Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 08-20-2022

(08-20-2022, 01:31 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(08-20-2022, 11:21 AM)Treefence Wrote:  There would be some sort of poetic justice if Ukraine was able to liberate Crimea thanks to "These little drones" after Crimea was annexed thanks largely to "little green men." I know we've seen partisan activity in Kherson and Melitopol, it would be nice to see a large uptick in all temporary occupied areas.

These little drones are indeed a weapon. What the Russian residents of Sevastopol also realize is that these little drones don't fly all that far. They are almost certainly being launched from inside Crimea and possibly from inside Sevastopol itself. One slight correction. While both Luhansk and Donetsk saw lots of activity by "little green men", Crimea was annexed via Russian regular forces that were present in large numbers because Russia rented the Sevastopol navy base from Ukraine. There was lots of resident Naval Infantry. It also helped that the population of Crimea was fairly heavily Russian.

There have been several references to the "destruction of Black Sea Fleet aviation" by the recent partisan activity. While this activity was important and very significant, several facts must be noted. First, the destroyed aircraft count is 13 planes, some of which were very obsolete SU-24s. Not exactly the "big deal" the headlines indicate.

This fact ties in with the above because Black Sea Fleet aviation exists at all only because there was a treaty obligation that no Russian planes would be stationed in Crimea except naval aviation. Naval Aviation was assumed to mean anti-submarine helicopters and possibly IL-38 ASW aircraft. Naturally, since the treaty didn't specify this, Russia transferred a ground attack squadron to the Black Sea Fleet and called it "Naval Aviation". Russian Naval Aviation hasn't fared well under Putin, although the western press insists on calling units that were transferred from the Fleet to the Air Force "Naval Aviation". Aside from the Black Sea Fleet for the reason mentioned above, there is no Russian Fleet Air. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Naval_Aviation.

Quote:As of 2012, the only fixed wing strike and fighter aircraft of Russian Naval Aviation are the Su-33 fighters and Su-25UTG attack aircraft of the 279th Regiment (forming the Admiral Kuznetsov's carrier air wing), plus the Su-24 bombers based in the Crimea. This sole bomber unit remained part of Naval Aviation as an exception to satisfy treaty requirements governing Russian forces deployments on Ukrainian territory (these must be part of the Black Sea Fleet).[22] Buying brand new multirole Sukhoi Su-30SM for the Black Sea Fleet to replace Su-24 was in the planning stages and it has been completed as of December 2016.[23] Naval aviation also retains the anti-submarine aircraft of the forces (the Tu-142 and the Il-38) and the helicopter arm.

In fairness to the press, the Russian "re-re-re-re-organization" is such a mess it is unclear who actually reports where. What is clear is the Navy lost it's long-range strike bombers and all it's fighters except those in Crimea and the air wing (such as it is) of the Kuznetsov.

I believe there were little green men in Crimea, and lots of documentation to back that up. Yes, Russia had access to Sevastopol, but I think they wanted to portray the image of civil war, instead of occupation. Russian soldiers dressed in green uniforms without insignia, would pretend to be from Crimea.  In this youtube series, you can see the Russian soldiers in green uniforms with no insignia. I highly recommend this youtube series. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNKsLlK52ss&t=6s

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - newguy - 08-21-2022

a pro-war Russian journalist who was sanctioned by the United States has just been killed by a car bomb near Moscow.
she was also the daughter of Putin confidant Aleksandr Dugin.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62621509

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 08-21-2022

These long rang strikes in Crimea are still quite a mystery, and it seems the explanation goes back and forth between long range missiles and spooky boy stuff behind enemy lines.  This article theories the former, but in all honesty it's probably good we can't figure out for sure what the answer is.  The longer it's a mystery to Russians, the longer it might be successful.   

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-atacms-himars-missiles-161843626.html

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-21-2022

(08-20-2022, 02:52 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(08-20-2022, 01:54 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Am I missing something or was the Black Sea fleet pre-attack only something like 50 planes?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Naval_Aviation

Black Sea Fleet Air Arm – HQ Sevastopol (status in 2010)[18][19]

• 25th ASW Helicopter Regiment (25-й ОКПЛВП) - HQ at Kacha, Crimea - ~20 helicopters of types Ka-27 and Mi-14
  
• 917th Composite Aviation Regiment (917-й ОСАП) - HQ at Kacha, Crimea - ~10x Antonov transport aircraft of types An-12, An-26, An-2, 4x Be-12; ~10x Mi-8
  
• 43rd Naval Attack Aviation Regiment (43-й ОМШАП)[when?] - HQ at Gvardeyskoe, Crimea - 18x Su-24M; 4x Su-24MR[citation needed]; the Crimean Saki Naval Airfield portion of the regiment was decimated in a 9 August 2022 attack by Ukraine during the Russo-Ukraine war[20]
  

I count 30 helicopters (including the 10 Mi-8), 10 transport planes, and 22 jets (18 Su-24M, and 4 Su-24MR).  Loss of 13 of those would seem to me to be quite significant.

BC

You are quite correct. The "Fleet Air Arm" of the Black Sea Fleet is a joke. The helicopters are either ASW (KA-27) or transport helicopters. The only relevant war fighting capability was in the 43 Naval Attack Aviation Regiment. As the Wikipedia article states elsewhere, some of the obsolete Su-24s had been replaced by Su-33s. While it is true the loss of 13 aircraft is indeed a very significant blow to the 43rd, my point was that the entire "Fleet Air Arm" is insignificant. You aren't going to do too much damage with 22 or so planes, over half of which are obsolete and which are not equipped with stand-off weapons. Their operational significance is pretty close to nil.

I misunderstood your earlier point.  The naval air base strike was insignificant, not because only a small share of capabilities were knocked out, but rather because their capabilities were pretty lame to begin with.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 08-21-2022

The blow up of Alexander Dugin's spawn is glorious. I don't care if he was the target and she was blown to bits instead, or if they both were and he avoided it for now, but holy crap!  A drone strike deep in Russia that kills an influential Russian?

Surely Alexander knows he's next on the list and can't feel safe anywhere now. Just LOVE that Russian terrorists are now themselves feeling the fear they have inflicted on so many others. 

First, Russians fleeing because of continued "smoking accidents" in ammo dumps and air fields in Crimea. Ukraine attacks on Russian territory in Belgrod, and now random Russians being targeted for execution by drones. Putin is looking quite incompetent these days, and one wonders how long he will be able to continue his "special" military operation from a political backing standpoint. The Russian public hopped up on propaganda may support him, but Kremlin leaders may not for very much longer.

I love, love, love the fact Vlad is trying to start peace talks, thinking he can stop fighting and keep Russian occupied Ukraine territory, and Ukraine's answer is we can talk peace when yer all out of our territory. Ukraine is telling Russia it can start a war with us, but Ukraine decides when it's over.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 08-21-2022

Wow. . . .

(08-21-2022, 10:28 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  The blow up of Alexander Dugin's spawn is glorious. I don't care if he was the target and she was blown to bits instead,

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-21-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/markrid89403375/status/1561102805527666688?s=21&t=ywf_swXZIsgP7s2IsxBvhg[/tweet]

still trying to figure out what the point of this was?  Test NATO resolve? Just all round douchebaggery and stupidity by the Russians?

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 08-21-2022

(08-21-2022, 10:34 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:  Wow. . . .

(08-21-2022, 10:28 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  The blow up of Alexander Dugin's spawn is glorious. I don't care if he was the target and she was blown to bits instead,

 
I vote for the stuff in Crimea mostly being "little boy stuff".  Think back 80 years to the French Resistance.  Look the same, talk the same etc.  I wonder how hard it would be to infiltrate some little boys across into Crimea carry drones and some form of HE?  No flying parachute drops across the English Channel, just walk.  Can the Russians guard their border any better than they can their military installations?
A more interesting question is how did that car bomb get installed on that vehicle and who did it.  Probably was intended for Putins advisor, not his daughter, wrong person got in the car.  Probably a magnetic device just stuck underneath the end of the car and detonated by cell phone.  There has to be some seriously worried Putin buddies in Moscow.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-21-2022

Would never call the death of anyone, even someone abhorrent, “glorious”, much less someone’s daughter, but I guess here we are.

On the other hand, does it make me a bad person that I chuckled at the irony here?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/asluhn/status/1561393120402702336?s=21&t=ywf_swXZIsgP7s2IsxBvhg[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 08-21-2022

(07-31-2022, 07:46 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  On China deterrence, my prediction (and I put my money on it already) is that we’re about to see a global military build up.

Pretty good prediction.  Japan wants to increase the range of 1,000 of their ballistic miles from 100 km to 1,000 km.  All this with an eye on China.

Japan considers deploying long-range missiles to counter China: Report - CNA (channelnewsasia.com)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 08-21-2022

(08-21-2022, 11:00 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Would never call the death of anyone, even someone abhorrent, “glorious”, much less someone’s daughter, but I guess here we are.

On the other hand, does it make me a bad person that I chuckled at the irony here?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/asluhn/status/1561393120402702336?s=21&t=ywf_swXZIsgP7s2IsxBvhg[/tweet]

BC

His daughter called Ukrainians "sub-human" on Russian TV and called for the extermination of all of them. So yeah, it's glorious that she has been exterminated. In my book, you call for the death of people for political power games, and you deserve to die.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-21-2022

It’s not even 100% clear that this was a Ukrainian job.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/radiofreetom/status/1561385310973530113?s=21&t=RpYKSgDkHZGmoyeB4ICt-Q[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 08-21-2022

(08-21-2022, 11:00 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Would never call the death of anyone, even someone abhorrent, “glorious”, much less someone’s daughter, but I guess here we are.

+1

War is ugly.  We consider Ukraine the victim of an unprovoked, extended attack in 2014 and 2022.  How many people have died?  How many families have had a loved one die?  How many families have lost all or much of their life's work and have struggled.    Intellectually we can understand striking back at the attacker in ways to stop the attack, but emotionally I found myself reacting to the fact that this was a woman.

I guess intellectually I would advise against killing family members of leaders.  Such a loss could trigger an emotional response by the leader that is even more abhorrent than the current situation.   Among the possibilities is Russia (or partisans) reaching out to kill people related to this war in other countries.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 08-21-2022

Putting aside our personal opinions on the killing of Alexander Dugin's daughter...

Who knows how real this is, but the internet is claiming some resistance movement in Russia is responsible, or at least taking credit for the bombing, and otherwise planning to oppose the government. We are not accustomed to seeing any kind of internal resistance movements capable of violent acts against the Russian government and its enablers. We usually see any dissent cracked down on with great force, and don't see car bombings by anti-government groups. Wonder if this has NATO and/or Ukraine intelligence fingerprints on it? Sure would be fascinating to see how intel orgs might support resistance groups in Russia that can get a foothold and cause political instability that will make prosecuting war in Ukraine that much more difficult. All enemy countries seem to do this to each other to some degree.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/lilBeptolBismol/status/1561410168159617031[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-21-2022

(08-21-2022, 10:04 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  I misunderstood your earlier point.  The naval air base strike was insignificant, not because only a small share of capabilities were knocked out, but rather because their capabilities were pretty lame to begin with.


BC

For sure all of Naval Air has taken a big hit under Putin. The Black Sea Fleet was always a bit of a stepchild after Russia abandoned the Med. I wouldn't say the strike on the air base was insignificant. It did scare the Russians and made a big point. 13 airplanes is not "nothing". Operationally however, it didn't matter much. What mostly got my attention was the headlines that talked about "Destroying Half The Black Sea Fleet Air Force". That looks like a very significant loss until one realizes how small and insignificant that force was.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 08-21-2022

We are where we allow ourselves to be.

Calling a young woman someone's 'spawn' then reveling that she was 'blown to bits' is truly reprehensible commentary. We should be better than that. . . .

(08-21-2022, 11:00 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Would never call the death of anyone, even someone abhorrent, “glorious”, much less someone’s daughter, but I guess here we are.
BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Softball Fan - 08-21-2022

(08-21-2022, 11:11 AM)Mick Wrote:  

(07-31-2022, 07:46 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  On China deterrence, my prediction (and I put my money on it already) is that we’re about to see a global military build up.

Pretty good prediction.  Japan wants to increase the range of 1,000 of their ballistic miles from 100 km to 1,000 km.  All this with an eye on China.

Japan considers deploying long-range missiles to counter China: Report - CNA (channelnewsasia.com)

I'm thinking it might be a good time for me to put more weight on defense contractors in my stock portfolio.  If China speeds up its advances in military technology, can the U. S. stand idly by.   Plus the U.S. has to replenish all the equipment going into the Ukraine war.

China is talking more in recent days about supporting Russia in the war.   That's not good.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 08-21-2022

(08-21-2022, 12:50 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Putting aside our personal opinions on the killing of Alexander Dugin's daughter...

Who knows how real this is, but the internet is claiming some resistance movement in Russia is responsible, or at least taking credit for the bombing, and otherwise planning to oppose the government. We are not accustomed to seeing any kind of internal resistance movements capable of violent acts against the Russian government and its enablers. We usually see any dissent cracked down on with great force, and don't see car bombings by anti-government groups. Wonder if this has NATO and/or Ukraine intelligence fingerprints on it? Sure would be fascinating to see how intel orgs might support resistance groups in Russia that can get a foothold and cause political instability that will make prosecuting war in Ukraine that much more difficult. All enemy countries seem to do this to each other to some degree.

More details on the NRA - The Russian one, National Republican Army

https://news.yahoo.com/darya-dugina-killed-partisans-national-185407641.html

[tweet]https://twitter.com/lilBeptolBismol/status/1561410168159617031[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-21-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1561389170052022273?s=21&t=exX46-28Rbekc67PV1yQ1A[/tweet]

Interesting.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-21-2022

I thought it was an interesting article as well. The point about US not sending ATACMS but allowing Poland or Turkey etc to transfer them to not contravene Sullivan and Biden's declaration of not providing them was intriguing.

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