Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 07-19-2022

(07-19-2022, 11:18 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  S-400's in Sevastopol will not prevent use of low altitude SU25s or helicopters, though could limit use of Bakraktars flying at higher altitude. Even these may be low enough to stay out of range of missile defenses so far away (I'm not certain of their usual operating altitude).

And Russia will also need to take care not to shoot down their own planes. Here we can see their air defense take out one of their own Su34s. Oops!


[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1548903210127065088?s=20&t=pryUgtNcVw32P4RLTyyiYg[/tweet]

Aftermath-

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1548928553571553280?s=20&t=pryUgtNcVw32P4RLTyyiYg[/tweet]

This was an interesting article about what a Kherson counter offensive may look like.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/what-would-a-ukrainian-counter-offensive-in-kherson-look-like

It seems just recently a Russian SU-35 in the Kherson region was shot down by friendly fire.  I wonder if we are seeing secondary effects of HIMARS, where they are trying to shoot down HIMARS missiles, but accidentally targeting their own aircraft.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 07-19-2022

I saw a video from a guy reporting a lot of war details in Ukraine saying Crimea is absolutely going to be an area of focus for Ukraine's forces because it is a critical supply route for Russia to attack elsewhere. It seems Ukraine's mindset is to remove Russia from all of Ukraine, including annexed territories like Crimea. This suggest no negotiations with Russia and the lines are drawn and enforced with force. Whether Ukraine achieves its goals or has to change them remains to be seen.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 07-19-2022

Here's video of the Su35 shoot down in Kherson.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1549473775586091009?s=20&t=-k7OlmMtXVF-byfaO2h0cA[/tweet]

I doubt any Russian system is capable of taking down a GMLRS rocket, excepting their nuclear tipped A135 system to protect Moscow from an ICBM. If they are trying to intercept them, someone should probably tell 'em to stop soon though!

Edit-
Seems like Ukraine is taking credit for it. Hard to know based on the limited video available so far.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1549471152195751939?s=20&t=-k7OlmMtXVF-byfaO2h0cA[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 07-19-2022

I'd assume it was friendly fire, mainly because a helicopter from the Russians went to go rescue the pilot, I guess it could've been low enough to avoid SAM radar, but most Russian telegram sources seem to be saying it was Russian AA friendly fire.

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Sounds like a new US aid package to Ukraine will be announced this week, which will include more HIMARS.  Probably 4 more, but 8 or more would be nice.  I'm guessing this will also include more ammo for 155mm and HIMARS.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 07-19-2022

(07-19-2022, 12:17 PM)Treefence Wrote:  

(07-19-2022, 11:18 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  S-400's in Sevastopol will not prevent use of low altitude SU25s or helicopters, though could limit use of Bakraktars flying at higher altitude. Even these may be low enough to stay out of range of missile defenses so far away (I'm not certain of their usual operating altitude).

The 9M96E family will do just fine destroying low altitude targets at a range of up to 120 km. The majority of the S-400 family missiles are semi-active radar homing (SARAH) missiles, but the 9M96E series is designed to be "fire and forget". This feature allows these missiles to be fired at targets that the launcher (and/or it's associated acquisition radar) cannot see. The A-50 Mainstay is supposedly capable of doing exactly that, although AFAIK we have never seen it do so. Something new may be learned. The 120 km range does limit the reach of these missiles. While the original purpose of these missiles was to defend Sevastopol, they are scattered all over Crimea and are mobile enough to pose a serious problem. They can reach most of the Kherson Oblast that way. The second issue is that flying an SU-25 at very low altitude from it's base to the target area and back is often difficult and accident-prone. Transiting part way at higher altitude is desirable, and that can be hard to do under the circumstances.

Ukraine will undoubtedly find a way. It just may not be cost-free. If it turns out the A-50 actually can't take control of the battle space then it is just Tors, Panstirs and MANPADS to worry about. That said, without acquisition help Tors and Panstirs are not that lethal against low flying aircraft. Their firing window is pretty small, but if you blunder into it you are in trouble.

(07-19-2022, 12:17 PM)Treefence Wrote:  

(07-19-2022, 11:18 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  And Russia will also need to take care not to shoot down their own planes. Here we can see their air defense take out one of their own Su34s. Oops!

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1548903210127065088?s=20&t=pryUgtNcVw32P4RLTyyiYg

Aftermath-

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1548928553571553280?s=20&t=pryUgtNcVw32P4RLTyyiYg

This was an interesting article about what a Kherson counter offensive may look like.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/what-would-a-ukrainian-counter-offensive-in-kherson-look-like

It seems just recently a Russian SU-35 in the Kherson region was shot down by friendly fire.  I wonder if we are seeing secondary effects of HIMARS, where they are trying to shoot down HIMARS missiles, but accidentally targeting their own aircraft.

Could be. The Russian systems all have IFF on the launchers, but the missiles themselves do not. If the missile is SARAH the guys who launched it should detect the "friendly" in the area and not allow the missile to kill it. If it is active radar homing or infrared homing that is often impossible. It is possible the Russian aircraft did not have working IFF or that they didn't have the correct codes. Lots can go wrong in that arena. It is also possible the guys who launched the missiles violated the rules and did not de-conflict the targets properly.

It is also possible the Ukrainians did it, as I think they are claiming?

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(07-19-2022, 11:26 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Can you provide more info on the basis for believing that attacking supply lines or air defenses in Crimea constitutes a "red line" for Russia?  That may be the case, but the information I read in the press does not seem helpful in reaching any such conclusions.

No, I can't, thus my question. Crimea is certainly a different case in that Russia has officially absorbed it. What that actually means is the issue.

Quote:I'm not confident that there is a "red line" where anything on one side will draw no significant response and anything on the other side will draw an escalation to mutually assured destruction.  Putin does not seem fully rational, so maybe ignore logic, but, to my mind, if he were rational, I would expect escalations commensurate with acts that the US takes.

Fine, but what actions can Putin take that would be "proportional"? He is already using missiles with over 300 km range in Ukraine. Unclear to me what "makes sense" as escalation. I think he might ignore attacks in Crimea unless or until it looks like Ukraine is going to actually invade it. Then Putin must do "something" (or quit).

Quote: I suppose Putin might treat an attack on a bridge in the Black Sea as the same as an attack on civilian population centers like St. Petersburg, but that is not at all self-evident to me.

Nor to me. There is some evidence Ukraine has already staged limited attacks on "Russia proper" with helicopters. This was sort was ignored/swept under the rug. However, the Kerch Bridge is a symbol of Russia's "reconquest" of Crimea. It was a big deal when built and supplies an essential rail link to Crimea. It was also clearly built by Russia and was not there in 2014. Destroying it has both great practical and (even more so) symbolic importance. I don't see how Putin can ignore that if it happens. He will do something, I have no idea what.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 07-19-2022

There are videos of Ukrainian Su25s operating in Donbas regularly at very low altitude, ostensibly within nominal range of S400, but if they can't pick them up on radar they can't shoot missiles at them.

I haven't really seen anything about Russia deploying AWACS style aircraft in Ukraine, perhaps because Ukrainian S300 can range it.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 07-19-2022

I suppose that Putin could use it as a pretext for mobilizing for a full scale war.  He might argue that Ukraine’s invasion of “Russian territory” is causus belli.

As best I can tell, there isn’t that much more that Russia can throw at Ukraine other than conscript a million soldiers train them and through them at Ukraine.

And of course, there is always the unspeakable option.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 07-19-2022

(07-19-2022, 02:54 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  There are videos of Ukrainian Su25s operating in Donbas regularly at very low altitude, ostensibly within nominal range of S400, but if they can't pick them up on radar they can't shoot missiles at them.

Quite correct.

Quote:I haven't really seen anything about Russia deploying AWACS style aircraft in Ukraine, perhaps because Ukrainian S300 can range it.

They won't deploy it in Ukraine. They don't need to, it can see quite far enough from Russian/Belarus airspace. You might want to look at
https://charter97.org/en/news/2022/7/14/506582 and [quote="Goose" pid='357874' dateline='1657554489'] in this thread (page 62, July 11).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 07-19-2022

I guess I don't understand your point. Ukraine is regularly flying low altitude combat missions with their Su25s, in spite of Russian long range SAMs and any A-50s operating in Russia or Belarus. We see videos of this every few days. If Russia could stop this they would've by now. Ukraine doesn't have a ton of these planes after all.

Not sure why it would be any different in a Kherson counterattack.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 07-19-2022

(07-19-2022, 03:08 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  And of course, there is always the unspeakable option.

I wonder at what point Putin will employ a tactical nuke.  And what NATO's response will be. 

Let's assume that this isn't a stalemate where the Russians can walk away with some gains, but (thanks to NATO military supplies), Russia starts to lose, perceptibly.  What are the odds that Putin uses a tactical nuke, do you think?

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Why Russia is really losing: mutant Ukrainian soldiers, created in American biolabs...of course:
Russia Says It’s Losing Because Ukraine Has Experimental Mutant Troops Created in Secret Biolabs (yahoo.com)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 07-19-2022

(07-19-2022, 04:54 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I guess I don't understand your point. Ukraine is regularly flying low altitude combat missions with their Su25s, in spite of Russian long range SAMs and any A-50s operating in Russia or Belarus. We see videos of this every few days. If Russia could stop this they would've by now. Ukraine doesn't have a ton of these planes after all.

Not sure why it would be any different in a Kherson counterattack.

As I pointed out in my post, you are indeed correct that before a week ago we saw no involvement by Mainstays. Given their employment in Syria, that seemed a bit strange. I conjectured that perhaps they were not using them (and the Donbas is right next to Russia) because they believed that NATO would then do the same thing from NATO airspace. Russia couldn't expect less if they did this. They might have expected that they didn't need to do so, but given exactly what you point out, that may have changed. They may now think they need to do so. They may be preparing to do this, thus the recent activity. Whether this is true only time will tell. We know they used them in Syria to task fighters against Turkey. In theory, they can target missiles. Whether they can or not is TBD.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 07-19-2022

Have not followed this closely, but Jane's had Russia flying A-50s from Belarus pretty much from day one.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/ukraine-conflict-belarus-based-a-50-aewc-aircraft-lead-russian-air-offensive-on-ukraine

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 07-19-2022

(07-19-2022, 05:22 PM)Mick Wrote:  

(07-19-2022, 03:08 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  And of course, there is always the unspeakable option.

I wonder at what point Putin will employ a tactical nuke.  And what NATO's response will be. 

Let's assume that this isn't a stalemate where the Russians can walk away with some gains, but (thanks to NATO military supplies), Russia starts to lose, perceptibly.  What are the odds that Putin uses a tactical nuke, do you think?

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Why Russia is really losing: mutant Ukrainian soldiers, created in American biolabs...of course:
Russia Says It’s Losing Because Ukraine Has Experimental Mutant Troops Created in Secret Biolabs (yahoo.com)

Foreign Affairs has a series called “the Ukraine scenarios”. Worth a read to view speculation about the range of possible outcomes.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/issue-packages/2022-04-20/ukraine-scenarios

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 07-19-2022

(07-19-2022, 06:46 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Have not followed this closely, but Jane's had Russia flying A-50s from Belarus pretty much from day one.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/ukraine-conflict-belarus-based-a-50-aewc-aircraft-lead-russian-air-offensive-on-ukraine

True, they operated early on in the offensive where the two transport carrying paratroopers got shot down. After that, I don't see any record of them doing this, and even in this period they weren't controlling fighters (or targeting missiles) for that matter. If you Google Mainstay or A-50 you will find almost no references(I found 3, one your article, one saying the Russians could use them as the air war evolved, and one saying Russia was flying them to cover Polish airspace). It is not as if anybody has noticed them.

It doesn't seem they have used them much at all, which is weird IMHO. As you point out, they clearly have them. They can easily detect aircraft flying low out to 800 km range. Luhansk isn't nearly that big. The A-50 is able to see anything that moves in that airspace, and yet the Russians haven't stopped the Ukrainian SU-25s. Using the known capabilities of the A-50, Russian fighters should be able to stay in relatively "safe" airspace and shoot R-77s at the Ukrainians with little risk to themselves. They can stay low inside occupied territory where the S-300 can't see them. Guided by the A-50 they can pop up, fire their missiles at the known target and dive back towards Russia. The R-77 has pretty good look-down shoot-down performance. The Ukrainian S-300s, even if they detect the Russian jet, can't guide on it when it goes low (below the radar horizon) again. Yet as far as we know the Russians have not even tried to do this. This is a known capability they have. If they can target S-400 missiles it is another additional significant threat, but we don't know for sure they can. The new activity in Belarus make one wonder if this A-50 situation is about to change.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 07-19-2022

I think we have seen all the capabilities Russia has, excepting NBC. 

At this stage, they are using S300 SAMs as ground attack missiles, elite frogmen as grunt infantry, and bringing up 60 year old tanks, so I don't think they are holding much back in reserve. If A-50s and S400s could take out low flying Ukrainian Su25s, they wouldn't still be flying combat sorties, not 5 months into the war and with Ukraine having perhaps 20-30 operational at start of war with maybe 5-10 supplied in parts since start of it.

All that being said this is probably mostly academic, as in any counteroffensive the Ukrainian AF will probably play a limited role just because they are not that numerous, and GMLRS and Excalibur rounds can probably provide more accurate close fire support anyway.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 07-19-2022

(07-19-2022, 08:17 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I think we have seen all the capabilities Russia has, excepting NBC. 




At this stage, they are using S300 SAMs as ground attack missiles, elite frogmen as grunt infantry, and bringing up 60 year old tanks, so I don't think they are holding much back in reserve. If A-50s and S400s could take out low flying Ukrainian Su25s, they wouldn't still be flying combat sorties, not 5 months into the war and with Ukraine having perhaps 20-30 operational at start of war with maybe 5-10 supplied in parts since start of it.

I would buy that argument in a minute if Russia had attempted that and failed. So far as I know, they didn't try, which is why I said it was weird. The have tried lots of other things repeatedly that didn't work, why not this one? They are using anti-ship missiles as ground attack missiles, yet they are unwilling to fire a bunch of R-77s at Su25s? Makes no sense unless they somehow think using the A-50 carries some other risk we are unaware of. The other possibility is that they are now going to try it.

Quote:All that being said this is probably mostly academic, as in any counteroffensive the Ukrainian AF will probably play a limited role just because they are not that numerous, and GMLRS and Excalibur rounds can probably provide more accurate close fire support anyway.

On this we totally agree. The SU25s main benefit is to function as a "fire brigade" where help is needed but there are no nearby alternatives. They move much faster than artillery or HIMARS. They can also strike deeper than artillery and HIMARS (lacking ATACMS) but only at significant risk and therefore probably won't be used that way. Agree they are not numerous enough to be a major force.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 07-20-2022

(07-19-2022, 01:17 PM)Treefence Wrote:  I'd assume it was friendly fire, mainly because a helicopter from the Russians went to go rescue the pilot, I guess it could've been low enough to avoid SAM radar, but most Russian telegram sources seem to be saying it was Russian AA friendly fire.

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Sounds like a new US aid package to Ukraine will be announced this week, which will include more HIMARS.  Probably 4 more, but 8 or more would be nice.  I'm guessing this will also include more ammo for 155mm and HIMARS.

It’s four more for now:
https://mobile.twitter.com/DeptofDefense/status/1549774746862161921

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 07-20-2022

Yup, 4 more HIMARS systems coming to Ukraine.  16 total have been pledged.  Slowly working the numbers up there.  I believe Russia will being their attempt to take the rest of the Donbas region, and more signs point at an attempted Kherson counter offensive by the Ukrainians, I wonder how they allocate the systems for each.  

My thought is that Ukraine wants to take Kherson and hold that line, since there is a brobdingnagian natural barrier with the Dnipro river.  I'd assume once they clear out that region north of the Dnipro, it would free up a lot more troops to fight in the east, since you'd only need a certain percentage of the currently allocated troops to protect the river (correct me if I'm wrong).  This also prevents Russia from attempting to hold a "referendum" to annex Kherson.  

It'll be interesting to see if the HIMARS system (and M270s) help neutralize the strong artillery advantage Russia has.  Theoretically they should be able to keep them out of Russian artillery range while picking off them off, but I'd assume the also relies on them not making any mistakes, and the Russians not figuring out a counter for the HIMARS.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 07-20-2022

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/07/20/ukraine-fighter-jets/

Looks like jets might be back on the menu.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1549803973263212544?s=20&t=d1hYOr2bD1Yq4NW7w-_Csg[/tweet]

Roughly estimating, 16 HIMARS firing continuously (obviously not how they would be used) would exhaust the entire historical production run of GMLRS missiles in about 4 days. In a single day they could fire more missiles than can be produced in a year (if internet numbers can be believed, but even if not correct certainly in the ballpark).

So getting Ukraine more launchers might be good for flexibility and survivability etc, but the number of rockets will be the restriction ultimately. Hopefully production of these rockets is being prioritized.

.....

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1549860094774493184?s=20&t=xvVXcnH6i2407ZjOtVbQkA
[/tweet]

I'm sure Ukraine would prefer F16s but if they can find a use for Su-25s, then A-10s could perhaps have a role.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 07-20-2022

I still can't believe that Ukrainian pilots could be trained up on American/western aircraft quickly enough to make a difference given the opportunity cost of what else could be shipped over instead.

Good point about the GMLRS missile expenditure rate; it's been a target-rich environment for HIMARs over there, and there just aren't enough rockets with which to surprise Russian troops/supply lines.

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