Going pro/coming back thread - Printable Version
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Going pro/coming back thread (/thread-15300.html)
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Going pro/coming back thread (/thread-15300.html)
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - Langdude - 01-09-2018
(01-09-2018, 08:45 PM)CTcard link Wrote:[quote author=Big Brother link=topic=18429.msg220865#msg220865 date=1515555495]
I'm assuming that Terrance Alexander is on the Casey Tucker plan as well. Get the degree and keep eligibility for one more year somewhere else.
Alexander played vs Rice. So, to have eligibility he would have to apply for a medical redshirt to have any eligibility left. He would have played little enough, and early enough, to satisfy that part of it.
However, unlike Tucker where this was discussed from back in fall camp, I have not heard the same about Alexander (though that could be mainly a comment on my ability to hear).
[/quote]
Is that true? He played his true freshman year, so he hasn't taken a year off already. Why would it have to be a medical redshirt and not merely an ordinary redshirt?
-m.
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - CTcard - 01-09-2018
(01-09-2018, 09:09 PM)Langdude link Wrote:[quote author=CTcard link=topic=18429.msg220867#msg220867 date=1515555957]
[quote author=Big Brother link=topic=18429.msg220865#msg220865 date=1515555495]
I'm assuming that Terrance Alexander is on the Casey Tucker plan as well. Get the degree and keep eligibility for one more year somewhere else.
Alexander played vs Rice. So, to have eligibility he would have to apply for a medical redshirt to have any eligibility left. He would have played little enough, and early enough, to satisfy that part of it.
However, unlike Tucker where this was discussed from back in fall camp, I have not heard the same about Alexander (though that could be mainly a comment on my ability to hear).
[/quote]
Is that true? He played his true freshman year, so he hasn't taken a year off already. Why would it have to be a medical redshirt and not merely an ordinary redshirt?
-m.
[/quote]
Because he played in at least one game this year.
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - winflop - 01-10-2018
Meeks announces he is leaving early
https://twitter.com/ShowtimeQM/status/951138006458556417
Only one more shoe to drop - the biggest one
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - BigEasyCard - 01-10-2018
(01-10-2018, 10:21 AM)winflop link Wrote:Meeks announces he is leaving early
https://twitter.com/ShowtimeQM/status/951138006458556417
Only one more shoe to drop - the biggest one
Another classy departure letter. I especially like the commitment to return for his degree.
I wish the best in the NFL for all of our players who pursue that dream.
Geaux Cardinal!
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - washingtonismoney - 01-10-2018
This might be a bit early, but it's curious that Phillips, Reid, and Meeks are all declaring for the draft from a pretty mediocre defense. Obviously OK teams might have stellar individuals, but it raises an eyebrow when a substantial percentage of a unit is pro-ready and yet said unit performs average, at best.
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - winflop - 01-10-2018
Quote:
(01-10-2018, 10:31 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:This might be a bit early, but it's curious that Phillips, Reid, and Meeks are all declaring for the draft from a pretty mediocre defense. Obviously OK teams might have stellar individuals, but it raises an eyebrow when a substantial percentage of a unit is pro-ready and yet said unit performs average, at best.
I think when you factor out the substantial injury issues that plagued us this year, our defense was well above mediocre.
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - BostonCard - 01-10-2018
(01-10-2018, 10:31 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:This might be a bit early, but it's curious that Phillips, Reid, and Meeks are all declaring for the draft from a pretty mediocre defense. Obviously OK teams might have stellar individuals, but it raises an eyebrow when a substantial percentage of a unit is pro-ready and yet said unit performs average, at best.
Yes, I have noted everywhere that this year, the whole seemed less than the sum of its parts. I think, though, star power alone is usually not enough to power a defense, and if you have some weak spots, especially at the defensive line, that makes even a defense featuring very good players vulnerable. It really only takes one player out of position, one missed tackle, or one guy beaten one-on-one to make a well-defended play that is held to three yards into a big game, and how many times did we see that happen this year?
With all the departures on defense, we either have to hope that we have few weak spots next year and that even without NFL caliber players at most positions, the defense can go back to being competent, or we are going to have to win a bunch of shootouts.
I think the "way too early" top-20 ranking may indeed have been "way too early".
BC
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - TreesAndBirds - 01-10-2018
31 wins in 33 starts. That is impressive.
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - washingtonismoney - 01-10-2018
(01-10-2018, 10:33 AM)winflop link Wrote:I think when you factor out the substantial injury issues that plagued us this year, our defense was well above mediocre.
I don't think this rationale works. First of all, I'm not convinced the injuries were all that substantial -- we'd need to see some comparative evidence. To take one example, all three guys who declared for the draft were healthy all year.
Second, the injuries by and large struck late in the year. Barton got injured early (against SDSU) but virtually all of the other injuries hit the team late. The next major injury was Holder's, against OSU -- more than halfway through the year. Here's the percentile performances (per BCFToys) from before and after OSU:
Before: .538
After: .491
So it's fair to say that performance declined after the injuries hit, but it's hardly as if the defense was playing well in the first place. 53rd percentile is, to me, pretty mediocre. Maybe others would disagree.
At any rate, another part of the problem with blaming injuries is that...there were plenty of injuries in 2016 too, and plenty of injuries to the offense as well. Injuries happen in football, practically by definition, and if you can't sustain performance through injury you are, in football terms, not terribly good. More subtly, the injuries sustained in 2016 should've prepared backups to step up. Alijah Holder getting replaced by Alameen Murphy was a loss, but then again Murphy was a solid cog in 2016 when asked to start.
So I think something went wrong with the defense this year, and "injuries" doesn't cut the mustard as a reason.
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - OutsiderFan - 01-10-2018
As good as Phillips was, the defense was weak when he wasn't playing. Plus, Jackson and Cotton were just mediocre anyway. Add in the fact there was very little outside pass rush, and you have a recipe for the defense being less than great, even with some very good players.
The only way Stanford managed 9 wins and was close enough to win all games but one, was turnovers. Stanford was #1 among all Power 5 teams in turnover margin in 2017. That covers a lot of defensive warts.
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - Spiny_Norman - 01-10-2018
RJ Abeytia talks about Phillips, Schultz, Reid and Meeks in a free post.
https://247sports.com/college/stanford/Gallery/Stanford-Cardinal-Harrison-Phillips-Dalton-Schultz-Justin-Reid-Declare-Intentions-To-Enter-NFL-Draft-113316788
RJ cites their respective evaluations from Pro Football Focus based on on-field performance. Among the four, only Phillips rated at an elite level nationally.
Phillips - Nationally, PFF graded him as the fifth-best interior 3-4 lineman in the country.
Schultz - In 2016, Schultz graded out as the best tight end [in the Pac 12] across the board per PFF . . . He graded out as the ninth-best tight end in the Pac-12 among players who played at least 50% of his snaps in 2017.
Reid - Pro Football Focus graded Reid as the nations 42nd-best draft eligible safety among players who played at least 60% of his teams defensive snaps and the third-best in the Pac-12 behind USCs Chris Hawkins and Washingtons Taylor Rapp.
Meeks - Meeks graded out as the fourth-best corner in the Pac-12 in 2017. Nationally, he graded out at 49th. Each year, the QB Rating against Meeks improved, with this year ending at 86. 143 corners had a lower number.
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - MustardtheBallCarrier - 01-10-2018
(01-10-2018, 10:49 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:As good as Phillips was, the defense was weak when he wasn't playing. Plus, Jackson and Cotton were just mediocre anyway. Add in the fact there was very little outside pass rush, and you have a recipe for the defense being less than great, even with some very good players.
The only way Stanford managed 9 wins and was close enough to win all games but one, was turnovers. Stanford was #1 among all Power 5 teams in turnover margin in 2017. That covers a lot of defensive warts.
I think this post nails it exactly. +100. The defense was not good this year, propped up by tremendous turnover luck. Phillips was a one-man wrecking crew, but the front 7 was otherwise pretty weak by recent standards. No ability to generate consistent pass rush. In the secondary, I'm not sure we were not overrating our talent all year. Yes, there were significant injuries (and the aforementioned lack of pass rush), but the hallmark of this secondary was supposed to be its depth and athleticism. Against USC, TCU and ND, our secondary was simply no match and couldn't keep up with WR in coverage or tackle better athletes in space. I really like Justin Reid, but is he the highly instinctive and versatile player from the first 10 or so games or is he the player who repeatedly got beat by NFL caliber WR against USC and ND.
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - Mick - 01-10-2018
(01-10-2018, 10:31 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:This might be a bit early, but it's curious that Phillips, Reid, and Meeks are all declaring for the draft from a pretty mediocre defense. Obviously OK teams might have stellar individuals, but it raises an eyebrow when a substantial percentage of a unit is pro-ready and yet said unit performs average, at best.
I think they would all have been better off if they'd stayed for another year.
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - Mick - 01-10-2018
(01-10-2018, 12:19 PM)Spiny_Norman link Wrote:RJ Abeytia talks about Phillips, Schultz, Reid and Meeks in a free post.
https://247sports.com/college/stanford/Gallery/Stanford-Cardinal-Harrison-Phillips-Dalton-Schultz-Justin-Reid-Declare-Intentions-To-Enter-NFL-Draft-113316788
RJ cites their respective evaluations from Pro Football Focus based on on-field performance. Among the four, only Phillips rated at an elite level nationally.
Phillips - Nationally, PFF graded him as the fifth-best interior 3-4 lineman in the country.
Schultz - In 2016, Schultz graded out as the best tight end [in the Pac 12] across the board per PFF . . . He graded out as the ninth-best tight end in the Pac-12 among players who played at least 50% of his snaps in 2017.
Reid - Pro Football Focus graded Reid as the nations 42nd-best draft eligible safety among players who played at least 60% of his teams defensive snaps and the third-best in the Pac-12 behind U$Cs Chris Hawkins and Washingtons Taylor Rapp.
Meeks - Meeks graded out as the fourth-best corner in the Pac-12 in 2017. Nationally, he graded out at 49th. Each year, the QB Rating against Meeks improved, with this year ending at 86. 143 corners had a lower number.
Wow. I had no idea that those three were that weak. BOY would they be better off had they stayed for another year.
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - DC 86 - 01-10-2018
(01-10-2018, 10:46 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:[quote author=winflop link=topic=18429.msg220903#msg220903 date=1515605604]
I think when you factor out the substantial injury issues that plagued us this year, our defense was well above mediocre.
I don't think this rationale works. First of all, I'm not convinced the injuries were all that substantial -- we'd need to see some comparative evidence. To take one example, all three guys who declared for the draft were healthy all year.
Second, the injuries by and large struck late in the year. Barton got injured early (against SDSU) but virtually all of the other injuries hit the team late. The next major injury was Holder's, against OSU -- more than halfway through the year. Here's the percentile performances (per BCFToys) from before and after OSU:
Before: .538
After: .491
So it's fair to say that performance declined after the injuries hit, but it's hardly as if the defense was playing well in the first place. 53rd percentile is, to me, pretty mediocre. Maybe others would disagree.
At any rate, another part of the problem with blaming injuries is that...there were plenty of injuries in 2016 too, and plenty of injuries to the offense as well. Injuries happen in football, practically by definition, and if you can't sustain performance through injury you are, in football terms, not terribly good. More subtly, the injuries sustained in 2016 should've prepared backups to step up. Alijah Holder getting replaced by Alameen Murphy was a loss, but then again Murphy was a solid cog in 2016 when asked to start.
So I think something went wrong with the defense this year, and "injuries" doesn't cut the mustard as a reason.
[/quote]
+1. Every team suffers injuries, if anything Stanford's defense was pretty fortunate this year with regard to injuries.
Setting aside that Alabama lost their entire linebacking corps and still hung in to eventually win the national championship, even our direct rivals were hit harder than we were in terms of season ending injuries:
Washington lost both starting cornerbacks including Jordan Miller who had been first team All-Pac 12 in 2016; Murphy actually came back for the final two games of the season but was out for almost two months. Cal lost their (by far) best defender, Devante Downs for the season, in addition to Cameron Saffle who had 8.5 TFL in 2016. Oregon lost two starting linebackers (Apelu, Hotchkins) while WSU lost their best linebacker (and possibly best defender) Peyton Pelluer for the season as well. USC didn't lose any stars but three projected defensive starters went out including Porter Gustin.
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - CTcard - 01-10-2018
(01-10-2018, 12:27 PM)MustardtheBallCarrier link Wrote:In the secondary, I'm not sure we were not overrating our talent all year. Yes, there were significant injuries (and the aforementioned lack of pass rush), but the hallmark of this secondary was supposed to be its depth and athleticism. Against U$C, TCU and ND, our secondary was simply no match and couldn't keep up with WR in coverage or tackle better athletes in space. I really like Justin Reid, but is he the highly instinctive and versatile player from the first 10 or so games or is he the player who repeatedly got beat by NFL caliber WR against U$C and ND.
The secondary was not as good as I expected it to be, and I think I was more skeptical than average.
Losing Reid looks like a big blow to me.
Reid appeared to be the captain of what was going on out there, at least among the backfield.
He mostly (but not always) got beat while playing as a corner rather than a true safety. But he was asked to do so because he was often the best choice there as well.
He was the second leading tackler on the team/most solo tackles (which isn't really great news for a defense if a safety has that distinction but it's not a knock on him), and he led the team in both INTs and passes defended.
More importantly, the situation for replacement looks thin. At corner, we hopefully will get Holder back (for a full season I hope) and there's lots of guys who have either played a fair bit or came in with significant promise. At safety ... less so.
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - qwerty49 - 01-10-2018
I share your concerns. But I'd also like to know a bit more about how players were "graded out" in terms of process and data.
I think Reid's versatility might have worked against his stats. He seems totally at home as a SS, and also as a ballhawking FS, but less so as NB.
The stats indicate Meeks regressed, but I get the impression opponents did not throw much against Meeks after his first year. Of course I'm too inept to find any stats on how many times he was targeted, and the QBR is a very telling piece of data.
Schultz's blocking doesn't show up on any stats, does it?
As a fan I sure wish they had stayed, but I think even 6th or 7th round money is much greater than anything a new grad can make in other careers. These kids put their bodies on the line and the sooner they can get paid for it, the better.Â
(01-10-2018, 12:41 PM)Mick link Wrote:[quote author=Spiny_Norman link=topic=18429.msg220918#msg220918 date=1515611992]
RJ Abeytia talks about Phillips, Schultz, Reid and Meeks in a free post.
https://247sports.com/college/stanford/Gallery/Stanford-Cardinal-Harrison-Phillips-Dalton-Schultz-Justin-Reid-Declare-Intentions-To-Enter-NFL-Draft-113316788
RJ cites their respective evaluations from Pro Football Focus based on on-field performance. Among the four, only Phillips rated at an elite level nationally.
Phillips - Nationally, PFF graded him as the fifth-best interior 3-4 lineman in the country.
Schultz - In 2016, Schultz graded out as the best tight end [in the Pac 12] across the board per PFF . . . He graded out as the ninth-best tight end in the Pac-12 among players who played at least 50% of his snaps in 2017.
Reid - Pro Football Focus graded Reid as the nations 42nd-best draft eligible safety among players who played at least 60% of his teams defensive snaps and the third-best in the Pac-12 behind U$Cs Chris Hawkins and Washingtons Taylor Rapp.
Meeks - Meeks graded out as the fourth-best corner in the Pac-12 in 2017. Nationally, he graded out at 49th. Each year, the QB Rating against Meeks improved, with this year ending at 86. 143 corners had a lower number.
Wow. I had no idea that those three were that weak. BOY would they be better off had they stayed for another year.
[/quote]
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - Bruce Wang - 01-10-2018
Meeks declared.
It boggles my mind that we have a thread dedicated to numerous early departures. It means we have been recruiting players good enough to leave early. It's a bummer, but we are happy for them and hope they come back to finish their degrees.
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - GK3 - 01-10-2018
Love is going to do whatever he feels is best for him and his lifetime ambitions. I have always been of the opinion that Love is far different from Mac in that he has significant non- football aspirations. He may well leave, but I don't feel it is any better than a 50/50 bet. He is not going to do we might do in his situation because he is not us and seems bright enough to make his own decisions without our help.
Re: Going pro/coming back thread - donkey687 - 01-10-2018
It seems like we get more than our fair share of early departures. It is very rare for anyone to come back to Stanford that is projected to be drafted. It used to be first round guys declared. Now, it seems that anyone who is projected in later rounds still declares. I hope Love breaks the trend. I think Reid and Meeks probably planned the spacing of their announcements to not steal each others thunder so it wouldn't surprise me if we get another announcement (Love) tomorrow.
If you read the draft prognostications before the season even started, they said that Reid, Meeks, Schultz, Holder and Phillips would all likely declare this year. That was based on inside knowledge not draft preductions. Those guys were working out all summer and all season with the NFL on their minds so a mediocre draft evaluation didn't change their minds. I can't blame them. It is their lives and careers, but it does seem to take some focus away from the team when such a high number of players are planning on leaving early.Â