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Fresh AP Poll - FarmDad.01 - 10-25-2015

Stanford is AP's #8, with Bama the only one-loss team ranked higher. #1 tOSU still has to face #5 MSU; #2 Baylor still has to face #3 TCU, and #4 LSU still has to face #7 Bama. So three of those teams will end up with at least one loss.

The Coaches Poll is sue out whenever...

Re: Fresh AP Poll - TheFarm07 - 10-25-2015

We jumped Alabama in the Coaches' Poll and are the highest ranked 1-loss team at #7.

Utah dropped to #14 in both polls and Ca.l dropped out of the Top 25.  UCLA is at AP#24 and Coaches #25.

Re: Fresh AP Poll - TheFarm07 - 10-25-2015

(10-25-2015, 10:34 AM)FarmDad.01 link Wrote:Stanford is AP's #8, with Bama the only one-loss team ranked higher. #1 tOSU still has to face #5 MSU; #2 Baylor still has to face #3 TCU, and #4 LSU still has to face #7 Bama. So three of those teams will end up with at least one loss.

The Coaches Poll is sue out whenever...

Both Baylor and TCU will have to face unbeaten OK State as well (who is ranked on the fringes of the Top 10) and 1-loss Oklahoma.

Ohio State still has Michigan as well.

LSU has Ole' Miss and Texas A&M as other potential tough games.

Re: Fresh AP Poll - stupac2 - 10-25-2015

The Big 12 backloaded their schedule to an absolutely insane extent. Honestly, if I were a fan of a Big 12 team I'd be pretty annoyed by that. I think all of the ranked teams play each other in the span of 4-5 weeks. That's brutal for any team and you have to think there's going to be some upsets in there.

Re: Fresh AP Poll - 82 Card - 10-25-2015

(10-25-2015, 10:55 AM)TheFarm07 link Wrote:We jumped Alabama in the Coaches' Poll and are the highest ranked 1-loss team at #7.

Utah dropped to #14 in both polls and Ca.l dropped out of the Top 25.  UCLA is at AP#24 and Coaches #25.

Stanford is the top one loss team in the ESPN power rankings. Alabama is at #7, one position ahead of Stanford, in both the AP and coaches polls.

Re: Fresh AP Poll - TheFarm07 - 10-25-2015

(10-25-2015, 11:46 AM)82 Card link Wrote:[quote author=TheFarm07 link=topic=13346.msg136956#msg136956 date=1445795752]
We jumped Alabama in the Coaches' Poll and are the highest ranked 1-loss team at #7.

Utah dropped to #14 in both polls and Ca.l dropped out of the Top 25.  UCLA is at AP#24 and Coaches #25.

Stanford is the top one loss team in the ESPN power rankings. Alabama is at #7, one position ahead of Stanford, in both the AP and coaches polls.
[/quote]

Whoops, I didn't see the heading for the ranking list.

Re: Fresh AP Poll - StanfordIndians1 - 10-25-2015

I was hoping we would jump Alabama at #7 since they have been winning but by small margins...

Re: Fresh AP Poll - stupac2 - 10-25-2015

(10-25-2015, 07:23 PM)StanfordIndians1 link Wrote:I was hoping we would jump Alabama at #7 since they have been winning but by small margins...

They're Alabama. They basically get -1 loss in rankings because of their name.

Re: Fresh AP Poll - Canalejas - 10-25-2015

(10-25-2015, 07:33 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=StanfordIndians1 link=topic=13346.msg137087#msg137087 date=1445826226]
I was hoping we would jump Alabama at #7 since they have been winning but by small margins...

They're Alabama. They basically get -1 loss in rankings because of their name.
[/quote]

Besides, don't you know that for Alabama losses don't count when they're the result of turnovers?  Imagine a world where Alabama doesn't turn the ball over.  That's why Alabama is amazing.

Re: Fresh AP Poll - FarmBoy - 10-25-2015

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2015/10/25/my-ap-top-25-ballot-the-impact-of-back-loaded-schedules/

Wilner ranking. He's getting a lot of grief for being the only voter to rank 'Bama #1.

In case you're interested, Stanford's opponents average 3.6 wins. He's pegged us #7, ahead of ND.

Re: Fresh AP Poll - CTcard - 10-25-2015

(10-25-2015, 08:08 PM)FarmBoy link Wrote:http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2015/10/25/my-ap-top-25-ballot-the-impact-of-back-loaded-schedules/

Wilner ranking. He's getting a lot of grief for being the only voter to rank 'Bama #1.

In case you're interested, Stanford's opponents average 3.6 wins. He's pegged us #7, ahead of ND.

I think it is perfectly reasonable to rank a one loss team ahead of zero loss teams if the schedule and game performances warrant it. It would have been far more interesting if Wilner had examined the cases for ... say Clemson vs Alabama rather than going for the extreme case of Baylor who has the second lowest rated SOS in Sagarin of all Power 5 teams (#102 (not #101 Wilner), tougher only than NC State's #108).

For that matter he could have discussed some other oddities:
- How Alabama passed LSU, Clemson, and Michigan State despite a close call with Tennessee while the other three had comfortable to very large wins. Is 3-4 Tennessee really that much better than 6-2 W. Kentucky, 4-3 Miami, 4-4 Indiana.
Presumably he'd just say he had made a mistake with Bama last week?
- Given that he says, " I’m reluctant to slot one team over another if there is a two-loss difference in record (5-2 over 7-0, for instance)", then why is 5-2 Texas AM ranked #17 higher than 7-0 OK State.
- one loss Florida at #5 is 3 spots higher than anyone else has them - why?
- TCU at #13 and Ok State at #18 despite playing a significantly stronger schedule than Baylor (#9) - all undefeated.

Re: Fresh AP Poll - Mick - 10-25-2015

I think Michigan will be tOSU this year.  UM lost by 2 TDs last year, they have Harbaugh this year, tOSU has been squeaking by in a few games, the game is at the Big House...I'm going to predict UM by a TD.

Re: Fresh AP Poll - Langdude - 10-25-2015

(10-25-2015, 10:58 AM)TheFarm07 link Wrote:Both Baylor and TCU will have to face unbeaten OK State as well (who is ranked on the fringes of the Top 10) and 1-loss Oklahoma.

I think that if OK State wins those, they will (justifiably) jump us in the rankings. I think if OK does, they will, too. The question is if Baylor or TCU only loses one game from those three opponents (OK State, OK, and each other), do they drop below us. Probably not, is my guess. But this is all depends on a number of variables. It will be fun to see it play out.

-m.

Re: Fresh AP Poll - CowboyIndian - 10-25-2015

(10-25-2015, 09:37 PM)Mick link Wrote:I think Michigan will be tOSU this year.

That will upset a lot of folks.

Re: Fresh AP Poll - SeattleTree - 10-26-2015

(10-25-2015, 09:57 PM)CowboyIndian link Wrote:[quote author=Mick link=topic=13346.msg137110#msg137110 date=1445834261]
I think Michigan will be tOSU this year.

That will upset a lot of folks.
[/quote]

In both Ann Arbor and Columbus!

Re: Fresh AP Poll - Mick - 10-26-2015

(10-26-2015, 07:16 AM)SeattleTree link Wrote:[quote author=CowboyIndian link=topic=13346.msg137120#msg137120 date=1445835449]
[quote author=Mick link=topic=13346.msg137110#msg137110 date=1445834261]
I think Michigan will beAT tOSU this year.

That will upset a lot of folks.
[/quote]

In both Ann Arbor and Columbus!
[/quote]

Sorry, my misteak.  I fully believe that Michigan will beat (be victorious over) Ohio State.  In football.  At the Big House.  Which is UM's football stadium.

Re: Fresh AP Poll - ColoradoTree - 10-26-2015

(10-25-2015, 08:08 PM)FarmBoy link Wrote:http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2015/10/25/my-ap-top-25-ballot-the-impact-of-back-loaded-schedules/

Wilner ranking. He's getting a lot of grief for being the only voter to rank 'Bama #1.

In case you're interested, Stanford's opponents average 3.6 wins. He's pegged us #7, ahead of ND.

As I've said elsewhere on this board, I always like how Wilner takes the time to justify his ballot, which most other AP voters really don't do.  And I also like how willing he is to move teams depending on other results.  By his own rationale, Alabama might be the #1 resume this week, but likely won't be next week.  I'm not surprised by this ranking this week, but I'd be very surprised if he keeps Alabama there over the next few weeks, as the Big 12 sorts itself out, we get Michigan State-Ohio State and Michigan-Ohio State, Clemson-FSU, and some big Pac-12 games as well.  Because his ballot is so volatile, I wouldn't be surprised to see Alabama outside his Top 4 at the end of the season even if they win out. 

Re: Fresh AP Poll - fullmetal - 10-26-2015

Squeaking by Tennessee at home is not what I expect out of a team with #1 aspirations.  But I guess Wilner's giving them a pass there...

Re: Fresh AP Poll - BostonCard - 10-26-2015

(10-25-2015, 09:34 PM)CTcard link Wrote:[quote author=FarmBoy link=topic=13346.msg137098#msg137098 date=1445828903]
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2015/10/25/my-ap-top-25-ballot-the-impact-of-back-loaded-schedules/

Wilner ranking. He's getting a lot of grief for being the only voter to rank 'Bama #1.

In case you're interested, Stanford's opponents average 3.6 wins. He's pegged us #7, ahead of ND.

I think it is perfectly reasonable to rank a one loss team ahead of zero loss teams if the schedule and game performances warrant it. It would have been far more interesting if Wilner had examined the cases for ... say Clemson vs Alabama rather than going for the extreme case of Baylor who has the second lowest rated SOS in Sagarin of all Power 5 teams (#102 (not #101 Wilner), tougher only than NC State's #108).

For that matter he could have discussed some other oddities:
- How Alabama passed LSU, Clemson, and Michigan State despite a close call with Tennessee while the other three had comfortable to very large wins. Is 3-4 Tennessee really that much better than 6-2 W. Kentucky, 4-3 Miami, 4-4 Indiana.
Presumably he'd just say he had made a mistake with Bama last week?
- Given that he says, " I’m reluctant to slot one team over another if there is a two-loss difference in record (5-2 over 7-0, for instance)", then why is 5-2 Texas AM ranked #17 higher than 7-0 OK State.
- one loss Florida at #5 is 3 spots higher than anyone else has them - why?
- TCU at #13 and Ok State at #18 despite playing a significantly stronger schedule than Baylor (#9) - all undefeated.
[/quote]

This is the sort of thing that drives people crazy about Wilner's rankings.  Ranking Baylor high is fine, if you are impressed by their margins of victory and utter dominance, even if it's of weaker teams.  Obviously, we don't know how Baylor would do against a highly ranked team, but a reasonable person can argue that even though the margins would not be as mind blowing, there's a good chance that Baylor would beat many good teams as well.  But Wilner explicitely talks about strength of schedule, and then ignores it vis-a-vis Baylor vs. OK State.  Or he talks about how he wouldn't jump a 5-2 team over a 7-0 team and then does it, several times.  He pretends that his rankings are highly logical and resume based, but in the end, he goes with the same gut feel that everyone else does with the same sort of biases that everyone else has and pretends that there is a rhyme and reason to it.

If you are going to rank undefeated teams based on resume, then you would probably go:

Clemson (#27 Sagarin SOS)
LSU (#31 SOS)
Iowa (#37 SOS)
TCU (#57 SOS)
Michigan State (#63 SOS)
Ohio State (#70 SOS)
Memphis (#71 SOS)
Ok State (#79 SOS)
Baylor (#102 SOS)
Temple (#111 SOS)
Houston (#125 SOS)

Where you insert 1 loss teams with stronger schedules, I don't know, but you'd consider
Alabama (#8 SOS)
Utah (#9 SOS)
Notre Dame (#19 SOS)
Florida (#20 SOS)
Stanford (#24 SOS)
Oklahoma (#26 SOS)

All of which have harder schedules than the toughest schedule faced by an undefeated team.  Putting Alabama close to #1 is defensible, though Clemson's #27 schedule and win over Notre Dame is probably enough to give them the top slot based solely on resume (who you've beaten).  If you add style points and margin, though, a lot gets jumbled up.

BC