Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 05-16-2022

(05-16-2022, 07:08 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(05-15-2022, 10:04 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  The difference is that in World War II, Russia was mobilized for total war, plus the Germans were fighting on multiple fronts, and their industrial base was being systematically dismantled. Russia is still pretending that this is a “special military operation”.

Ukraine is fighting for its survival and getting resupplied in real time.  A battle of attrition in 1943 favored the Russians.  Nearly 80 years later, it doesn’t.

BC

True. On top of that Ukraine has modern artillery that is much more accurate, somewhat longer range, and much more destructive. Back then even hitting a bridge would require lots more shelling. The longer range means that clearing the opposite bank is much harder as you have to sanitize much further from the bridgehead before you can even put in the bridge. The Russians couldn't/didn't even attempt to do that. Even more advantage to the guys on the Western bank of the river.

However, what I got from the article was that even 80 years ago Russia ran into heavy opposition and failed to cross the river on several attempts. They kept banging away, just like they did this time. They lost a division commander, which back then was a big deal, and the better part of their force. Even when they finally got a bridge across the river it was four months before the Russians were able to launch an effective offensive out of the bridgehead, during which time they also suffered massive losses. They should have known that best case the river crossing wasn't going to be easy and would be very costly. It appears the Russians did anticipate that more than one attempt would be needed, but the force they assembled just wasn't up to it. They should have known.

Another article worth reading
 https://mwi.usma.edu/putins-bad-math-the-root-of-russian-miscalculation-in-ukraine/
Also Max Boot's recent article in the Washington Post is worth some time.  I do find the reported Russian tank losses to be difficult to get my head around.  600 tanks is a rather large number to my way of thinking.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/09/putin-victory-day-russia-ukraine-quagmire/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-16-2022

Good point, though it looks like Russia has tried to establish multiple bridges.  Accounts vary on how many (I’ve seen three, I’ve seen nine).

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1507778623935295490?s=21&t=7XrXAJidVcrq9o4VJjoBOA[/tweet]

This is stunning.  Russia has lost 1/3 of the troops it sent to Ukraine, per the British.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/15/world/russia-ukraine-war-news?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20220516&instance_id=61472&nl=the-morning&regi_id=112348342&segment_id=92373&smid=url-copy&te=1&user_id=ceb8dc75e6018f57e5d7fc74f24220a2#russia-may-have-lost-a-third-of-the-troops-it-sent-to-ukraine-a-british-report-says

This is also stunning:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1526164608238624769?s=21&t=7XrXAJidVcrq9o4VJjoBOA[/tweet]

If any of this is accurate, I don’t see how Russia can achieve pretty much anything else.  We are pretty close to a military rout.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 05-16-2022

GK3 -- Intel's chip plant projects don't actually reshore very much imo.  The demand for semiconductors is high enough that even increasing domestic capacity is unlikely to decrease dependence overseas (plus, Intel doesn't outsource much of its production overseas, though I hear rumblings that this could change at 3nm).  Additionally, I need to see Intel's foundry model in action before I believe that Intel will be economically viable at soaking up domestic semiconductor demand.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 05-16-2022

(05-16-2022, 08:25 AM)fullmetal Wrote:  GK3 -- Intel's chip plant projects don't actually reshore very much imo.  The demand for semiconductors is high enough that even increasing domestic capacity is unlikely to decrease dependence overseas (plus, Intel doesn't outsource much of its production overseas, though I hear rumblings that this could change at 3nm).  Additionally, I need to see Intel's foundry model in action before I believe that Intel will be economically viable at soaking up domestic semiconductor demand.

Good points.  Last I heard Intel out sourced roughly 20 percent of its non CPU chips, mostly going to TSMC and UMC.  However, I do think they intend to bring back more CPU production to the USA.  I think a large percentage of their chips are made in Taiwan and there could be lots of issues with Taiwan down the road depending on what China decides to do.  We IMO we need to get enough production back to allow us to function if things fall apart in Asia.  Now is the time to start the change, not when things hit the fan.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Maple Leaf - 05-16-2022

Russian Operations Assessments May 15.pdf (understandingwar.org)

Here is a concise update from ISWnst

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-16-2022

(05-16-2022, 07:38 AM)GK3 Wrote:  Another article worth reading
 https://mwi.usma.edu/putins-bad-math-the-root-of-russian-miscalculation-in-ukraine/

Agree. IMHO this is a good read. I especially appreciate the concept that nobody really knows how any given military unit will perform. It isn't an exact science. That is yet another very good reason to always avoid fighting if possible. The Jim Mora effect is real for everybody.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 05-16-2022

(05-16-2022, 08:59 AM)GK3 Wrote:  

(05-16-2022, 08:25 AM)fullmetal Wrote:  GK3 -- Intel's chip plant projects don't actually reshore very much imo.  The demand for semiconductors is high enough that even increasing domestic capacity is unlikely to decrease dependence overseas (plus, Intel doesn't outsource much of its production overseas, though I hear rumblings that this could change at 3nm).  Additionally, I need to see Intel's foundry model in action before I believe that Intel will be economically viable at soaking up domestic semiconductor demand.

Good points.  Last I heard Intel out sourced roughly 20 percent of its non CPU chips, mostly going to TSMC and UMC.  However, I do think they intend to bring back more CPU production to the USA.  I think a large percentage of their chips are made in Taiwan and there could be lots of issues with Taiwan down the road depending on what China decides to do.  We IMO we need to get enough production back to allow us to function if things fall apart in Asia.  Now is the time to start the change, not when things hit the fan.

I bet they're maintaining the Altera etc. fab contracts for any and all acquisitions...but Intel also has at least a few non-US fabs too.  Not sure what nodes they're fabbing.

But of course, the US (much less the world) needs more than just Intel silicon.  Reshoring a substantial amount of production would be good, but there aren't enough semiconductor tools in existence to equip new fabs, and the number of equipment engineers and techs required to staff those fabs is way higher than the US can handle right now.  The expertise required to use and maintain those tools is quite specialized, and those skills aren't taught in universities because those jobs just aren't that lucrative.  A local fab has an agreement with a community college to teach such skills, but this doesn't scale in the way that we need.  TSMC's Phoenix fab has already cannibalized a bunch of the local fab's engineers and sent them over to Taiwan for a couple years' training before the Phoenix site is ready to start work.

tl;dr - we're bottlenecked hard by tool availability and labor supply.  (not to mention helium, argon, neon, etc since the market for those is substantially supplied by Ukraine/Russia)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-16-2022

I would note that there is one dominant lithography company in the world, without their machines no one can make chips.

Meet ASML, the most important company almost no one has heard of.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/03/23/inside-asml-the-company-advanced-chipmakers-use-for-euv-lithography.html

As far as I know, they are the only company who makes far ultraviolet lithography machines and this is the only supplier of the machines needed to make advanced semiconductors.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 05-16-2022

Very true!  And they also need advanced chips to create their machines...those are in short supply too.

Ironically enough, the specific sorts of chips required to get the US automotive industry rolling again are made very old, legacy nodes.  The issue is that the older node technology fab capacity has maxed out, and while it's possible to qualify newer tools to fab older designs, the financials don't work out since newer chips provide way more margin than older chips.  Basically, there's no financial incentive for a fab to build older chips.  We can surmise that automotive chip vendors are either unable to or unwilling to make these contracts happen.  (Secondarily, the lifespan of these contracts might be too short-lived, and fabs like to sign contracts that they can count on to be renewed.)

To bring this full circle, over the medium-term, we will see if Russia can continue their domestic production of modern weaponry (guided missiles, vehicles, etc) without a continued supply of semiconductors.  Switching to Chinese supply will be their only option, and I suspect that Russia will have to scramble quickly to qualify their weapons with new components (I don't imagine that they would have relied on Chinese components in the first place, but maybe I'm wrong?).

And more broadly speaking, how does Russian society operate without non-Chinese chips/technology?  Phones, computers, etc. ...if this drags out any longer, China will have a captive audience for consumer electronics.  Similarly, many south Pacific nations have a dependence on or alignment with Chinese infrastructure due to Chinese foreign policy/aid in the form of donated infrastructure and labor.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-16-2022

If there is any truth to this report, then the Ukrainians effectively just said, "Yeah, crossing a river in a combat zone is difficult, so let us show you how it's done!"

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1526231508914442241/photo/2[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-16-2022

(05-16-2022, 11:23 AM)fullmetal Wrote:  Ironically enough, the specific sorts of chips required to get the US automotive industry rolling again are made very old, legacy nodes.  The issue is that the older node technology fab capacity has maxed out, and while it's possible to qualify newer tools to fab older designs, the financials don't work out since newer chips provide way more margin than older chips.  Basically, there's no financial incentive for a fab to build older chips.  We can surmise that automotive chip vendors are either unable to or unwilling to make these contracts happen.  (Secondarily, the lifespan of these contracts might be too short-lived, and fabs like to sign contracts that they can count on to be renewed.)

No Kidding! One very important chip family is the ADS-1015. The vendors expect new stock to arrive 11/2/2022, but these are all already sold. This is a TI ADC chip that is used EVERYWHERE in the auto industry. As far as "obsolete" chips that are also ubiquitous, consider the FDC6301N, a dual FET that is used as an output stage in many, many products. It is a Fairchild/ONsemi product, showing it's age. Mouser is quoting 5/8/2023. Yes, that is a year from now. That's the good news. That date keeps slipping day for day. These FETS cost $0.51 in single quantities and $0.16 in quantities of 1000. One can see why this very important part isn't at the top of the list because it is so cheap. Yet many products can be completed 99.999% with more "complex" chips, but won't work (and can't be shipped) because their outputs require 16 cent chips one can't get!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 05-16-2022

(05-15-2022, 03:15 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Hate to do this, but rare earth metals are not especially rare.

https://www.thermofisher.com/blog/mining/whats-so-rare-about-rare-earth-elements/

The problem is that they are typically not concentrated nor easy to extract, but the “rare” earths are pretty widely distributed in the Earth’s crust.

BC

Yup.  Cerium is actually the 25th most common element, about the same as copper.  But it doesn't appear in concentrated clusters suitable for mining very often.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-16-2022

As they say “big, if true”

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-15

Russia has possibly run out of reservists to throw at the war. Even if they declare it a war and bring up conscripts, it would take a minimum of six months, and more like a year, to get them ready for combat.

As I said, big *if true*

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 05-16-2022

At that point, it will be even more difficult to hide their lack of success from the general public, although you can bet they'll start conscripting from the eastern regions long before they'll conscript the children of "more European" Russians.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-16-2022

Has th Russian propaganda machine lost the plot?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526293852704890882?s=21&t=NlaaitYjWZmtw2Z-kNAtIw[/tweet]

I don’t think he was supposed to say that in public.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Nan3cy - 05-16-2022

(05-16-2022, 06:14 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Has th Russian propaganda machine lost the plot?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526293852704890882?s=21&t=NlaaitYjWZmtw2Z-kNAtIw[/tweet]

I don’t think he was supposed to say that in public.

BC

We’ll know he wasn’t supposed to say that in public if he has a tragic and fatal “accident” soon…

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-16-2022

(05-16-2022, 01:19 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Russia has possibly run out of reservists to throw at the war.  Even if they declare it a war and bring up conscripts, it would take a minimum of six months, and more like a year, to get them ready for combat.

It depends on what one is expecting them to do and the condition of the force they will be joining. In WWII, basic training was 13 weeks (it varied a bit depending on need). At that point you could get sent to a combat unit that already existed and had an experienced NCO/officer group to hopefully prevent you from getting killed before you actually knew what you were doing. Much more training was necessary for those going into newly-formed units. In Vietnam, basic plus AIT was 16 weeks. At that point you were good to go as a replacement. We weren't forming new units at that time. So, Russia could train up conscripts to fill out existing units in three to four months. If they are creating new units or restoring a unit that is combat ineffective, much more training would be needed, probably closer to at least nine months, as "ojt" wouldn't be possible. You can't conform to the guy next to you if he is clueless as well. If you want a competent mechanized infantry division created from a cadre of experienced folks and mostly draftees/OCS company grade officers, the rule of thumb is a year based on past experience in the US. I also suggest this rule applies to the Ukraine as well as Russia.

Quote:As I said, big *if true*



BC

It may depend a lot on how willing these "reservists" are to report for duty. There are probably many (most?) on the books who have no intention of reporting when called. Even at the best of times this would be true in Russia, and with the next stop being Ukraine, I suspect it is pretty universal. Nobody likes getting killed in a "non-war".

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-17-2022

This article provides some insight into the training issues faced by Ukraine. It also states that the Russian training level is woefully inadequate.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/marine-special-operations-veteran-training-222600230.html. This article also explains a lot about the progress of the war in the Northern Ukraine. Nothing "new" here but it is IMHO important to understand the terrain effects.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-17-2022

First look at the Brimstone missiles in combat use. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1526582495076024321?s=20&t=xLRgIDa-pMjzYHCddpu_dg[/tweet]

For more reading on the Brimstone- we don't know the exact type Ukraine received, and the ground launch range seems unknown/unpublished. Probably similar to the helicopter launched range quoted at 7.5 to 25 miles depending on variant. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brimstone_(missile)

.........

More fallout from the disastrous bridge crossing. The colonel in charge of the engineering brigade tasked with setting up the bridge died. His predecessor also reported to have died previously in Ukraine, in March, also trying to set up a bridge.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1526609112687345664?s=20&t=wmjreseQDqm_BW7O1G_wyg[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/bbcrussian/status/1526591268528214018?s=20&t=wmjreseQDqm_BW7O1G_wyg[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1504612301915230219?s=20&t=wG93ZIBX9arOq0NPz4Hp_A[/tweet]

Conscripts and reservists can't replace these losses. But I suppose it would be hard for them to perform much worse?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-17-2022

Remember the Azovstal!  A city that was supposed to fall in a matter of days (maybe weeks), held out for 80 days, diverting valuable Russian resources from elsewhere.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/hannaliubakova/status/1526312579144028161?s=21&t=icC6KfUSvWOrGkc4nr7n_Q[/tweet]

Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive.

BC

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