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Re: Going pro/coming back thread - DC 86 - 01-10-2018

(01-10-2018, 01:02 PM)qwerty49 link Wrote:I share your concerns.  But I'd also like to know a bit more about how players were "graded out" in terms of process and data.

Schultz's blocking doesn't show up on any stats, does it?

Blocking Efficiency is part of what comprises the PFF grades for tight ends.

Re: Going pro/coming back thread - TreesAndBirds - 01-10-2018

What is the logic behind a student athlete not being able to stop out for a quarter, try out for the NFL, and if he doesnt get drafted, return to college football? Im assuming he is never paid, no NFL team is disadvantaged because they didnt draft him, etc. I understand you dont want Josh Rosen going back to Ucla because he doesnt like that the Browns drafted him, but Im talking about guys who arent drafted, have college eligibility left, and their college team wants them....and if they arent drafted might just benefit from either more college football experience or a continuing scholarship to continue their education? Is it because college coaches dont want 3 months of uncertainty as to who is on the team? I used to think recruiting was the answer (how many open slots do you have) but now recruiting is moved up.

Re: Going pro/coming back thread - washingtonismoney - 01-10-2018

(01-10-2018, 01:43 PM)TreesAndBirds link Wrote:What is the logic behind a student athlete not being able to stop out for a quarter, try out for the NFL, and if he doesnt get drafted, return to college football? Im assuming he is never paid, no NFL team is disadvantaged because they didnt draft him, etc. I understand you dont want Josh Rosen going back to Ucla because he doesnt like that the Browns drafted him, but Im talking about guys who arent drafted, have college eligibility left, and their college team wants them....and if they arent drafted might just benefit from either more college football experience or a continuing scholarship to continue their education? Is it because college coaches dont want 3 months of uncertainty as to who is on the team? I used to think recruiting was the answer (how many open slots do you have) but now recruiting is moved up.

I mean, baseball gets along fine with this sort of system -- basically all draft-eligible players are thrown into the draft, and if they like where they're picked, they sign. If not, they wait.

Re: Going pro/coming back thread - needle - 01-10-2018

Of the players who have declared thus far, I don't think any would have improved their draft stock with one more year of playing at Stanford...except for Meeks. I hope it works out for them all.

Re: Going pro/coming back thread - CTcard - 01-10-2018

(01-10-2018, 01:02 PM)qwerty49 link Wrote:I share your concerns.  But I'd also like to know a bit more about how players were "graded out" in terms of process and data.

Pro Football Focus is apparently owned by the folks who own Scout, so basing evaluation upon PFF reports has become the thing over on the Scout sites. Abeytia seems to have completely bought into their omniscience.

The last time I looked closely, there were a lot of things on PFF that looked highly questionable to me. That included some evaluations that seemed simply inane (highly graded guys who were buried on their own depth charts) and other cases where I simply didn't agree with their evaluations.

I certainly do not agree with their grade that Schultz was the best TE in the Pac 12 in 2016 but only about 12th in 2017 (I cannot find the reference from Abteytia right now - but it was certainly very close to the bottom of Pac 12 TEs). That combination not only seems illogical, but not what I saw. However, I am also not convinced he will be drafted very highly.

I also fear Meeks may not be drafted all that highly, and unlike Schultz he hasn't been around four years - but he has raw talent and that tends to go a long way in the draft.
[And just because I am amused, while Stanford has won 31 games since Meeks arrived, and he may have started 33, Stanford did not go 31-2 in game Meeks started which is how I first interpreted his comment in his letter. But hey, that's my reading comprehension.] 

But it does seem likely that all four will be drafted. Less clear that any of the guys who have used up their eligibility will be.

Re: Going pro/coming back thread - Langdude - 01-10-2018

Meeks is good, but I thought Alex Carter was better. I think Reid and Meeks will not get drafted that high. Round 3 or 4? Both of them have family connections in the NFL; seems they both just want to get into the NFL ASAP, no matter where they are drafted or how much money they'll get. Perhaps, with those family connections, they realize their football playing lives are not that long, so they want to take the next step as soon as they can. They can sense the clock is ticking, especially with heightened concern about encephalopathy.

-m.

Re: Going pro/coming back thread - CrazedZooChimp - 01-10-2018

(01-10-2018, 01:45 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:[quote author=TreesAndBirds link=topic=18429.msg220938#msg220938 date=1515616991]
What is the logic behind a student athlete not being able to stop out for a quarter, try out for the NFL, and if he doesnt get drafted, return to college football? Im assuming he is never paid, no NFL team is disadvantaged because they didnt draft him, etc. I understand you dont want Josh Rosen going back to Ucla because he doesnt like that the Browns drafted him, but Im talking about guys who arent drafted, have college eligibility left, and their college team wants them....and if they arent drafted might just benefit from either more college football experience or a continuing scholarship to continue their education? Is it because college coaches dont want 3 months of uncertainty as to who is on the team? I used to think recruiting was the answer (how many open slots do you have) but now recruiting is moved up.

I mean, baseball gets along fine with this sort of system -- basically all draft-eligible players are thrown into the draft, and if they like where they're picked, they sign. If not, they wait.
[/quote]

Hockey is similar. I don't understand why football can't/doesn't do that. I assume it's somehow in the CBA for the NFL (maybe requires having an agent or something to be in the draft?).

Re: Going pro/coming back thread - DC 86 - 01-10-2018

(01-10-2018, 03:28 PM)Langdude link Wrote:Meeks is good, but I thought Alex Carter was better. I think Reid and Meeks will not get drafted that high. Round 3 or 4? Both of them have family connections in the NFL; seems they both just want to get into the NFL ASAP, no matter where they are drafted or how much money they'll get. Perhaps, with those family connections, they realize their football playing lives lives are not that long, so they want to take the next step as soon as they can. They can sense the clock is ticking, especially with heightened concern about encephalopathy.

-m.

This is the key point and why it is logical (from a purely financial standpoint) for almost all players to turn pro as long as they are confident that they will be drafted. Players really only have a certain number of snaps in them before their bodies break down or they suffer a serious injury. An extra year of college football likely means a shorter NFL career (or no NFL career in case of injury), moreover NFL teams are weighing tread on the tires as they grade underclassmen compared to upperclassmen. There are cases where a player may make a major jump in draft position which justifies staying in school, e.g. their playing time was impacted by having star players ahead of them on the depth chart, or they were coming off an injury which impacted performance, but in general the downside of returning outweighs the upside.

Re: Going pro/coming back thread - donkey687 - 01-10-2018

Not sure that I agree that downside of returning is greater than the upside.  The NFL pay scale for rookies is almost logarithmic with major jumps in contract value as you approach first round and second round.  How many of the seniors drafted in the first two rounds would have been drafted as highly the prior year had they come out early? A lot of them made a lot of money their senior year in improving their draft position.

Re: Going pro/coming back thread - washingtonismoney - 01-10-2018

The money you make by moving up in the draft is pretty insignificant in of itself. It’s the second contract that’s where the money is. And the faster you get to that, the more money you get.

Re: Going pro/coming back thread - TreesAndBirds - 01-10-2018

Right, if there is a second contract. Wonder what percentage of draftees get a second contract. First round probably very high. Fifth round....?

Everyone of course thinks they will be a star or at least a regular. But wonder how many guys are destined to be rookie contract only guys, and are giving up a year at Stanford or wherever to just get to the end of their rookie contract a year earlier.

I dont know the numbers, but I hope David Shaw does when counseling guys.

And there are obviously other factors, not the least might be how bad you/your family needs money, although I havent seen that act as a disincentive ( maybe with Andrew, not with CMac or J. rosen)

Re: Going pro/coming back thread - DC 86 - 01-10-2018

(01-10-2018, 05:21 PM)donkey687 link Wrote:Not sure that I agree that downside of returning is greater than the upside.  The NFL pay scale for rookies is almost logarithmic with major jumps in contract value as you approach first round and second round.  How many of the seniors drafted in the first two rounds would have been drafted as highly the prior year had they come out early? A lot of them made a lot of money their senior year in improving their draft position.

Looking at the 2017 draft which was dominated by underclassmen, there were 12 seniors drafted in the first round, of whom three still had eligibility.

Corey Davis (WR): 78-1408 with 15 TD as a sophomore, 90-1436 with 12 TD as a junior, decided to return for his senior season and recorded 97-1500 with 19 TD. Perhaps improved his stock marginally but at the risk of injury and performance decline, as well as a year of wear and tear which could reduce the length of his NFL career.

Mike Williams (WR): broke a bone in his neck as a junior and missed almost the entire season so he was compelled to return for his senior year. Was still an early entrant since he had been issued a medical redshirt.

Hasson Reddick (DE): a walk on who didn't receive a scholarship until his senior year and then had a monster year and declared for the draft. Actually was an early entrant since he had redshirted.

Jonathan Allen (DL): as a junior he recorded 12 sacks, 14.5 TFL and 2 forced fumbles, decided to come back for his senior year, recorded 10.5 sacks, 16 TFL and 0 forced fumbles. Two weeks before the combine had surgery on both shoulders which resulted in dropping to 17th overall, thus probably would have been drafted higher in 2016.

O.J. Howard (TE): 38-602-2 TD as a junior, 45-595-3 TD as a senior. Probably didn't change draft stock significantly.

Jarrad Davis (LB): 94 tackles, 11 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble as a junior. 60 tackles, 6 TFL, 0 interceptions, 0 forced fumbles as a senior when he missed four games due to injury. Hurt his draft stock by returning.

Evan Engram (TE): 38-662-2 as a sophomore, 38-464-2 as a junior, 65-926-8 as a senior. Helped his draft stock by returning for his senior year after a disappointing junior year in which his ypc dropped from 17.2 to 12.2.

Takkarist McKinley (DE): only had six career sacks heading into his senior season so declaring for the draft wasn't a realistic option as a junior, then had a big senior season (10 sacks and 18 TFL).

TreDavious White (CB): All-SEC second team as a junior and projected as a late first round pick, All-SEC first team as a senior and drafted #27 overall. Possibly improved his draft position marginally or not at all.

Taco Charlton (DE): 5.5 sacks and 8.5 TFL as a junior, 10 sacks and 13.5 TFL as a senior, definitely improved his draft stock.

Reuben Foster (ILB): 73 tackles (48 solo) and 8 TFL as a junior, 115 tackles (60 solo) and 13 TFL as a senior. However, as a senior he suffered a torn rotator cuff and off field difficulties which dropped him to #31 overall. As a result it's not clear if returning helped him draft-wise or not despite his superlative season.

Ryan Ramczyk (T): played two years in division III and then had to sit his junior year when he transferred to Wisconsin, so coming out as a junior was not an option. Still have a year of remaining eligibility when he declared for the draft.

Summary:

Williams, Reddick, McKinley and Ramczyk weren't draftable after their junior years due to either injury or limited performance.

C. Davis, Howard and White didn't appear to materially change their grades as seniors.

Allen (definitely) and Foster (possibly) were drafted lower than they would have been as juniors due to injuries incurred as seniors.

J. Davis could have been drafted as a junior, definitely lowered his stock by returning to school.

Engram and Charlton could have been drafted as juniors, definitely raised their stock by returning to school.

There are certainly exceptions such as Engram and Charlton, but when considering the finite number of snaps in the human body, time value of money and injury risk I still maintain that in general it's financially prudent to declare for the draft as a junior. Of course it depends on the individual, but there just aren't many players who play themselves into the top of the draft by returning for their senior seasons.





Re: Going pro/coming back thread - JustAnotherFan - 01-10-2018

(01-10-2018, 05:52 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:The money you make by moving up in the draft is pretty insignificant in of itself. It’s the second contract that’s where the money is. And the faster you get to that, the more money you get.

Not exactly. The money you make by moving up in the first two rounds is substantial. By the end of the second round it becomes relatively insignificant. Here's an article with a great graphic that illustrates this point: http://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-draft-contract-values-2017-4.



Re: Going pro/coming back thread - Phogge - 01-10-2018

Love set the record for plus 50 yard runs and may have set some kind of average gain record this past season. If he stays he gambles on improving his stats, perhaps gets more involved in the passing offense and maybe prove that he is durable. He also gambles on being injured, maybe more seriously than the ankle. He also loses some bonus money and a paycheck if he makes a roster.

In my perfect world he comes back and gives the finger to the NFL and becomes a doctor and is never concussed out of his mind or is closelined into incoherency by Luke Kuechley. He doesn't even need to play college football anymore. His mind and his sanity is too important. Plus we have the ability to watch all those 50 yard runs for the rest of our lives.

Re: Going pro/coming back thread - akiddoc - 01-11-2018

Skipping the NFL would be awesome. But it won't happen with Love.

Re: Going pro/coming back thread - qwerty49 - 01-11-2018

+1 

So well said!

(01-10-2018, 07:53 PM)Phogge link Wrote:Love set the record for plus 50 yard runs and may have set some kind of average gain record this past season. If he stays he gambles on improving his stats, perhaps gets more involved in the passing offense and maybe prove that he is durable. He also gambles on being injured, maybe more seriously than the ankle. He also loses some bonus money and a paycheck if he makes a roster.

In my perfect world he comes back and gives the finger to the NFL and becomes a doctor and is never concussed out of his mind or is closelined into incoherency by Luke Kuechley. He doesn't even need to play college football anymore. His mind and his sanity is too important. Plus we have the ability to watch all those 50 yard runs for the rest of our lives.


Re: Going pro/coming back thread - JohnR34231 - 01-11-2018

(01-10-2018, 07:53 PM)Phogge link Wrote:Love set the record for plus 50 yard runs and may have set some kind of average gain record this past season. If he stays he gambles on improving his stats, perhaps gets more involved in the passing offense and maybe prove that he is durable. He also gambles on being injured, maybe more seriously than the ankle. He also loses some bonus money and a paycheck if he makes a roster.

In my perfect world he comes back and gives the finger to the NFL and becomes a doctor and is never concussed out of his mind or is closelined into incoherency by Luke Kuechley. He doesn't even need to play college football anymore. His mind and his sanity is too important. Plus we have the ability to watch all those 50 yard runs for the rest of our lives.

Or he just plays in the NFL for a couple of years to minimize the risk of serious injury and has medical school financed and a nice little nest egg to start out with.

Re: Going pro/coming back thread - MustardtheBallCarrier - 01-11-2018

The interesting thing to me is that if Love comes back, to best help the team he would likely be used in the same role he was last season.  He played that role about as well as one could.  What more could he show running the ball?  Maybe adding weight and showing durability.

Is Shaw going to play Love on passing downs when there are much better pass blocking RB on the team?  Love can improve his technique but his size is what it is.  Is Shaw going to put Love in the slot or out wide when there are much better receiving threats on the team?  Is Shaw going to have Love return kicks when there are better choices from a ball security standpoint and those touches risk injury to the most critical offensive player?

C-Mac showed this tremendous versatility from the beginning of his Freshman year.  C-Mac was the best option at RB, WR, KR and PR from the minute he first set foot on the field at Stanford.  Love needs to develop and improve in all these key areas to improve his draft position.  But the team needs to win--season can't become a skills development showcase for one player.

Such a personal decision and will be very interesting.



Re: Going pro/coming back thread - BostonCard - 01-11-2018

Well, if he does chose to come back, Love has all of spring and summer to work on these facets of his game.

On passing third downs, we can use two back sets with one back being held in for pass protection and Love being used to run (for example, in a draw when the situation calls for it), as a decoy, or being released into the flat as a checkdown passing target.  Then again, Scarlett showed he could be used in that role against TCU, but again, it is good to have options.

Love has been back for kickoffs in past years.

BC

Re: Going pro/coming back thread - CTcard - 01-11-2018

(01-11-2018, 01:01 PM)MustardtheBallCarrier link Wrote:The interesting thing to me is that if Love comes back, to best help the team he would likely be used in the same role he was last season.  He played that role about as well as one could.  What more could he show running the ball?  Maybe adding weight and showing durability.

Is Shaw going to play Love on passing downs when there are much better pass blocking RB on the team?  Love can improve his technique but his size is what it is.  Is Shaw going to put Love in the slot or out wide when there are much better receiving threats on the team?  Is Shaw going to have Love return kicks when there are better choices from a ball security standpoint and those touches risk injury to the most critical offensive player?

First of all, my guess is that if Love is to return, it will not be primarily to improve his profile to the NFL.


Secondly, I see no reason at all for Love to come out on third down plays (he should come out from time to time, just not specifically third down plays).
His pass blocking isn't great but not atrocious. More importantly, I don't see any reason he cannot be effective as an outlet. Backs catching a dump off usually have at least a few steps of space around them, and having Love with some space seems like a very good idea.

Don't know if he should return kicks or not. On the one hand, it does seem as if he ought to be very good at it - that whole having space thing again. On the other, he does need some plays off and Scarlett was at least good at this role last year. (#2 in Pac 12 in yds/return; #1 in the country in total kick return yards ... which may be a pretty meaningless stat)
Do kick off returners really suffer injury at a greater rate than running backs?