Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-24-2022

Russia has supplied money/loans to far right populists in lots of countries. Austria, France, Italy I know of off the top of my head. Not certain if Orban or his party have been paid for. I agree that far-left critiques of Western support for Ukraine probably comes from an anti-US/NATO place but horseshoe theory is a real phenomenon probably for several reasons. 

Of course Russia has also paid people of other political leanings too. This article on the former Chancellor of Germany Schroder, a social Democrat, was very good (maybe posted earlier in thread? Apologies if so).

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/23/world/europe/schroder-germany-russia-gas-ukraine-war-energy.html

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-24-2022

Yeah, definitely agree that Schroeder basically (apologize for the crudeness, but there is no other way to say it) whored himself out for Russian money. Germany as a whole, and Merkel specifically, pursued a rather misguided policy vis a vis Russia (at least with the benefit of hindsight), and they are paying for it now.  And these are mainstream German parties, so your point is well-taken.

I do think extremist parties seem to be more vulnerable to Russian influence.

BC

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[tweet]https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1518316205156835334?s=21&t=9xKY4aHUzH8U3e-UNupKTQ[/tweet]

Laughed out loud at that one.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-24-2022

(04-24-2022, 04:35 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Yeah, definitely agree that Schroeder basically (apologize for the crudeness, but there is no other way to say it) whored himself out for Russian money. Germany as a whole, and Merkel specifically, pursued a rather misguided policy vis a vis Russia (at least with the benefit of hindsight), and they are paying for it now.  And these are mainstream German parties, so your point is well-taken.

I do think extremist parties seem to be more vulnerable to Russian influence.

BC

The policy Germany pursued in the 90s vis a vis Russia arguably made sense. It was important that Germany successfully re-unite and do so in a way that did not threaten Russia. Germany inherited the forces of the DDR. There was no need to maintain anything like the combined strength of the two countries. Germany also spent a lot of money helping former Warsaw Pact countries rebuild their economies. The problem emerged early on that Germany also intended to benefit by the new arrangement and cash in a "permanent peace dividend". After about 2000 this was a very questionable policy. Merkel continued the "Don't Scare The Bear" policy long after it made no strategic sense. This was very much a Merkel policy and was well understood in defense circles at the time as a bad idea. This wasn't hindsight. The problem was very few cared, either in Washington or especially in Germany. The fiction that Russia was just like any other country was considered essential to German prosperity. As has been recently pointed out in Germany by Germans, Germany made a fortune exporting products made with "reasonably priced" Russian gas and oil.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-24-2022

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1518387953818652673?s=20&t=rCLthYUMQRueXJ1A78kNJg[/tweet]

More explosions and fires at Russian strategic facilities, this time oil depots and refineries in Bryansk. Not too close to the Ukrainian border, about halfway between Kiev in Moscow.

Don't think this is accidental given the multiple fires at different locations. Ukrainian saboteurs or sympathetic Russians seems likely.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - slide - 04-24-2022

(04-24-2022, 04:35 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Yeah, definitely agree that Schroeder basically (apologize for the crudeness, but there is no other way to say it) whored himself out for Russian money. Germany as a whole, and Merkel specifically, pursued a rather misguided policy vis a vis Russia (at least with the benefit of hindsight), and they are paying for it now.  And these are mainstream German parties, so your point is well-taken.

I do think extremist parties seem to be more vulnerable to Russian influence.

BC

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[tweet]https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1518316205156835334?s=21&t=9xKY4aHUzH8U3e-UNupKTQ[/tweet]

Laughed out loud at that one.

BC

good one from DarthPutin.

on Schroeder, the kindest description I've heard that is apt is "feckless"

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-24-2022

(04-24-2022, 05:43 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  More explosions and fires at Russian strategic facilities, this time oil depots and refineries in Bryansk. Not too close to the Ukrainian border, about halfway between Kiev in Moscow.



Don't think this is accidental given the multiple fires at different locations. Ukrainian saboteurs or sympathetic Russians seems likely.

I don't think it is accidental either. Ukraine undoubtedly has many citizens that can easily pass as Russians. The opportunities for sabotage are clearly there. There are undoubtedly many Russians who work in important industries that have family or friends in Ukraine. Those people way be willing and able to do a lot of damage, either on their own or under Ukrainian direction. I suspect there are also lots of little acts of "sabotage" by sympathetic Russians that just make "errors" in doing their jobs. Nothing dramatic as these fires, but small things that create "friction". These things can add up.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 04-24-2022

(04-24-2022, 05:43 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  [Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1518387953818652673?s=20&t=rCLthYUMQRueXJ1A78kNJg[/tweet]

More explosions and fires at Russian strategic facilities, this time oil depots and refineries in Bryansk. Not too close to the Ukrainian border, about halfway between Kiev in Moscow.

Don't think this is accidental given the multiple fires at different locations. Ukrainian saboteurs or sympathetic Russians seems likely.

This also could be a false flag operation by Russia.  It was reported a couple days ago that Russians had gathered pieces of wreckages from crashed Ukrainian helicopters for a potential false flag operation in the future.  We shall see...

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-24-2022

I’m not sure how it would help Russia.  The two countries are already at war, and an operation to exaggerate Ukrainian capabilities would probably backfire.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 04-24-2022

(04-24-2022, 06:45 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I’m not sure how it would help Russia.  The two countries are already at war, and an operation to exaggerate Ukrainian capabilities would probably backfire.

BC

I couldn't fully guess Russian logic on this, and there have been recent attacks in Russia on military industry buildings, so it's possible these are all Ukrainian saboteurs, or Russians who are sympathetic to Ukraine.  If it was a false flag operation, I guess the logic behind it could be to try and draw more local support, by making it seem like the Ukrainians are trying to kill Russian civilians.  I know it's mostly assumed that Russians support the war by a strong majority, but if there were rumors of that changing, this might keep up that support.  It's also been rumored that Russia might fully declare war, instead of just conducting a special military operation.  I'm not sure what difference that makes, given they have a majority of their combat troops in Ukraine right now, but maybe they would try to have their allies support them more, but who know.s.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-24-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1517877185322827777?s=21&t=9xKY4aHUzH8U3e-UNupKTQ[/tweet]

https://youtu.be/eqyUAtzS_6M

A bit inappropriate, I will grant, and yet I can’t help but thinking of the song.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-24-2022

(04-24-2022, 06:50 PM)Treefence Wrote:  

(04-24-2022, 06:45 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I’m not sure how it would help Russia.  The two countries are already at war, and an operation to exaggerate Ukrainian capabilities would probably backfire.

BC

I couldn't fully guess Russian logic on this, and there have been recent attacks in Russia on military industry buildings, so it's possible these are all Ukrainian saboteurs, or Russians who are sympathetic to Ukraine.  If it was a false flag operation, I guess the logic behind it could be to try and draw more local support, by making it seem like the Ukrainians are trying to kill Russian civilians.  I know it's mostly assumed that Russians support the war by a strong majority, but if there were rumors of that changing, this might keep up that support.  It's also been rumored that Russia might fully declare war, instead of just conducting a special military operation.  I'm not sure what difference that makes, given they have a majority of their combat troops in Ukraine right now, but maybe they would try to have their allies support them more, but who know.s.

An actual declaration of war (this is still a "special military operation") would be required for Russia to legally institute a national draft to significantly boost their army with conscripts. Right now there are conscripts, but they only serve a 1 year term of service.

So the thinking behind a false flag would be to steel Russian's resolve for a long war with even more sacrifice. Not sure it makes sense in this context though. A blown up apartment building can get you more bodies without losing military and economically useful resources.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-24-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1517948630702993409?s=21&t=9xKY4aHUzH8U3e-UNupKTQ[/tweet]

Major kudos for the Red October reference.

BC

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(04-24-2022, 06:58 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  So the thinking behind a false flag would be to steel Russian's resolve for a long war with even more sacrifice. Not sure it makes sense in this context though. A blown up apartment building can get you more bodies without losing military and economically useful resources.

Exactly, blowing up an apartment complex to justify a war is straight out of Putin’s playbook.

https://web.archive.org/web/20200417140025/https://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-1999-russian-apartment-bombings-led-to-putins-rise-to-power-2018-3

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 04-24-2022

(04-24-2022, 06:59 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  [tweet]https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1517948630702993409?s=21&t=9xKY4aHUzH8U3e-UNupKTQ[/tweet]

Major kudos for the Red October reference.

BC

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(04-24-2022, 06:58 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  So the thinking behind a false flag would be to steel Russian's resolve for a long war with even more sacrifice. Not sure it makes sense in this context though. A blown up apartment building can get you more bodies without losing military and economically useful resources.

Exactly, blowing up an apartment complex to justify a war is straight out of Putin’s playbook.

https://web.archive.org/web/20200417140025/https://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-1999-russian-apartment-bombings-led-to-putins-rise-to-power-2018-3

BC

That all makes sense and is likely right.  I think part of the reason it came to my mind, is it sounded like one of the oil sites hit was very close to residential housing, so maybe the fire "accidentally" spreads to residential buildings and gets the desired effect.  At this point that's probably giving Russian planning too much credit though.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-25-2022

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1518471377728282625?s=20&t=Ej6PLTkrIf8_3iePRv8SRg[/tweet]

Maybe not saboteurs. Ukraine must be using these Tochka's very judiciously, since resupply is probably harder than all their other Soviet legacy weapons. Perhaps they are able to refurbish old retired stocks from former Soviet states but there can't be that many of them. Crazy that we're a couple months in and Ukraine is still seemingly firing ballistic missiles at targets in Russia.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-25-2022

In the ongoing evolution of the West's posture, Lloyd Austin said at a press conference to recap his recent visit that the "we want to see Russia weakened . . . "  Add this to the list of statements that are probably obvious but had been left unsaid for strategic reasons.  I'll catalog it with Biden's statement that Putin is a war criminal who must go.  I'm not sure whether this type of statement is prudent or whether it creates a reasonable likelihood of triggering Putin, but in either event the statement is notable.  Also, it's interesting to me that the world now views Putin as being such a snowflake that he could be triggered by derrogatory statements made by Americans.  Probably most relevant going forward, however, is the transparency we're hearing from the American administration on everything from intelligence to arms transfers to strategic objectives.  There are pros and cons to this approach that are beyond my ability to evaluate, so I'm just reporting this new event that supports the observation that others have made during this "special military operation" without a normative judgment as to whether it's good or bad.  

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1518593797323644928?cxt=HHwWgICz-ejAkJMqAAAA

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-25-2022

I had previously posted that I believed Russia's ability to affect Ukraine's ability to use their railroads was not zero but probably survivable. Unfortunately, I was forgetting two important things. It is true that bombing railroad tracks is a losing bet unless you can keep it up continuously. Tracks are relatively easy to repair.

The US hadn't had much luck knocking out railroads since they used strategic bombers for a month to do so as in WW II. In Vietnam, we got so frustrated trying to knock down the Long Bien Bridge that the laser guided bomb was developed to do so. (Maybe some "tall tale" there). Ukraine has lots of rivers. Rivers need railroad bridges. Repairing railroad bridges is neither quick nor easy. In WW II and even later, hitting a bridge with a bomb was real hard. You could do it, but it took lots of attempts and you would lose a lot of people. Not anymore. PGMs can do the job easily and from a long distance. Today the Russian's were hitting "critical infrastructure" on the railroads. Maybe they finally figured it out. Hopefully they haven't, but they probably will.

Ukraine also has electrified many of it's rail lines. This was not typical of France or Germany in WW II. Steam engines pulling relatively short trains were pretty much universal. It matters because electric railways have fixed location transformer sites to supply the current for tracks. These sites supply power for relatively long sections of track. Destroy one and that section of track isn't usable until the power supply is replaced. These sites (usually autotransformers on the local power grid) are big, heavy, and don't fail real often. There aren't lots of spare ones laying around. This also is a vulnerability. These sites are also much more fragile than a bridge, so a smaller warhead can be used.

So, the news on using railroads to distribute supplies in Ukraine isn't all good. We may end up needing to supply lots of trucks and fuel to move the weapons being supplied. Let's hope the Russian's just can't manage to hit enough bridges and power distribution points.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-25-2022

Russia is for sure going after rail supply lines in the Donbas:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1518602047666688000?cxt=HHwWgMDU5YahlJMqAAAA

I don’t see info on whether Russia is trying, or succeeding, in knocking out rail lines deeper in Ukrainian controlled territory.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 04-25-2022

(04-23-2022, 01:56 PM)bl82 Wrote:  Great Twitter thread on Russia-Ukraine by Michael Kofman that begins with:

"Without national mobilization, I think the Donbas is the last major offensive the Russian military can attempt given the current state & availability of forces. Whether it succeeds, or fails, the Russian military will be largely exhausted in terms of offensive potential."

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1517856534293848065

Given what are reported to be Russian goals in Moldova, I imagine we can expect national conscription shortly with conscripts even more on the firing lines.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 04-25-2022

Stanford Blood Center sent out a note today saying they would make a $10 contribution to

      BloodSuppliesUkraine.com

for each donor who registers April 26 - May 6  at

      stanfordbloodcenter.org/ukraine  
You can also give directly to that organization.  (I haven't vetted that organization personally.)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-25-2022

(04-25-2022, 11:27 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Russia is for sure going after rail supply lines in the Donbas:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1518602047666688000?cxt=HHwWgMDU5YahlJMqAAAA

I don’t see info on whether Russia is trying, or succeeding, in knocking out rail lines deeper in Ukrainian controlled territory.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/kosmosdemon/status/1518768683316830208?s=20&t=lk8IAMwTszs6graeogbZrg[/tweet]

Russia might be hitting things but doesn't seem to be knocking out rail lines for long.

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