Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-08-2022

Yeah, I think that’s what they are trying to do.  I think that the roads to Izium are now susceptible to Ukrainian artillery.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-08-2022

I wonder if a major turning point of this war was Ukrainians not having to surrender in mass during their withdrawals during the Russian Luhansk offensive.  There were many times it seemed pockets were closing on many Ukrainian troops, but it never seemed to come to fruition for Russia.

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It reminds me a bit of George Washington and the continental army somehow mostly escaping from New York in the revolutionary war, that could've and likely should've been a devastating blow, and likely the end for them.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-08-2022

(09-08-2022, 12:20 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  And if the Ukrainians are dumb enough to invade into Russia, sure.  But we are talking less than 50 km here.

BC

I think you are correct if they stop now but it is unlikely that is their intent. They can get in lots of trouble well short of the Russian border if they aren't careful :-) I think that they will be careful, but you never know.

(09-08-2022, 01:00 PM)Treefence Wrote:  Not sure if this is obvious or not, but based on everything developing in the Kharkiv offensive, I get the feeling the objective is to fully cut off all logistical routes to Izium.  That's always been a major hub for Russian forces in the east.  A long way to go to achieve this, but if Ukraine could surround, and eventually take Izium, it would be a of immense proportions blow for Russians, especially if they end up having POW's in the four to five figure range. in the overall offensive.

Exactly so. To do that though they are going to have to go north quite a bit as near as I can tell. Doing that may be possible, because when you get in the enemies rear areas there aren't many formations that can fight you. There are other possible objectives as well. In situations like this if you are meeting resistance in some directions and not others, it is real tempting to go in the path of least resistance. That's fine if it helps you reach your objective. If not, it may be better to maintain a concentration of forces.

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(09-08-2022, 01:02 PM)Treefence Wrote:  I wonder if a major turning point of this war was Ukrainians not having to surrender in mass during their withdrawals during the Russian Luhansk offensive.  There were many times it seemed pockets were closing on many Ukrainian troops, but it never seemed to come to fruition for Russia.

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It reminds me a bit of George Washington and the continental army somehow mostly escaping from New York in the revolutionary war, that could've and likely should've been a devastating blow, and likely the end for them.

Ukraine did a masterful job in resisting as long as possible while not getting trapped. They fought much better than the continental army did. They had no battle of Ft. Washington or similar. I don't think retreating successfully was a "turning point" in either war, but the opposite outcomes certainly would have been.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-08-2022

The Russians are having difficulties retreating across even small rivers. In both the Kherson offensive and the Kharkiv offensive, if Ukrainian advances continue, large groups of Russian forces and equipment will be trapped by large rivers, the Dnieper in Kherson and the Oskil in Kharkiv. 
[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1567980872300900352?s=20&t=fl1iqFMtNuD6sHjLRVtVtw
[/tweet]

Ukraine has already knocked out all the bridges over the Dineper. I don't know as much about the bridge situation on the Oskil though on a map it looks like there are only really two south of Kupyansk. They should be within range of GMLRS and Ukraine has launchers in the area.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1567602372033093632?s=20&t=fl1iqFMtNuD6sHjLRVtVtw[/tweet]

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1567949516338257920?s=20&t=fl1iqFMtNuD6sHjLRVtVtw[/tweet]

And with Russians likely needing to retreat across two different rivers across the country at the same time, their already shot up engineering and bridging units will be even more stretched. Could be many prisoners, and lots more donated gear.

Not just farmland is being freed either. Over twenty villages and towns I believe in past couple days.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1567936769127063552?s=20&t=fl1iqFMtNuD6sHjLRVtVtw[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1567956230668275716?s=20&t=fl1iqFMtNuD6sHjLRVtVtw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 09-08-2022

Man, that last video was great to see.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-08-2022

Without trying to be a downer, I will note that the liberated land constitutes just under 0.2% of the land area of Ukraine and just over 2% of the area that Russia is occupying.  Hopefully it is just the start of continued pushback.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-08-2022

(09-08-2022, 04:40 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  Man, that last video was great to see.

Talk about morale advantage. Imagine you're a Ukrainian soldier on a BTR rolling through a liberated village like this on your way to go kill more Russians. Now, imagine his Russian foe, some glorified swat officer or national guardsmen defending a rear city with little entrenchment, gear that isn't working. You can't get air support. All the Russian telegram accounts you follow are talking about how the front is collapsing. 

BTW that video was not far from Kupyansk. 

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1568025426924118019?s=20&t=6R7fY6Y49MTdMRXhiE9pcg[/tweet]

Ukraine is MOVING!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-08-2022

(09-08-2022, 04:09 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  The Russians are having difficulties retreating across even small rivers. In both the Kherson offensive and the Kharkiv offensive, if Ukrainian advances continue, large groups of Russian forces and equipment will be trapped by large rivers, the Dnieper in Kherson and the Oskil in Kharkiv. 

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1567980872300900352?s=20&t=fl1iqFMtNuD6sHjLRVtVtw

Ukraine has already knocked out all the bridges over the Dineper. I don't know as much about the bridge situation on the Oskil though on a map it looks like there are only really two south of Kupyansk. They should be within range of GMLRS and Ukraine has launchers in the area.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1567602372033093632?s=20&t=fl1iqFMtNuD6sHjLRVtVtw

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1567949516338257920?s=20&t=fl1iqFMtNuD6sHjLRVtVtw

And with Russians likely needing to retreat across two different rivers across the country at the same time, their already shot up engineering and bridging units will be even more stretched. Could be many prisoners, and lots more donated gear.

Not just farmland is being freed either. Over twenty villages and towns I believe in past couple days.

Ukraine is doing a great job and I think it is becoming clear what their immediate objectives are. They may already be on them as the reporting has trouble keeping up with the advance. If Ukraine can occupy and hold Kupiansk and/or Kivsharivka, Izyum is untenable. The road and railroad from both the east and the north run through those towns.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ThicMozzarella/status/1567951124896043009/photo/1[/tweet]
From the above one can see Ukraine is following the railroad to it's junction. The advance shown here is a salient, which is very concerning.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ThicMozzarella/status/1567998913298460674/photo/1[/tweet]
says the salient is wider, but I am not sure which one (if either) is correct. This action could destabilize the entire Izyum area, as without rail service there is no food, no ammunition, and no quick reinforcement.

That said, I am not so sure how many Russians we are going to see KIA or POWs. It looks like Ukraine punched through the first line of defense and then hit air. Indeed it may be much like France in 1940. That is why I earlier said we should look at the POW count before deciding how seriously the Russians will be damaged. How much is there to be withdrawn from Izyum? Maybe not much, but whatever it is it should be either moving to protect the GLOCS or using them to get out. It may be too late already as Ukraine undoubtedly has the railroad and highway within artillery range right now, at a minimum.

The real head-scratcher about this whole situation is that, as you point out, Russia has some significant (at least in Kherson) numbers of troops with their backs to a river, the supply lines under artillery fire (at a minimum), and significant Ukrainian forces tightening the Russian perimeter daily. Supposedly there are shortages of everything, including drinking water. Yet Russia seems to be just sitting there. They aren't retreating, they aren't madly shoring up their defenses, they aren't being reinforced. They just sit there as if there is no command and control and no concern about the deteriorating situation. Russia may be "just fine" and hold on into the winter, but I for one wouldn't bet on that. It seems they are though.

(09-08-2022, 05:15 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Talk about morale advantage. Imagine you're a Ukrainian soldier on a BTR rolling through a liberated village like this on your way to go kill more Russians.

As BC said, not to be a downer but what I would hope to see is a Ukrainian E5 screaming at them to "Get back in your F****** vehicle and act like soldiers". The habit of riding on the outside of their APCs is well entrenched in the Russian military and most armies using Soviet designed equipment. It is very uncomfortable to ride in. It is difficult to fight from inside of it when necessary. It is also hard to get out of. However, if you are fighting an enemy that has lots of 155/152 mm artillery, you can be hit by H&I fire quite a distance from the front line. No warning, it just happens. Worse still, in an area your enemy just vacated, there may be stay-behinds that can actually target you. It always makes sense to remain inside the vehicle as long as possible. A direct hit kills you either way, but if you are riding on top close is absolutely devastating. You might as well be in an open truck.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 09-08-2022

(09-08-2022, 05:07 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Without trying to be a downer, I will note that the liberated land constitutes just under 0.2% of the land area of Ukraine and just over 2% of the area that Russia is occupying.  Hopefully it is just the start of continued pushback.

BC

Thanks a lot, Debbie. I did similar math, but baby steps I figured. . . .

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-08-2022

I really hope Ukraine doesn't make the mistake they've made before back in 2014, where they made some strong advances, but then ended up pushing too far and got encircled.  I'd have to assume they've learned from their mistakes, and with added western training over the years, are prepared to hold their advances.  Russia had such an advantage going into this war that they can make a lot of really dumb mistakes, and still have success, where Ukraine doesn't have the same luxury.  

Everything we've seen so far seems to hint that Russia wasn't ready for this at all, and I think the number of POW's in the Kharkiv offensive is already in the 100's, not to mention all the captured and reusable equipment.  At this point I think the two countries that have given Ukraine the most military equipment are Russia and the USSR.  

Hoping for even more good news in the morning!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-08-2022

(09-08-2022, 05:07 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Without trying to be a downer, I will note that the liberated land constitutes just under 0.2% of the land area of Ukraine and just over 2% of the area that Russia is occupying.  Hopefully it is just the start of continued pushback.

BC

True, but if it is the right 0.2% it can matter a lot. How big was the area in Virginia around Yorktown?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-08-2022

Unconfirmed at this point, but if this is true, this would be pretty incredible.  I'd imagine Ukraine would like to use him and other recent POW's as a way to get a lot (or hopefully the rest) of the Mariupol defenders, especially the high level officers.  

[Tweet][url=https://twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1567974442856513536?s=20&t=HoNg-F-KomVUc9CCVZte0w]https://twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1567974442856513536?s=20&t=HoNg-F-KomVUc9CCVZte0w[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-09-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1567952064239763459?s=46&t=9jRIsQrWhFBYf4V37ZCdiw[/tweet]

Hard not to get a little choked up.  Lots of these liberation videos popping up.

BC

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Another one:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1568128031184625665?s=46&t=9jRIsQrWhFBYf4V37ZCdiw[/tweet]

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According to ISW, Kupyansk is the objective.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-8

Quote:Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensives advanced to within 20 kilometers of Russia’s key logistical node in Kupyansk on September 8.
Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.

BC

Add: Ukrainians have made it to the outskirts of the city.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1568188443292753920?s=46&t=U5klB_XLN7UojBHg9wXlVw[/tweet]

And indeed they may have cut them off (depending on what you read there may still be one small road preventing encirclement of Kupyansk.)

[tweet]https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1568170459400634368?s=46&t=U5klB_XLN7UojBHg9wXlVw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-09-2022

Good sign… support for Ukraine remains high in Germany despite the high energy costs.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1568166376799444992?s=46&t=U5klB_XLN7UojBHg9wXlVw[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-09-2022

(09-08-2022, 07:01 PM)Treefence Wrote:  Unconfirmed at this point, but if this is true, this would be pretty incredible.  I'd imagine Ukraine would like to use him and other recent POW's as a way to get a lot (or hopefully the rest) of the Mariupol defenders, especially the high level officers.  

[Tweet][url=https://twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1567974442856513536?s=20&t=HoNg-F-KomVUc9CCVZte0w]https://twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1567974442856513536?s=20&t=HoNg-F-KomVUc9CCVZte0w[/tweet]

It seems most people are saying these are two different people, but even still, he is a LT Colonel, which is a pretty nice POW to capture.  It also seems Ukraine has captured some really nice heavy equipment, including some SAM systems, which should tell you how off guard the Russians were caught.  Given the rumors of advances, I wonder if the collapse of Izium is a matter of when not if.  Remarkable stuff going on by Ukraine, the good news continues to roll in.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 09-09-2022

BC, you are correct. Tough to not get choked up. Then to think of the hundreds of thousands sent to Russia, these people have truly suffered beyond comprehension.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-09-2022

Rumors that Russians are evacuating what they can from Izyum and Kupyansk.

What a blow from Ukraine. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/vpkivimaki/status/1568204765833609216?s=20&t=Ci2p1HffPLVdZosHz4OuKg[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - rogpodge - 09-09-2022

https://mobile.twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1568174194243915776

Grain of salt, etc., but consistent with Russian military tactics since the 20th century.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-09-2022

Early report that Kupiansk has been liberated.  Given the pace of this offensive, it seems possible, but this source obviously has a bias, and might just be trying to get ahead on the reporting to be first.  Either way, if it's true, this is another big achievement, and might be the last nail for Izyum 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1568200960865959937?s=20&t=c2xbKuIOmYSuitEA_xsBWQ[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-09-2022

Seems premature to declare Kupyansk liberated.  The Ukrainians did destroy the city, thus preventing the Russians from resupplying whatever troops are left west of the Oskil river, and preventing the Russians from leaving.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1568267855870758917?s=46&t=lyrnlKstvmwXAYsMKjKdAw[/tweet]

Looks like only a matter of time.

BC

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