Outside Topic SF Giants 2025 - Printable Version
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RE: SF Giants 2025 - Goose - 02-05-2025
(02-05-2025, 10:31 PM)Giants Wrote: I do not understand how some voters can claim the moral high ground when there is no way anyone can absolutely say all players elected in the modern era disdained the use of PED’s. That is what makes no sense to me.Some (very few) players have actually been "convicted" (or confessed to) using PEDs. They are not in the HOF, usually for other reasons. For the rest of the players who may be HOF candidates, the voters have every right to follow the "preponderance of evidence" standard. Each juror (voter) has a right to decide their take on any candidate. It is not a requirement that the candidate prove their innocence, but rather that the preponderance of evidence doesn't indicate they are guilty.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 02-06-2025
There are cretins (PED-using and otherwise) who aren't in the HoF. Some sportswriters overlook that, some don't.
On the other hand, you have some wonderful ambassadors of the game, players who were head and shoulders above the typical player. Take Lefty O"Doul. Played in the majors, technically, for 11 seasons. One of the few who played for the Giants, Dodgers and Yankees (he was mainly a Giant and Phillie) when they were all in New York. He has the third-highest batting average in MLB history at .349, but not enough ABs to justify it (3,264 with 1,140 hits). Served in the U. S. Navy from 1917-19. Won two NL batting titles in his five full MLB seasons in 1929 and 1932. Let MLB in hits with 254 in 1929, also OBP that year. Finished 2nd and 3rd in MVP voting those two years.
He crushed it in the PCL when it was virtually a third major league. Had 309 hits in 1925 for Salt Lake City, then 223 and 278 the next two years and finally returned to MLB baseball at age 31, hitting .319 for the Giants, got traded to Philly, then the Dodgers, then back to the Giants where he won a WS in 1933 and made the All Star team as a half-time player (who was third on the Giants in HRs).
O'Doul basically built baseball in Japan. He made multiple trips there before and after WWII, and the Tokyo Giants were named by O'Doul...he's in the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame. On 11/5/21, he was selected to the final ballot for the HoF Early Days COmmittee for consideration the class of 2022. He received five of the necessary 12 votes. Buck O'Neil and Bud Fowler were elected.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 02-10-2025
Ex-Giants GM joins rival team after his firing
Making it official. Farhan has returned to the Dodgers as a special advisor. He worked for the Dodgers from 2014 to 2018.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Giants - 02-10-2025
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1739227814' Wrote: 1739227814[/url]']
Ex-Giants GM joins rival team after his firing
Making it official. Farhan has returned to the Dodgers as a special advisor. He worked for the Dodgers from 2014 to 2018.
Future historians will note this date in history marked the beginning of the end of the Dodger Empire….
The rending of garments and the gnashing of teeth in Los Angeles starts tonight….
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 02-13-2025
(02-10-2025, 06:44 PM)Giants Wrote:Mick dateline='[url=tel:1739227814' Wrote: 1739227814[/url]']
Ex-Giants GM joins rival team after his firing
Making it official. Farhan has returned to the Dodgers as a special advisor. He worked for the Dodgers from 2014 to 2018.
Future historians will note this date in history marked the beginning of the end of the Dodger Empire….
The rending of garments and the gnashing of teeth in Los Angeles starts tonight….
Works for me.
I'd like to see the Giants get gold gloves for three infielders this year. Last time was Posey, Panik and Crawford in 2016. Before that, Manwaring, Robby Thompson and Matt Williams in 1993.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 02-13-2025
(02-02-2025, 05:51 PM)Giants Wrote: 18. Verlander needs to win 13.
Wow! That’s optimistic. I think 10 is pretty much all we can expect.
I think you're right on the ten wins, based upon the records of other 42 year old pitchers:
Warren Spahn, 23-7, All Star
Randy Johnson, 17-11
Nolan Ryan was 16-10, All Star
David Wells, 15-7
Bartolo Colon, 14-13
Roger Clemens, 13-8
Jamie Moyer, 13-7
Dennis Martinez, 9-6
Gaylord Perry, 8-9
Phil Niekro, 7-7 (but was 17-4 the next year...and a knuckleballer)
Jim Kaat, 6-6
John Smoltz, 3-8
Kenny Rogers, 3-4
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 02-16-2025
(02-03-2025, 11:20 AM)Mick Wrote: 13. Whatever was bothering Doval needs to be gone. Walker will be the closer, but Doval is still necessary.
Yep. Doval was all over the map last year. Had an okay April March and a great May. Flat out tanked in June and July. Had a terrific August and a mediocre Sept/Oct. I know the pitching coach can speak Spanish, hope there are fewer communications issues.
Article in the SJMN about Doval. He blew five saves last year, and except for walks, his numbers were excellent. He maintained an elite 97+ mph fastball, 87th percentile for strikeouts (28.8%), 95th percentile whiff rate (34.3%), 96th percentile expected batting average (.187), only gave up .187 BA on his slider.
But he walked nearly six batters per nine innings, nearly twice his career average of 3.60. Makes me wonder if he was tipping pitches...
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Giants - 02-16-2025
Yasmiero Petit is in camp working with Doval. Maybe he can explain how to get the ball over the plate. His six inning outing v. Washington in extra innings in the playoffs is legendary.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 02-16-2025
Funnily enough, Doval's best year was his first season in MLB. He was 5-1, with a 1.037 WHIP, both career bests. And his 2022 and 2023 ERAs were both very strong, 2.53 and 2.93. But his 2024 numbers doubled the percentages of home runs given up and walks. Not good.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 02-17-2025
FanGraphs' ZiPS projections for the Giants include:
- Regression from Willy Adames by 40% to 4.2 WAR, down from 32 HRs to 23, down from 112 RBIs to 83.
- Jung Hoo Lee will play 101 games, hit .280, 2.8 WAR
- Bailey will improve slightly, .235, 10 HRs, 4.2 fWAR
- Ramos and Fitzgerald continuing their breakouts, predicting that Fitz will be 4th most valuable Giant and Ramos 5th most valuable. 1.7 WAR in LF, 3.3 WAR for Fitz, 4.8 for Chappy, 1.3 for DH.
- Eldridge for 122 games and 16 home runs and .243/.303/.401/.704, with bad defense and 0 WAR.
- Villar will play 119 games with 1.9 WAR, lots of 1st base.
- Projects Yaz at 2.6 WAR, 1B at 1.9 overall WAR
- Logan Webb with 4.4 WAR, 3.22 ERA, 195 innings
- Expects Kyle Harrison to struggle with slight improvement to 4.21 ERA in 117.7 innings
- Erik Miller at 2.66 ERA.
- Thinks Tristan Beck is coming back.
- Robbie Ray will pitch 108 innings at 3.91 ERA, but will give up too many HRs. Limited walks at 2.91/9 innings
- Verlander will bounce back with a 4.15 ERA, 117 innings, only 6.77 K's per 9 innings.
- Walker will recede with 71 innings, large jump in ERA from 1.81 to 3.03, declines in strikeout, walk and HR numbers.
- Whisenhunt will contribute with 101.7 innings and a 4.25 ERA.
- Camilo Doval improves to 4.43 BB/9 (down from 5.95), still expects a 3.46 ERA (down from 4.88).
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-zips-projections-san-francisco-giants/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/top-notes-from-the-san-francisco-giants-zips-projections-for-2025/ar-AA1zdOJZ?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=71ed9c45e3a84af7c9e7f544a89e53c6&ei=9
RE: SF Giants 2025 - BostonCard - 02-17-2025
I legit wonder what the confidence intervals around those projections are. Clearly they won't wind up exactly as projected (otherwise, why play the games), but for WAR, what is the interval in which the actual WAR comes in 95% of the time?
I would guess it's probably something like ±5 WAR for each player, but that is WAG.
BC
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 02-17-2025
This article says that the former pitching coach Bryan Price was old-school, not focused on analytics and likely missed a mechanical issue with Kyle Harrison, resulting in a velocity dip:
Ex-SF Giants pitching coach may be to blame for young pitcher's 2024 struggles
Makes you wonder if Price contributed to challenges with other pitchers. Webb did worse, so did Keaton Winn. Doval tanked. Tyler Rogers improved a bit, Taylor Rogers improved a lot, Ryan Walker improved a lot, so did Tristan Beck in limited appearances, so did Sean Hjelle. Luke Jackson backslide a lot. Overall, the team went from a 4.02 ERA to a 4.10 ERA, so a little worse, and from 16.5 WAR to 11.2 WAR, dropped from 50 to 36 saves, gave up fewer hits, 20 fewer HRs, but a LOT more walks and struck out a LOT more batters. Gave up 12 more earned runs. Went from 104 ERA+ to 95 ERA+ and from 3.92 FIP to 3.80 FIP, but from 1.253 WHIP to 1.301 WHIP. They lost Cobb, DeSclafani, Manaea, Wood, Stripling, Alexander, Junis, Brebbia, Llovera...Prior year, 12 pitchers started at least one game, 16 started at least one game in 2024...seems counterintuitive given that Kapler supposedly was promiscuous with assigning starts.
lex24 - lex24 - 02-18-2025
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1739837629' Wrote: 1739837629[/url]']
This article says that the former pitching coach Bryan Price was old-school, not focused on analytics and likely missed a mechanical issue with Kyle Harrison, resulting in a velocity dip:
Ex-SF Giants pitching coach may be to blame for young pitcher's 2024 struggles
Makes you wonder if Price contributed to challenges with other pitchers. Webb did worse, so did Keaton Winn. Doval tanked. Tyler Rogers improved a bit, Taylor Rogers improved a lot, Ryan Walker improved a lot, so did Tristan Beck in limited appearances, so did Sean Hjelle. Luke Jackson backslide a lot. Overall, the team went from a 4.02 ERA to a 4.10 ERA, so a little worse, and from 16.5 WAR to 11.2 WAR, dropped from 50 to 36 saves, gave up fewer hits, 20 fewer HRs, but a LOT more walks and struck out a LOT more batters. Gave up 12 more earned runs. Went from 104 ERA+ to 95 ERA+ and from 3.92 FIP to 3.80 FIP, but from 1.253 WHIP to 1.301 WHIP. They lost Cobb, DeSclafani, Manaea, Wood, Stripling, Alexander, Junis, Brebbia, Llovera...Prior year, 12 pitchers started at least one game, 16 started at least one game in 2024...seems counterintuitive given that Kapler supposedly was promiscuous with assigning starts.
Pryce wasn’t alone. They had a staff. Including JP Martinez, current pitching coach.
Harrison got hurt (ankle) And fatigued. Neither is surprising given that the Giants limited minor league innings for several years. Tough to not go more than 5 throughout the minors and then expect to get deeper in major league games. They are, thankfully, ending that practice.
The good news on Harrison is he learned how to pitch without his best stuff. That should help him moving forward.
As for Kapler - he’s where he belongs. A beach in Miami…..
RE: lex24 - Giants - 02-18-2025
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1739900919' Wrote: 1739900919[/url]']
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1739837629' Wrote: 1739837629[/url]']
This article says that the former pitching coach Bryan Price was old-school, not focused on analytics and likely missed a mechanical issue with Kyle Harrison, resulting in a velocity dip:
Ex-SF Giants pitching coach may be to blame for young pitcher's 2024 struggles
Makes you wonder if Price contributed to challenges with other pitchers. Webb did worse, so did Keaton Winn. Doval tanked. Tyler Rogers improved a bit, Taylor Rogers improved a lot, Ryan Walker improved a lot, so did Tristan Beck in limited appearances, so did Sean Hjelle. Luke Jackson backslide a lot. Overall, the team went from a 4.02 ERA to a 4.10 ERA, so a little worse, and from 16.5 WAR to 11.2 WAR, dropped from 50 to 36 saves, gave up fewer hits, 20 fewer HRs, but a LOT more walks and struck out a LOT more batters. Gave up 12 more earned runs. Went from 104 ERA+ to 95 ERA+ and from 3.92 FIP to 3.80 FIP, but from 1.253 WHIP to 1.301 WHIP. They lost Cobb, DeSclafani, Manaea, Wood, Stripling, Alexander, Junis, Brebbia, Llovera...Prior year, 12 pitchers started at least one game, 16 started at least one game in 2024...seems counterintuitive given that Kapler supposedly was promiscuous with assigning starts.
Pryce wasn’t alone. They had a staff. Including JP Martinez, current pitching coach.
Harrison got hurt (ankle) And fatigued. Neither is surprising given that the Giants limited minor league innings for several years. Tough to not go more than 5 throughout the minors and then expect to get deeper in major league games. They are, thankfully, ending that practice.
The good news on Harrison is he learned how to pitch without his best stuff. That should help him moving forward.
As for Kapler - he’s where he belongs. A beach in Miami…..
And Zaidi is where he belongs - in a non-decision making role with another club.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 02-20-2025
Ramos took Verlander deep in spring training:
https://youtu.be/lGRtNaQ1ZNE?t=20
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 02-21-2025
I think Tyler Fitzgerald is in for a big year. I think knowing that he can focus on second base instead of being expected to be a "super substitute" will allow him to rake.
He's got some really interesting splits:
- Did considerably better when he was at his core position last year (shortstop) than any other position:
Tyler Fitzgerald 2024 Batting Splits | Baseball-Reference.com
- He did best against the Blue Jays, Rockies and Dodgers of all opponents. .915 OPS against the Diamondbacks. Only in-division team he struggled against was the Padres.
- Eight of his worst 11 opponents were AL teams. Great.
- He stole 17 bases in 21 attempts
- He displayed better range at 2B vs. SS. His range at short was league average, at 2B, he had nearly 1/2 a chance per game more than league avg. and his Rtot at 2B (+1) is considerably better than his SS Rtot (-3)
- Had the second highest WAR of the position players at 2.8 (after Chapman's 7.1)
RE: SF Giants 2025 - lex24 - 02-23-2025
Eldridge-nice first impression. 450 foot HR in second AB. JT Snow is going to be in camp as a guest instructor. I’d hire him full time as a so-called roving instructor. He’d roam to wherever Eldridge is playing. He never played first base prior to last year. 18 errors.
As a two way player he mostly DH’d when he didn’t pitch. It’s going to take some time for him to be a viable defender. Question will be - if he tears it up in Sac, but isn’t ready defensively, do they call him up and have him DH? Thats not a long term ‘solution”. But he could continue working on his defense before and between games.
I’m hoping he forces the issue.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - cardcrimson - 02-23-2025
(02-23-2025, 08:31 AM)lex24 Wrote: Eldridge-nice first impression. 450 foot HR in second AB. JT Snow is going to be in camp as a guest instructor. I’d hire him full time as a so-called roving instructor. He’d roam to wherever Eldridge is playing. He never played first base prior to last year. 18 errors.Eldridge was a two way player? Didn't see that in his stats from last year. . . .
As a two way player he mostly DH’d when he didn’t pitch. It’s going to take some time for him to be a viable defender. Question will be - if he tears it up in Sac, but isn’t ready defensively, do they call him up and have him DH? Thats not a long term ‘solution”. But he could continue working on his defense before and between games.
I’m hoping he forces the issue.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 02-23-2025
(02-23-2025, 09:48 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:(02-23-2025, 08:31 AM)lex24 Wrote: Eldridge-nice first impression. 450 foot HR in second AB. JT Snow is going to be in camp as a guest instructor. I’d hire him full time as a so-called roving instructor. He’d roam to wherever Eldridge is playing. He never played first base prior to last year. 18 errors.Eldridge was a two way player? Didn't see that in his stats from last year. . . .
As a two way player he mostly DH’d when he didn’t pitch. It’s going to take some time for him to be a viable defender. Question will be - if he tears it up in Sac, but isn’t ready defensively, do they call him up and have him DH? Thats not a long term ‘solution”. But he could continue working on his defense before and between games.
I’m hoping he forces the issue.
Sort of. He was the 12th overall rated prospect and the #1 rated first baseman nationally. Here's the description: "Easy velocity up to 95 mph with big sinking life; high ceiling physical projection, repeats delivery well and fills the zone, also big left-handed power."
He did pretty well at AA (.270/.325/.460/.785) but faltered at AAA (.258/.343/.258/.601). No big deal, he was 19 years old. And the HR he had was off of a 91.5 mph fastball...and the pitcher he hit it off of (Matt Festa) gave up two home runs, three hits and three earned runs in one inning (McCray hit a home run off of him, too). Still, Festa was an MLB pitcher for five years with a 4.60 career ERA. Incidentally, Sam Huff, potential backup catcher also hit a 422 foot home run to center. And SF pitchers gave up just four hits.
Eldridge needs a lot of work at 1B. At least he's better this year (.977 field%) versus last year (.929 field%). And both his fielding percentage and range factor improved at AAA (.983 and 8.27). JT has six gold gloves, a career .995 fielding percentage and accepted a full chance and a half more per game than Eldridge did in the minors. BTW, MLB fielding average for first basemen is .993.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - lex24 - 02-25-2025
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1740331701' Wrote: 1740331701[/url]']
cardcrimson dateline='[url=tel:1740329299' Wrote: 1740329299[/url]']
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1740324710' Wrote: 1740324710[/url]']Eldridge was a two way player? Didn't see that in his stats from last year. . . .
Eldridge-nice first impression. 450 foot HR in second AB. JT Snow is going to be in camp as a guest instructor. I’d hire him full time as a so-called roving instructor. He’d roam to wherever Eldridge is playing. He never played first base prior to last year. 18 errors.
As a two way player he mostly DH’d when he didn’t pitch. It’s going to take some time for him to be a viable defender. Question will be - if he tears it up in Sac, but isn’t ready defensively, do they call him up and have him DH? Thats not a long term ‘solution”. But he could continue working on his defense before and between games.
I’m hoping he forces the issue.
Sort of. He was the 12th overall rated prospect and the #1 rated first baseman nationally. Here's the description: "Easy velocity up to 95 mph with big sinking life; high ceiling physical projection, repeats delivery well and fills the zone, also big left-handed power."
He did pretty well at AA (.270/.325/.460/.785) but faltered at AAA (.258/.343/.258/.601). No big deal, he was 19 years old. And the HR he had was off of a 91.5 mph fastball...and the pitcher he hit it off of (Matt Festa) gave up two home runs, three hits and three earned runs in one inning (McCray hit a home run off of him, too). Still, Festa was an MLB pitcher for five years with a 4.60 career ERA. Incidentally, Sam Huff, potential backup catcher also hit a 422 foot home run to center. And SF pitchers gave up just four hits.
Eldridge needs a lot of work at 1B. At least he's better this year (.977 field%) versus last year (.929 field%). And both his fielding percentage and range factor improved at AAA (.983 and 8.27). JT has six gold gloves, a career .995 fielding percentage and accepted a full chance and a half more per game than Eldridge did in the minors. BTW, MLB fielding average for first basemen is .993.
Eldridge and Reggie Crawford were both drafted as two way players. Giants fairly quickly went with Eldridge as a hitter, Crawford a pitcher. Unfortunately Crawford had surgery and won’t pitch until 26.
I’m not sure what fielding numbers you’re referring to when you say “last year” and “this year” for Eldridge. The Giants in ‘23, started out with him in right field. 26 games. That didn’t work, so they shifted him to first base in ‘24, which was his first full year in the system. And his first time playing the position. He made 18 errors. Which anyway you slice it is not good.
But before being drafted by the Giants, he pitched and DH’d. EDIT: He also played some first base according to reports I looked at. But I think it was limited. His draft rating was based on him projecting to play first. I mean, that’s the logical place to play a 6’7 guy. So it’s not surprising that’s it’s going take him some time to learn to play the position.