Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-19-2022

Earlier in the conflict, there was a discussion here about the ability of the Baltics to defend themselves from Russian aggression.  I'm revealed my naivete by writing that NATO could deter aggression with 20k troops.  But the Baltics now are seeking 3 new multinational battalions and a Division HQ in case of a need to surge the number of troops there.  This article indicates that the Baltics' plans would result in a total of 9 battalions across the 3 countries: https://twitter.com/RobbieGramer/status/1527373790925074447?cxt=HHwWnsCl9dqXqbIqAAAA.  And since the Baltics use NATO systems and equipement, they'd presumably have F-16s and Patriots.  Plus, if Finland and Sweden join NATO, there would be substantial additional resources in close proximity.  We also know that the Baltics are building physical barriers between themselves and Russian territory to provide fortification against an attack.  You all tell me whether or not that level of force and fortification would be a pushover for Russia.  On the surface, it seems like it would be a credible defense.  Of course, there's the big "if."  We don't know whether NATO actually would be willing to adopt the Baltics' proposed plan.  It's a big commitment of resources and it could be the type of provocation we don't want to try.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-19-2022

If at first you don’t succeed, fail again and again?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/nrg8000/status/1525026671308734464?s=21&t=Jwy1LFzzoqP7SncQm53PKA[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-19-2022

(05-19-2022, 06:58 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  If at first you don’t succeed, fail again and again?



BC

Don't laugh. This is a time-honored Russian tactic. Keep banging away until the other side makes a mistake/runs out of troops. It worked when Russia had a mass army and bodies to burn. Today, not so much. They may run out of troops first. Let's hope so.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-19-2022

(05-19-2022, 04:55 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Earlier in the conflict, there was a discussion here about the ability of the Baltics to defend themselves from Russian aggression.  I'm revealed my naivete by writing that NATO could deter aggression with 20k troops.  But the Baltics now are seeking 3 new multinational battalions and a Division HQ in case of a need to surge the number of troops there.  This article indicates that the Baltics' plans would result in a total of 9 battalions across the 3 countries: https://twitter.com/RobbieGramer/status/1527373790925074447?cxt=HHwWnsCl9dqXqbIqAAAA.  And since the Baltics use NATO systems and equipement, they'd presumably have F-16s and Patriots.  Plus, if Finland and Sweden join NATO, there would be substantial additional resources in close proximity.  We also know that the Baltics are building physical barriers between themselves and Russian territory to provide fortification against an attack.  You all tell me whether or not that level of force and fortification would be a pushover for Russia.  On the surface, it seems like it would be a credible defense.  Of course, there's the big "if."  We don't know whether NATO actually would be willing to adopt the Baltics' proposed plan.  It's a big commitment of resources and it could be the type of provocation we don't want to try.

OK, I am crazy enough to take a crack at this. Right now, Russia is in no condition to even think about attacking anybody else. They are manpower limited in a big way. So, as far as attacking the Baltics, it will have to be sometime in the future, probably years from now. By that point, Russia may have been able to "fix" their current set of problems, or not. 9 battalions is 2/3 of a division, give or take. Another way to look at it is 9 BTGs (sort of). Russia used over 100 BTGs in Ukraine, so no, by themselves 9 battalions is not adequate to overcome such a force. OTOH, actually using 100 BTGs against the Baltics would be hard because there aren't that many ways in. The Russians may end up with gridlock again and NATO will not just sit there while they sort it out.

NATO isn't going to deploy 9 battalions forward in the Baltics. All that will do is get more NATO troops killed. The Baltics defense actually rests on the idea that Article 5 will result in NATO attacking Russia in places that will hurt the most at times of NATO's choosing and where NATO has an advantage. The Baltics are not such a place. Destroying Kaliningrad is much more important than holding Vilnius. Using DEAD to achieve air superiority (hopefully supremacy) over European Russia will be a priority. Defending the German ports will be a priority. NATO will deploy just enough troops in the Baltics to ensure that Americans and Germans (Brits optional) die if Russia attacks there. That is what they are there to do. It gives teeth to Article 5.

Right now, NATO is so under-resourced we should be glad the Russians are as TFU as they appear to be. Look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Army. They list two Panzer divisions. 1st Panzer is kind of alright, two armored brigade and one infantry brigade (The Dutch are along for the ride). 10th Panzer is nothing like a Panzer division. They have one armored brigade, one mechanized infantry brigade, and one mountain brigade. The mountain brigade is the remnant of what used to be a mountain division. They were some of the best mountain troops in the world. They have little organic transport and have nothing at all in common with a Panzer division. They can't keep up walking. Germany used to supply 12 divisions, 8 of which were first rate and 4 of which would be three weeks or so after the war started (Reservisten Soldaten were about 20% of the troops). Today they have one Panzer division and one melange. The British Army of The Rhine was four division in the 70s. It no longer exists. So, if a war starts, thank God Russia appears to be in worse shape than we are. How long that will persist is the question.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-20-2022

Ooooooooof

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1527631925367668738?s=20&t=fbL7WDpo65ZedkytHdWx8A[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-20-2022

This is not a surprise or even a "bad thing". https://www.yahoo.com/news/finnish-prime-minister-says-joining-093628933.html. Just to clarify what Sweden and Finland do not expect to happen in the near future.

Different topic. The frustration of the Ukrainian side is understandable. https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-resists-ukrainian-demands-long-193056507.html. I would think persuading some European allies to give up some MLRS is a good way ahead. Then we can send HIMARS once the rocket threshold has been crossed.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-20-2022

Ukraine is receiving Iranian arms, likely seized by US previously and intended for the Houthis in Yemen.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1527691142023847938?s=20&t=RfeuJmnsdczN3bx4bwzzzg[/tweet]

The earlier tweet thread linked in that tweet is regarding a cache of weapons a Ukrainian police patrol had found, but probably placed by other Ukrainian forces as a leave behind cache in the event of Russia overtaking the area.

Very interesting!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-20-2022

This makes me wonder when the US will start to see equipment that it left behind in Afghanistan being used on the battlefield against the US and its allies.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 05-20-2022

(05-20-2022, 10:38 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  This makes me wonder when the US will start to see equipment that it left behind in Afghanistan being used on the battlefield against the US and its allies.

One thing I think that remains very important is can the Ukraine prevent Russia from gaining clear air superiority.  Today's weapons can be so accurate and inflict so much damage it is important we keep them supplied with whatever they need to prevent Russian air superiotity.

As an aside, todays communications systems, GPS, and satellites are so much different than yesteryear I have a hard imagining how nice would have been to have had them back in the day.  The PRC 6 and PRC 25 left a lot to be desired, plus using morse code for commo into denied areas is something else again. Plus I had some guys who would have given anything to avoid carrying the PRC 25.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-21-2022

(05-20-2022, 03:54 PM)GK3 Wrote:  One thing I think that remains very important is can the Ukraine prevent Russia from gaining clear air superiority.  Today's weapons can be so accurate and inflict so much damage it is important we keep them supplied with whatever they need to prevent Russian air superiotity.

It is unclear why Russia doesn't have that already. There are two contributing factors IMHO. One is, it appears they have no doctrine on how to destroy the opposition's air defenses. While the S-300 long-range systems are very mobile, they aren't operational while moving. Ukraine isn't moving them every hour. The acquisition radars are easily geolocated by ESM (if Ukraine is even using them). The S-300 target illuminators are also detectable. Russia has anti-radiation missiles that can hit those targets. It may be Russia doesn't have enough such missiles, in which case they would have to fall back to geolocation and precision strike weapons. The Russians have, on paper, the ability to do this. It takes a while, maybe a few months, to attrit the enemy air defense that way to a point of ineffectiveness, but it can be done. They have had a few months and didn't do it. It is nothing Ukraine has done, except probably moving S-300 batteries as much as possible and not using target illuminators except when necessary. It is also possible Russia has so few cruise missiles capable of precision strike that they won't use them for SEAD. If so, they are in a world of hurt. However, they can always revert to Iron Hand methods. They will lose pilots that way, but it does work if you have the will. Maybe they don't. Eliminating or greatly attenuating the Ukraine's high altitude air defense should have been possible for Russia, one way or another. They haven't done it. If they had, Russian air could drop even dumb bombs with relative impunity. Hasn't happened. To be clear, this isn't a US level SEAD/DEAD effort, but only a reasonable facsimile against an enemy that isn't attacking your airfields or mounting a SEAD mission against you. Very, very doable.

The second problem is that Russia may feel that their air force can't inflict enough damage on the Ukranian military from high altitude bombing to make it worth their effort. They may just suck at that due to not training for that mission. They also may be so low on precision weapons that that they are not an option, and they may not have any viable stand-in weapons to use anyway. Obtaining low altitude air supremacy/superiority on today's battlefield is impossible due to MANPADS. TORs and Pantsirs are also problems. You can suppress but not eliminate radar guided low altitude weapons, but the IR ones or the optically guided ones are hard to get rid of. The US has adopted a "just don't go there" approach, but possibly Russia cannot. Russia also appears unwilling to engage Ukrainian fighter aircraft. Why is unclear.

So, it isn't so much what NATO has done. It is more what Russia didn't/isn't doing IMHO.

Quote:As an aside, todays communications systems, GPS, and satellites are so much different than yesteryear I have a hard imagining how nice would have been to have had them back in the day.  The PRC 6 and PRC 25 left a lot to be desired, plus using morse code for commo into denied areas is something else again. Plus I had some guys who would have given anything to avoid carrying the PRC 25.

The SINCGARS effort surely has been a boon to secure radio communications. I guess the replacement for that system is coming "soon" although interoperability is a big consideration. Back in the 80s anything that hopped at faster than 100 hops per second was a big ITAR no-no. Today, 1000 hops per second is considered "slow" hopping. Even back then, such signals could be DFed if you had the right equipment. The Russian versions seem to not be working or so bound up in security red tape that they have to rely on Cell phones in many cases. Russia is also actively jamming GPS wherever they can/need to. They are good at this, but possibly asset limited. There was a good video of a jamming site being destroyed. These jammers are very vulnerable because in order to work they obviously must transmit. Hazardous to their health.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-21-2022

Russian war journalism fail

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1528046140847198210?s=20&t=UAcTl2g2spCf0aM25tVvrA[/tweet]

Here's the video from yesterday

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1527736499407552513?s=20&t=70nzRiKXHjCE1eIkmh5tCQ[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 05-21-2022

(05-21-2022, 09:35 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Russian war journalism fail

Quote:It is worth a note that this may be down to the famous Russian Journalist Sasha Kots, who published images less than a day ago of this mortar firing at Ukrainian forces at precisely the same location.

It is NOT "precisely the same location".  It is between two buildings in both the report & the video of the strike, but the alignment of the buildings don't agree.  In the overhead view of the strike, you see girders stick out of the burned-out building on the left, which aren't seen in the reporter's shots.  Most telling is that in the report, the mortar is on an asphalt roadway while in the overhead view of the strike, there is no such roadway.

It may be the same mortar using the same tactic of hiding between buildings, but it is between a different set of buildings.  The journalist's pictures may have allowed someone to know its precise location when the pictures were taken, and it may have been located nearby by a drone.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-21-2022

I have noticed the Ukrainian videos rarely include identifiable buildings or terrain features that could allow their position to be geolocated. Their targets are often geolocatable of course.

The Tylupan pictured fires the largest mortar rounds in the world, but it's maximum range is only 10k km with standard rounds and 20k km with rocket assisted rounds. So Ukrainian artillery could easily outrange it, and seems to have done so.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-21-2022

And MT you are correct. It's not the same location but it's close, a few hundred feet.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1528046294782066695?s=20&t=9a3y8ELD3NxbNOjkQuwZIw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-22-2022

Here's the nitty gritty of that Tyulpan take out. It looks like it escapes some inaccurate artillery fire and moves a short distance to new cover, but the drone has it monitored.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1528378817621917696?s=20&t=wsS6D9uFLqqG7-psUvpxag[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-22-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1528358951456100353?s=21&t=ZXBDUSdmxh94gdd8hxvslA[/tweet]

Lol.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 05-22-2022

(05-22-2022, 09:46 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Here's the nitty gritty of that Tyulpan take out. It looks like it escapes some inaccurate artillery fire and moves a short distance to new cover, but the drone has it monitored.

Tweet

I guess no one reminded that Russian crew to Beware the Tree.

On the serious side, as we enjoy the performance of our Stanford teams and athletes, it is sobering to realize the death and destruction that happens across the globe at the same time. Not all of it is country vs country, but on this Memorial Day, it would be a good time to remember and reflect upon its meaning.

We may despise Russia for what it is doing, and particular Russians for what they've done, but the individuals that died in that strike and in all the attacks before (whatever their nationality), had family that will grieve for their deaths.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Softball Fan - 05-23-2022

Russian Ruble is at a four year high versus the dollar and is surging higher.  Italy and Spain have decided to pay for Russian natural gas in rubles.  I haven't followed the West's sanctions against Russia.  There appears to be some gaps in the policy.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-23-2022

Denmark sending Harpoons to Ukraine. They were last country to use a land based system, maybe they finally got it dusted off and operational. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/DeptofDefense/status/1528786816551231489?s=20&t=REpOB99TD4XHLDn_kV3Yyw[/tweet]

Unlikely we will see it in action unless Russia gets very careless with where they place their capital ships.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 05-23-2022

Per https://twitter.com/JackDetsch, Czechia is sending attack helicopters, rocket systems, and more tanks to Ukraine.  It seems we will slowly get more updates thanks to today's conference.  I wonder if we finally see an announcement of MiG's, or maybe they keep sending "parts" that miraculously increase the air fleet for UA forces.

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Another announcement, same source, "Italy, Greece, Norway & Poland are providing artillery systems and ammunition to Ukraine"

Sorry, I have not learned to integrate tweets directly...

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