Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-12-2022

I think it is a good idea to take a step back. Indeed this is a major victory for Ukraine. It appears the Russia troops, and particularly units from the occupied areas, have collapsed. However, many of the withdrawals were not in response to Ukrainian pressure. Many of them made no sense at all, as the units involved weren't supplied through the GLOCS taken by Ukraine. It was just panic. Ukraine has a big job ahead to catch up with the retreating Russians (or the Russian border) and establish a defensive line that will prevent Russian units from simply returning. Exploiting the current state of affairs (whatever that actually is) is going to require a major effort and probably lots of re-planning. This part is all good.

However, IMHO barring a change at the top in Moscow, this doesn't end this war, unfortunately. It is true that losing a battle does not necessarily lose the war. It may do that. However, this battle is not it. Russia still has intact forces occupying lots of Ukraine that didn't run. This war will not end without Putin declaring a general mobilization as a last roll of the dice (at a minimum). If Putin is going to be defeated in Ukraine, he will for sure be ousted. He has nothing to lose at that point by actually declaring war. It won't help him much, at least in the near term, but it may buy him some time. Until we see that happen, this war continues. Obviously, a change at the top removes this constraint. Putin may also do something else, like chemical weapons etc. None of us can predict that part. We can only hope his subordinates simply won't (or can't) do it.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 09-12-2022

Goose, it's also possible the west will be even more aggressive with its support for Ukraine as Russia weakens. I mean all the democratic countries Russia has f*cked with in terms of political and election interference, online propaganda, etc. may see the ROI of stepping on Russia's throat as a can't miss deal.

It's possible Putin does something really dumb that triggers a much stronger global military response. My point is a whole lot can still happen that could make things more difficult for Russia as much as and probably more than for Ukraine.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-12-2022

(09-12-2022, 07:04 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Goose, it's also possible the west will be even more aggressive with its support for Ukraine as Russia weakens. I mean all the democratic countries Russia has f*cked with in terms of political and election interference, online propaganda, etc. may see the ROI of stepping on Russia's throat as a can't miss deal.

Of all the things and motivations other "democratic" nations have to oppose Russia, IMO the things you cite here, while "true", are absolutely the LEAST motivating to help for Ukraine. You also might want to consider the effect this is having on those EU nations where utility bills have increased 500%. I have a friend in Rome who intends to burn wood this winter to heat his house because he can't afford gas. He has a well-paying job, but the rate hikes are very serious. Italy is also in much better shape than Germany, gas wise. These effects I think are much more likely to be the ones that motivate politics in the EU.

Quote:It's possible Putin does something really dumb that triggers a much stronger global military response. My point is a whole lot can still happen that could make things more difficult for Russia as much as and probably more than for Ukraine.

There are indeed many uncertainties about what the future holds. However, I see no reason to believe those uncertainties particularly favor Ukraine. If anything, I would say the opposite, unfortunately.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-12-2022

Goose, hypothetically if the rumors of negotiations of mass surrender in Kherson are true, and it is still mostly speculation, given what you've said about Putin, what would that mean?  If the Russian forces surrender and give up positions, against Putin's wishes, could that be a sign of complete collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine?  

Again, this is hypothetical, but there are more and more whispers and rumors of this being true, which is the only reason I'm allowing myself to hope for it.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-12-2022

General mobilization will get Putin nothing but more trouble. Conscripts going off to fight a losing war with old gear will have the same issues that caused a whole Russian front to abandon their gear and run in Kharkiv.

Putin is dumb but he probably knows this at least, and that's why he hasn't instituted one yet. Losing Crimea and the separatist republics will be a blow, but he has managed to pretty much eliminate other power centers in the country. A negotiated withdrawal is probably a better chance for Putin to retain power than a general draft that still ends in defeat.

It does seem like Kherson is going to fall soon. Russia has no operational reserves to reinforce this area and troops are rumored to be running out of ammo and surrendering in a patchwork fashion. 

After that it's only a question of where Ukraine decides to make their push to the Azov sea, and whether any Russians will fight knowing how many of their compatriots just turned tail and ran when they met a determined enemy. Ukraine likely has a lot of GMLRS and TB2 ammo that was ready for use in Kharkiv but quickly became unnecessary due to the rout, now the Ukrainian general staff gets the fun job of deciding when and where to deploy it!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 09-12-2022

Russia's media is publicly less than impressed:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1569070513909022720

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 09-12-2022

(09-12-2022, 07:23 AM)Goose Wrote:  There are indeed many uncertainties about what the future holds. However, I see no reason to believe those uncertainties particularly favor Ukraine. If anything, I would say the opposite, unfortunately.

- Russia has lost more soldiers in Ukraine than USSR did in Afghanistan
- Russia has no ability to generate capable and motivated fighters any longer
- Russia's fighters are poorly trained, poorly led, and undisciplined
- Ukraine's forces are better trained, more disciplined, and have stronger leadership
- Russia has crushing economic sanctions on it
- Russia is being forced to sell its oil at a discount
- Russia has no economic power backing it against Ukraine, not even China is aiding Russia in any meaningful manner
- Ukraine has strong support from several economic powers backing it against Russia

 All these factors favor Ukraine. What, exactly favors Russia?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-12-2022

(09-12-2022, 11:49 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  General mobilization will get Putin nothing but more trouble. Conscripts going off to fight a losing war with old gear will have the same issues that caused a whole Russian front to abandon their gear and run in Kharkiv.

Putin is dumb but he probably knows this at least, and that's why he hasn't instituted one yet. Losing Crimea and the separatist republics will be a blow, but he has managed to pretty much eliminate other power centers in the country. A negotiated withdrawal is probably a better chance for Putin to retain power than a general draft that still ends in defeat.

You could certainly be correct. There are several factors involved. One of them is, as you point out, whether Putin believes a general mobilization will help enough to prevent a rapid but not immediate victory by Ukraine. Even if he believes that it will, the political backlash against so doing could be considerable. This political backlash is probably much more of a deterrent than any other factor IMHO. However, there is already (and has been for a while) a very strong push from the "hawks" in Russia to take the gloves off, mobilize, crush Ukraine and end this thing. These folks aren't going to tolerate a negotiated withdrawal or anything like it. These are also the people who can overthrow Putin. Because of this, even if Putin doesn't believe full mobilization will work (and it certainly won't in the short term), he isn't going to quit without trying it. The hawk's won't let him, and without their support Putin is gone.

Quote:It does seem like Kherson is going to fall soon. Russia has no operational reserves to reinforce this area and troops are rumored to be running out of ammo and surrendering in a patchwork fashion. 

After that it's only a question of where Ukraine decides to make their push to the Azov sea, and whether any Russians will fight knowing how many of their compatriots just turned tail and ran when they met a determined enemy. Ukraine likely has a lot of GMLRS and TB2 ammo that was ready for use in Kharkiv but quickly became unnecessary due to the rout, now the Ukrainian general staff gets the fun job of deciding when and where to deploy it!

Russia is in a much worse tactical situation in Kherson than they were in the north. For a while I thought they were going to just evacuate since their initial response was so tepid. They then transferred significant reinforcements to the area. Now, due to the optics of a second significant loss being so bad, it would appear Russia is going to remain in Kherson until forced out. They may be hoping the weather will turn and slow Ukraine down around Kherson city. It is also not impossible we will see a spoiling attack by Russia.

I think we need to be realistic about what has happened in the north. We don't (well I don't anyway) know how many Russian BTGs were actually in the areas that Ukraine has overrun. It is clear the Russians are not flush with troops anywhere. Many of the troops in the north were LPR forces and therefore had almost no combat power to begin with. How much actual damage was done to Russia's military is still unknown. It is undoubtedly severe, but what it did to the actual ORBAT is still unknown. Until it is known, it is impossible to predict how much freedom of action Ukraine actually has.

I don't know what reserves Ukraine has in that area. I don't know what Ukraine intends to do about placing their restored territory in a state of defense. I don't know if Ukraine intends to apply immediate pressure to Luhansk from the north, but if I were a betting man my answer would be yes. I think Kherson is going to be decided mostly by forces that are already in place.

I still want to know where the Russian 3rd corps went. Ukraine really doesn't want such a unit to pop up in an inconvenient location. The initial destination seemed to be Donetsk.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-12-2022

The "hawks" in the Russian social media sphere definitely do want Putin to declare war and full mobilization, but I disagree that they hold much power in Russia. They are people like Igor Girkin, former separatist fighters and veterans of 2014 offensive. But the people with power in Russia mostly have it because Putin has delegated it to them. The oligarchs are not hawks, the generals are not hawks. They know or do now that the whole war was a dumb waste that individually will mostly make them poorer in the case of oligarchs, or destroy most of their good equipment and troops from the standpoint of the generals. The generals probably are the ones who MOST want Putin to withdraw.

Losing the war would certainly be destabilizing for any personalist authoritarian like Putin. But fortunately for Putin, many of the middle and upper class urban population whose support is probably most important to his rule have not been very directly affected by the war yet. A full mobilization changes that, and again would only mean more dead Russians without any change to the battlefield result.

The current Russian Army is not built to handle a rapid upscale in manpower from a draft, and even less so now that most training officers have deployed along with most of their less than 40 year old equipment.

Some possible 3rd Army reinforcements were seen deploying to Izyum area a couple days ago, and the next day were smoking wrecks. Hard to know for certain their provenance.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-12-2022

Meanwhile, in Armenia/Azerbaijan…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/caucasuswar/status/1569441464568152064?s=46&t=tCpNdZmChqnaEkewpjyjRw[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-12-2022

(09-12-2022, 03:06 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  The "hawks" in the Russian social media sphere definitely do want Putin to declare war and full mobilization, but I disagree that they hold much power in Russia. They are people like Igor Girkin, former separatist fighters and veterans of 2014 offensive. But the people with power in Russia mostly have it because Putin has delegated it to them. The oligarchs are not hawks, the generals are not hawks. They know or do now that the whole war was a dumb waste that individually will mostly make them poorer in the case of oligarchs, or destroy most of their good equipment and troops from the standpoint of the generals. The generals probably are the ones who MOST want Putin to withdraw.

I agree that the "hawks" in the social media sphere really have no power on their own, but as in our country they do have a disproportionate impact on public opinion. They do have significant power there. I am interested to know why you believe the generals are the ones who most want Putin to withdraw. Certainly they are aware that the military has performed badly. However, I think it probable that at least most of them believe their physical survival is linked to a successful conclusion of this war. If Russia has to quit, there will likely be significant social upheaval followed by a search for scapegoats. That will be them. Defeated generals have a short lifespan in Russia. If they thought Putin would get all the blame for a defeat, you might be correct, but since they know that isn't what would happen, they too need to "go for broke". For them, defeat is not an option. There are also a significant (not majority) of the military hierarchy that believe (with some justification) that Putin's meddling and insistence on personal control of tactics is a big part of the problem. If he would mobilize the country and get out of the way they think they can still win this war.

Quote:Losing the war would certainly be destabilizing for any personalist authoritarian like Putin. But fortunately for Putin, many of the middle and upper class urban population whose support is probably most important to his rule have not been very directly affected by the war yet. A full mobilization changes that, and again would only mean more dead Russians without any change to the battlefield result.

The full mobilization will indeed affect all of Russian society and will eventually erode support for this crazy war. That is probably the main reason it hasn't been done already. However, the discontent and loss of support won't happen right away. Those advocating this action will point out that operational tempo will drop during the winter which will mitigate military losses. This will (in their rose-colored glasses) give Russia time to draft, equip, and train a large military that can overrun Ukraine. This isn't a totally crazy idea, if Russia could suddenly operate their military efficiently to train the troops.

Quote:The current Russian Army is not built to handle a rapid upscale in manpower from a draft, and even less so now that most training officers have deployed along with most of their less than 40 year old equipment.

This is the set of facts that make the mobilization option a very long shot. If the training apparatus was operating "normally" and if retired troops could be called back to increase training capacity, the mobilization would have a "reasonable" chance of success. Since neither of these conditions hold, it doesn't. However, if that is your only card, you play it.

Quote:Some possible 3rd Army reinforcements were seen deploying to Izyum area a couple days ago, and the next day were smoking wrecks. Hard to know for certain their provenance.

Hopefully we will get more information as time goes on.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-12-2022

An interesting thread on the Armenia-Azerbaijan situation. Russia's military collapse could stir up a lot of burning embers in countries where they enforce the status quo. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/LaurenceBroers/status/1569456147828195328?s=20&t=VZZWKfp1L9kCzBaNPcayOw[/tweet]

In celebration of Russia losing about a division's worth of equipment while getting routed in Kharkiv.....

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1569457703004807171?s=20&t=VZZWKfp1L9kCzBaNPcayOw[/tweet]

...let's watch this very gnarly assault on a Russian fortified position by Ukrainian infantry, at close range. It's a bit grisly so viewer discretion is advised. The helmet cam operator fires an RPG at the fortification and engages Russian troops as they emerge. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/buch10_04/status/1569004669678096385?s=20&t=VZZWKfp1L9kCzBaNPcayOw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BigJohn043 - 09-12-2022

(09-12-2022, 06:47 AM)Goose Wrote:  I think it is a good idea to take a step back. Indeed this is a major victory for Ukraine. It appears the Russia troops, and particularly units from the occupied areas, have collapsed. However, many of the withdrawals were not in response to Ukrainian pressure. Many of them made no sense at all, as the units involved weren't supplied through the GLOCS taken by Ukraine. It was just panic. Ukraine has a big job ahead to catch up with the retreating Russians (or the Russian border) and establish a defensive line that will prevent Russian units from simply returning. Exploiting the current state of affairs (whatever that actually is) is going to require a major effort and probably lots of re-planning. This part is all good.

However, IMHO barring a change at the top in Moscow, this doesn't end this war, unfortunately. It is true that losing a battle does not necessarily lose the war. It may do that. However, this battle is not it. Russia still has intact forces occupying lots of Ukraine that didn't run. This war will not end without Putin declaring a general mobilization as a last roll of the dice (at a minimum). If Putin is going to be defeated in Ukraine, he will for sure be ousted. He has nothing to lose at that point by actually declaring war. It won't help him much, at least in the near term, but it may buy him some time. Until we see that happen, this war continues. Obviously, a change at the top removes this constraint. Putin may also do something else, like chemical weapons etc. None of us can predict that part. We can only hope his subordinates simply won't (or can't) do it.

FWIW, I strongly agree with this.  UA took a bunch of stuff that was lightly defended and they surprised the RA.  This is good news, but doesn't indicate yet that the RA is in rout across the battlefield.  Just in the north.

I can also see the RA retreating from Kherson to behind the Dnipro river.  Their current position makes no sense unless they can attack which they haven't done for months in the south.

Maybe the RA collapses from here.  But my guess is a long war.  A RA counter attack wouldn't shock me....

And for those thinking Putin is doomed, 75% of Russians still back the war.  They are not getting the same news we are.....

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-12-2022

There won't be a big counter attack because Russia doesn't have any significant reserve with offensive capability. Most of their best VDV troops were transferred to Kherson, where they are being slowly and systematically degraded. Their lines everywhere are not deeply defended, and often not even by regular Russian military but Wagner or separatists, so you can't exactly pull from anywhere. There's the dad's army new volunteer units. Would be cannon fodder in their first engagement.

Ukraine will choose the time and place of the major engagements for the forseeable future.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-12-2022

(09-12-2022, 08:02 PM)BigJohn043 Wrote:  UA took a bunch of stuff that was lightly defended and they surprised the RA.  This is good news, but doesn't indicate yet that the RA is in rout across the battlefield.  Just in the north.

I can also see the RA retreating from Kherson to behind the Dnipro river.  Their current position makes no sense unless they can attack which they haven't done for months in the south.

Six weeks or so ago Russia probably could have pulled in their outposts and retreated across the Dnipro. Ukraine might have been glad to see them go. Today, Russia cannot realistically do so. The tactical reason is that the Ukraine now has the bridges around Kherson in range of their artillery. While Ukraine has finally admitted they can't totally block the bridges to traffic by damaging them, it is equally true that Russia cannot use them without incurring horrific casualties. Furthermore, a withdrawal under fire is probably the most difficult military operation that exists.

The Russian units in Kherson and vicinity are a hodgepodge of different units with deficient training. Some of them are untrained. There is a shortage of POL in Kherson. The Russian BTG organization virtually assures that most of the units have not ever worked together and probably cannot reliably communicate. An attempt to withdraw would be a catastrophe. The Ukraine would interdict the river crossings, destroy the continued buildup of retreating Russians on the bridge approaches, and would be right on the heels (possibly ahead of) the rear guard leaving Kherson. It would be a massacre. On top of that, the Russians would undoubtedly be unable to blow the bridges before the Ukrainian troops arrived. For this reason, Russia is better off fighting it out where they are. At least there is the possibility Ukraine will not push fast enough and winter will save them. If they have to fight, it would at least be from prepared positions, not standing waiting their turn to run across a bridge under observed indirect fire. At that point, when they are overrun they can at least surrender. You can't surrender to an incoming artillery round.

The political reason Russia cannot abandon Kherson at the moment is that it would be yet another shock to the public demonstrating the Russian armies incompetence. Two of those in a row would be very bad. Given there is no good choice here, staying put at least allows the possibility Ukraine will not push you out. 

Quote:Maybe the RA collapses from here.  But my guess is a long war.  A RA counter attack wouldn't shock me....

A spoiling attack would actually be a good idea at this point if Russia could mount one. It doesn't have to be real successful, but if it can buy them a month or so the weather might save them. Anybodies guess whether they can pull it off, and I am sure Ukraine knows that is the "school solution" as well as Russia does. As far as a long war, who knows? Almost nothing in this war has gone exactly as predicted. I can see Russia collapsing due to Ukrainian pressure, but it probably will take a change at the top IMHO for that to happen.

Quote:And for those thinking Putin is doomed, 75% of Russians still back the war.  They are not getting the same news we are.....

You are correct that "they" aren't getting the same news we are, but it is also true that polls in Russia are meaningless. The only thing more rationed in Russia than bread is truth. I don't remember who said that, but it is always bang on. Nobody is going to answer a pollster with anything other than what they think he wants to hear. Why should they? If they tell the "truth" they may be asked to go for a cup of Putin tea. If its is a totally legitimate benign poll, no harm done by being careful.
Even more importantly, the "man in the street" will not be the one to bring Putin down (when it finally happens). Civil unrest may be used as an excuse (whether it exists or not), but it will be the FSB and their attached military units that make it actually happen. It may be quite civilized, it may be quite a violent mess, but those will be the guys who do it. After all, they are all that remains of "the center" :-).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 09-12-2022

(09-12-2022, 09:35 PM)Goose Wrote:  Even more importantly, the "man in the street" will not be the one to bring Putin down (when it finally happens). Civil unrest may be used as an excuse (whether it exists or not), but it will be the FSB and their attached military units that make it actually happen. It may be quite civilized, it may be quite a violent mess, but those will be the guys who do it. After all, they are all that remains of "the center" :-).

Getting pretty dangerous to be Putin's "friends..."

Another Putin crony dies in mystery plunge after ‘falling from boat’ in seventh suspicious Kremlin death in months | The US Sun (the-sun.com)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 09-13-2022

(09-12-2022, 09:35 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(09-12-2022, 08:02 PM)BigJohn043 Wrote:  UA took a bunch of stuff that was lightly defended and they surprised the RA.  This is good news, but doesn't indicate yet that the RA is in rout across the battlefield.  Just in the north.

I can also see the RA retreating from Kherson to behind the Dnipro river.  Their current position makes no sense unless they can attack which they haven't done for months in the south.

Six weeks or so ago Russia probably could have pulled in their outposts and retreated across the Dnipro. Ukraine might have been glad to see them go. Today, Russia cannot realistically do so. The tactical reason is that the Ukraine now has the bridges around Kherson in range of their artillery. While Ukraine has finally admitted they can't totally block the bridges to traffic by damaging them, it is equally true that Russia cannot use them without incurring horrific casualties. Furthermore, a withdrawal under fire is probably the most difficult military operation that exists.

The Russian units in Kherson and vicinity are a hodgepodge of different units with deficient training. Some of them are untrained. There is a shortage of POL in Kherson. The Russian BTG organization virtually assures that most of the units have not ever worked together and probably cannot reliably communicate. An attempt to withdraw would be a catastrophe. The Ukraine would interdict the river crossings, destroy the continued buildup of retreating Russians on the bridge approaches, and would be right on the heels (possibly ahead of) the rear guard leaving Kherson. It would be a massacre. On top of that, the Russians would undoubtedly be unable to blow the bridges before the Ukrainian troops arrived. For this reason, Russia is better off fighting it out where they are. At least there is the possibility Ukraine will not push fast enough and winter will save them. If they have to fight, it would at least be from prepared positions, not standing waiting their turn to run across a bridge under observed indirect fire. At that point, when they are overrun they can at least surrender. You can't surrender to an incoming artillery round.

The political reason Russia cannot abandon Kherson at the moment is that it would be yet another shock to the public demonstrating the Russian armies incompetence. Two of those in a row would be very bad. Given there is no good choice here, staying put at least allows the possibility Ukraine will not push you out. 

Quote:Maybe the RA collapses from here.  But my guess is a long war.  A RA counter attack wouldn't shock me....

A spoiling attack would actually be a good idea at this point if Russia could mount one. It doesn't have to be real successful, but if it can buy them a month or so the weather might save them. Anybodies guess whether they can pull it off, and I am sure Ukraine knows that is the "school solution" as well as Russia does. As far as a long war, who knows? Almost nothing in this war has gone exactly as predicted. I can see Russia collapsing due to Ukrainian pressure, but it probably will take a change at the top IMHO for that to happen.

Quote:And for those thinking Putin is doomed, 75% of Russians still back the war.  They are not getting the same news we are.....

You are correct that "they" aren't getting the same news we are, but it is also true that polls in Russia are meaningless. The only thing more rationed in Russia than bread is truth. I don't remember who said that, but it is always bang on. Nobody is going to answer a pollster with anything other than what they think he wants to hear. Why should they? If they tell the "truth" they may be asked to go for a cup of Putin tea. If its is a totally legitimate benign poll, no harm done by being careful.
Even more importantly, the "man in the street" will not be the one to bring Putin down (when it finally happens). Civil unrest may be used as an excuse (whether it exists or not), but it will be the FSB and their attached military units that make it actually happen. It may be quite civilized, it may be quite a violent mess, but those will be the guys who do it. After all, they are all that remains of "the center" :-).

Another thing that has to be considered is how much longer is the West willing to be "all in" in terms of support for the Ukraine?  Germany already seems to be balking, we have 100 million in the up coming budget for training Ukrainian pilots to fly US Aircraft, but this year's budget seems destined to be another dance of the idiots.  The Ukraine is going to need a lot more material and financial support  before this is all over.  The UK which had been a strong contributor now has a completely new set of leaders, and it doesn't seem clear how they intend to proceed.  Our continued support seems imperative.  Life is going to be tough this winter in Europe.  Will countries rollover to appease Putin in hopes he turns on the gas?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 09-13-2022

Is this one of those examples of things that will be the opposite of favoring Ukraine?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569469683178565632[/tweet]

This does come from Ukrainian Defense (and might be part of some information warfare), but truth is more valuable than propaganda when the other side lies constantly.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 09-13-2022

(09-13-2022, 07:03 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Is this one of those examples of things that will be the opposite of favoring Ukraine?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569469683178565632[/tweet]

This does come from Ukrainian Defense (and might be part of some information warfare), but truth is more valuable than propaganda when the other side lies constantly.

Two interesting articles, one on a significant equipment intel find, and the other on problems being encountered by Russian aviation.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-just-captured-one-of-russias-most-capable-aerial-electronic-warfare-pods

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/su-25-attack-jet-crash-may-point-to-wider-russian-airpower-issues

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-13-2022

Now that it's been a few days since a lot of the rumors I had posted, I think we can rule a few things out.  I think the speculation of Kherson troops surrendering imminently rumor being passed around from source to source, with little to it.  It seems likely that was either propaganda, or optimistic speculation.  

Lyman seems to be contested, but not captured by Ukraine, and Kreminna might have battling on the outskirts, but it's likely still held by Russia.  

I think all of Kharkiv Oblast has been liberated, except land East of the Oksil river, which seems to be held by Russia.  

I don't think Ukraine is assaulting Lysychansk or Sievierodonetsk directly.  

Ukraine does not hold Donetsk airport.  


If I had a guess, many people saw the rapid pace of Ukrainian gains, and starting guessing what was next to be the first to report things.

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