Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-08-2026

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2030667250185699492?s=20

UAE Apache helicopters downing Iranian shahed drones

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 03-08-2026

(03-04-2026, 11:33 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Apparently in the month of February, Ukraine recaptured more territory than it gave up to Russia (source was NPR radio so I can’t link).

That's from Starlink cutting off Russian access and the ensuing Ukrainian offensive initiative, imo.  But as mentioned before, if it isn't a fatal blow to the Russian military, they will adapt and survive as an immune system does...

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 03-12-2026

Oy: U.S. lifts sanctions on Russian oil.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-12-2026

(03-12-2026, 07:54 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Oy: U.S. lifts sanctions on Russian oil.

Obviously this is indeed "bad" for Ukraine in the short term. The real question IMO is will the sanctions actually be re-imposed when the Iran situation is "resolved" and the Straits are open again. It would in no way surprise me if they are not. Of course it is also quite unclear how long the closure will last. It could  be quite prolonged if Iran wants it to be. https://time.com/article/2026/03/11/-it-is-so-much-worse-than-you-thought-classified-iran-briefings-leave-democrats-furious/ indicates the administration has no plan to re-open the Straits of Hormuz. It appears the assumption is that will somehow just happen on its own.
 
I wouldn't bet on that. Iran has demonstrated that it can hold the world hostage there, and they won't give up that leverage without a major quid-pro-quo. Of course, the US could force the Straits, but to do that would undoubtedly involve boots on the ground to occupy strategic locations on the coast of Iran. Without that, it would be impossible to stop Iran from attacking commercial shipping with cheap drones. It isn't a good idea at all to ad-lib such an operation. Inserting major naval combatants into the Gulf is a big strategic risk. It can be done, we have done it before. It is however not a task for amateurs.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 03-13-2026

Putin may enjoy the extra oil profits, but I don't think he's cheering the Maduro abduction and Khameini assassination.  Putin needs to hope the U.S. gets stuck in a quagmire in Iran (quite plausible) and/or that he can demonstrate to the U.S. that his replacement would be even worse than he is (also plausible).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-14-2026

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/ukraine-plan-cut-off-russia-080000050.html

It would appear that Ukraine has developed a SEDD (pronounced "said" :) capability that has somewhat freed Ukrainian long range "heavy" drones from the Russian anti-drone defenses. This capability is allowing Ukraine to precisely target Russian logistics GLOCs to a point that supporting the mass of infantry attacks Russia prefers is becoming difficult to impossible. This is a scaled down to drone size equivalent of the US/NATO SEAD capability/strategy.
 
Like many such news articles, I imagine this article is accurate as far as it goes. It does admit Ukraine cannot implement SEDD everywhere along the line of contact simultaneously. That is fine, as some areas are not being actively contested at any given time. The question of scale is still an open one however. If Russia can generate more offensives than Ukraine can use SEDD to counter, Ukraine still has problems. The danger of Russia developing a copy-cat version is also real. However, IMO we can definitely take the Ukraine's new capability as a big positive. It won't stop Russia's drone/missile offensive against Ukraine, but it has a chance of stopping the grinding infantry war, at least for a while.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Papa John - 03-16-2026

Meanwhile in Ukraine...

According to the AP:

* Zelenskyy says that he wants trilateral peace talks with the US and Russia, but Russia has not agreed.
* He is concerned about the effect of the Middle East conflict on Ukraine's air defense stockpiles.
* Zelenskyy insists that the US has reached out to Ukraine about its drone technology, in spite of comments by POTUS that the US doesn't need Ukraine's help on drone defense.
* Ukraine is in no hurry to reopen the Druzhba pipeline, which until late January transported Russian oil to Slovakia and Hungary. Hungary in particular is acting out (my term).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-16-2026

(03-16-2026, 10:20 AM)Papa John Wrote:  Meanwhile in Ukraine...
* Ukraine is in no hurry to reopen the Druzhba pipeline, which until late January transported Russian oil to Slovakia and Hungary. Hungary in particular is acting out (my term).

Ukraine is indeed in no hurry to supply Russia with additional revenue. However Orbán  does indeed have a real and serious problem with being cut off from Russian oil. This has been an ongoing issue for which there is no solution that pleases both Ukraine and Hungary. Orbán isn't just playing to his base. Obviously his position is indeed popular with his partisan supporters, but the problem is very real.
 
The EU can't solve it by throwing money at the problem because the Hungarian oil industry can't ever compete successfully with other EU states that have a seacoast. Being landlocked, Hungarian refineries would always pay significantly more for oil imported by sea that the competition that is not. The equalizer in the past was cheap Russian oil imported cheaply via a pipeline. Without that option, there is no Hungarian oil industry. That isn't palatable to Orbán and most Hungarians. This is in addition to the problem that the existing major refinery in Hungary is not set up to refine anything but Russian oil. While modifications are underway they are not complete and not designed to have the full capacity of the existing refinery. The obvious reason for this is the necessary capital investment would be pointless given the competitive disadvantage of the resulting refinery capacity.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-16-2026

My understanding is that the pipeline was damaged by Russian drones so I think it is a bit much to ask Ukraine to expend resources to fix a pipeline that benefits its enemy.  Zelenskyy has said that he doesn’t want to do it but may not have a choice if European aid is conditioned upon it.

BC

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One additional aspect is that Hungary will hold elections mid-April.  Opinion polls consistently show the opposition party with a lead, but Hungary’s system gives Fidesz (Orban’s party) a structural advantage.

Hungary's opposition Tisza party maintains lead as election nears, poll shows - https://www.reuters.com/world/hungarys-opposition-tisza-party-maintains-lead-election-nears-poll-shows-2026-03-11/

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-16-2026

(03-16-2026, 12:14 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  My understanding is that the pipeline was damaged by Russian drones so I think it is a bit much to ask Ukraine to expend resources to fix a pipeline that benefits its enemy.

Legally, I am sure that is true. In fact, due to the state of war between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine could definitely justify shutting down the pipeline even if it was working perfectly. That said, the politics of the situation is fraught. Ukraine has attempted to solve the political problem by destroying the Russian pipeline before it enters Ukraine. That would arguably not be Ukraine's "fault", but just a part of the war.  Unfortunately that didn't wash. Ukraine was cajoled into not repearing such strikes.

Quote:Zelenskyy has said that he doesn’t want to do it but may not have a choice if European aid is conditioned upon it.

BC

It is actually more complex than that. The EU may not make that choice a formal requirement but instead just tell Zelenskyy privately that is de facto the case.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - admin - 03-17-2026

In an effort to focus the board more closely on Stanford sports, issues related to Stanford, and college sports issues, especially those that impact Stanford, I will be closing this thread on this war.

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