Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Hurlburt88 - 09-03-2022

Has anyone read Putin's People?  My wife is currently reading it, and often mentions the low-quality of windows and resulting falls/deaths.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-03-2022

(09-03-2022, 11:58 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Each TB2 can carry 4 missiles, and Ukraine probably has more of them than Su24s and Su25s, and I'm sure is happier losing one than a piloted aircraft. Yes they will be more effective at night and at altitude, but they will still provide a lot of tactical capability in supporting a ground offensive. Ukraine has proven very adept at using systems outside of what they were designed for in this war.

I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the war Ukrainian TB2s will have taken out more armor than their Frogfoots and Hinds.

I don't disagree, mostly because Ukraine doesn't have many SU-25s and MI-24s. Supposedly, Ukraine has about 31 SU-25s that are operational. At the start of the war Ukraine supposedly had 34 operational MI-24s although they had serious spare parts issues in keeping them that way. These units participated heavily in the early part of the conflict and were key in preventing the fall of Kiev. Subsequently Ukraine has essentially withdrawn these helicopters from combat, using them only in special circumstances.

The TB2 has also suffered significant attrition in this conflict. Ukraine has lost over half of the ones they started the war with and they virtually disappeared from the battle space for a while. Ukraine received a resupply of 50 TB2s in July, which changes the equation significantly. They are very useful weapons when properly used, which Ukraine has done. That does not change the fact that they are not survivable in daylight below 10k feet (+/-). As many air forces have determined, under those conditions a 12.5mm machine gun can and will hit you. Most of the shells miss, but the gunner just bangs away until you leave or he hits you. The "cure" for this was the high-speed low altitude pass. You could still get hit, but it was less probable because the gunner had less time to engage and the rapidly changing bearing makes it difficult. It became statistical (golden BB). Radar directed (or later optically tracked) automatic cannons (eg. Gepards, ZSU-23) do not suffer from that problem and will get you if they are present. Subsequently, MANPADS made such an approach even more untenable.

The bombing accuracy of such an approach is also problematic. Precision weapons are hard to target while going like mad and being shot at. If you stay on a straight line, hitting you is easy. CAS is hard to do when a small mistakes in drop point produces blue-on-blue. Even best case, the aircraft losses were too high to be sustainable. This is true with aircraft that can absorb some hits and that can fly "fast". The TB2 can do neither. It also can't "jink" much which makes it an easy target. 12.5mm would tear them up. It would be gross misuse of assets to try. I am kind of assuming Russian MANPADS can't lock up a TB2 because it's heat signature is too low and for some other reasons. If that isn't true, things just get worse.

Let the TB2s do their thing at night and at their 18K ft "normal" altitude. That altitude wasn't chosen at random. There will still be some losses due to Russian air defense, ECM, and malfunctions, but those losses are sustainable, if Turkey keeps shipping product.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 09-04-2022

(09-03-2022, 11:56 AM)thatboy Wrote:  This thread seems very focused on tactics and the prosecution of the war. Can I digress slightly and ask you all, who are more knowledgeable than me, what the real cause of this war was? How did we get here?

Offline, I'm in a debate with someone who is pro-Russia and they claim this whole thing traces back to Euromaidan and Victoria Nuland -- and generally the US meddling in Ukrainian politics to the point where Viktor Yanukovych abandoned the Presidency of Ukraine and fled to Russia. I'm oversimplifying it, but that seems to be the crux of it. I know Nuland was caught on tape talking about who she (or the US) would like to work with if the opposition took over from Yanukovych. Is there any evidence the US actually orchestrated any kind of coup? I don't believe so, but curious if I'm being naive or missed something.

Your friend has swallowed right wing propaganda planted by Russia and probably not just on the topic of Ukraine and Russia.  It is laughable - like roll on the floor style - that "all the way back to" stops with Victoria Nuland.  ANY credible destination for where "all the way back to" is in history, must include past efforts by Russia to control Ukraine.  They've been at odds with each other since the 1800s, maybe even before that.

Ukraine won its independence from Russia in 1991 after the Soviet Union dissolution. Putin and his advisors are motivated to put the former Soviet Union back together, and Ukraine is a significant territory to get back into the Russian fold. Anyone claiming Ukraine or the U.S. is at fault for the war is just a Russian tool.  Someone can make an argument they are in favor of Russia killing thousands of people and wrecking Ukraine to seize control of it, but don't buy this nonsense Russia is just defending itself or whatever other B.S. they spin. Victoria Nuland - LOL!!!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-04-2022

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1566408816060678145?s=20&t=qkaSZXmTmywo5sOo31jGjQ[/tweet]

More new footage from Kherson of Bayraktars in an antiarmor role, taking out tanks that are moving and entrenched. Certain that Ukraine is happier with their Bayraktars for close air support than if they had A-10s.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 09-04-2022

(09-04-2022, 04:00 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Your friend has swallowed right wing propaganda planted by Russia 

Please spare us the politicizing of trying to tie what the Russian government states to the "right wing". Sheesh.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-04-2022

(09-04-2022, 07:35 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1566408816060678145?s=20&t=qkaSZXmTmywo5sOo31jGjQ


More new footage from Kherson of Bayraktars in an antiarmor role, taking out tanks that are moving and entrenched. Certain that Ukraine is happier with their Bayraktars for close air support than if they had A-10s.

Not to belabor the point, but do you see any Ukrainian troops, or any sign of them, in these videos? I don't. I don't even see any signs of a battle., like shell holes or Russian infantry digging/dug in. What these videos show is interdiction, at best, not CAS. Valuable, but not the same thing. Remember too that you are seeing a video picture made with significant magnification, as the pixelation shows. How high is that drone when it launches?

I suspect Ukraine would accept more of anything, but FWIW in the second Gulf War the A-10s mostly operated above 10K feet using Mavericks to hit their targets. When they went lower they got hit by AAA and that is where they suffered their losses. That is why the USAF powers that be don't like them much. At 10K feet an F-16 is just as good (actually better) and can do other things. There are times when actual CAS is necessary. It is dangerous and will always have higher losses than other missions. The A-10 way of doing that is deemed too costly. If you can't use standoff weapons to do it, high speed hit and run is the current "school solution". That is why the A-10 got pulled from many of those missions because it is just too slow.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-04-2022

Clearly things are pretty hot in Kherson. Have seen multiple overrun Russian positions, but also some destroyed western APCs and a destroyed Bayraktar.

....

On issue of Russian motivations for the war, their internal propaganda is essentially genocidal, that Ukraine is not a real state and Ukrainians are not a real people. Their international propaganda is that NATO forced them to invade because of Western meddling. These are obviously in tension but neither are true. Putin's personal motivations are probably the biggest factor; taking Crimea was a boon for his prestige and legacy, and Ukraine's capabilities were increasing, so now was his moment to try and take Kiev. Unfortunately for him, nobody could really tell him how stupid and unrealistic that plan was, but it also demonstrates how imperative the personal was, that this was not a Russian "deep state" decision but a Putin decision.

I think it's probably ancillary to the topic at hand, but if you wanted to put Putin on a R/L axis he would certainly be very hard right. Not a surprise that the most extreme American RW politicians/commentators are the ones who are most against supporting Ukraine and make the most pro Russian armed forces statements (MTG, Boebert, Tucker, etc).
.....

It seems your argument is about purity of the term. Bayraktars may be not functioning in a low altitude role roving the active battlefield. But as you describe, that isn't really how CAS works today for several reasons, even for the US.

As the air arm of a combined arms maneuver, Bayraktar is probably Ukraine's best tool, even if not operating at low altitudes.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-04-2022

It seems in the Donetsk region, Ukraine crossed the Siversky Donets river to liberated Ozerne, with rumors that Yampil is now contested.  This seems like a risky operation, as holding Ozerne will be tough logistically, however maybe Ukraine is taking advantage of a spread out Russian defensive line, or possibly trying to draw troops away from other areas.  This also comes as Ukraine shows videos of raising their flag in Vysokopillia in the Kherson region. We will see if we get more news from Kherson.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-04-2022

(09-04-2022, 08:25 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  It seems your argument is about purity of the term. Bayraktars may be not functioning in a low altitude role roving the active battlefield. But as you describe, that isn't really how CAS works today for several reasons, even for the US.


As the air arm of a combined arms maneuver, Bayraktar is probably Ukraine's best tool, even if not operating at low altitudes.

TOTALLY agree. The US doesn't do CAS anymore (except for VMFA-xxx). When you are 2 miles above the FEBA that isn't "close" air support. The Army isn't happy about this at all, but that is the way it is. There are some things you can't do from up there (strafing, quickly responding to emerging targets), but there are many things you can. Bayraktars fundamentally operate that way. Their small payload is a limitation, but their relatively small size makes them more survivable.

The US relies on destroying the enemy anti-aircraft missile defenses so that they can operate at 10k+ feet basically risk-free. Ukraine and Russia can't do that. Both Ukraine and Russia lack stand-off weapons that their aircraft need to operate in such a "safe zone" if it existed. As a result, the SU-25 losses on both sides have been prohibitively large. The TB2 is not immune to missiles, but it has a relatively low radar cross section which makes detecting/hitting it more difficult. It also appears Russian missiles are not guiding on it reliably. The TB2 does have stand-off weapons. In fact, that is all it has :-). It is however vulnerable to ECM, and the Russians have had some success that way.

The TB2 also has one other big advantage. You can build more of them (or Turkey can) for relatively little money and relatively rapidly. Building 50 F-16s in a few months just isn't possible. Since you don't lose the "pilots" when a TB2 doesn't come home, the replacement airframes can go right into the fight. Of course, these airframes carry 150kg of weapons, not 7575kg.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-04-2022

(09-04-2022, 10:30 AM)Goose Wrote:  The TB2 also has one other big advantage. You can build more of them (or Turkey can) for relatively little money and relatively rapidly. Building 50 F-16s in a few months just isn't possible. Since you don't lose the "pilots" when a TB2 doesn't come home, the replacement airframes can go right into the fight. Of course, these airframes carry 150kg of weapons, not 7575kg.

https://gagadget.com/en/162193-bayraktar-kizilelma-officially-presented-a-supersonic-impact-drone-with-ukrainian-engines-which-will-be-produced-in-ukrai/

Sounds like Baykar maybe subcontracting some drone construction in Ukraine actually.

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(09-04-2022, 10:24 AM)Treefence Wrote:  It seems in the Donetsk region, Ukraine crossed the Siversky Donets river to liberated Ozerne, with rumors that Yampil is now contested.  This seems like a risky operation, as holding Ozerne will be tough logistically, however maybe Ukraine is taking advantage of a spread out Russian defensive line, or possibly trying to draw troops away from other areas.  This also comes as Ukraine shows videos of raising their flag in Vysokopillia in the Kherson region. We will see if we get more news from Kherson.

Video of Ukrainian troops crossing the Siversky Donets River

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1566441869776932865?s=20&t=3vLZ39KXPChJQUYAnbhM-Q[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-04-2022

(09-04-2022, 11:58 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

(09-04-2022, 10:24 AM)Treefence Wrote:  It seems in the Donetsk region, Ukraine crossed the Siversky Donets river to liberated Ozerne, with rumors that Yampil is now contested.  This seems like a risky operation, as holding Ozerne will be tough logistically, however maybe Ukraine is taking advantage of a spread out Russian defensive line, or possibly trying to draw troops away from other areas.  This also comes as Ukraine shows videos of raising their flag in Vysokopillia in the Kherson region. We will see if we get more news from Kherson.

Video of Ukrainian troops crossing the Siversky Donets River

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1566441869776932865?s=20&t=3vLZ39KXPChJQUYAnbhM-Q

Ukraine has adopted a "broad front" approach to their current offensive. While this undoubtedly isn't the way NATO forces would proceed, it may be a good fit for Ukrainian capabilities. Tying down Russian forces prevents moving reinforcements to other threatened areas. As I have noted previously, it is a very "Russian" approach, but it does have it's strengths. Attack in many places, reinforce success.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 82lsju - 09-04-2022

interesting read on some of the tech inside Russian weapons

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/239f756e2e6b49a5bec78f5c5248bf3d

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - thatboy - 09-04-2022

(09-04-2022, 04:00 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Your friend has swallowed right wing propaganda planted by Russia and probably not just on the topic of Ukraine and Russia.  It is laughable - like roll on the floor style - that "all the way back to" stops with Victoria Nuland.  ANY credible destination for where "all the way back to" is in history, must include past efforts by Russia to control Ukraine.  They've been at odds with each other since the 1800s, maybe even before that.

Ukraine won its independence from Russia in 1991 after the Soviet Union dissolution. Putin and his advisors are motivated to put the former Soviet Union back together, and Ukraine is a significant territory to get back into the Russian fold. Anyone claiming Ukraine or the U.S. is at fault for the war is just a Russian tool.  Someone can make an argument they are in favor of Russia killing thousands of people and wrecking Ukraine to seize control of it, but don't buy this nonsense Russia is just defending itself or whatever other B.S. they spin. Victoria Nuland - LOL!!!

Thanks. To be clear, this is not a friend of mine. And they are literally from Russia, I believe. So yes, they swallowed Russian propaganda.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 82lsju - 09-04-2022

(09-04-2022, 01:11 PM)thatboy Wrote:  

(09-04-2022, 04:00 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Your friend has swallowed right wing propaganda planted by Russia and probably not just on the topic of Ukraine and Russia.  It is laughable - like roll on the floor style - that "all the way back to" stops with Victoria Nuland.  ANY credible destination for where "all the way back to" is in history, must include past efforts by Russia to control Ukraine.  They've been at odds with each other since the 1800s, maybe even before that.

Ukraine won its independence from Russia in 1991 after the Soviet Union dissolution. Putin and his advisors are motivated to put the former Soviet Union back together, and Ukraine is a significant territory to get back into the Russian fold. Anyone claiming Ukraine or the U.S. is at fault for the war is just a Russian tool.  Someone can make an argument they are in favor of Russia killing thousands of people and wrecking Ukraine to seize control of it, but don't buy this nonsense Russia is just defending itself or whatever other B.S. they spin. Victoria Nuland - LOL!!!

Thanks. To be clear, this is not a friend of mine. And they are literally from Russia, I believe. So yes, they swallowed Russian propaganda.

short summary of Russia/Ukraine relationships over time

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/russia-and-ukraine-the-tangled-history-that-connects-and-divides-them

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-04-2022

More Bayraktar video from Kherson

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1566548024301592577?s=20&t=NemRbJVzdQtnUMoD7RlfMQ[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1566557906593615873?s=20&t=Bei1HoZbiQ-NVMNmAI2tvw[/tweet]

Short range air defense and infantry vehicles being targeted. Looks like they were able to take two shots at the air defense. Wut it doing?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-04-2022

(09-04-2022, 03:39 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  More Bayraktar video from Kherson
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1566557906593615873?s=20&t=Bei1HoZbiQ-NVMNmAI2tvw


Short range air defense and infantry vehicles being targeted. Looks like they were able to take two shots at the air defense. Wut it doing?

Very few air defense vehicles can look straight up. The NASAMS for instance has a maximum elevation angle of 55 degrees. AEGIS can (almost) but that was a modification added in response to Russian missile technology. Once the TB2 gets in the "cone of silence" it is home free with these vehicles. Why the second vehicle didn't move after the first one was hit is another question. Possibly the crew all ran to help their comrades in the first target. The second vehicle, whatever it was, had a significant secondary explosion.

The two vehicles didn't look similar in the IR video. The second one targeted was "brighter" and larger. That could be because of the angular aspect, but it seems a bit dubious. I really can't see how one could identify the two vehicles from the video data. Maybe they had other video/data that did.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-04-2022

FWIW Ukraine did lose a TB2 recently in Kherson Oblast, so there is still a risk.  

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1566399647505170432?s=20&t=yUgIhFVdmGQ-CBEwdyzk0g

Of note, it seems there was a TB2 strike in Donetsk are happening again.  It could be a signal that Ukraine is more willing to lose some of these, maybe because Turkey has quietly decided to help provide more, or possibly Ukraine is feeling pressure to show more results to the west.  Either way, I hope they cause the Russians nightmares...

https://twitter.com/facts_find/status/1566499321658368001?s=20&t=yUgIhFVdmGQ-CBEwdyzk0g

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-04-2022

That video is the same engagement as the second one I posted. So I guess some conflicting info as to whether Donetsk or Kherson.

Also, if you put in [tweet*] before the tweet link, and [/tweet*] after the link, but deleting the asterisks from those tags, you can embed the tweet in your post rather than just have a link.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-04-2022

(09-04-2022, 05:33 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  That video is the same engagement as the second one I posted. So I guess some conflicting info as to whether Donetsk or Kherson.

Also, if you put in [tweet*] before the tweet link, and [/tweet*] after the link, but deleting the asterisks from those tags, you can embed the tweet in your post rather than just have a link.

Yeah I saw some people saying the compilation you posed was both Kherson and Donetsk, I personally wouldn't be able to tell the difference, so it's possible TB2's are only attack in Kherson Oblast.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 09-04-2022

(09-04-2022, 08:25 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Not a surprise that the most extreme American RW politicians/commentators are the ones who are most against supporting Ukraine and make the most pro Russian armed forces statements (MTG, Boebert, Tucker, etc).

Really appreciate the wealth of knowledge, experience and opinion you've provided over the last six months. Learned a lot. Would love an opportunity to discuss and debate your political opinion above, but alas. . . .

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