Outside Topic SF Giants 2025 - Printable Version
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RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 03-17-2025
(03-17-2025, 04:20 PM)lex24 Wrote:(03-16-2025, 09:48 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: Thanks Lex, "Giants", and especially Mick for the excellent discussion of the SF Giants in the 2025 preseason/Cactus league. I've mostly been a lurker on this thread but it's been an excellent way to keep in contact with the club and how the "kids" on the Giants squad are doing.
Great stuff ... and thank you.
Jung Ho Lee getting an MRI on his back. Originally thought to be minor middle back pain. But not improving. He is one of the players they least can afford to lose. Not much OF depth. Particularly CF.
Matos and McCray. That's about it.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 03-17-2025
(03-17-2025, 04:39 PM)Mick Wrote:(03-17-2025, 04:20 PM)lex24 Wrote:(03-16-2025, 09:48 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: Thanks Lex, "Giants", and especially Mick for the excellent discussion of the SF Giants in the 2025 preseason/Cactus league. I've mostly been a lurker on this thread but it's been an excellent way to keep in contact with the club and how the "kids" on the Giants squad are doing.
Great stuff ... and thank you.
Jung Ho Lee getting an MRI on his back. Originally thought to be minor middle back pain. But not improving. He is one of the players they least can afford to lose. Not much OF depth. Particularly CF.
Matos and McCray. That's about it.
Luis Matos spring training stats: .380/.404/.540/.944. 11 RBIs and just four strikeouts in 50 AB. Leading the team with 19 hits. T2 on the team with two stolen bases.
Grant McCray spring training stats: .297/.435/.486/.921. 12 strikeouts in 37 ABs, 8 walks, 4 stolen bases. Better fielder than Matos. Also has the team's only triple.
BTW, Giants are 16-5-3. Still best in MLB.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Giants - 03-17-2025
(03-17-2025, 09:47 PM)Mick Wrote:(03-17-2025, 04:39 PM)Mick Wrote:(03-17-2025, 04:20 PM)lex24 Wrote:(03-16-2025, 09:48 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: Thanks Lex, "Giants", and especially Mick for the excellent discussion of the SF Giants in the 2025 preseason/Cactus league. I've mostly been a lurker on this thread but it's been an excellent way to keep in contact with the club and how the "kids" on the Giants squad are doing.
Great stuff ... and thank you.
Jung Ho Lee getting an MRI on his back. Originally thought to be minor middle back pain. But not improving. He is one of the players they least can afford to lose. Not much OF depth. Particularly CF.
Matos and McCray. That's about it.
Luis Matos spring training stats: .380/.404/.540/.944. 11 RBIs and just four strikeouts in 50 AB. Leading the team with 19 hits. T2 on the team with two stolen bases.
Grant McCray spring training stats: .297/.435/.486/.921. 12 strikeouts in 37 ABs, 8 walks, 4 stolen bases. Better fielder than Matos. Also has the team's only triple.
BTW, Giants are 16-5-3. Still best in MLB.
Speaking of which, The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee wrote a rather insightful article today skewering the notion that spring trading stats matter.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 03-18-2025
(03-17-2025, 10:32 PM)Giants Wrote:(03-17-2025, 09:47 PM)Mick Wrote:(03-17-2025, 04:39 PM)Mick Wrote:(03-17-2025, 04:20 PM)lex24 Wrote:(03-16-2025, 09:48 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: Thanks Lex, "Giants", and especially Mick for the excellent discussion of the SF Giants in the 2025 preseason/Cactus league. I've mostly been a lurker on this thread but it's been an excellent way to keep in contact with the club and how the "kids" on the Giants squad are doing.
Great stuff ... and thank you.
Jung Ho Lee getting an MRI on his back. Originally thought to be minor middle back pain. But not improving. He is one of the players they least can afford to lose. Not much OF depth. Particularly CF.
Matos and McCray. That's about it.
Luis Matos spring training stats: .380/.404/.540/.944. 11 RBIs and just four strikeouts in 50 AB. Leading the team with 19 hits. T2 on the team with two stolen bases.
Grant McCray spring training stats: .297/.435/.486/.921. 12 strikeouts in 37 ABs, 8 walks, 4 stolen bases. Better fielder than Matos. Also has the team's only triple.
BTW, Giants are 16-5-3. Still best in MLB.
Speaking of which, The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee wrote a rather insightful article today skewering the notion that spring trading stats matter.
No insights necessary. Everyone knows that spring training stats don't matter. And if we didn't, Lex will be only too happy to point that out... ;).
And I'd rather the Giants be 16-5 than 5-16.
Based upon a paper (link below) presented to MIT by Dan Rosenheck, a data scientist at The Economist, some spring training stats do matter, even though it is a small sample size. Home runs, BABIP, ERA, all the averages don't really matter. Different environment, uneven competition. On the other hand, strikeouts and walks do matter, because they stabilize so quickly. There's a strong correlation between spring training and the regular season with those two stats. Same with contact rates and stolen bases. Significant correlation. And, not surprisingly, they're more predictive for healthy veterans than rookies and veterans coming off of long injuries.
Looks like the most accurate are stolen bases. Giants are 17th in overall stolen bases, 21st in stolen base percentage. The Giants pitching staff have given up the fewest walks, by far. And they've struck out the second most batters. I think those are predictive stats, this is a very good pitching staff. On the hitting side, the Giants have struck out the 8th most in MLB and have the 20th most walks. Those are predictive. They have the third best OPS, 4th most HRs and fifth most runs scored, not predictive, unfortunately.
Ten year old study, 46 slides. Highly entertaining, if you like that sort of thing.
Spring Forward.pptx
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 03-21-2025
In a hitter-friendly Cactus League, Giant pitchers are dominating. Ex-Cy Young winner Robbie Ray has a 0.49 WHIP and 1.26 ERA with 19 K's and no walks. Verlander is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA, 15 K's and 4 walks. Birdsong has a 0.50 ERA with a 0.33 WHIP, 18 K's and 0 walks. Camilo Doval, 1.29 ERA, 8 K's and one walk. Landon Roupp is 0.75 WHIP, 2-0, 14 K's and one walk, albeit iwth a 3.75 ERA. Logan Webb, 3-0, 1.84 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 15 K's and two walks. Spencer Bivens, 3.27 ERA, 13 K's, one walk. Ryan Walker has a 5.40 ERA (one bad outing) but with 11 K's and one walk.
Not doing as well are last year's rotation starters Jordan Hicks (5.84) and Kyle Harrison (10.84), though their K/BB ratios are excellent (8/4 and 9/1 respectively).
Both Stanford pitchers Erik Miller and Tristan Beck are having challenging springs at 4.50 ERA and 4.70 ERA respectively. They have time to come around.
As expected, Tristan Beck and Wade Meckler were sent to the minor league camp. https://www.si.com/mlb/giants/san-francisco-giants-news/san-francisco-giants-continue-trimming-roster-latest-camp-cuts?utm_source=RSS
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Giants - 03-21-2025
(03-21-2025, 11:20 AM)Mick Wrote: In a hitter-friendly Cactus League, Giant pitchers are dominating. Ex-Cy Young winner Robbie Ray has a 0.49 WHIP and 1.26 ERA with 19 K's and no walks. Verlander is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA, 15 K's and 4 walks. Birdsong has a 0.50 ERA with a 0.33 WHIP, 18 K's and 0 walks. Camilo Doval, 1.29 ERA, 8 K's and one walk. Landon Roupp is 0.75 WHIP, 2-0, 14 K's and one walk, albeit iwth a 3.75 ERA. Logan Webb, 3-0, 1.84 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 15 K's and two walks. Spencer Bivens, 3.27 ERA, 13 K's, one walk. Ryan Walker has a 5.40 ERA (one bad outing) but with 11 K's and one walk.
Not doing as well are last year's rotation starters Jordan Hicks (5.84) and Kyle Harrison (10.84), though their K/BB ratios are excellent (8/4 and 9/1 respectively).
Both Stanford pitchers Erik Miller and Tristan Beck are having challenging springs at 4.50 ERA and 4.70 ERA respectively. They have time to come around.
I watched the game v. KC a couple days ago on MLB. Hicks looked like he is ready to go.
The biggest stat by far among those you posted - the paucity of walks. Even Doval is getting the message - stop jerking around and get the freakin’ ball over the plate!
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 03-22-2025
Kyle Harrison, sent back to the minors.
San Francisco Giants Option Former Top Prospect After Disappointing Spring
Giants now 19-6, three games ahead of the Royals, the next closest team out of 30.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Giants - 03-22-2025
No surprise re: Harrison. Birdsong and Roupp have pitched well this spring and it is better to have Harrison pitching in the rotation in Sacramento than sitting on the bench waiting for long relief opportunities. I hope KH can rediscover his fastball. It has been MIA since last summer.
In other news - Encarnacion fractured his hand on Friday trying to make a catch in the OF. He will be out for an indefinite period of time.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 03-22-2025
(03-22-2025, 03:09 PM)Giants Wrote: No surprise re: Harrison. Birdsong and Roupp have pitched well this spring and it is better to have Harrison pitching in the rotation in Sacramento than sitting on the bench waiting for long relief opportunities. I hope KH can rediscover his fastball. It has been MIA since last summer.
In other news - Encarnacion fractured his hand on Friday trying to make a catch in the OF. He will be out for an indefinite period of time.
Knuckle line of the ring finger on his left hand. BoMel really liked him. Great power, knows 1B, OF, DH. Encarnacion thinks it's going to be 4-5 weeks. I'm guessing Matos and McCray both make the squad. I think Matos platoons with Yaz, McCray defensive late-inning help. Flores can DH, so can Yaz.
I actually think Yaz is a pretty good player. He was nominated for a Gold Glove last year. The team nominated him for the Roberto Clemente Award last year, recognizing his commitment to supporting military veterans along with his involvement with the local nonprofit Family House. He's the driving force behind Mustache May, which raises funs to benefit Heart & Armor Foundation.
I think Doval has his head on straight and will bounce back really well this year. I think Robbie Ray is ready for a monster year, particularly with his new change-up grip.
Going to be interesting to see what happens to Max Stassi. He's hitting .300/.364/.700/1.064 and he's a plus defender. But Sam Huff looks to have the inside track on the #2 catching slot. Ditto Lou Trivino, who hasn't pitched since 2022 (Tommy John surgery). He hasn't allowed an earned run in 8 1/3rd this spring, 9 K's, 4 walks. BoMel managed him in Oakland. Wonder if he makes it.
Peguero's hitting 100+ with regularity, 101 on day one and topping out at 102. No runs in first eight appearances, 8 K's, one walk in 6 2/3rds. He won the 2025 Barney Nugent award, given to the player who excels the most in their first big league camp with the Giants.
(2) SFGiants on X: "RHP Joel Peguero has been named the 2025 Barney Nugent Award winner in a vote by #SFGiants teammates, coaches, training staff and clubhouse staff. The Barney Nugent Award is named in honor of the Giants' former athletic trainer who worked for the Club from 1993 to 2003. The https://t.co/A8MJlInffu" / X
Former Giant and Willie McCovey award winner Thairo Estrada was having a great spring for the Rockies, 14 hits in 35 ABs. He got hit by a pitch, broke his wrist, could be out for two months.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Giants - 03-22-2025
I’m guessing…
Birdsong gets the fifth spot in the rotation and Roupp is sent down.
Huff wins the backup spot and Stassi moves on (he has the right to reject an assignment to Sacramento).
Murphy is placed on the 60 day IL to make room for Trivino who wins a spot in the bullpen.
Encarnacion is placed on the 15 day IL and McCray gets his spot on the initial 26 man roster.
Miller is the only LH pitcher in the bullpen.
Webb
Verlander
Ray
Hicks
Birdsong
Bailey
Huff
Wade
Flores
Wisely
Fitzgerald
Adames
Chapman
Yaz
Matos
McCray
Lee
Ramos
Doval
Walker
Hjelle
Trivino
Miller
Bivens
Rogers
Rodriguez
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 03-22-2025
That would be consistent with my expectations. A few other questions...
Will Roupp be up before the end of April?
How much rope will Hicks get if he continues pitching poorly? Concerned about him, a little about Hjelle. I think Hjelle's pitch movement will pick up an inch or so when he's back at sea level.
Among the infielders, Chapman and Adames have the best OPS...except for Sabin Ceballos, who's crushing it...and only has two strikeouts in 17 plate appearances. He hasn't covered himself in glory in the minors, but he's only 22 and he's Ripken-sized for a shortstop. Any chance of a breakout?
Christian Koss, 27 year old, .955 OPS, 7 strikeouts, 43 appearances. Did great in AA, struggled at AAA. Anything there?
How do you think Jung Hoo Lee will do, particularly after the most recent injury?
Meckler had a hard time in spring training. Odds of success in the regular season?
Does Wilmer Flores come back strong?
Will Stanford's Erik Miller succeed this year despite the 2.000 WHIP in spring training?
So...just one lefthanded reliever? Whisenhunt had a really good spring, any chance he gets brought up?
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Giants - 03-22-2025
(03-22-2025, 07:45 PM)Mick Wrote: That would be consistent with my expectations. A few other questions...
Will Roupp be up before the end of April?
How much rope will Hicks get if he continues pitching poorly? Concerned about him, a little about Hjelle. I think Hjelle's pitch movement will pick up an inch or so when he's back at sea level.
Among the infielders, Chapman and Adames have the best OPS...except for Sabin Ceballos, who's crushing it...and only has two strikeouts in 17 plate appearances. He hasn't covered himself in glory in the minors, but he's only 22 and he's Ripken-sized for a shortstop. Any chance of a breakout?
Christian Koss, 27 year old, .955 OPS, 7 strikeouts, 43 appearances. Did great in AA, struggled at AAA. Anything there?
How do you think Jung Hoo Lee will do, particularly after the most recent injury?
Meckler had a hard time in spring training. Odds of success in the regular season?
Does Wilmer Flores come back strong?
Will Stanford's Erik Miller succeed this year despite the 2.000 WHIP in spring training?
So...just one lefthanded reliever? Whisenhunt had a really good spring, any chance he gets brought up?
IMO…
Roupp will be up only if there is an injury to or prolonged poor performance by one of the five starters. Quite frankly, I don’t expect to see any change due to poor performance (Hicks looked great in his last start) and I hope health is not an issue this early in this season. In other words, I don’t anticipate seeing any changes to the “Big 5” in April.
Under Posey, I don’t expect to see players racing back and forth on I80. I think he will take a much more measured approach to player development. Therefore, I would anticipate that Ceballos will be in Sacramento until Posey is convinced that he (or anyone else who starts the season in Sac) is ready for the bright lights of MLB. Zaidi operated on whims; Posey operates on conviction.
At best, Koss is a 4A player (see Villar).
SF needs Lee to produce. Period. He is a critical element in the lineup and CF. The Giants are counting on him to play at a level commensurate with his salary. If healthy, I like his chances to meet that expectation.
Meckler - see Koss/Villar
At the risk of sounding repetitious, if Flores stays out of the training room, he should be effective. He is a proven big league hitter. Hopefully, he can stay on the field this year (especially early in the season while Encarnacion is out).
Miller - no need to worry, spring trading training stats are meaningless ;). Once the season starts, he will be fine.
As noted earlier, Posey will have to be convinced before any player, including Whisenhunt, is called up. I don’t see that happening this year. I think it would benefit him to get a full campaign at AAA and be ready to take Verlander’s spot in the rotation next year.
Overall…. Excluding a deep pitching staff, the team is rather thin. Given the length of the season, this does not bode well for SF. 83 wins is my call.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 03-23-2025
All excellent points. I'm sticking with 90 wins and a #5 playoff wild card spot...
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Giants - 03-23-2025
The time has come for the annual Giants’ win predictions.
To date:
Mick 90
Giants 83
Feel free to chime in with your number. I’ll post a summary on Thursday.
lex24 - lex24 - 03-23-2025
80 is my number.
Birdsong 5th starter. Roupp in pen.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - cardcrimson - 03-23-2025
I really want to optimistic and venture into the 90s, but I'll stick with 88. . . .
RE: SF Giants 2025 - old spanish trail - 03-23-2025
I was dead last, I think, last season based on unbridled optimism. Agree that pitching is deep and hitting thin, so in keeping with unbridled optimism, I'll go with 92.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - lex24 - 03-23-2025
Hjelle optioned. Another indication that Birdsong gets the fifth spot and Roupp bullpen. Harrison scratched from tonight’s start. That isn’t good.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - BobK - 03-23-2025
87 wins.
RE: SF Giants 2025 - Giants - 03-23-2025
(03-23-2025, 03:43 PM)lex24 Wrote: Hjelle optioned. Another indication that Birdsong gets the fifth spot and Roupp bullpen. Harrison scratched from tonight’s start. That isn’t good.
Keeping Roupp is somewhat of a surprise to me. I think he would be better suited getting regular starts in Sacramento than periodic opportunities in SF.
Harrison - based on the decreased velocity we have seen since last summer, it does seem like something is amiss. If so, I hope they can finally identify the source of the problem and get him back on track. There is no question that he has a big league arm when healthy.