Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation

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RE: Palo Alto Flooding - pefloresjr - 01-11-2023

(01-11-2023, 08:02 PM)CompSci87 Wrote:
(01-11-2023, 07:17 PM)martyup Wrote:
(01-11-2023, 02:54 PM)M T Wrote:

I graduated from Stanford in '83. Now I know why my memory is that it was alway raining. It was!
Similar experience for me. I started grad school at Stanford in 1981, moving here from Milwaukee, so my first impression of the NorCal rainy season was that it meant rain almost every day.

'82-'83 was my freshman year. I showed up entirely unprepared for so much wet weather and had no money to buy proper gear. The combination of struggling to adjust to the academic rigor, missing my girlfriend, and the constant rain made for a rough year and I came close to calling it quits a few times. It was so bad that my roommate, the son of a Stanford professor, gave me one of his old North Face jackets when he could no longer stand seeing me come in soaking wet. Despite almost being crushed by a falling oak tree next to Tresidder during one of the storms, somehow I made it through. I hate the drought, but I don't want to see another year with that much rain, even though I can now afford my own North Face jacket.

Cheers,
Pete F.

RE: Palo Alto Flooding - M T - 01-12-2023

(01-11-2023, 09:49 PM)pefloresjr Wrote:
(01-11-2023, 08:02 PM)CompSci87 Wrote:
(01-11-2023, 07:17 PM)martyup Wrote: I graduated from Stanford in '83. Now I know why my memory is that it was alway raining. It was!
Similar experience for me. I started grad school at Stanford in 1981, moving here from Milwaukee, so my first impression of the NorCal rainy season was that it meant rain almost every day.

'82-'83 was my freshman year. I showed up entirely unprepared for so much wet weather and had no money to buy proper gear. The combination of struggling to adjust to the academic rigor, missing my girlfriend, and the constant rain made for a rough year and I came close to calling it quits a few times. It was so bad that my roommate, the son of a Stanford professor, gave me one of his old North Face jackets when he could no longer stand seeing me come in soaking wet. Despite almost being crushed by a falling oak tree next to Tresidder during one of the storms, somehow I made it through. I hate the drought, but I don't want to see another year with that much rain, even though I can now afford my own North Face jacket.

Cheers,
Pete F.

I also remember 1982-1983. I had bought our house in the area 1 year before that winter hit. in the storms, I had to repair my fence when it blew down. The next morning I couldn't open my hand - scary, and long before the term "carpal tunnel" was well known. But, I moved here from Texas, so I didn't realize what a big deal that winter was for this area. The 30" of rain at SJ was 60% of what I grew up with.

RE: Palo Alto Flood Warning until 2:45 - 81alum - 01-12-2023

(01-11-2023, 06:46 PM)TonyLima Wrote: Re the highlighted statement above, don’t bet on that. If the rest of the season is dry and sunny, sublimation will occur. That means no runoff.

The studies I have been looking over estimate sublimation at around 15% of snowpack, at most. The southern Sierra is already at 123% of April 1 normal, so I think we are on track for at least a normal year in much of the Sierra. However, I'd like to see the whole Sierra get well above normal before rejoicing. And we really need to do a lot better than normal to make a dent in the drought. We need more snow in February and March.

A bigger worry, perhaps, is that a too-early melt could occur, as with a rain-on-snow event, which would release the water in the snowpack too early before it could be stored or used. Many reservoirs can't be filled early since they need to reserve space to prevent potential flooding, so ideally we need the snowpack to stay cold and in place until flood danger is over and irrigation season needs it.

Warmer winter and spring storms could produce this kind of disaster, and they are probably more likely in this era of changed climate. It was a warm rain event that produced the flooding of 96-97, when rain fell up to 10,000 feet in the Sierra on New Year's Day.

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 01-12-2023

(01-11-2023, 06:06 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(01-11-2023, 05:38 PM)TonyLima Wrote: Just in time. My look at the Bay Area rainfall situation . Here's a preview.

Interesting info, thanks for sharing. Curious at how it is collected for each location. Some incongruities seem to pop up, like Martinez is way above normal, while Benicia is at normal. Similarly Danville is slightly up, yet Walnut Creek and Dublin are both way up. . . .I'd imagine taken as a whole, the data averages out and shows that overall, we've had a ton of rain.

Large disparity between Gilroy and Hollister, two towns that are virtually adjacent.

Looks like Carmel and Pebble Beach might get flooded out.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/floods-threaten-to-turn-coastal-california-towns-into-an-island/ar-AA16foVT

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - cardcrimson - 01-12-2023

(01-12-2023, 08:51 AM)Mick Wrote:
(01-11-2023, 06:06 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(01-11-2023, 05:38 PM)TonyLima Wrote: Just in time. My look at the Bay Area rainfall situation . Here's a preview.

Interesting info, thanks for sharing. Curious at how it is collected for each location. Some incongruities seem to pop up, like Martinez is way above normal, while Benicia is at normal. Similarly Danville is slightly up, yet Walnut Creek and Dublin are both way up. . . .I'd imagine taken as a whole, the data averages out and shows that overall, we've had a ton of rain.

Large disparity between Gilroy and Hollister, two towns that are virtually adjacent.

Looks like Carmel and Pebble Beach might get flooded out.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/floods-threaten-to-turn-coastal-california-towns-into-an-island/ar-AA16foVT

The morning news showed images of Hollister completely flooded. . . .

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - M T - 01-12-2023

(01-12-2023, 08:51 AM)Mick Wrote:
(01-11-2023, 06:06 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(01-11-2023, 05:38 PM)TonyLima Wrote: Just in time. My look at the Bay Area rainfall situation . Here's a preview.
(Image removed)

Interesting info, thanks for sharing. Curious at how it is collected for each location. Some incongruities seem to pop up, like Martinez is way above normal, while Benicia is at normal. Similarly Danville is slightly up, yet Walnut Creek and Dublin are both way up. . . .I'd imagine taken as a whole, the data averages out and shows that overall, we've had a ton of rain.
Large disparity between Gilroy and Hollister, two towns that are virtually adjacent.

Gilroy & Hollister are 15 miles apart.
I was shocked when I saw how little rain has been recorded at San Jose (7.7" since October 1)

I found a map-based version from NOAA showing this data. These show Water Year rain (October 1 to January 11).

The first shows the actual values (inches) at stations with the color background giving the general area values.
The second shows percent of normal.
California, showing percent of normal.
California snow pack, percent of April 1 normal

You can see San Jose Airport stand out at 7.68"(light blue) and 147% (sky blue).
There are some lower percentages near Santa Rosa. Napa stands out.

[Image: SFBay-Rain-Percent-Oct1-Jan11.jpg]

[Image: California-Rain-Percent-Oct1-Jan11.jpg]

[Image: Calif-Snow-Percent-April1as-Of-Jan12.jpg]

(Someone wondered how posts include images. AFAICT, the CardBoard does not support attachments. You can post links to images stored elsewhere. If you click on one of the thumbnails above, you will see a link to the service where I upload (for free) images for use here.)

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 01-12-2023

(01-12-2023, 11:00 AM)M T Wrote:
(01-12-2023, 08:51 AM)Mick Wrote: Large disparity between Gilroy and Hollister, two towns that are virtually adjacent.
Gilroy & Hollister are 15 miles apart.

Yes, the middle of Gilroy and the middle of Hollister are 15 miles apart, in the same way that the middle of San Jose and the middle of Saratoga are 13 miles apart per Google Maps, in spite of the fact that they share a common four-mile border.

Or to put it another way: which town(s) are in between Saratoga and San Jose? Answer: None. And which town(s) are in between Gilroy and Hollister?

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Leftcoast - 01-12-2023

I remember the Stanford 82-83 El Niño winter - We'd drawn into the opening year of the Governor's Corner Suites which weren't ready for the Fall quarter so we were placed into "the trailers" - this turned out to be a VERY wet 3 months. It was a great time for my group of friends despite the extreme rain. We elected to cook for ourselves and regularly had multiple friends hanging out, playing early video games, and eating with us. We were also regularly invaded by ants but I hear that was normal for the trailers and not necessarily related to the wet conditions.

The trailers were arranged in 3 units pods and one of the nearby pods housed another set of friends. Their pod included a large oak tree that blew over into two of the trailers during dead week if I remember correctly. The constant soaking rain compromised the rooting forcing them to be rehoused. They were intense pre-meds/econ types and not pleased.

I just remember weeks of continuous rain and blustery winds countered by a housing community that was warm, friendly, and a great respite from the cold outdoors.

I know others HATED the trailers but I carry kind thoughts and good memories of our short time there and the winter of 82/83.

/Lefty

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - cardcrimson - 01-12-2023

(01-12-2023, 03:40 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: I remember the Stanford 82-83 El Niño winter - We'd drawn into the opening year of the Governor's Corner Suites which weren't ready for the Fall quarter so we were placed into "the trailers" - this turned out to be a VERY wet 3 months. It was a great time for my group of friends despite the extreme rain. We elected to cook for ourselves and regularly had multiple friends hanging out, playing early video games, and eating with us. We were also regularly invaded by ants but I hear that was normal for the trailers and not necessarily related to the wet conditions.

The trailers were arranged in 3 units pods and one of the nearby pods housed another set of friends. Their pod included a large oak tree that blew over into two of the trailers during dead week if I remember correctly. The constant soaking rain compromised the rooting forcing them to be rehoused. They were intense pre-meds/econ types and not pleased.

I just remember weeks of continuous rain and blustery winds countered by a housing community that was warm, friendly, and a great respite from the cold outdoors.

I know others HATED the trailers but I carry kind thoughts and good memories of our short time there and the winter of 82/83.

/Lefty

When I lived in Arroyo, the last year it was all freshman, we had a funnelator that could reach the second row of trailers in Manzanita. The sound of an orange hitting the side of a trailer from that distance was deafening. . . .

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - TonyLima - 01-12-2023

(01-12-2023, 10:45 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(01-12-2023, 08:51 AM)Mick Wrote:
(01-11-2023, 06:06 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(01-11-2023, 05:38 PM)TonyLima Wrote: Just in time. My look at the Bay Area rainfall situation . Here's a preview.

Interesting info, thanks for sharing. Curious at how it is collected for each location. Some incongruities seem to pop up, like Martinez is way above normal, while Benicia is at normal. Similarly Danville is slightly up, yet Walnut Creek and Dublin are both way up. . . .I'd imagine taken as a whole, the data averages out and shows that overall, we've had a ton of rain.

Large disparity between Gilroy and Hollister, two towns that are virtually adjacent.

Looks like Carmel and Pebble Beach might get flooded out.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/floods-threaten-to-turn-coastal-california-towns-into-an-island/ar-AA16foVT

The morning news showed images of Hollister completely flooded. . . .

Reminder that these numbers are ratios. Value depends on the numerator and the denominator. If you wantvthe raw totals, download the Excel workbook linked in my article.

(01-12-2023, 06:18 AM)81alum Wrote:
(01-11-2023, 06:46 PM)TonyLima Wrote: Re the highlighted statement above, don’t bet on that. If the rest of the season is dry and sunny, sublimation will occur. That means no runoff.
The studies I have been looking over estimate sublimation at around 15% of snowpack, at most. The southern Sierra is already at 123% of April 1 normal, so I think we are on track for at least a normal year in much of the Sierra. However, I'd like to see the whole Sierra get well above normal before rejoicing. And we really need to do a lot better than normal to make a dent in the drought. We need more snow in February and March.

A bigger worry, perhaps, is that a too-early melt could occur, as with a rain-on-snow event, which would release the water in the snowpack too early before it could be stored or used. Many reservoirs can't be filled early since they need to reserve space to prevent potential flooding, so ideally we need the snowpack to stay cold and in place until flood danger is over and irrigation season needs it.

Warmer winter and spring storms could produce this kind of disaster, and they are probably more likely in this era of changed climate. It was a warm rain event that produced the flooding of 96-97, when rain fell up to 10,000 feet in the Sierra on New Year's Day.

Good points. But 15% ain’t chicken feed.

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - CompSci87 - 01-12-2023

Another early 80s rain story. The rain forced me to buy my first car. Stanford had very little grad student housing in 1981, and weirdly their policy back then was to give precedence to students who were in campus housing the prior year, not to first years. So I was living in a room in a house in Menlo Park and biking to campus on my trusty old 3-speed, despite the rain.

The last straw that ended that approach was one night when I ran head-on into one of the trees that is in the middle of the bike lane on Bay Road. I had rain on my glasses and car headlights in my eyes and didn't see the tree. I bent my front fork to where the bike wasn't ridable until I had it repaired.

I bought a VW Bug soon after.

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - TonyLima - 01-12-2023

(01-12-2023, 05:20 PM)CompSci87 Wrote: Another early 80s rain story. The rain forced me to buy my first car. Stanford had very little grad student housing in 1981, and weirdly their policy back then was to give precedence to students who were in campus housing the prior year, not to first years. So I was living in a room in a house in Menlo Park and biking to campus on my trusty old 3-speed, despite the rain.

The last straw that ended that approach was one night when I ran head-on into one of the trees that is in the middle of the bike lane on Bay Road. I had rain on my glasses and car headlights in my eyes and didn't see the tree. I bent my front fork to where the bike wasn't ridable until I had it repaired.

I bought VW Bug soon after.

That tree got a 15% commission on your auto purchase.

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - M T - 01-12-2023

I was looking at the NOAA rain numbers and saw an astonishing number.
A rain gauge on Mining Ridge near the Big Sur coast shows 39” of rain in the first 12 days of January and nearly 74” since October 1.

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - qwerty49 - 01-12-2023

(01-12-2023, 04:07 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(01-12-2023, 03:40 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: I remember the Stanford 82-83 El Niño winter - We'd drawn into the opening year of the Governor's Corner Suites which weren't ready for the Fall quarter so we were placed into "the trailers" - this turned out to be a VERY wet 3 months. It was a great time for my group of friends despite the extreme rain. We elected to cook for ourselves and regularly had multiple friends hanging out, playing early video games, and eating with us. We were also regularly invaded by ants but I hear that was normal for the trailers and not necessarily related to the wet conditions.

The trailers were arranged in 3 units pods and one of the nearby pods housed another set of friends. Their pod included a large oak tree that blew over into two of the trailers during dead week if I remember correctly. The constant soaking rain compromised the rooting forcing them to be rehoused. They were intense pre-meds/econ types and not pleased.

I just remember weeks of continuous rain and blustery winds countered by a housing community that was warm, friendly, and a great respite from the cold outdoors.

I know others HATED the trailers but I carry kind thoughts and good memories of our short time there and the winter of 82/83.

/Lefty

When I lived in Arroyo, the last year it was all freshman, we had a funnelator that could reach the second row of trailers in Manzanita. The sound of an orange hitting the side of a trailer from that distance was deafening. . . .

My freshman year the guys down the hall (also Arroyo, BTW) made one out of surgical tubing and a doggie dish, brought it into the Old Lady, and managed to launch a few water balloons from the sunny side into the marching Kal band at halftime.

The year after I graduated, one of my friends dropped out and I took his place (illegally) in the trailers. I think that was the first year the trailers existed. We had four waterbeds, and the one in the living room left a brobdingnagian dent in the floor when we left. One of my roommates built a still on the back porch and I came home one day to find the Stanford Fire Dept putting out a small blaze after it exploded. If there ever was a student ghetto, it was the trailers. They were originally billed as "temporary housing" for one year and I was surprised to see they were still being used almost a decade later.

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - 82lsju - 01-13-2023

(01-12-2023, 11:05 PM)qwerty49 Wrote:
(01-12-2023, 04:07 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(01-12-2023, 03:40 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: I remember the Stanford 82-83 El Niño winter - We'd drawn into the opening year of the Governor's Corner Suites which weren't ready for the Fall quarter so we were placed into "the trailers" - this turned out to be a VERY wet 3 months. It was a great time for my group of friends despite the extreme rain. We elected to cook for ourselves and regularly had multiple friends hanging out, playing early video games, and eating with us. We were also regularly invaded by ants but I hear that was normal for the trailers and not necessarily related to the wet conditions.

The trailers were arranged in 3 units pods and one of the nearby pods housed another set of friends. Their pod included a large oak tree that blew over into two of the trailers during dead week if I remember correctly. The constant soaking rain compromised the rooting forcing them to be rehoused. They were intense pre-meds/econ types and not pleased.

I just remember weeks of continuous rain and blustery winds countered by a housing community that was warm, friendly, and a great respite from the cold outdoors.

I know others HATED the trailers but I carry kind thoughts and good memories of our short time there and the winter of 82/83.

/Lefty

When I lived in Arroyo, the last year it was all freshman, we had a funnelator that could reach the second row of trailers in Manzanita. The sound of an orange hitting the side of a trailer from that distance was deafening. . . .

My freshman year the guys down the hall (also Arroyo, BTW) made one out of surgical tubing and a doggie dish, brought it into the Old Lady, and managed to launch a few water balloons from the sunny side into the marching Kal band at halftime.

The year after I graduated, one of my friends dropped out and I took his place (illegally) in the trailers. I think that was the first year the trailers existed. We had four waterbeds, and the one in the living room left a of immense proportions dent in the floor when we left. One of my roommates built a still on the back porch and I came home one day to find the Stanford Fire Dept putting out a small blaze after it exploded. If there ever was a student ghetto, it was the trailers. They were originally billed as "temporary housing" for one year and I was surprised to see they were still being used almost a decade later.

Quote:Meanwhile, trailers in Manzanita Park, which had been housing undergraduates since 1969, were opened up to graduate student housing as 554 undergraduates moved to new Governor’s Corner suites in Winter 1983.

Manzanita Park trailers, although intended as temporary housing, remained in place for 22 years, due to the fact that, by 1986, the University was profiting from the trailers more so than it would be from permanent residences.

https://stanforddaily.com/2018/05/16/a-history-of-housing-shortages-how-the-university-accommodates-consistent-growth/

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - cardcrimson - 01-13-2023

(01-12-2023, 11:05 PM)qwerty49 Wrote:
(01-12-2023, 04:07 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(01-12-2023, 03:40 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: I remember the Stanford 82-83 El Niño winter - We'd drawn into the opening year of the Governor's Corner Suites which weren't ready for the Fall quarter so we were placed into "the trailers" - this turned out to be a VERY wet 3 months. It was a great time for my group of friends despite the extreme rain. We elected to cook for ourselves and regularly had multiple friends hanging out, playing early video games, and eating with us. We were also regularly invaded by ants but I hear that was normal for the trailers and not necessarily related to the wet conditions.

The trailers were arranged in 3 units pods and one of the nearby pods housed another set of friends. Their pod included a large oak tree that blew over into two of the trailers during dead week if I remember correctly. The constant soaking rain compromised the rooting forcing them to be rehoused. They were intense pre-meds/econ types and not pleased.

I just remember weeks of continuous rain and blustery winds countered by a housing community that was warm, friendly, and a great respite from the cold outdoors.

I know others HATED the trailers but I carry kind thoughts and good memories of our short time there and the winter of 82/83.

/Lefty

When I lived in Arroyo, the last year it was all freshman, we had a funnelator that could reach the second row of trailers in Manzanita. The sound of an orange hitting the side of a trailer from that distance was deafening. . . .

My freshman year the guys down the hall (also Arroyo, BTW) made one out of surgical tubing and a doggie dish, brought it into the Old Lady, and managed to launch a few water balloons from the sunny side into the marching Kal band at halftime.

The year after I graduated, one of my friends dropped out and I took his place (illegally) in the trailers. I think that was the first year the trailers existed. We had four waterbeds, and the one in the living room left a of immense proportions dent in the floor when we left. One of my roommates built a still on the back porch and I came home one day to find the Stanford Fire Dept putting out a small blaze after it exploded. If there ever was a student ghetto, it was the trailers. They were originally billed as "temporary housing" for one year and I was surprised to see they were still being used almost a decade later.

I've a feeling since Stanford hates fun, funnelators, stills, and water beds are probably banned. . . .

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Spiny_Norman - 01-13-2023

(01-12-2023, 03:40 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: I remember the Stanford 82-83 El Niño winter - We'd drawn into the opening year of the Governor's Corner Suites which weren't ready for the Fall quarter so we were placed into "the trailers" - this turned out to be a VERY wet 3 months. It was a great time for my group of friends despite the extreme rain. We elected to cook for ourselves and regularly had multiple friends hanging out, playing early video games, and eating with us. We were also regularly invaded by ants but I hear that was normal for the trailers and not necessarily related to the wet conditions.

The trailers were arranged in 3 units pods and one of the nearby pods housed another set of friends. Their pod included a large oak tree that blew over into two of the trailers during dead week if I remember correctly. The constant soaking rain compromised the rooting forcing them to be rehoused. They were intense pre-meds/econ types and not pleased.

I just remember weeks of continuous rain and blustery winds countered by a housing community that was warm, friendly, and a great respite from the cold outdoors.

I know others HATED the trailers but I carry kind thoughts and good memories of our short time there and the winter of 82/83.

/Lefty

I also lived in the trailers that winter and knew the ants well. At one point, they were coming into my room through the electrical outlet. I also remember the wind ripping a panel off of another trailer in our cluster of 4. But that trailer housed 4 members of the women's swimming team so they were probably going to be fine even if the rest of us had needed an ark.

And there was also the story of the guy who parked his car in the Tresidder lot to pick up a souvenir at the Bookstore. When he returned a few minutes later, a tree had crushed his car.

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - winflop - 01-16-2023

re funnelators. Lived in Whitman winter/spring of junior year and all of senior year. We would go up on the roof which had a nice high solid wood fence around it and launch water baloons at cars that would stop at the corner of Campus Dr and Bowdoin. It wasn't just an issue of accuracy but also of timing because you wanted the baloon to hit as they were stopped (or slowed if they were making a Hollywood stop). Launch, wait for impact, and if it hit, duck below the top of the fence so as to not be spotted. Double the fun when accompanied by cocktails.

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - M T - 01-16-2023

Regarding reservoir numbers, jacket3ree wrote "With Anderson drained as we do the seismic retrofit, Santa Clara County has lost most of its local supply. Really need San Luis to fill up and support import."

San Luis isn't filling as quickly as I had hoped. For % of historical levels at the date, San Luis was at these levels on these dates
9/15/22 66%
11/15/22 52%
1/15/23 64% (Last year at this date, it was 54%)

So San Luis hasn't yet made up for 4 months of usage, and we're still worse off than in September. Hard to believe, but those are the numbers.
(Yes, the absolute numbers are up, but we've lost ground to the goal.)
Is this because Santa Clara County can't use Anderson and so San Luis was being drained faster than normal?
Or is that 66% somewhat misleading?

The Anderson Dam Seismic Retrofit is scheduled to be completed in 2032. I believe Anderson Dam could hold roughly 50,000 acre-feet of water.

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - WindyCityCard - 01-16-2023

Re: trailers. I too lived there, during the last year of their existence (1994-5). By then I was a grad student and they were graduate student housing. I didn't have much money and at $300/month the price was right. On the other hand, having two random male grad student roommates was not a good thing.

Re: Lake Lag. I decided to go by on my run today. It's pretty full, within a few feet of the the path near EBF & KA (though obviously well below the north & west rims). There was a substantial flotilla of rafts tied up together out in the middle near the southeast corner.

Also, +1 to BC's recommendation of Bryan Allegretto (Tahoe Daily Snow) for ski & road forecasts.