Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-03-2022

Treefence, I sure hope that your prediction turns out to be true. Note from the ISW update yesterday, which I linked above, that Ukraine reported incurring heavy losses to retake a tow on the outskirts of Kharkiv. That may be worth the cost considering that control of the town may protect Kharkiv from shelling, but it’s a warning sign as well. Retaking land is difficult when the occupier has had sufficient time to take a defensive position. Maybe this phenomenon will be less true in areas further from the Russian border or after a longer time period of occupation. That has to be the hope.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 05-03-2022

(05-03-2022, 10:17 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Treefence, I sure hope that your prediction turns out to be true. Note from the ISW update yesterday, which I linked above, that Ukraine reported incurring heavy losses to retake a tow on the outskirts of Kharkiv. That may be worth the cost considering that control of the town may protect Kharkiv from shelling, but it’s a warning sign as well. Retaking land is difficult when the occupier has had sufficient time to take a defensive position. Maybe this phenomenon will be less true in areas further from the Russian border or after a longer time period of occupation. That has to be the hope.

I hope so too.  And let me clarify, while I think after a few weeks, the Ukrainians will begin pushing back, I have no predictions on how long it will take.  It would be lovely if we see massive withdrawals by Russians, like we did after the first phase of the war, but think it's more likely that Ukrainians will have to take back their land, and it will lead to many casualties, on both sides.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-03-2022

(05-03-2022, 10:14 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  They are using expensive antiship missiles in a secondary land attack role, probably because they are starting to run low on their typical guided cruise and ballistic missiles.

You noticed that too. It is really dumb because the anti-ship missiles are not precision land attack missiles. They are designed to fly to approximately a point where their target shout be "visible" and then lock on to the target using radar/optical sensors. Land attack isn't their thing.

Quote:Look to Afghanistan or Vietnam for guides of how it goes for an occupying imperial power. And Ukraine is a lot bigger and getting better more and better gear than either of those.

I don't think the analogies hold. Both Afghanistan and Vietnam were primarily agrarian societies that were not democracies. Ukraine is very different. Do not underestimate how much a decline in their standard of living will affect their perception of their government. Even the Vietnamese government agreed that their people would have stopped fighting if the had the ability to make that free choice. Vietnam and Afghanistan could conduct their "normal" economic activities pretty much unmolested during the war. The US did not cut Vietnam off from commerce, nor did Russia stop the opium trade (or any other trade AFAIK) in Afghanistan. Ukraine OTOH right now is economically wrecked and it isn't getting better. Russia is blowing things up at random and wrecking entire cities. The ports are blockaded. Totally different situation.

The fact Ukraine is getting support from the west also probably will not continue at the current level over the long hall. We will lose interest. Ukraine needs to end this war, and fortunately Russia appears to be running through it's martial resources at an alarming rate. Eventually a tipping point will be reached. The 3:1 attacker vs defender ratio does not apply to a rout. Hundreds of POWs are often guarded by a few guys. Iraqi infantry companies surrendered to a Blackhawk. Russian morale isn't great right now. Imagine what it will be like when it is clear they are getting beat. This is the way to victory. If, OTOH, the tipping point isn't reached within about a year, Ukraine is toast IMHO.

If the Russian leadership foresees  their troops are nearing collapse, they may be willing to negotiate a return to 24 Feb boundaries, fearing a worse outcome if the war continues. For Russia, keeping Crimea is an absolute requirement. The rest is fundamentally negotiable IMHO, given that they realize eradicating Ukraine is impossible. Putin will be gone by that time.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-03-2022

Goose that post seems internally inconsistent. Ukraine is on a path to being a non-viable country in a year, but Russian troops will recognize they’re being routed and withdraw before then, leading to Putin’s demise. I’m less confident than you that any particular outcome will or won’t happen.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-03-2022

(05-03-2022, 12:38 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Goose that post seems internally inconsistent. Ukraine is on a path to being a non-viable country in a year, but Russian troops will recognize they’re being routed and withdraw before then, leading to Putin’s demise. I’m less confident than you that any particular outcome will or won’t happen.

I am not confident of any particular outcome either. However, my point was that Ukraine is presently not a viable country economically. It cannot sustain itself indefinitely in that configuration. It is already asking both the US and the IMF for very big money. They can't endure a long war.

However, Russia is expending lots of it's military strength trying to occupy more Ukrainian territory. They have kind of put themselves in the "victory or death" mode, because if Russia goes on the defensive it will have to admit to it's populace that it failed in the objective to seize the Donbas. It will also have to defend against a Ukraine that has high morale with competent leadership and ever improving weapons. Russia itself will have decreasing morale and fewer weapons. It is a race. If Russia keeps attacking, the possibility of a collapse in the near term is there. If Russia goes on the defensive, the possibility of a collapse is still there (because why die in a war that you are losing), but it will possibly take longer. However, internal unrest in Russia becomes more probable too.

So, what happens? My guess is that if Russia does collapse on the Ukraine front or on the domestic political front in the next 12 months, Ukraine "wins", meaning at least substantially the borders of 24 Feb and rebuilding with mostly Russian money. If not, Ukraine will be in an economic position that will result in it's military collapse or political compromise with Russia, both of which will lead to its eclipse as an independent state (the latter not immediately, but sooner or later). I don't see this settling down to a low intensity extended war, because Ukraine can't do that economically. Ukraine would still be unable to export by sea and subject to missile bombardment. Russia would suffer neither. Russia also probably can't  continue indefinitely but it can continue economically longer than Ukraine can. The effect of sanctions and ending energy exports could also move Russia towards economic problems too, but since they aren't a democracy that won't be governing.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-03-2022

I don't think any Ukrainian politician is winning on a platform of signing a treaty with Russia any time soon. They are a democracy, but the populace is pissed off and rightfully so after all the Russian atrocities. Maybe after 2024 the US might turn off the money depending on domestic politics, but that's still a ways away.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Softball Fan - 05-03-2022

The big unknown is Putin's mindset.  Here is my crazy opinion.  I don't think Putin will accept defeat.  If things go really poorly and Ukraine starts to push conventional Russian forces out of its territory I expect Putin will use chemical weapons.  If that's not enough he'll start using tactical nuclear weapons.  It's not going to end well.

There's no way Putin says to his population, "OK we lost, all that was for nothing.  Let's move on".    Also if the war ends Putin knows at this point the West will hunt him down, put him in jail, and charge him with war crimes.  IMO Putin would rather start WWIII than be imprisoned for war crimes.  This scenario is still many months out. 

I  don't know the answer.   At the moment IMO the only hope is someone high up in the Russian military decides to take out Putin.  That seems like a remote possibility.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-03-2022

(05-03-2022, 01:43 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I don't think any Ukrainian politician is winning on a platform of signing a treaty with Russia any time soon. They are a democracy, but the populace is pissed off and rightfully so after all the Russian atrocities. Maybe after 2024 the US might turn off the money depending on domestic politics, but that's still a ways away.

The US isn't yet supplying the money. Neither is anybody else. The economic support required for Ukraine will make the 33 billion in military support look like a drop in the bucket. Ukraine has already asked back in March for 50 billion just to fix their shortfall to that point. It says nothing about trying to run their economy, which will shrink by at least 50% this year. The Ukraine GDP is normally over 150 Billion per year. That doesn't include the "extraordinary costs" of running this war, like repair destroyed infrastructure and housing necessary to having any GDP. That is the money that is needed to keep the population somewhat optimistic. Without it, things can go south fast.

I think we all need to realize that Ukraine has a long history of being on the short end of the stick with Russia. While that makes many Ukrainian people mad, it also makes many people fatalistic. Many of what I consider to be defects in Russian society also exist in Ukraine. They can accept many things that we in the west would never tolerate. It wasn't that long ago Ukraine has a pro-Russian government. While I completely admire what Ukraine is doing, I think much of it relies on Zelenskyy's leadership. Sadly, in some ways he is their Putin. He is a good Tsar instead of a bad Tsar. If he is killed, or falls out of the public's favor, all bets are off IMHO. What I have said here is of course an over-simplification. Ukraine has changed since 2014 and it has changed again since Feb 24, 2022. How deep those changes are remains to be seen, but so far they are holding up.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-03-2022

I agree with dabigv; it’s one thing to turn against your government for a collapse in standard of living when it is waging a war a half world away; it’s another when you see images of your countrymen being massacred in the streets.  I think even if Zolensky were inclined to aggressively pursue a negotiated peace, I don’t think a large segment of his population would approve it. Right now, he would be thrown out for not taking a hard enough line, not for taking too hard a line.

It will take Russian capitulation (at a minimum, return to 2/24 borders) or the Ukrainians being routed in combat and a Russian tanks in the streets of Kiev for the Ukrainians to sign a peace treaty at the barrel of a gun. Barring that, even if Zelensky did sign something, I suspect he’d have a hard time selling it to his people.

One positive for Ukraine is that despite reports of their “undying friendship”, it looks like the Chinese have quietly left Putin and the Russians twisting in the wind…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1521424344039231489?s=21&t=u1_fmFTMt1n4M0mJ_dxtsw[/tweet]

Maybe the Chinese are eyeing some of the resource rich but now poorly defended territory in Siberia?

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-03-2022

(05-03-2022, 03:00 PM)paloalto Wrote:  The big unknown is Putin's mindset.  Here is my crazy opinion.  I don't think Putin will accept defeat.  If things go really poorly and Ukraine starts to push conventional Russian forces out of its territory I expect Putin will use chemical weapons.  If that's not enough he'll start using tactical nuclear weapons.  It's not going to end well.

There's no way Putin says to his population, "OK we lost, all that was for nothing.  Let's move on".    Also if the war ends Putin knows at this point the West will hunt him down, put him in jail, and charge him with war crimes.  IMO Putin would rather start WWIII than be imprisoned for war crimes.  This scenario is still many months out. 

I  don't know the answer.   At the moment IMO the only hope is someone high up in the Russian military decides to take out Putin.  That seems like a remote possibility.

I basically agree with you about Putin. However, I am more optimistic that there are people in the Russian government/military that at some point will decide the risk of continuing to go along with Putin outweighs the risk of getting rid of him. These people are undoubtedly not "nice guys", but in the typical Russian manner self-interest eventually will dictate a change in leadership. If Putin attempts to use nuclear weapons, I am pretty sure somebody would take him out. Chemical weapons in Ukraine are a 50-50 on that, because the Putin opponents don't quite know what the US will do. Tac nuclear will undoubtedly spark a response that will cost Russia (especially the Russian military) dearly. They also know that the whole thing can spiral out of control. Putin may have nothing to lose, but others do.

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(05-03-2022, 04:18 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I agree with dabigv; it’s one thing to turn against your government for a collapse in standard of living when it is waging a war a half world away; it’s another when you see images of your countrymen being massacred in the streets.  I think even if Zolensky were inclined to aggressively pursue a negotiated peace, I don’t think a large segment of his population would approve it. Right now, he would be thrown out for not taking a hard enough line, not for taking too hard a line.

That is because you think like a member of the western world. Remember, their own government did that to Ukrainians when Stalin was around. Yes, there was resistance, but the vast majority Ukrainians still supported their government in WW II. AN-XXX airplanes were built in Ukraine. So was Moskva. The Ukrainians elected Yanukovych. It was a fair election. Right now, Zelenskyy would be thrown out for not taking a hard enough line if he tried to sign a treaty. In 9 months that can be very different, especially if the high expectations of "prompt" victory are not met and Ukrainians are still dying in the streets.

Quote:One positive for Ukraine is that despite reports of their “undying friendship”, it looks like the Chinese have quietly left Putin and the Russians twisting in the wind…




Maybe the Chinese are eyeing some of the resource rich but now poorly defended territory in Siberia?



BC

Maybe, but I expect it is a more simple explanation. They asked "What benefit do we gain by helping Russia?". The answer was basically nothing. Putin is not a friend of China. He is a friend of Putin. Being "closer" to Russia is being chained to a country that isn't a good customer and won't really offer China anything gratis. Anything they need from Russia they can just buy, as Russia needs the money. The price probably goes down if Russia loses in Ukraine because Russia will need the money even more. Better for China if that happens.

OTOH, pissing off the EU and the US is making your best trading partners even madder at you than they are already. No reason to do that. It is just a simple benefit/cost analysis.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 05-04-2022

The Cold War is upon us again, only this time, it'll be way worse for Russia. It may win some battled for territory in Ukraine, but it's going to lose the larger geopolitical economic war over the long haul.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1521768737686409216[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 05-04-2022

China's probably a little preoccupied with covid lockdowns and growing discontent there.  But if this invasion outlasts Western attention spans, then perhaps China will leverage an isolated Russian economy for good deals.  China can bide their time, not angering their trade partners, and still take advantage of the situation later.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-04-2022

(05-04-2022, 06:56 AM)fullmetal Wrote:  China's probably a little preoccupied with covid lockdowns and growing discontent there.  But if this invasion outlasts Western attention spans, then perhaps China will leverage an isolated Russian economy for good deals.  China can bide their time, not angering their trade partners, and still take advantage of the situation later.

True! It is also true that if Russia changes governments and the sanctions are removed, China can still get good deals. The EU may be unwilling to take a chance on Russia again so soon after this mess, but China OTOH would have every reason to do so.

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It would appear that to a large extent Russian aviation is indeed sitting this one out.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-fires-over-20-missiles-210310773.html
They have sort of adopted their own "no fly" zone. Very strange. I would expect the other services are saying WTFO? It is not as if Ukraine is impenetrable to air attack. The Russian air force just appears to not be doing it. As I said, they are smarter on average than the rest.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BigJohn043 - 05-04-2022

(05-03-2022, 01:31 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(05-03-2022, 12:38 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Goose that post seems internally inconsistent. Ukraine is on a path to being a non-viable country in a year, but Russian troops will recognize they’re being routed and withdraw before then, leading to Putin’s demise. I’m less confident than you that any particular outcome will or won’t happen.

I am not confident of any particular outcome either. However, my point was that Ukraine is presently not a viable country economically. It cannot sustain itself indefinitely in that configuration. It is already asking both the US and the IMF for very big money. They can't endure a long war.

However, Russia is expending lots of it's military strength trying to occupy more Ukrainian territory. They have kind of put themselves in the "victory or death" mode, because if Russia goes on the defensive it will have to admit to it's populace that it failed in the objective to seize the Donbas. It will also have to defend against a Ukraine that has high morale with competent leadership and ever improving weapons. Russia itself will have decreasing morale and fewer weapons. It is a race. If Russia keeps attacking, the possibility of a collapse in the near term is there. If Russia goes on the defensive, the possibility of a collapse is still there (because why die in a war that you are losing), but it will possibly take longer. However, internal unrest in Russia becomes more probable too.

So, what happens? My guess is that if Russia does collapse on the Ukraine front or on the domestic political front in the next 12 months, Ukraine "wins", meaning at least substantially the borders of 24 Feb and rebuilding with mostly Russian money. If not, Ukraine will be in an economic position that will result in it's military collapse or political compromise with Russia, both of which will lead to its eclipse as an independent state (the latter not immediately, but sooner or later). I don't see this settling down to a low intensity extended war, because Ukraine can't do that economically. Ukraine would still be unable to export by sea and subject to missile bombardment. Russia would suffer neither. Russia also probably can't  continue indefinitely but it can continue economically longer than Ukraine can. The effect of sanctions and ending energy exports could also move Russia towards economic problems too, but since they aren't a democracy that won't be governing.

The ability of UKR to push the Russians back is highly dependent on the area.

UKR is already pushing back the Russian army around Kharkiv.  In fact, given the rivers and the bridges the Russian army is in a tricky spot here and it may become a full on rout in coming weeks.

OTOH, in the south the UKR army is making gains around Kherson as well.  The issue is that it would be pretty easy for Russia to retreat from Kherson, blow the bridges across the Dnipro river, and have a very easily defended line.  It would be extremely hard for UKR to penetrate this line and that line would protect much of the land bridge between Crimea and the Dombas.

The question is what happens in the Dombas.    The Russian offensive there has made only limited gains.  I can certainly see a situation there where they just fall back to the heavily fortified pre-Feb lines.  But this is likely the decisive battle.

UKR would then have the option of attacking towards Mariupol from the North rather than the West.

One of the issues is that it is much harder to hold land with a civilian population against you.....

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-04-2022

(05-04-2022, 08:43 AM)BigJohn043 Wrote:  The ability of UKR to push the Russians back is highly dependent on the area.


UKR is already pushing back the Russian army around Kharkiv.  In fact, given the rivers and the bridges the Russian army is in a tricky spot here and it may become a full on rout in coming weeks.



OTOH, in the south the UKR army is making gains around Kherson as well.  The issue is that it would be pretty easy for Russia to retreat from Kherson, blow the bridges across the Dnipro river, and have a very easily defended line.  It would be extremely hard for UKR to penetrate this line and that line would protect much of the land bridge between Crimea and the Dombas.



The question is what happens in the Dombas.    The Russian offensive there has made only limited gains.  I can certainly see a situation there where they just fall back to the heavily fortified pre-Feb lines.  But this is likely the decisive battle.



UKR would then have the option of attacking towards Mariupol from the North rather than the West.



One of the issues is that it is much harder to hold land with a civilian population against you.....

I think you are mostly correct. At one point the UKR was doing well around Kherson but as probably shifted troops North to the Donbas region. While an opposed river crossing of  the Dnipro wouldn't be easy, it can be done. Failure by Russia in the Donbas would IMHO allow Ukraine to take back the area around Mariupol and break the land bridge. Coming down from the North would avoid the hardest part of recovering Kherson Oblast. As you rightly point out, winning in Donbas is the most important thing now. If that happens, many things may be possible.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Leftcoast - 05-04-2022

I suspect China is in a holding pattern after the unexpected first act in Ukraine.  Russia still has much they want, oil, raw materials, wheat (anyone else heard the wheat harvest in China was very bad this year?), plus the joy of seeing the West discomfited.  

But now the costs are climbing and the story line no longer fits their favorite narrative of a fractured West in decline as the East/China inevitably rises (their viewpoint).

So we get a holding pattern that remains outwardly favoring Russia (China newspapers still blame NATO and downplay unfavorable outcomes/war crimes) but hasn’t committed itself. They are waiting for more information that will come as events unfold.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-04-2022

With Russian State TV saying things like this, ain’t no one in Ukraine gonna be voting for capitulation. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1521802979619311618

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 05-04-2022

(05-04-2022, 09:42 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  With Russian State TV saying things like this, ain’t no one in Ukraine gonna be voting for capitulation. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1521802979619311618

Scary stuff. I wonder what the general public in Russia thinks of those comments.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-04-2022

Paraphrasing the immortal words of Animal House, “he (the Russian President) can’t do that to our citizens; only we can do that to our citizens”.

I think it is very different what a population will endure under internal repression than what it will fight against if the subjugation is external.  Moreover, yes, the Ukrainians elected Yanukovic… but they also overthrew him.  There have always been divisions between east and west Ukraine, between the Russian and Ukrainian speakers, between the cosmopolitans living in the cities and those living in towns and rural communities.  But you know what has United most of them? Being invaded by their neighbor.  Sure, there will always be some people who stand to gain by aligning with Russia, but I think a vast majority of the population supports resisting the invasion and is not ready to sign away their country just to stop the fighting.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-04-2022

(05-04-2022, 10:27 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:  Scary stuff. I wonder what the general public in Russia thinks of those comments.

Probably they think about it as little as possible, because they view it as completely outside of their control. They just don't want to have those consequences vested upon themselves. It is just like a natural disaster. You are sad it happens, but you also hope it doesn't happen to you. Completely different way of looking at the world. Obviously there are exceptions, but I think my comment is representative of most Russians. Many that think differently have left Russia, both recently and over time.

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