Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 08-25-2022

The enemy is increasing its commitment to the war, what are we going to do in response:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1562789103522816000?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-25-2022

This is propaganda mostly, probably anticipation of formally including Wagner, LNR/DNR forces in the Russian Army. Russia can't increase their struggling recruitment above what it is unless they declare war and institute a draft, and this is not what's been announced.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-25-2022

(08-25-2022, 04:57 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  This is propaganda mostly, probably anticipation of formally including Wagner, LNR/DNR forces in the Russian Army. Russia can't increase their struggling recruitment above what it is unless they declare war and institute a draft, and this is not what's been announced.

I think you are totally correct. This is a nothingburger IMHO.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-26-2022

https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/26/7145637/
Ostpolitik is unfortunately very much alive and well in Germany. The presence of the SPD in the current government is always going to be a major braking force on German support for Ukraine. How much support this view receives may be greatly modulated by how cold Germany gets this winter and how badly the German economy suffers due to gas shortages. As in the US, there are lots of "undecideds" that can be swayed easily if things get difficult. The current generation never experienced a divided Germany and the Warsaw Pact hanging over their nation. The previous one doesn't remember the first years of their life when they were children and nobody talked to them about politics. For these Germans, Europe is all lollipops and roses. They abhor the crimes Russia is committing but they may abhor being cold and a bit less wealthy a lot more.

The US needs to be heavily involved not only in influencing the German government but also in influencing the German people. We need a propaganda machine at least as effective as Putin's. AFAIK we really aren't making the case, probably because we think we don't need to do so. IMHO that is incorrect. We need to get the German public to be so wedded to the idea that Ukraine's survival is critical to their interests that the difficulties to come will be endured. The US and the rest of NATO also needs to do everything we can to support all  the countries in Europe (e.g. Bulgaria) that are/may be in serious difficulties due to gas shortages. Yes, it may be their own fault, but right now that isn't nearly as important as their remaining "inside the tent" to counter Putin. IMHO, we simply aren't doing enough.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/winter-coming-germanys-scholz-leaves-185656136.html
This is an example. The business case for LNG terminals isn't great if in 5 years or so the EU is using green Hydrogen to supply their energy needs. While that would be great, the Germans have not yet invested heavily enough in Hydrogen technology to make that feasible. While there is a reason to ensure the LNG terminals would be built with their future in mind, I see no reason Canada should not expedite their construction to help Germany in the short term. Obviously, not my call, but this kind of failure to respond incurs an obvious and serious risk.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TreesAndBirds - 08-26-2022

Russia moving its S-300 system that was stationed in Syria back to Russia. 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-sends-s-300-back-home-from-syria-amid-ukraine-invasion-satellite-images-show/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-26-2022

(08-26-2022, 03:06 PM)TreesAndBirds Wrote:  Russia moving its S-300 system that was stationed in Syria back to Russia. 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-sends-s-300-back-home-from-syria-amid-ukraine-invasion-satellite-images-show/

Probably it was damaged and not repairable on site. They don't need it to augment their air defenses in Russia or Ukraine. They have tons of S-300 and S-400s in Russia. Easier local sources. Russia maintains some S-400s currently in Syria, so it isn't like they are leaving there either.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 08-26-2022

Birds of a feather flock together:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Focus_Taiwan/status/1563120961938894848

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 08-27-2022

(08-26-2022, 06:04 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Birds of a feather flock together:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Focus_Taiwan/status/1563120961938894848

If you haven't see this article, it is well worth reading and sheds a lot of light on the various behind the lines attacks currently going on.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/27/politics/russia-ukraine-resistance-warfare/index.html

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 08-27-2022

(08-27-2022, 08:25 AM)GK3 Wrote:  

(08-26-2022, 06:04 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Birds of a feather flock together:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Focus_Taiwan/status/1563120961938894848

If you haven't see this article, it is well worth reading and sheds a lot of light on the various behind the lines attacks currently going on.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/27/politics/russia-ukraine-resistance-warfare/index.html

I wonder if the Taiwanese are working on their own version of resistance warfare for the inevitable day that the PROC's military tries to take over that island? I imagine the principles are similar to what the Japanese taught their civilian population in front of the anticipated Allied invasion near the end of WWII. Probably works well against conventional militaries that don't employ nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 08-27-2022

Interesting article. No mention of Taiwan, though of course we have to imagine they have similar plans in place. 

I’ve been wondering whether Russia’s distraction in Ukraine will allow Chechnya and Dagestan to increase internal resistance to Russian occupation and try again to form an independent state. (Not sure occupation is the right word to describe that situation, but you know what I mean.)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-27-2022

Don’t think so, the Chechen leadership was bought out by Moscow, to the point that many of the soldiers fighting for Russia in Ukraine were Chechen. The state is run like Ramsey Kadyeov’s personal fiefdom, and it has been more lucrative for him to be part of Russia than to lead a rebellion against it.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 08-29-2022

So it looks like Ukraine forces are making a push into and having success in Kherson today. Any thoughts on this seemingly important development?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 08-29-2022

The developments are pretty opaque at this point, probably by design. This Ukrainian journalist is saying the offensive may be more tactical at this phase:

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1564215627321167872

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-29-2022

(08-29-2022, 11:08 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  The developments are pretty opaque at this point, probably by design. This Ukrainian journalist is saying the offensive may be more tactical at this phase:

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1564215627321167872

Agree. I think the Ukraine had previously raised expectations of an offensive and now feel they need to do "something". I hope they haven't let the politics overcome their planning, although politics are real too. My guess is that they are aiming to force a Russian withdrawal from Kherson city and will be very happy if they accomplish that. Failing that, forcing Russia to postpone their fake "referendum" would also be a good thing. All that said, I have no idea what their currently planned operations may include. Ukraine may have larger goals and they undoubtedly know their capabilities better than we do.

Russia has recently moved a considerable quantity of modern military equipment in to Crimea. AFAIK none of that has gone further and into Kherson Oblast. Is this a precaution, is it a PR stunt to keep the Crimean population calm, or is it in expectation of needing it to defend Crimea? If the latter, they must be expecting more from Ukraine than meets the eye ATM.

UPDATE: Interesting statement. https://www.yahoo.com/news/counteroffensive-ukraines-south-office-president-133739013.html It appears that Ukraine does expect some "news" but also that they are becoming sensitive to accusations of "propaganda" due to over-enthusiastic reporting by some sources.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-29-2022

I hadn't seen this: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-army-awards-raytheon-missiles--defense-182-million-nasams-contract-for-ukraine-301613368.html
Finally, there is at least a contract. Who knows how long delivery will be. If there is any WIP, it could be re-routed to Ukraine, but I have no idea what the status there is. At this point it seems pretty clear we aren't sending any of our inventory. The estimated completion date of this contract is August 23, 2024. While this does not mean that Ukraine will get no systems until 2024 it certainly means they aren't getting any very soon.

Frankly, if I were a Ukrainian, I would be pretty upset (or at best bemused). They need an air umbrella NOW, not months from now. IMHO the performance of the US on this procurement is simply indefensible. They could have given Raytheon a letter contract the day Biden announced this thing. Instead, we waste months finalizing a contract that completes in 2024.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 08-29-2022

(08-29-2022, 12:15 PM)Goose Wrote:  I hadn't seen this: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-army-awards-raytheon-missiles--defense-182-million-nasams-contract-for-ukraine-301613368.html
Finally, there is at least a contract. Who knows how long delivery will be. If there is any WIP, it could be re-routed to Ukraine, but I have no idea what the status there is. At this point it seems pretty clear we aren't sending any of our inventory.

I just saw another article from a news magazine saying that the DoD has authorized increased production of HIMARS units at the factory in Arkansas, requiring expanded shifts and new hiring.  No numbers but the implication that at least some of the production will go to Ukraine.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 08-29-2022

Although Ukraine’s official sources are trying to keep a lid on developments in Kherson Oblast, there are a lot of rumors flying around. This source is skeptically passing on rumor that Ukraine has taken 5 named settlements along the front lines in Kherson Oblast (one actually behind the front lines, oddly). Even if partially inaccurate, this suggests more of a frontal assault than I anticipated.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1564329866342051840?cxt=HHwWgMDRrbXuzrUrAAAA

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-29-2022

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1564341358772555776?s=20&t=RpBfjnVkshxDtJ0hvv4T4w[/tweet]

An interesting development in that it likely does portend some sort of new expanded offensive. Hard to know exactly what's going on, Ukrainian chatter has been discouraged for opsec purposes. Russian sources have been indicative of some successful Ukrainian advances.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1564258204439175170?s=20&t=RpBfjnVkshxDtJ0hvv4T4w[/tweet]

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1564274795146932224
[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-29-2022

Last I saw, this was an operation to “prep the battlefield” for an operation.

I think caution for the next 72 hours or so until some of the fog of war is lifted.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-29-2022

(08-29-2022, 06:20 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Last I saw, this was an operation to “prep the battlefield” for an operation.

I think caution for the next 72 hours or so until some of the fog of war is lifted.

BC

Agree. We don't know what Ukraine intends or how stout Russia's response will be. I think the "prep the battlefield" comment is a news report analysis, not a Ukrainian quote(?). Right now, Ukraine appears to be attacking on a pretty broad front. Kind of a "Russian" battle plan. We will see what evolves but for sure we don't know yet.

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