Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-13-2022

(08-13-2022, 12:14 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  A more bearish assessment of Ukraine’s capabilities in Kherson…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/12/ukraine-kherson-battle/

Quote:Ukrainian military officials are tight-lipped on any timeline for a wider push, but say they need more supplies of Western weapons before one can happen. Ukraine lacks the capacity to launch a full-scale offensive anywhere along the 1,200-mile front line, one security official conceded.

BC

(08-13-2022, 12:36 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I read that article too. It may be that Ukraine is not prepared for a full scale offensive. It may also be that Russia is not prepared to defend even against a scattered and limited one once they lose overwhelming artillery advantage and can no longer deny airspace, not with 50 year old reservists and 60 year old tanks.

In so far as the Ukraine is unable to mount a full-scale offensive in Kherson, that is indeed very bad news. Previously they had expressed the hope they could do so. Ukraine is putting a lot of pressure on Kherson city and that side of the river. This may indeed cause the Russians to chose not to defend on that side of the river. I had previously thought that was the case, but then Russia moved a lot of troops south as if they intended to hold on to that area. In a month or so bad weather will make offensive war more difficult. It will also make supply across the frozen river easier, but that is a ways off.

It seems Ukraine is currently intending to give Russia every reason to evacuate Kherson and that side of the river. If Russia does that it would be indeed a victory for Ukraine but a big missed opportunity. Cutting off the Russians on that side of the river and forcing a surrender of say 20K Russians would be major victory and open the way to taking back the rest of Kherson Oblast. Letting those 20K Russians retreat to the Kherson Oblast means Ukraine now has to fight them there.

Despite the Ukraine's claims that they need more "western weapons", the fact is they have not developed a mobile striking force. That is hard to do while you are in the middle of a war, but if they don't do that they will always be unable to take full advantage of opportunities they have created, such as the one around Kherson. They have the wherewithal to do it. They have the weapons, perhaps not ideal weapons and perhaps not every weapon they would like, but they have "enough". It just may be that they need more time, and maybe the fighting in the Donbas took all their attention. However, the only way they are going to "win" this war is to inflict a defeat on Russia that causes at least a local collapse. The Ukraine can't fight Russia like Russia is fighting them. A mirror image conflict can't "work" because Ukraine doesn't have (and never will have) the artillery to do it. Ukraine isn't going to get a "magic" western weapon that will enable them to slug it out with Russia. They need to outmaneuver them. The Ukraine has shown signs of "getting it" in this regard, but so far they can't execute.

UPDATE: I decided to post this reference even though I don't agree with a lot of it because it raises important points that have to be addressed and seriously considered. WARNING: It is a real downer. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/08/ukraine-needs-a-miracle-to-drive-russias-military-out-of-kherson
I think he is wrong about Ukraine taking Kherson city because Ukraine isn't ever going to do a block by block urban warfare assault there. Their goal is (or should be) to cut off the Russians stationed there (including the reinforcements recently delivered) and let them rot. Given their poor morale once they realize they are cut off from resupply or withdrawal, the rank and file certainly and the officers probably will surrender. It is an honorable ticket out of the war. They will take it. Maybe not all at once, but after a few days when there is no more ammunition and no more food, a ticket on a train to western Ukraine will look pretty good.

Secondly, Ukraine is already across the the river. Not in great strength and not near Kherson, but they are across. It won't be an opposed river crossing. The entire op has to move fast though. Bypass strong points and overrun the Russian artillery and S-300 batteries. Show up where you are not expected and where there is no organized defense.

Yes, Ukraine has to conduct an opposed assault across 30 km or so of open country. They are going to need fire suppression on Russian artillery in the area. They need to take the Gephards along (and hope they work). It needs to be an armored assault to allow it to be rapid and to prevent the infantry from getting destroyed by artillery. That is why the IFV was invented. They are also not going where the Russians are. They are going around them to cut their communications and isolate them. Yes, its will be hard. But that is the way. Unfortunately it may not be in the cards ATM.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-13-2022

It will be important to get confirmation… but still, as they say “big, if true”.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1558478313701707778?s=21&t=s2IF8m8XjXpEyWuStlusog[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-13-2022

BC, it's like you don't even read my posts!

Yup, Ukraine claims both the army command and the installed civilian administrators/kapos have fled. They also claim to to have now rendered inoperable all 4 bridges across the Dnieper and the rail line into Kherson from Crimea.  More here-

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/13/world/europe/ukraine-russia-himars-kherson.html

Perhaps an encircling maneuver to trap Russian forces on the other side would be more devastating, but reducing that force would still require time and Ukrainian blood. If Ukraine can just get them to leave I'm sure they'll be happy with that, just like earlier in the war when they basically shot at the Russians as they fled from around Kiev without trying to trap them in pockets. They still killed a lot of Russians that way. And plenty of Russian's may surrender anyways once they realize there won't be room on the ferry.

This is still the easiest first step, and time is probably not in Ukraine's favor for a big offensive maneuver before October when the mud will be an issue. They still have many soldiers out of the country training as well. But with mud and then winter coming, I would much rather have Ukraine's supply lines and rear situation than Russia's.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-13-2022

Sorry, I thought the tweet by Alperovitch was speculative (“if the Russians abandon Kherson”); I didn’t view it as a claim, though reading it a second time, it does seem based on some of the same Ukrainian sources I noted.

Would be a much needed morale boost if the Ukrainians could take back Kherson.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-13-2022

Lol. The inglorious bastards of Kherson.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1558175542314246144?s=21&t=hj3wxr4zrUlrKhgtX0mWZQ[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-13-2022

(08-13-2022, 07:22 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Perhaps an encircling maneuver to trap Russian forces on the other side would be more devastating, but reducing that force would still require time and Ukrainian blood. If Ukraine can just get them to leave I'm sure they'll be happy with that, just like earlier in the war when they basically shot at the Russians as they fled from around Kiev without trying to trap them in pockets. They still killed a lot of Russians that way. And plenty of Russian's may surrender anyways once they realize there won't be room on the ferry.

I absolutely agree that taking back Kherson will be a victory even if most of the Russians successfully retreat. We can always hope that the flight of the "high command" but not the withdrawal of all their forces will result in significant Russian losses when they do attempt to withdraw. This withdrawal would also force the withdrawal of the forces north and west of Kherson that rely on the same supply lines. In short, maybe Russia will mess this up badly enough to do real damage! We can hope. However, just has happened in the retreat from Kiev, the forces that withdrew showed up in the Donbas. Yes, there weren't quite as many as there were the time before, but they kept coming.

Quote:This is still the easiest first step, and time is probably not in Ukraine's favor for a big offensive maneuver before October when the mud will be an issue.

For sure a big offensive is not a good idea if you are not trained for it,  resourced for it, and not ready to do it. Actually, if they were ready this is an ideal time for it, because they could dislocate the Russian forces badly and when the Russians (inevitably) re-organized themselves the weather would greatly hinder any counter attack attempted by the Russians. The only downside would be that if one expected a Russian collapse the bad weather would prevent exploitation all the way into/through Crimea.

Quote:They still have many soldiers out of the country training as well.

This is an extremely good point. Today Sweden offered to train Ukrainians as well. It may be that Ukraine felt it needed better trained troops to do what they need to do in a mobile assault, and this current training effort is part of that. Could be a very good and necessary thing. Better to realize that and not suffer casualties to find it out.

Quote:But with mud and then winter coming, I would much rather have Ukraine's supply lines and rear situation than Russia's.

Not so sure I agree. Russia's economy is bad, Ukraine's is much, much worse. There are many displaced persons in Ukraine that will need food and heat. Russia doesn't have that problem. Russia can also sit back and launch all the "junk" they can find that will fly in indiscriminate attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and population. Ukraine can't do much in answer. Russia can also fire artillery for harassment and interdiction in far greater quantities than Ukraine can.
One thing Ukraine does have working for them is Spetsnaz operations and partisan activities. Hopefully Ukraine can get trained up and ready to go so when spring comes they can do real damage that Russia simply doesn't expect.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-14-2022

Lol. Russians post photo of local HQ, with the ADDRESS VISIBLE on internet. HIMARS promptly blows it up. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1558852348646248449?s=20&t=eVHcQeK65k1SD4PM4el4eA[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-14-2022

Saw that.  There are some conflicting reports about whether the head of Wagner group was there at the time.  Looks like probably not, but wouldn't it be a shame if he joined the Moskva and about a dozen generals...

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-14-2022

(08-14-2022, 01:04 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Lol. Russians post photo of local HQ, with the ADDRESS VISIBLE on internet. HIMARS promptly blows it up. 

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1558852348646248449?s=20&t=eVHcQeK65k1SD4PM4el4eA

(08-14-2022, 01:20 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Saw that.  There are some conflicting reports about whether the head of Wagner group was there at the time.  Looks like probably not, but wouldn't it be a shame if he joined the Moskva and about a dozen generals...

BC

Anything bad that can happen to the Wagner group is good for humanity. Many of the people involved in that "group" are not from Russia. IMHO more effort should be exerted by all NATO states to identify and punish those persons in their respective countries. There is no reason these people should profit for their actions against Ukraine, particularly if they are violating national anti-merc laws (which most EU nations have). If it becomes clear it just isn't worth the trouble lots of them will quit.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-16-2022

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-telegraphed-big-counteroffensive-months-000105836.html

Somewhat a summary of what we have already talked about recently. I still hope it works out. One thing that has not been pointed out is that the situation around Kherson city is geographically uniquely to Ukraine's advantage. While there are places in the Donbas where Russia has a weakly-held bridgehead with a river to their back, the river is nothing compared to the Dnipro. It also doesn't threaten the water supply for Crimea. Not being able to take advantage of this opportunity in Kherson Oblast right now may be very costly, because it may not persist.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-16-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1559482774704345088?s=21&t=SZylyhLG7_EwMEeKVlGEhA[/tweet]

The article is a tour de force on the build up to the war, mostly from the perspective of the US trying to convince everyone who would listen that war was coming.  It’s long, but we’ll worth the read, even as it doesn’t cover a ton of new ground, so much as put together a single cohesive, well written story.

And then there is my favorite quote “We assumed they would invade a country the way we would have invaded a country”


BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 08-16-2022

Paywall, unfortunately. Without reading the content but from your synopsis, and the few words I could get from the article, the US and Biden did everything they could, but no one would listen. Does that sum it up?

(08-16-2022, 07:42 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  [tweet]https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1559482774704345088?s=21&t=SZylyhLG7_EwMEeKVlGEhA[/tweet]

The article is a tour de force on the build up to the war, mostly from the perspective of the US trying to convince everyone who would listen that war was coming.  It’s long, but we’ll worth the read, even as it doesn’t cover a ton of new ground, so much as put together a single cohesive, well written story.

And then there is my favorite quote “We assumed they would invade a country the way we would have invaded a country”


BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 08-16-2022

The best line: The Kremlin did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-17-2022

More about what we can expect in a few weeks:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/the-return-of-rasputitsa-and-what-it-means-for-russias-war-in-ukraine-183138153.html
The following quote is from retired Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan, now at Janes's

Quote:“Right now, the Russians and Ukrainians are likely competing for territory in the belief that any ground they take before the end of summer will be safe from recapture throughout the winter as the war bogs down further,” the Janes analyst said.

“Once autumn arrives, life for infantry will get harder, last-mile resupply will become more difficult in the more rural fronts and artillery will find it harder to move around to employ ‘shoot and scoot’ tactics. This will make the use of artillery more dangerous for both sides.”

Ukraine literally needs to make as much hay as they can while the sun shines. Ukraine may be very happy they have some M270s as well as HIMARS until the ground freezes.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-17-2022

Don’t you hate it when this happens?

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/crimea-sabotage-russia-military-base-ukraine-offensive-rcna43456

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-17-2022

(08-17-2022, 08:04 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Don’t you hate it when this happens?

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/crimea-sabotage-russia-military-base-ukraine-offensive-rcna43456

BC

Another good thing about this kind of warfare is that you can execute it just as well in the winter, sometimes better because the guards and security people are just trying not to freeze to death.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 08-18-2022

It seems a lot has been going on recently, especially deep in Russian territory, mainly Crimea and Belgorod.  A brobdingnagian ammunition depot in Timonovo Belgorod seems to get going up in flames.  Lots of videos of this with many secondary explosions (Tweet 1).  There also seems to be video of explosions at Stary Oskol airfield also in Belgorod (Tweet 2). Russian air defense claims to have shot down a drone near the Kerch bridge (Tweet 3). Belbek airfield in Crimea seems to have visible explosions (Tweet 4).  Also there was leaked footage from a Ukrainian worker at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant showing Russian equipment right by the main reactor, as well as Russian media hinting at a future attack (Tweets 5 and 6).   

[tweet]https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1560342178903326722?s=20&t=sScm8dQRUa1AQXMNZUFM1A[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1560351368459829248?s=20&t=sScm8dQRUa1AQXMNZUFM1A[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1560334564991635457?s=20&t=sScm8dQRUa1AQXMNZUFM1A[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1560355507860389888?s=20&t=sScm8dQRUa1AQXMNZUFM1A[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1560305614353567756?s=20&t=sScm8dQRUa1AQXMNZUFM1A[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1560155377072840706?s=20&t=sScm8dQRUa1AQXMNZUFM1A[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 08-18-2022

This is worrisome.  Could Russia be planning a scorched, irradiated earth retreat?  I hope not.  One could imagine abandoning the site, but waiting for opponent troops to come into the area before causing a nuclear incident.

The alleged inside-the-plant video looks consistent with someone walking with a phone in their hand, swinging normally. The swinging is lessened to get the view of the trucks but the person doesn't pause until the elevator.  The tweet of the video is about 10 hours after the Russian announcement.

If I were Russia trying to protect equipment, I'd hide missile launchers or something that should be apparent, not these sorta generic trucks.   You can imagine those trucks having anything in them, supplies for the plant, artillery, bodies, explosives, ...

Quote:Ukraine’s military intelligence believes that Russia is planning a “provocation” at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant tomorrow. “The occupiers announced an unexpected ‘day off’ at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station. On 19 August, only operative personnel will be at the ZNPP. Entry to all other employees will be closed,”

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 08-19-2022

Will we be seeing future headlines in European news declaring EU & NATO should have taken the fight to Russia and risked nuclear war, if Russia destroys a nuclear plant that creates fallout and contaminates western Europe?

I continue to believe the only way to stop Russia from causing catastrophic damage to the world is by removing its war and destruction mongering government. But I will readily admit it's way way easier said than done.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-19-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ej_burrows/status/1560601884666146816?s=21&t=pBPHrPlMhY13EJXBqRkqJQ[/tweet]

This, if true, would be good news for the Ukrainians, as it will make Russia’s preferred mode of attack (carpet the ground with artillery in order to support a slow plodding territorial advance) much more difficult.

The whole thread is worth a read, including the assessment of the once proud Russian Black Sea fleet.

BC

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