Chances of winning the P12 - Printable Version
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Chances of winning the P12 - BostonCard - 10-12-2015
https://twitter.com/ChantelJennings/status/653582802743459840
We are now favored to win all our remaining scheduled games, though UCLA (64%), Cal (71%) and UDFG (58%) are all tough games. We are up to a 7.3% chance of running the table (I believe including the conference championship game) and a 47% chance of winning the conference.
BC
Re: Chances of winning the P12 - Mick - 10-12-2015
Well I would certainly enjoy seeing Stanford vs. Utah at Levi Stadium on December 5 for the Pac-12 championship.
Re: Chances of winning the P12 - DC - 10-12-2015
(10-12-2015, 04:32 PM)Mick link Wrote:Well I would certainly enjoy seeing Stanford vs. Utah at Levi Stadium on December 5 for the Pac-12 championship.
Poetic justice. We messed up the symmetry of the Pac-10 in the hope of getting Texas. Texas reneged on us, and we were stuck messing up the conference and had to take Utah and Colorado. Now, Cal beats Texas, and Utah has gotten good. Karma.
Re: Chances of winning the P12 - FarmBoy - 10-13-2015
How are the game win probabilities assigned? Is that a black box or do they use a public source?
Re: Chances of winning the P12 - winflop - 10-13-2015
(10-13-2015, 02:40 AM)FarmBoy link Wrote:How are the game win probabilities assigned? Is that a black box or do they use a public source?
ESPN has something they call the Football Power Index (FPI) that they use to calculate these probabilities. Probably all based on Monte Carlo simulations.
Re: Chances of winning the P12 - washingtonismoney - 10-13-2015
(10-13-2015, 05:26 AM)garvin link Wrote:Quote:We are up to a 7.3% chance of running the table (I believe including the conference championship game) and a 47% chance of winning the conference.
I'm no mathematician, but I don't understand how we can have only a 7 percent chance of winning the conference championship game yet a 47 percent chance of winning the conference, when the latter requires the former.
7% chance of winning out -- i.e. winning all the rest of the games. We could easily go, say, 6-3 or 7-2 in-conference and win the North.