Outside Topic NBA Discussion - Printable Version
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RE: NBA Discussion - lex24 - 05-22-2023
(05-22-2023, 07:58 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(05-21-2023, 10:59 AM)Sam Leopold Wrote: The Celtics are favored by -4 to win tonight's game IN Miami and will probably be given a similar line for Game 4 in a couple of days. Also, the Heat are only a modest favorite at -170 to advance to the Finals in spite of winning both of the first two games in Boston.
I have never bet real money on sports and don't currently have the infrastructure in place to do so, but if I did, these Heat lines would stick out to me as an outstanding value. The Heat certainly appear to be the superior team psychologically.
If the Celtics were to get out of this hole and grace the Finals, the most likely route (among various unlikely ones) appears to be to win Games 3, 5, 6 and 7, although evening the series in South Beach is not totally inconceivable. Home court advantage in the playoffs doesn't seem to have much meaning to the Celtics this year.
Last year ESPN’s analytics program gave Celtics an 86% chance to beats Dubs before the Finals tipped off.
Apparently, even down in series 3-0, and even with teams being 0-149 all time in series after that point, ESPN’s analytics program is still picking Celtics to win the series. I’d say the algorithm isn’t factoring in some very important data, like probably some manifestation of the eyeball test.
What an absolute face plant by Boston in Game 3. Just unbelievable how dominated they were in most important game of their season.
Or perhaps they aren’t factoring in that Spoelstra is worth several points a game. Were he coaching the Knicks or Lakers he’d be a household name and they’d be writing songs about him. He’d be on a zillion commercials. As it is, he’s just the best HC in the NBA.
If the Heat win this series, Spoelstra will have beaten the top seed in 5 and the 2 seed in ___. Budenholzer got fired. Mazulla probably will be as well.
Quite a run if he can finish it. (Heck, it’s already an amazing run). If he then wins the Title. Well, that would be the all-time feat. Especially if it’s Denver. Beating two No 1’s. Not going to bet against him at this point.
RE: NBA Discussion - CompSci87 - 05-22-2023
(05-21-2023, 03:07 PM)Mick Wrote:(05-21-2023, 10:45 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Did any of you read the story on Kevon Looney today in the Mercury? It was all about how he could become a bigger offensive threat with a legit jumper, including from 3. Said he was referred to as "Baby Durant" in High School because he was so offensively talented, able to do everything.
Would be a game-changer if he did. Says he very well could work on adding shooting to his game this Summer if the Warriors ask him to do so.
I did read it, very interesting. Two points: (1) it notes his hip labrum surgery on both hips (separate years). (2) He's bulked up to survive as a 5/center, and has most recently made very strong gains in his rebounding ability. The amount of work he'd need to do to get back to Baby Durant status might not be workable after his surgeries and physical transformation.
Here's a nice YouTube video of Looney in his high school days. Fun to watch.
https://youtu.be/aCBD_c8eLjM
RE: NBA Discussion - OutsiderFan - 05-24-2023
The Celtics still have home court advantage while down 3-1, because they get 2/3 at home if three more games are needed. Of course, they have a better road record in the playoffs of late.
It was quite amusing seeing every pundit say the Celtics had no chance to avoid sweep yesterday as I flew across the country on JetBlue watching sports talk shows. It made me think any time everyone is this confident, the underdog seems to win. Sure enough, the Celtics blew out the Heat in the second half of Game 4 to avoid sweep.
Mike Greenberg on ESPN Radio's reaction? The Celtics are going to come back to win the series! Everyone says the Celtics have more talent, but the Heat are a better team. I've arrived at a point I can admit I have no clue. It's just awesome that we get Game 5 in Boston. Would be even more awesome if we get a Game 6 and a Game 7. The uncertainty and story lines are fascinating.
The media sure is gonna have to unring the "Heat Culture" bell and replace it with "Celtic Pride" if the C's come back and win.
RE: NBA Discussion - lex24 - 05-26-2023
Pulling for Heat. Boston fans are already insufferable. If they come back and win, we will never hear the end of it.
RE: NBA Discussion - OutsiderFan - 05-26-2023
(05-26-2023, 07:03 AM)lex24 Wrote: Pulling for Heat. Boston fans are already insufferable. If they come back and win, we will never hear the end of it.
I can see your point and it is legit. I'd still rather see the more compelling Finals matchup. That, to me, is Boston-Denver.
It's amusing to see all the "Heat are the better team" pundits saying the C's only won cuz they started hitting threes. What about Miami shooting 41% from 3 for the series when they shot 34% for the season? Even after Game 5 Boston is shooting 35% from 3 for the series. They shot 37% during season.
Game 6 will be must watch for any true sports fan.
RE: NBA Discussion - lex24 - 05-27-2023
(05-26-2023, 12:27 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(05-26-2023, 07:03 AM)lex24 Wrote: Pulling for Heat. Boston fans are already insufferable. If they come back and win, we will never hear the end of it.
I can see your point and it is legit. I'd still rather see the more compelling Finals matchup. That, to me, is Boston-Denver.
It's amusing to see all the "Heat are the better team" pundits saying the C's only won cuz they started hitting threes. What about Miami shooting 41% from 3 for the series when they shot 34% for the season? Even after Game 5 Boston is shooting 35% from 3 for the series. They shot 37% during season.
Game 6 will be must watch for any true sports fan.
I don’t listen to “pundits”.
RE: NBA Discussion - OutsiderFan - 05-28-2023
Game 6 sure lived up to the hype! Man, glad I wasn’t emotionally invested with the Heat or Celtics…
Boston shot its season worst 3pt % and still hung on to avoid elimination. That is more impressive than a blowout win, IMO. Now Game 7.
It’s REALLY hard to beat any team 4 in a row. Though the C’s are at home, I don’t think there is such a thing as home court advantage in the Game 7. I’m just as confident the Heat can win as I am the Celtics. Think we’ll see a very low scoring rock fight of a game. I was kind of shocked Miami allowed 34 points in first quarter of Game 6, but they did only allow 70 the rest of the game. I expect similar results Monday night.
Will Jason Tatum put together 4 solid quarters or will Jimmy Butler? Who do you trust more to deliver?
RE: NBA Discussion - needle - 05-28-2023
Man, truly a weird ending, with only D. White realizing in the moment that the Celtics had pulled off an all-timer. Can’t rule out Miami when they are forcing turnovers, but I think the Celtics ride this wave to the Finals.
RE: NBA Discussion - lex24 - 05-28-2023
(05-28-2023, 08:44 AM)needle Wrote: Man, truly a weird ending, with only D. White realizing in the moment that the Celtics had pulled off an all-timer. Can’t rule out Miami when they are forcing turnovers, but I think the Celtics ride this wave to the Finals.
Celtics tried hard to give that game away. To say they got lucky is an understatement. Smart for White to make the beeline from inbounder to the rim. But that was literally the only place that ball could’ve bounced off and had a chance for a put back in time. Unbelievable.
While its hard to beat a team four straight times, I think the Celtics have a brobdingnagian advantage coming in. That was a devastating loss for Miami. Hell they thought they won the game. I remember when the Giants blew game six to the Angels in 2002. I knew they had no shot in game seven. And they didn’t. I expect the same in Boston. So, get ready for the onslaught of the “greatest comeback ever” and all the other BS we will hear from the insufferable Boston fans
RE: NBA Discussion - OutsiderFan - 05-28-2023
Another way to look at it:
The Celtics might be sapped from the emotional high of winning Game 6 in the fashion they did.
The Celtics tend to melt in tight situations. They did again in Game 6, but pulled one out of the fire.
Beating a team 4 straight is really difficult.
The Celtics are not very good at home in the playoffs.
The Heat are good on the road in the playoffs.
There are many arguments for why either team will win. Regardless of who does, I'm not seeing either stopping the Nuggets from winning their first Larry trophy.
The only predictions I feel confident about making: Take the UNDER on the 203 total and Miami +7.5.
RE: NBA Discussion - lex24 - 05-29-2023
(05-28-2023, 02:23 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Another way to look at it:
The Celtics might be sapped from the emotional high of winning Game 6 in the fashion they did.
The Celtics tend to melt in tight situations. They did again in Game 6, but pulled one out of the fire.
Beating a team 4 straight is really difficult.
The Celtics are not very good at home in the playoffs.
The Heat are good on the road in the playoffs.
There are many arguments for why either team will win. Regardless of who does, I'm not seeing either stopping the Nuggets from winning their first Larry trophy.
The only predictions I feel confident about making: Take the UNDER on the 203 total and Miami +7.5.
Celtics by 15.
RE: NBA Discussion - OutsiderFan - 05-29-2023
Man, what a buzzkill of a Game 7.
The Celtics were never closer than 7 at any time in second half. What if the Heat shot their season 3pt average instead of 50%? Celtics defense vanished this year.
The emergence of Caleb Martin is the story of the ECF IMO.
Denver should be a big favorite in Finals, but man, am I impressed with the Heat as a team.
RE: NBA Discussion - TrumpCard - 05-29-2023
Such different teams in the finals. Denver with a 2-time MVP and 3 potential all-stars, but not much depth beyond the top 6 players. And limited experience deep in the playoffs. The Heat have a terrific coach in his 6th finals, a deep bench, and more experience going deep in the playoffs, but they don’t seem to have the horses to match up with Denver’s starting 5.
RE: NBA Discussion - OutsiderFan - 05-30-2023
What surprises me about Heat is that even guys like Robinson and Strus and Vincent play credible defense. The other thing is they don’t seem to have any more size than the Warriors typically have. They got killed on the offensive boards by Cs in first half but started boxing out to get more rebounds off misses and that was really the key. Just couldn’t believe how Jaylen Brown couldn’t take advantage of and dominant against Strus and Robinson.
Denver has more high end talent, but after Bruce Brown they don’t have much off the bench for sure. Will Tyler Herro return and be a difference maker? Or are the Heat kinda better without him?
RE: NBA Discussion - lex24 - 05-30-2023
Meyers presser today. Scuttlebutt is that he’s leaving. Big loss. His greatest moment may have been when he refused to trade Klay for Kevin Love. Jerry West played a key role in that.
RE: NBA Discussion - TrumpCard - 05-30-2023
What surprises me most is the difference Kevin Love made. He was basically out of the Cavs rotation. It looked like his career was winding down. Now he’s a starter for a team in the Finals. He’s not putting up big stats, but he’s okay on defense, and teams have to respect his outside shot.
RE: NBA Discussion - OutsiderFan - 05-30-2023
I've seen nothing hinting anyone knows what Myers is doing. Tim Kawakami and Anthony Slater haven't said anything to suggest they know. Marc Stein of Bleacher Report is "guessing" Myers walks away from Warriors. He knows nothing.
RE: NBA Discussion - needle - 05-30-2023
I really believe that with the emergence of Martin and their strong bench, the Heat actually do have the roster of a champion.
Problem is, Denver is just a machine right now. We knew going in to the ECF that neither Tatum nor Brown were great assist-to-turnover guys, and hounding them on defense worked more often than not.
Joker and Murray—heck, even KCP—are much, much smarter with the basketball. Miami is not going to force turnovers like they did against Boston.
I think Denver is the better team.
RE: NBA Discussion - OutsiderFan - 05-30-2023
Myers is gone after all:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/37760752/warriors-president-general-manager-bob-myers-steps-down
RE: NBA Discussion - lex24 - 05-30-2023
(05-30-2023, 09:31 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Myers is gone after all:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/37760752/warriors-president-general-manager-bob-myers-steps-down
As expected.
(05-30-2023, 08:02 AM)TrumpCard Wrote: What surprises me most is the difference Kevin Love made. He was basically out of the Cavs rotation. It looked like his career was winding down. Now he’s a starter for a team in the Finals. He’s not putting up big stats, but he’s okay on defense, and teams have to respect his outside shot.
He didn’t play in Games 6 and 7.