The CardBoard
The Mac Meter - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: The Mac Meter (/thread-10326.html)

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

The Mac Meter - Hank 91 - 10-20-2015

Last year I had the Monty Meter on my site, tracking Ty Montgomery's all-purpose yardage, but that fizzled. I just put up the Mac Meter. As many of noted here, McCaffrey appears to be a lock to set the Stanford record, has a good shot at the Pac-12 mark, and could even break the NCAA record. My calculations figure the twelve regular season games plus a bowl game, but there could obviously be one, or two, or even three additional games.

Anyway, here's where things stand now:

The Mac Meter
Through 6 Games:

Rushing: 844 yards
Receiving: 172 yards
Punt Ret: 22 yards
Kick Ret: 480 yards
Total: 1,518 yards
Average: 253.0 ypg

Stanford Record -- 2,234 yards (Glyn Milburn)
*Needs to Average: 102.4 ypg

Pac-12 Record -- 2,683 yards (Marqise Lee)
*Needs to Average: 166.6 ypg

NCAA Record -- 3,250 yards (Barry Sanders)
*Needs to Average: 247.6 ypg

* Assuming Stanford plays only 7 more games.

Re: The Mac Meter - FarmBoy - 10-21-2015

Hank, I suggest you put a link to your web site in your Cardboard sig so it's quickly referencable, (assuming the administrators don't have a problem with allowing that).

This really puts his performance into perspective. I had no idea he was so clearly going to break the Stanford record with a very makeable chance at breaking the Pac12. It would be a strange coincidence if the player to break Barry Sanders record was playing on the same team has his son, Barry J Sanders.

Re: The Mac Meter - Hank 91 - 10-21-2015

(10-21-2015, 05:36 AM)FarmBoy link Wrote:Hank, I suggest you put a link to your web site in your Cardboard sig so it's quickly referencable, (assuming the administrators don't have a problem with allowing that).

This really puts his performance into perspective. I had no idea he was so clearly going to break the Stanford record with a very makeable chance at breaking the Pac12. It would be a strange coincidence if the player to break Barry Sanders record was playing on the same team has his son, Barry J Sanders.

Well, this way there's a pretty good chance the old record holder would be on hand to congratulate him, which would be pretty cool. The way the NCAA has chosen to recognize its records is a bit odd, with older players not getting credit for bowl games. With the added layer of conference championship and now playoff games, we should see all the major single-season records fall in the next few years.

As for my website, there's a little globe beneath my profile picture. A click will take readers to my site.

Re: The Mac Meter - terry - 10-21-2015

(10-21-2015, 11:32 AM)Hank 91 link Wrote:The way the NCAA has chosen to recognize its records is a bit odd, with older players not getting credit for bowl games. With the added layer of conference championship and now playoff games, we should see all the major single-season records fall in the next few years.

For many years, bowl games were not included in college football statistics and record books.

The NCAA changed this policy in 2002 to include bowl games in the official statistics going forward. The NCAA's new policy was not retroactive. So, the NCAA did not go back and add bowl game totals to its pre-2002 statistics and records.

However, a number of conferences and schools decided to go back and add pre-2002 bowl game stats to their records. The Pac-12 and a number of its members were among those making retroactive changes. As a result, the NCAA record book differs from the record books of various schools and conferences. For example, the NCAA says Barry Sanders holds the single-season all-purpose yardage record with 3,250 yards in 1988. But that doesn't include Sanders' stats from the Holiday Bowl. Oklahoma State's record book says Sanders had 3,526 all-purpose yards that year.

I once asked someone in the NCAA's statistics office about these discrepancies. They said they would prefer to have conferences and schools follow the NCAA's approach, but cannot force them to do so.

For quite a while, Stanford followed the NCAA's approach and did not revise its pre-2002 records to include bowl games. I assume that decision was made by Gary Migdol, Stanford's SID in 2002. That policy continued under Migdol's successor, Jim Young. Stanford's records during this time were consistent with the NCAA's records, but differed from the Pac-12's records.

Stanford changed its policy in late 2012. Jim Young was gone and the SID position was vacant, with Alan George and Mike Eubanks covering the SID's football responsibilities. Alan, Mike, and Bernard Muir decided Stanford should add pre-2002 bowl game stats to its record book. (The immediate impetus for this change was Stepfan Taylor's pursuit of Darrin Nelson's career rushing record, which was 4,033 yards without bowl games but became 4,169 yards with bowls added.) The 2013 media guide was the first record book to include all of Stanford's revised statistics and records.

Now, Stanford's records are consistent with the Pac-12's records, as they include pre-2002 bowl game stats. But Stanford's records are not consistent with the NCAA's records. We just have to live with the inconsistency, I guess.

Re: The Mac Meter - Hank 91 - 10-21-2015

Thanks, Terry, for this detailed explanation on the Stanford switch.

Re: The Mac Meter - French Rage - 10-21-2015

I was wondering about Taylor's career yards back in 2012.  I thought he had broken the record during the first UCLA game, but they didn't say anything about it.  Then it happened later, I forget which game.  How late in the season did they make the change?

Re: The Mac Meter - terry - 10-21-2015

(10-21-2015, 01:04 PM)French Rage link Wrote:I was wondering about Taylor's career yards back in 2012.  I thought he had broken the record during the first UCLA game, but they didn't say anything about it.  Then it happened later, I forget which game.  How late in the season did they make the change?

Stanford changed its record book policy during the week of Thanksgiving in 2012. At that point, after 11 games, Stepfan Taylor had 3,992 career rushing yards. Darrin Nelson's school record always had been listed as 4,033 yards, so Taylor was 41 yards away from the record.

Somebody noticed that the Pac-12 was listing Nelson's rushing total as 4,169 yards, compared to Stanford's figure of 4,033 yards. That was because the Pac-12 had retroactively added pre-2002 bowl games, while Stanford, following the NCAA's guidance, had not done that.

The people who had made Stanford's decision not to retroactively add old bowl games were Gary Migdol and Jim Young. They were gone and weren't around to explain what they had done. At that point, I was the closest thing Stanford had to an institutional memory on this issue. I had been helping out with Stanford's stats and record book for several years, which I continue to do. I was familiar with the NCAA's approach, the Pac-12's approach, and what Migdol and Young had decided.

I was involved in a series of phone calls on this issue during the week of Thanksgiving. The issue was somewhat urgent and couldn't be postponed until the off-season because Taylor was on the verge of breaking Nelson's record. After discussion, Alan George, Mike Eubanks, and Bernard Muir decided to go back and retroactively add old bowl stats to the record book. The thinking was that it was inconsistent to include Taylor's bowl games, but not Nelson's. So the record book was revised to raise Nelson's rushing total to 4,169 yards. That moved the goal line for Taylor, who now needed 177 yards to catch Nelson instead of just 41.

In the regular season finale against UCLA, Taylor ran for 142 yards, giving him 4,134 total yards. That would have been enough to break Nelson's record under the old policy, but left him 35 yards short under the new policy. Taylor broke the record the following week in the conference championship game, then added some more yardage in the Rose Bowl. He ended up with 4,300 yards.

When Stanford changed Nelson's yardage total, some articles incorrectly claimed that Stanford had found a mistake in its records. That wasn't true. Stanford, following the NCAA's approach, previously had deliberately chosen not to retroactively add old bowl game stats. Stanford changed that policy, which resulted in a number of changes throughout the record book. Stanford wasn't correcting a mistake. It was implementing a new policy.

Re: The Mac Meter - French Rage - 10-21-2015

(10-21-2015, 04:01 PM)terry link Wrote:[quote author=French Rage link=topic=13278.msg136051#msg136051 date=1445457885]
I was wondering about Taylor's career yards back in 2012.  I thought he had broken the record during the first UCLA game, but they didn't say anything about it.  Then it happened later, I forget which game.  How late in the season did they make the change?

Stanford changed its record book policy during the week of Thanksgiving in 2012. At that point, after 11 games, Stepfan Taylor had 3,992 career rushing yards. Darrin Nelson's school record always had been listed as 4,033 yards, so Taylor was 41 yards away from the record.

Somebody noticed that the Pac-12 was listing Nelson's rushing total as 4,169 yards, compared to Stanford's figure of 4,033 yards. That was because the Pac-12 had retroactively added pre-2002 bowl games, while Stanford, following the NCAA's guidance, had not done that.

The people who had made Stanford's decision not to retroactively add old bowl games were Gary Migdol and Jim Young. They were gone and weren't around to explain what they had done. At that point, I was the closest thing Stanford had to an institutional memory on this issue. I had been helping out with Stanford's stats and record book for several years, which I continue to do. I was familiar with the NCAA's approach, the Pac-12's approach, and what Migdol and Young had decided.

I was involved in a series of phone calls on this issue during the week of Thanksgiving. The issue was somewhat urgent and couldn't be postponed until the off-season because Taylor was on the verge of breaking Nelson's record. After discussion, Alan George, Mike Eubanks, and Bernard Muir decided to go back and retroactively add old bowl stats to the record book. The thinking was that it was inconsistent to include Taylor's bowl games, but not Nelson's. So the record book was revised to raise Nelson's rushing total to 4,169 yards. That moved the goal line for Taylor, who now needed 177 yards to catch Nelson instead of just 41.

In the regular season finale against UCLA, Taylor ran for 142 yards, giving him 4,134 total yards. That would have been enough to break Nelson's record under the old policy, but left him 35 yards short under the new policy. Taylor broke the record the following week in the conference championship game, then added some more yardage in the Rose Bowl. He ended up with 4,300 yards.

When Stanford changed Nelson's yardage total, some articles incorrectly claimed that Stanford had found a mistake in its records. That wasn't true. Stanford, following the NCAA's approach, previously had deliberately chosen not to retroactively add old bowl game stats. Stanford changed that policy, which resulted in a number of changes throughout the record book. Stanford wasn't correcting a mistake. It was implementing a new policy.
[/quote]

Very cool to know all of this.

I remember knowing the number he needed going into UCLA, and wondering if I had messed the number up in my head.  Good to know I'm not crazy!

Re: The Mac Meter - winflop - 10-21-2015

(10-20-2015, 11:40 PM)Hank 91 link Wrote:Last year I had the Monty Meter on my site, tracking Ty Montgomery's all-purpose yardage, but that fizzled. I just put up the Mac Meter. As many of noted here, McCaffrey appears to be a lock to set the Stanford record, has a good shot at the Pac-12 mark, and could even break the NCAA record. My calculations figure the twelve regular season games plus a bowl game, but there could obviously be one, or two, or even three additional games.

Anyway, here's where things stand now:

The Mac Meter
Through 6 Games:

Rushing: 844 yards
Receiving: 172 yards
Punt Ret: 22 yards
Kick Ret: 480 yards
Total: 1,518 yards
Average: 253.0 ypg

Stanford Record -- 2,234 yards (Glyn Milburn)
*Needs to Average: 102.4 ypg

Pac-12 Record -- 2,683 yards (Marqise Lee)
*Needs to Average: 166.6 ypg

NCAA Record -- 3,250 yards (Barry Sanders)
*Needs to Average: 247.6 ypg

* Assuming Stanford plays only 7 more games.

That's awesome Hank.  I see him breaking both Stanford & Pac-12 fairly easily, but he'd have to get 5 more touches per game to have a shot at Sanders' record.  I don't see that happening.

Re: The Mac Meter - GoodGrief - 10-21-2015

Terry, thanks for all that you do for Stanford Football.

Re: The Mac Meter - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 10-21-2015

(10-21-2015, 06:54 PM)winflop link Wrote:[quote author=Hank 91 link=topic=13278.msg135993#msg135993 date=1445409631]
Last year I had the Monty Meter on my site, tracking Ty Montgomery's all-purpose yardage, but that fizzled. I just put up the Mac Meter. As many of noted here, McCaffrey appears to be a lock to set the Stanford record, has a good shot at the Pac-12 mark, and could even break the NCAA record. My calculations figure the twelve regular season games plus a bowl game, but there could obviously be one, or two, or even three additional games.

Anyway, here's where things stand now:

The Mac Meter
Through 6 Games:

Rushing: 844 yards
Receiving: 172 yards
Punt Ret: 22 yards
Kick Ret: 480 yards
Total: 1,518 yards
Average: 253.0 ypg

Stanford Record -- 2,234 yards (Glyn Milburn)
*Needs to Average: 102.4 ypg

Pac-12 Record -- 2,683 yards (Marqise Lee)
*Needs to Average: 166.6 ypg

NCAA Record -- 3,250 yards (Barry Sanders)
*Needs to Average: 247.6 ypg

* Assuming Stanford plays only 7 more games.

That's awesome Hank.  I see him breaking both Stanford & Pac-12 fairly easily, but he'd have to get 5 more touches per game to have a shot at Sanders' record.  I don't see that happening.
[/quote]

What I'm seeing is that he simply needs to continue doing what he's doing, and that's assuming there's no conference title game or playoffs.  He's currently averaging 253 and needs to average 247.6 the rest of the way.  Or have I oversimplified somewhere?  I tend to miss things.

Re: The Mac Meter - CTcard - 10-21-2015

(10-21-2015, 04:01 PM)terry link Wrote:Stanford changed its record book policy during the week of Thanksgiving in 2012. At that point, after 11 games, Stepfan Taylor had 3,992 career rushing yards. Darrin Nelson's school record always had been listed as 4,033 yards, so Taylor was 41 yards away from the record.

So, now you got me wondering if Taylor would have the record if we were only counting regular season games.

By my count he had
4300 yds - 88 (RB Wisconsin) - 177 (Fiesta) - 114 (Orange) - 5 (Sun) = 3916

So, I guess if Stanford had opted for consistency the other way around, Nelson would still have the record.

But, Bowl games really are played and it seems they ought to be included in "total" stats. Regular seasons don't have the same number of games over the years anyway.

Re: The Mac Meter - Hank 91 - 10-21-2015

(10-21-2015, 08:32 PM)ThePassionOfTheChryst link Wrote:[quote author=winflop link=topic=13278.msg136134#msg136134 date=1445478847]
[quote author=Hank 91 link=topic=13278.msg135993#msg135993 date=1445409631]
Last year I had the Monty Meter on my site, tracking Ty Montgomery's all-purpose yardage, but that fizzled. I just put up the Mac Meter. As many of noted here, McCaffrey appears to be a lock to set the Stanford record, has a good shot at the Pac-12 mark, and could even break the NCAA record. My calculations figure the twelve regular season games plus a bowl game, but there could obviously be one, or two, or even three additional games.

Anyway, here's where things stand now:

The Mac Meter
Through 6 Games:

Rushing: 844 yards
Receiving: 172 yards
Punt Ret: 22 yards
Kick Ret: 480 yards
Total: 1,518 yards
Average: 253.0 ypg

Stanford Record -- 2,234 yards (Glyn Milburn)
*Needs to Average: 102.4 ypg

Pac-12 Record -- 2,683 yards (Marqise Lee)
*Needs to Average: 166.6 ypg

NCAA Record -- 3,250 yards (Barry Sanders)
*Needs to Average: 247.6 ypg

* Assuming Stanford plays only 7 more games.

That's awesome Hank.  I see him breaking both Stanford & Pac-12 fairly easily, but he'd have to get 5 more touches per game to have a shot at Sanders' record.  I don't see that happening.
[/quote]

What I'm seeing is that he simply needs to continue doing what he's doing, and that's assuming there's no conference title game or playoffs.  He's currently averaging 253 and needs to average 247.6 the rest of the way.  Or have I oversimplified somewhere?  I tend to miss things.
[/quote]

That's correct. The biggest variable as I see it will be his kick return yardage. Montgomery's numbers were depressed by a defense that typically allowed only two or three kickoffs a game. That probably won't be the case for McCaffrey, but at a certain point people will simply stop kicking to him, which will cost him 50-100 yards per game.

Re: The Mac Meter - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 10-22-2015

(10-21-2015, 11:12 PM)Hank 91 link Wrote:That's correct. The biggest variable as I see it will be his kick return yardage. Montgomery's numbers were depressed by a defense that typically allowed only two or three kickoffs a game. That probably won't be the case for McCaffrey, but at a certain point people will simply stop kicking to him, which will cost him 50-100 yards per game.

Well, I don't know that teams will have much of a choice.  You can't kick it out of bounds, and college kickers typically aren't going to be blasting it out of the end zone.  So where will they kick it, if not to McCaffrey?  Just pooch it?

Re: The Mac Meter - FarmBoy - 10-22-2015

Against Deltha O'Neal, Ty W chose to kick it out of bounds and start Ca'l at the 35. IIRC, we kicked to DO once at the start of BG and he returned it for a TD, then we kicked it out of bonds on basically every subsequent kick off until later in the game Ty W was feeling cocky and had the kick go to DO again which resulted in another TD. THat was pretty much the Ca'l offense that Big Game.

Kicking out of bounds was the smart decision against DO, but it was a bit embarrassing to have to resort to that.

Re: The Mac Meter - Mick - 10-22-2015

I wonder what the results would be if a team opted for on sidekicks all game against a team with a superb offense?

Re: The Mac Meter - stupac2 - 10-22-2015

One thing I don't really understand about the aversion to kicking it OOB is that the 35 isn't that great of a starting position. That's about where they get it after a squib, and the average should be comparable to what a good returner can do, but with much lower variance. Is it that bad of an idea?

Although, is the mark now the 40? Sometimes I can't keep NFL and college rule differences straight.

Re: The Mac Meter - FarmBoy - 10-22-2015

Quote:One thing I don't really understand about the aversion to kicking it OOB is that the 35 isn't that great of a starting position. That's about where they get it after a squib, and the average should be comparable to what a good returner can do, but with much lower variance. Is it that bad of an idea?

I think there are two things that come into play. From my vantage point in the stands of BG (was that '97?), I felt like it could hurt the team's psyche to essentially concede that the other team is better on special teams. You're telling your players that they can't win that battle, and I can see how that could impact a team's mentality. But if you get them to buy into the math, perhaps they get over it. But 15 yards (when comapred to starting on the 20 which I think is in the minds of most football players based on the touchback) is decent field position. Assuming you kick off ~5 times agaime, you're giving up 75 yards on the game. THat's going to turn into real points.

Of course, if you're going against a great returner, there's a chance you give up even more in field position and mental edge when they break a return to your 40 or 30 yard line (or down to the 5 yard line as C Mac did last week).

Re: The Mac Meter - CTcard - 10-22-2015

(10-22-2015, 08:14 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:One thing I don't really understand about the aversion to kicking it OOB is that the 35 isn't that great of a starting position.

Well, Stanford's starting field position after UCLA kickoffs was:
S-25, U-4, S-26, S-25, S-25, S-25, S-25.
So, compared to kicking off out of bounds, that would be a net +2 yards for Stanford on the game.

Of course there are other considerations beyond that average (one great return is worth more than many kind of good returns), but I am also sure that UCLA thought they could keep McCaffrey from having a 96 yard return.

Generically, I think it's pretty easy to see why you don't want to just give up all those yards.

Re: The Mac Meter - terry - 10-22-2015

(10-22-2015, 12:38 AM)ThePassionOfTheChryst link Wrote:So where will they kick it, if not to McCaffrey?  Just pooch it?

Arizona kicked off to McCaffrey twice, and also kicked two pooch kicks that were fielded by Dalton Schultz. McCaffrey's two returns went 31 yards and 67 yards. The two pooch kicks to Schultz ended up giving Stanford possession at the 35 and 36 yard lines. Arizona would have been better off if they had pooch kicked it every time.