Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - Printable Version
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Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - washingtonismoney - 12-20-2011
(12-20-2011, 01:30 PM)Yvonne link Wrote:They didn't get to be one of the top teams in the nation in turnover ratio for nothing. There's some bluster in the OSU fans' comments, but it's not all unfounded.
No. But they did have an anomalous performance on fumble recoveries--well over 50%.
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - washingtonismoney - 12-20-2011
(12-20-2011, 01:30 PM)Yvonne link Wrote:They didn't get to be one of the top teams in the nation in turnover ratio for nothing. There's some bluster in the OSU fans' comments, but it's not all unfounded.
No. But they did have an anomalous performance on fumble recoveries--well over 50%.
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - OutsiderFan - 12-20-2011
(12-20-2011, 12:48 PM)terry link Wrote:[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=5180.msg37728#msg37728 date=1324393585]
What does Oregon have that other teams haven't?Â
5. Ability to make Andrew Luck throw interceptions
Luck threw 2 interceptions against Oregon. One was a play where an Oregon player was knocked to the ground, but just as Luck threw the ball, the Oregon player got up and was able to step in front of the receiver. That's on Luck. It's not a great defensive strategy, unless Oregon has a strategy of falling down and then waiting to hop up and intercept the ball. Luck's other interception was a perfect pass that squarely hit his receiver, but the ball bounced off the receiver and was caught by a surprised defender. That's not a great defensive strategy either, unless Oregon's strategy is to let opposing receivers get open and hope they deflect perfect passes to the defenders.
Oklahoma State is welcome to try either of those strategies. I hope they do.
At least 4 of Luck's 9 interceptions came when a Stanford receiver deflected a pass that hit him squarely in the hands, or fell down as the ball was on its way.
[/quote]
Luck also threw two picks against Oregon in 2010. No team has forced Luck to throw more than one pick in a game other than Oregon, to my recollection. And if anyone else has, Oregon is the only team that beat Stanford as a result.
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - OutsiderFan - 12-20-2011
(12-20-2011, 12:48 PM)terry link Wrote:[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=5180.msg37728#msg37728 date=1324393585]
What does Oregon have that other teams haven't?Â
5. Ability to make Andrew Luck throw interceptions
Luck threw 2 interceptions against Oregon. One was a play where an Oregon player was knocked to the ground, but just as Luck threw the ball, the Oregon player got up and was able to step in front of the receiver. That's on Luck. It's not a great defensive strategy, unless Oregon has a strategy of falling down and then waiting to hop up and intercept the ball. Luck's other interception was a perfect pass that squarely hit his receiver, but the ball bounced off the receiver and was caught by a surprised defender. That's not a great defensive strategy either, unless Oregon's strategy is to let opposing receivers get open and hope they deflect perfect passes to the defenders.
Oklahoma State is welcome to try either of those strategies. I hope they do.
At least 4 of Luck's 9 interceptions came when a Stanford receiver deflected a pass that hit him squarely in the hands, or fell down as the ball was on its way.
[/quote]
Luck also threw two picks against Oregon in 2010. No team has forced Luck to throw more than one pick in a game other than Oregon, to my recollection. And if anyone else has, Oregon is the only team that beat Stanford as a result.
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - GulfCoastPoke - 12-20-2011
All I am saying is that everyone bags on our defense, but if there is one thing we do well, it is take the ball away, we are #2 in the nation in turnover margin. I'm not sitting here saying that we're going to kill y'all or anything, in fact I've been quite fair in my assesment while obviously stating my opinions and perceived strengths of OSU's team. I think your TE's and running game are going to create problems for us, and I'm glad our defensive coaches have a long time to prepare for your multi-faceted offense. I do think we'll win, but honestly, each of you probably think that the Cardinal will win.Â
Regarding Oregon. There are things that OSU does which are similar to Oregon, but OSU is a completely different team altogether, and our team speed is likely biggest similarity. Oregon is the most talented team you have faced the in the last two seasons, and OSU is on par with them talent wise, from what I can tell.
Regarding @terry's post about the interceptions. A high caliber qb having a ball tipped at the line of scrimmage or in the secondary and being intercepted yields the same result as a lesser QB staring down his receiver and getting picked. Tipped balls are how we lost in 2OT to ISU. Â
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - GulfCoastPoke - 12-20-2011
All I am saying is that everyone bags on our defense, but if there is one thing we do well, it is take the ball away, we are #2 in the nation in turnover margin. I'm not sitting here saying that we're going to kill y'all or anything, in fact I've been quite fair in my assesment while obviously stating my opinions and perceived strengths of OSU's team. I think your TE's and running game are going to create problems for us, and I'm glad our defensive coaches have a long time to prepare for your multi-faceted offense. I do think we'll win, but honestly, each of you probably think that the Cardinal will win.Â
Regarding Oregon. There are things that OSU does which are similar to Oregon, but OSU is a completely different team altogether, and our team speed is likely biggest similarity. Oregon is the most talented team you have faced the in the last two seasons, and OSU is on par with them talent wise, from what I can tell.
Regarding @terry's post about the interceptions. A high caliber qb having a ball tipped at the line of scrimmage or in the secondary and being intercepted yields the same result as a lesser QB staring down his receiver and getting picked. Tipped balls are how we lost in 2OT to ISU. Â
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - washingtonismoney - 12-20-2011
(12-20-2011, 02:02 PM)GulfCoastPoke link Wrote:Regarding @terry's post about the interceptions. A high caliber qb having a ball tipped at the line of scrimmage or in the secondary and being intercepted yields the same result as a lesser QB staring down his receiver and getting picked. Tipped balls are how we lost in 2OT to ISU.Â
It yields the same result, but that's the wrong way to look at it for our purposes. We're interested in forecasting--and tipped balls yielding picks is much more random than staring down receivers and throwing picks. I think your Cyclones example kind of proves the point, actually: they had a third of their season's picks just in that game.
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - washingtonismoney - 12-20-2011
(12-20-2011, 02:02 PM)GulfCoastPoke link Wrote:Regarding @terry's post about the interceptions. A high caliber qb having a ball tipped at the line of scrimmage or in the secondary and being intercepted yields the same result as a lesser QB staring down his receiver and getting picked. Tipped balls are how we lost in 2OT to ISU.Â
It yields the same result, but that's the wrong way to look at it for our purposes. We're interested in forecasting--and tipped balls yielding picks is much more random than staring down receivers and throwing picks. I think your Cyclones example kind of proves the point, actually: they had a third of their season's picks just in that game.
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - terry - 12-20-2011
(12-20-2011, 02:02 PM)GulfCoastPoke link Wrote:Regarding @terry's post about the interceptions. A high caliber qb having a ball tipped at the line of scrimmage or in the secondary and being intercepted yields the same result as a lesser QB staring down his receiver and getting picked. Tipped balls are how we lost in 2OT to ISU.Â
I'm not talking about passes that were tipped by the defense and intercepted. I'm talking about perfect passes by Luck that hit his receivers squarely in the hands, but were dropped by the receivers and ended up bouncing to a defender. That happened to Luck three times this year. On another interception, Luck threw a good pass, but his receiver fell down just after Luck threw the ball, and the ball went to a defender who was behind the receiver. Those aren't plays that the defense created. The defense didn't disrupt anything or tip anything. A defense cannot plan or practice those plays. Sure, it could happen again, but if it does, it won't be because of anything Oklahoma State does.
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - terry - 12-20-2011
(12-20-2011, 02:02 PM)GulfCoastPoke link Wrote:Regarding @terry's post about the interceptions. A high caliber qb having a ball tipped at the line of scrimmage or in the secondary and being intercepted yields the same result as a lesser QB staring down his receiver and getting picked. Tipped balls are how we lost in 2OT to ISU.Â
I'm not talking about passes that were tipped by the defense and intercepted. I'm talking about perfect passes by Luck that hit his receivers squarely in the hands, but were dropped by the receivers and ended up bouncing to a defender. That happened to Luck three times this year. On another interception, Luck threw a good pass, but his receiver fell down just after Luck threw the ball, and the ball went to a defender who was behind the receiver. Those aren't plays that the defense created. The defense didn't disrupt anything or tip anything. A defense cannot plan or practice those plays. Sure, it could happen again, but if it does, it won't be because of anything Oklahoma State does.
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - GulfCoastPoke - 12-20-2011
(12-20-2011, 02:42 PM)terry link Wrote:I'm not talking about passes that were tipped by the defense and intercepted. I'm talking about perfect passes by Luck that hit his receivers squarely in the hands, but were dropped by the receivers and ended up bouncing to a defender. That happened to Luck three times this year. On another interception, Luck threw a good pass, but his receiver fell down just after Luck threw the ball, and the ball went to a defender who was behind the receiver. Those aren't plays that the defense created. The defense didn't disrupt anything or tip anything. A defense cannot plan or practice those plays. Sure, it could happen again, but if it does, it won't be because of anything Oklahoma State does.
Well, if your receivers are having that much trouble hanging onto the ball when defense wasn't a factor, then they're in trouble against our secondary ;D
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - GulfCoastPoke - 12-20-2011
(12-20-2011, 02:42 PM)terry link Wrote:I'm not talking about passes that were tipped by the defense and intercepted. I'm talking about perfect passes by Luck that hit his receivers squarely in the hands, but were dropped by the receivers and ended up bouncing to a defender. That happened to Luck three times this year. On another interception, Luck threw a good pass, but his receiver fell down just after Luck threw the ball, and the ball went to a defender who was behind the receiver. Those aren't plays that the defense created. The defense didn't disrupt anything or tip anything. A defense cannot plan or practice those plays. Sure, it could happen again, but if it does, it won't be because of anything Oklahoma State does.
Well, if your receivers are having that much trouble hanging onto the ball when defense wasn't a factor, then they're in trouble against our secondary ;D
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - slide - 12-20-2011
GCP -- may you had too much coffee by this post (after being short of Joe on Christian Littlehead)? I would hate to see how confident you'd be in the OkState pass defense if they were even a top 100 pass defense team. :)
http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/football/ncaaf/stats/team-passing-defense?loc=interstitialskip
and it looks like OkState took advantage of some bad pass defenses this year. check the following (rank out of 120 teams).Â
ULLafayette #92
Arizona #119
Tulsa #118
aTm #113
Kansas #108
Texas #47
Missouri #91
Baylor #112
Kansas State #104
Texas Tech #65
Iowa State #73
Oklahoma #83
Stanford checks in at #78 so OkState should be comfortable.
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - slide - 12-20-2011
GCP -- may you had too much coffee by this post (after being short of Joe on Christian Littlehead)? I would hate to see how confident you'd be in the OkState pass defense if they were even a top 100 pass defense team. :)
http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/football/ncaaf/stats/team-passing-defense?loc=interstitialskip
and it looks like OkState took advantage of some bad pass defenses this year. check the following (rank out of 120 teams).Â
ULLafayette #92
Arizona #119
Tulsa #118
aTm #113
Kansas #108
Texas #47
Missouri #91
Baylor #112
Kansas State #104
Texas Tech #65
Iowa State #73
Oklahoma #83
Stanford checks in at #78 so OkState should be comfortable.
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - Griffins78 - 12-20-2011
A good, quick, athletic defensive backfield is a potential match-up problem for us. There is less room for error - be it receivers slipping, dropped passes, tipped passes, or just bad passes. And turnovers are killers. Most games are won/lost in the turnover battle. The other impact is that it gives the DL more time to put pressure on the QB. But if we establish our running game - which we have in every game - then the defensive backfield/LBs are going to spend a lot of the game worried about the run and the play-action pass becomes much effective - especially against a quick reacting, play the run-first defensive backfield/LBs.
On the flip-side. A strong pass rush can cover up shortcomings in the defensive backfield. And a stout defense against the run can make the offense one dimensional and give the DL the ability to be much more aggressive in the pass rush.
That's why I think the running game - for both teams is going to be important.
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - Griffins78 - 12-20-2011
A good, quick, athletic defensive backfield is a potential match-up problem for us. There is less room for error - be it receivers slipping, dropped passes, tipped passes, or just bad passes. And turnovers are killers. Most games are won/lost in the turnover battle. The other impact is that it gives the DL more time to put pressure on the QB. But if we establish our running game - which we have in every game - then the defensive backfield/LBs are going to spend a lot of the game worried about the run and the play-action pass becomes much effective - especially against a quick reacting, play the run-first defensive backfield/LBs.
On the flip-side. A strong pass rush can cover up shortcomings in the defensive backfield. And a stout defense against the run can make the offense one dimensional and give the DL the ability to be much more aggressive in the pass rush.
That's why I think the running game - for both teams is going to be important.
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - GulfCoastPoke - 12-20-2011
(12-20-2011, 03:41 PM)slide link Wrote:GCP -- may you had too much coffee by this post (after being short of Joe on Christian Littlehead)? I would hate to see how confident you'd be in the OkState pass defense if they were even a top 100 pass defense team. :)
http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/football/ncaaf/stats/team-passing-defense?loc=interstitialskip
and it looks like OkState took advantage of some bad pass defenses this year. check the following (rank out of 120 teams).Â
ULLafayette #92
Arizona #119
Tulsa #118
aTm #113
Kansas #108
Texas #47
Missouri #91
Baylor #112
Kansas State #104
Texas Tech #65
Iowa State #73
Oklahoma #83
Stanford checks in at #78 so OkState should be comfortable.
Hahahah! Yeah, I'll have to be sure to maintain caffeine in my system to keep up with you Stanford folks. :)
Numbers don't lie....or do they? I'm not saying we're an amazing D, but I will say we are underrated, so lets do some statistical analysis.Â
First off, we've had a number of blowouts this year where we pull our starters out and put our 2's and 3's in there. It is great for our program all around but bad for stats. For example, we were beating Baylor, and their Voldemort winner, 49-3 at the end of the 3rd, Kansas 56-0 at half, and Tech 49-0 at half. Additionally, when teams are behind they throw the ball to try and catch up, creating more passing yards against us. Secondly, our defense is averaging 84 snaps per game, a full 20 more than LSU or Bama, due to our fast paced offense. Thirdly, we do a "bend don't break" defense. We are 9th in the country in red zone defense and 2nd in the country in turnover margin (despite our offenses 22 turnovers), and we've forced 42 turnovers in 12 games....by far the most in the country.
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - GulfCoastPoke - 12-20-2011
(12-20-2011, 03:41 PM)slide link Wrote:GCP -- may you had too much coffee by this post (after being short of Joe on Christian Littlehead)? I would hate to see how confident you'd be in the OkState pass defense if they were even a top 100 pass defense team. :)
http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/football/ncaaf/stats/team-passing-defense?loc=interstitialskip
and it looks like OkState took advantage of some bad pass defenses this year. check the following (rank out of 120 teams).Â
ULLafayette #92
Arizona #119
Tulsa #118
aTm #113
Kansas #108
Texas #47
Missouri #91
Baylor #112
Kansas State #104
Texas Tech #65
Iowa State #73
Oklahoma #83
Stanford checks in at #78 so OkState should be comfortable.
Hahahah! Yeah, I'll have to be sure to maintain caffeine in my system to keep up with you Stanford folks. :)
Numbers don't lie....or do they? I'm not saying we're an amazing D, but I will say we are underrated, so lets do some statistical analysis.Â
First off, we've had a number of blowouts this year where we pull our starters out and put our 2's and 3's in there. It is great for our program all around but bad for stats. For example, we were beating Baylor, and their Voldemort winner, 49-3 at the end of the 3rd, Kansas 56-0 at half, and Tech 49-0 at half. Additionally, when teams are behind they throw the ball to try and catch up, creating more passing yards against us. Secondly, our defense is averaging 84 snaps per game, a full 20 more than LSU or Bama, due to our fast paced offense. Thirdly, we do a "bend don't break" defense. We are 9th in the country in red zone defense and 2nd in the country in turnover margin (despite our offenses 22 turnovers), and we've forced 42 turnovers in 12 games....by far the most in the country.
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - Pokefan20 - 12-21-2011
I may come of as a big homer in my posts but I am an OSU fan. I'm just trying to give each side a homer fan. We have me and Stanford has Terry. Do i believe my statements? For the most part yes but i was also looking for reactions. Whats the point of posting if i can't get a little fun out of it ;)
Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State: Thoughts/Predictions - Pokefan20 - 12-21-2011
I may come of as a big homer in my posts but I am an OSU fan. I'm just trying to give each side a homer fan. We have me and Stanford has Terry. Do i believe my statements? For the most part yes but i was also looking for reactions. Whats the point of posting if i can't get a little fun out of it ;)