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Today in opponents - BostonCard - 10-22-2015

The not-quite-rock-bottom APR U (happy Outsider Fan?)/UCLA game will be interesting and will tell us a lot.  If UCLA wins (and we beat UW Saturday), it will give us a two-game lead in the Pac-12 North over Cal, Washington State (if it beats Arizona), and Oregon. It will also reaffirm the importance of our dominant win over UCLA, and suggests that our view of Cal as a somewhat improved team whose record was inflated by playing a bunch of weak teams is more or less accurate.

On the other hand, if Cal beats UCLA, it will tell us that our win over UCLA carries less currency, since that was an injury-riddled sinking ship in the midst of a 3-game losing streak who will be 4-3 (1-3 in conference), and that Cal is probably reasonably good (unless UCLA totally collapses and proceeds to lose to Colorado and/or Oregon State in the next couple weeks) and a legitimate threat in Big Game.

UCLA is favored by 4, but I expect Cal to win.  They have been good this year sacking the quarterback and gaining interceptions and are going up against an injured offensive line and a freshman quarterback who is prone to mistakes.  On defense, UCLA is "fragile".  Without Lasco, Cal's running game isn't as strong as it was, but they should still be able to run against UCLA's poor front 7.  And while UCLA's DB's are a bit better, Goff should be able to pick them apart.  I'm thinking a 40's - 30's type of game here.  But we will see how far UCLA has fallen, or if Cal is just overrated.

BC

Re: Today in opponents - Hulk01 - 10-22-2015

A Cal win might give our win over UCLA less currency, but we didn't merely beat UCLA; we lapped them. 

If Cal merely wins a tight battle--and Sagarin likes them on a neutral field by a point--it will reinforce my sense that they are a more credible team than they've been for several years, and it will tell me that even with all the injuries, UCLA is comparable to them. 

If UCLA's left tackle is out, my bet would be on Cal.  The backup didn't look good against us.  If they're missng two OLs, I'd expect Cal to win by at least a couple field goals.

Re: Today in opponents - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2015

So far UCLA has had little trouble stuffing the 59ers' run ... though the 59ers have only tried twice, albeit against a light box. (The game just started.)

Re: Today in opponents - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2015

UCLA finally stops the 59ers on their fourth third down attempt.

Re: Today in opponents - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2015

The UCLA offense is -- so far -- rolling over the, ah, vaunted 59er defense.

Re: Today in opponents - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2015

UCLA stopped themselves...with another dumb penalty, quickly becoming the hallmark of a Jim Mora team.

Also it's 3-3 now. Guessing this will be a shootout. I suppose I'll give style points to UCLA over the 59ers; they faced only one third down while moving the drive, while Goff had to bail out the 59ers a fair bit.

Re: Today in opponents - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2015

UCLA up 10-3 now. Rosen has flirted with a few turnovers but the 59ers haven't been able to seal the deal. (Ahhhhh turnover luck.) And other than that, UCLA has moved the ball quite easily.

Re: Today in opponents - FarmBoy - 10-22-2015

So far it looks like UCLA is able to slow/stop the C'al offense better than C'al is able to stop UCLA.

Both QBs look decent though.

Re: Today in opponents - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2015

Cal has caught on to UCLA's use of the stick/draw run pass option -- the Bruins would be well-advised to use their counter play.

Re: Today in opponents - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2015

Watching Soso Jamabo run...UCLA's running game won't fall off when Paul Perkins leaves.

Re: Today in opponents - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2015

UCLA up 17-3.

Re: Today in opponents - stupac2 - 10-22-2015

How did Cal fail to cover that screen? As soon as the RB motioned out, jesus cover it.

This game is going how I expected before I started looking at those FEI stats. Cal just does not seem that good.

Re: Today in opponents - thunder_chik - 10-22-2015

How do you spell "overrated"?  C*A*L

Re: Today in opponents - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2015

the 59ers try a fake punt deep in their territory, down 20-3, and fail.

Re: Today in opponents - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2015

I will give the porous 59ers defense this -- they've adjusted to UCLA's love of the slant very well.

Re: Today in opponents - Stanford_Cardinals - 10-22-2015

(10-22-2015, 06:50 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:How did Low APR U fail to cover that screen? As soon as the RB motioned out, jesus cover it.

This game is going how I expected before I started looking at those FEI stats. Low APR U just does not seem that good.

Cal's FEI results are pretty out-of-line w/ the rest of the computer rankings. I'd love to see a comparison of the predictive power of various computer rankings systems. A stats professor recently told me that he really likes the Massey-Peabody rankings--apparently they are designed to optimize out-of-sample predictive power. ESPN's PFI rankings use a similar approach to Massey-Peabody (and both have Kal at ~#25).

Re: Today in opponents - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2015

https://twitter.com/smartfootball/status/657380916411682817

One observation about Rosen: whenever they call zone-read, 59er defenders completely disrespect Rosen. You'd think he could pick up 5-7 yards by keeping it.

Re: Today in opponents - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2015

23-3. If UCLA were just a bit more ruthless this would be a complete laugher.

Re: Today in opponents - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2015

23-10 now. As I was saying about ruthlessness...

Re: Today in opponents - French Rage - 10-22-2015

CareBear with a 60yd FG to end the half!