone missions in protection of the Gulf States. Unlike Ukraine, the USAF has enough platforms and pilots. We just didn't bring enough of them and/or mis-allocated what we did bring. The consequences of not effectively protecting the Gulf States against Shahed class drones are now IMO threatening their willingness/ability to continue supporting US policy against Iran. The LNG shutdown definitely is hurting the world economy and European fuel supplies.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-05-2026

https://bsky.app/profile/thrustwr.bsky.social/post/3mge6ieywmk2v9

Quote:Probably first major US loss of the conflict when it comes to ballistic missile defense. One of TPY-2 radars belonging to the THAAD battery deployed to Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan seems to have been struck. The full radar set goes over $200M.

Looks like Iran or a proxy hit a THAAD battery radar in Jordan. Expensive loss. I'm honestly very surprised Iran hit this and the radar in Qatar. These should be assets that are heavily protected in a multilayered fashion.

....

To blunt energy costs rising from the closure of the Gulf, the US government has issued a waiver for India to buy Russian oil without sanction. Not great for Ukraine.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-06-2026

https://x.com/Blaxk__Bird/status/2029736103339774181?s=20

More video from the F-18 v F-15 fiasco. The Kuwaiti F18 was not far, close visual range. Very bizarre. Intentional?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-06-2026

(03-06-2026, 08:15 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://x.com/Blaxk__Bird/status/2029736103339774181?s=20

More video from the F-18 v F-15 fiasco. The Kuwaiti F18 was not far, close visual range. Very bizarre. Intentional?

I have avoided going there, but this has been a possibility all along. Others have been speculating on the internet, particularly when the cause of the shootdowns was identified as an F-18. It would only take one guy to do the deed. Much easier than getting a battery commander and some of his staff to "go along". As one blogger correctly pointed out this engagement was not "ripple fire" on one target. It would require three separate "designate-shoot" operations. Each time the pilot would have to focus on a target. One might argue the light should have come on at some point.
 
However, as others have also pointed out, the "fog of war" is real. We have no idea what link-16 data (if any) the pilot had. The pilot could (at least in theory) been shooting at drones flying at lower altitude that the F-15. The massively larger thermal signature may have pulled the AIM-9 off and captured its seeker. That does happen. OTOH the pilot should know what an F-15 looks like from a tail aspect. However, it COULD be confused with a MIG-29, which Iran does operate. Both have twin tails. An SU-24, another possible choice,  is much less likely because it has a single tail. Gun camera film would be nice to have so we could know exactly what he saw when he fired each missile. Not sure we will ever see it.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 82lsju - 03-06-2026

this is not going to help the Ukraine

U.S. grants waiver to India to buy Russian Oil

the initial waiver is for 30 days

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/05/us-waiver-india-russian-oil

and if the item below is true it is a little concerning and makes the above look like not a bright move

Quote: Russia is providing Iran with intelligence about the locations and movements of American troops, ships and aircraft, according to multiple people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue, the first indication that Moscow has sought to get involved in the war.
 
Much of the intelligence Russia has shared with Iran has been imagery from Moscow’s sophisticated constellation of overhead satellites, one of the people said. It is not clear what Russia is getting in return for the assistance.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/politics/russia-aiding-iran-targeting

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-06-2026

(03-06-2026, 08:27 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(03-06-2026, 08:15 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://x.com/Blaxk__Bird/status/2029736103339774181?s=20

More video from the F-18 v F-15 fiasco. The Kuwaiti F18 was not far, close visual range. Very bizarre. Intentional?

I have avoided going there, but this has been a possibility all along. Others have been speculating on the internet, particularly when the cause of the shootdowns was identified as an F-18. It would only take one guy to do the deed. Much easier than getting a battery commander and some of his staff to "go along". As one blogger correctly pointed out this engagement was not "ripple fire" on one target. It would require three separate "designate-shoot" operations. Each time the pilot would have to focus on a target. One might argue the light should have come on at some point.
 
However, as others have also pointed out, the "fog of war" is real. We have no idea what link-16 data (if any) the pilot had. The pilot could (at least in theory) been shooting at drones flying at lower altitude that the F-15. The massively larger thermal signature may have pulled the AIM-9 off and captured its seeker. That does happen. OTOH the pilot should know what an F-15 looks like from a tail aspect. However, it COULD be confused with a MIG-29, which Iran does operate. Both have twin tails. An SU-24, another possible choice,  is much less likely because it has a single tail. Gun camera film would be nice to have so we could know exactly what he saw when he fired each missile. Not sure we will ever see it.

In the words of Ian Fleming, “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action.” I didn’t want to go there either but…

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-06-2026

(03-06-2026, 11:05 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  

(03-06-2026, 08:27 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(03-06-2026, 08:15 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://x.com/Blaxk__Bird/status/2029736103339774181?s=20

More video from the F-18 v F-15 fiasco. The Kuwaiti F18 was not far, close visual range. Very bizarre. Intentional?

I have avoided going there, but this has been a possibility all along. Others have been speculating on the internet, particularly when the cause of the shootdowns was identified as an F-18. It would only take one guy to do the deed. Much easier than getting a battery commander and some of his staff to "go along". As one blogger correctly pointed out this engagement was not "ripple fire" on one target. It would require three separate "designate-shoot" operations. Each time the pilot would have to focus on a target. One might argue the light should have come on at some point.
 
However, as others have also pointed out, the "fog of war" is real. We have no idea what link-16 data (if any) the pilot had. The pilot could (at least in theory) been shooting at drones flying at lower altitude that the F-15. The massively larger thermal signature may have pulled the AIM-9 off and captured its seeker. That does happen. OTOH the pilot should know what an F-15 looks like from a tail aspect. However, it COULD be confused with a MIG-29, which Iran does operate. Both have twin tails. An SU-24, another possible choice,  is much less likely because it has a single tail. Gun camera film would be nice to have so we could know exactly what he saw when he fired each missile. Not sure we will ever see it.

In the words of Ian Fleming, “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action.” I didn’t want to go there either but…

BC

I have read a theory that since Kuwait had earlier pledged not to allow strikes against Iran from their territory, their pilots may not have been operating with expectation US aircraft would be there at all. I'm not sure I fully buy that, but it seems clear that the Gulf states were definitely not at all in the loop on this war from the beginning.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-06-2026

(03-06-2026, 11:14 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I have read a theory that since Kuwait had earlier pledged not to allow strikes against Iran from their territory, their pilots may not have been operating with expectation US aircraft would be there at all. I'm not sure I fully buy that, but it seems clear that the Gulf states were definitely not at all in the loop on this war from the beginning.

I don't buy it at all, for one very obvious reason. There is a major US air base in Kuwait, Ali Al Salem Air Base. This base hosts the the 386th Air Expeditionary Wing. The 386th operates F-15s and has been flying them out of that base for years. There definitely would be F-15s in the air even if they were in no way involved in strikes against Iran. For one thing, they could be protecting Kuwait against drones. US aircraft were in Kuwaiti skies all day every day, war or no war. Of course Kuwait should fully expect that.
 
While the Gulf States were not at totally in the loop on this war, they were briefed on it after it started. The Gulf States all did prepare to defend themselves, but hoped Iran would limit itself to striking US targets in Gulf State territory. Iran did not do that, so the Gulf States have been forced into this war. IMO the US made a serious error when it failed to provide the same level of protection to these states as it does Israel. Granted there are technical challenges in doing that, but since we have dragged these nations into a war they did not choose we owe them as much protection as possible. All these states fear and oppose Iran, so anything that brings Iran down, they favor. However, they do not favor it to the point they were willing to risk their population and economy enough to start a war over it. We have forced their hand. They don't like it. Qatar in particular has called for "de-escalation", meaning an end to the Gulf States involvement this war. We really, really, really don't want to lose access to these states as basing locations. Qatar was an "early adopter" of the concept while other Gulf States remained a bit stand-offish for quite a while. If they are unhappy, you can bet the other states are even more unhappy. It is EXTREMELY unwise to assume their fear of Iran will give the US carte blanche in starting wars. For many years they played both sides of the street. They might revert to that if things get any worse for them in this current war.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Papa John - 03-06-2026

Shifting the topic here, but animosity between the Hungarian and Ukrainian governments continues. On a related note, some Slavic leaders are siding more with Russia, such as Slovakia's prime minister and president. The Czech Republic's new prime minister, while not explicitly pro-Russian, favors reducing military and other aid to Ukraine and taking a more neutral stance on Putin's war. These newer developments are in addition to well-known, longer-established Putin-siders as in Belarus, Bulgaria, etc.

I guess the sense is that Russia is going to take over Ukraine sooner or later (probably later), so why poke the skunk?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-06-2026

Interesting article about the Russian economy, analigizing it to a climber in the “death zone” where the body metabolizes itself in order to survive.

You’ve been given free access to this story from The Economist as a gift. You can open the link five times within seven days. After that it will expire.

Russia’s economy has entered the death zone
https://economist.com/by-invitation/2026/02/16/russias-economy-has-entered-the-death-zone?giftId=NDU1YzEwYmEtNjFiOC00NmE2LWE0NjItZTM1YjQ3ZThjM2I1&utm_campaign=gifted_article

BC

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