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Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - OutsiderFan - 11-08-2015

Looking at how things might be trending after the TCU and LSU (bad) losses, the committee may have a path to create a sort of playoff structure within its rankings, based on who plays who in the coming weeks.  Based on what the rankings were last week, and considering this week's results, we should expect a Top 4 of:

1. Clemson
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. UDFG

This means the committee already has factored in the Big 12's week OOC schedule in its rankings by having two teams with a loss each ranked ahead of two Big 12 undefeated teams (undefeated Baylor was #6 undefeated TCU was #8 and undefeated OSU was #14 in first poll as it was).  We can also deduce the committee will only have room for a B1G team or ACC team if it is undefeated, but that isn't the case for Notre Dame, the SEC or Pac-12, because those conferences all have teams with one loss within striking distance, and paths to get into the top 4 by beating a current Top 4.  So we have:

5. Baylor - Even if it wins out, needs B1G or ACC to have 1 loss champ, or both Stanford and UDFG to have 2 losses
6. Oklahoma State - Even if it wins out, needs B1G or ACC to have 1 loss champ, or both Stanford and UDFG to have 2 losses
7. Iowa - win out and in
8. Stanford - win out and in
9. LSU - needs to win out, Alabama to lose, and beat Florida in SEC CG
10. Utah - Stanford must beat UDFG, must beat Stanford in Pac-12 CG, and need other help
11. Florida - win out, and B1G, ACC or Big 12 champs must have a loss
12. Oklahoma - Even it wins out, needs B1G and ACC to have 1 loss
13. Michigan State - Still alive, barely
14. TCU - Still alive, barely

Stanford and Iowa are the only teams not in the Top 4, but in the Top 8, who play teams that will be in the Top 4 in this week's rankings.  To me, this means Stanford and Iowa are the only teams outside of the Top 4 that control their own destinies for a playoff berth.

Assuming this is the case I'd rank them like this, so as to make the paths much more clear:

1. Clemson
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. UDFG
5. Stanford
6. Iowa
7. Baylor
8. Oklahoma State
9. Florida
10. Utah
11. LSU
12. Oklahoma
13. Michigan State
14. TCU

Bold Control destiny
Others need help

This way the committee makes clear that if Stanford and Iowa win out, they are in.  It makes clear that other conferences are valued more than the Big 12, which is totally fair, because if Stanford scheduled Lamar and UTSA like Baylor and Oklahoma State did, rather than a early roadie at Northwestern, Stanford would be undefeated and probably ranked #3.  Utah doesn't get to play UDFG like Stanford does, so it says an undefeated Big 12 team would be selcted over a 1-loss Utah.  It also makes clear how hard it will be for LSU and Oklahoma, Michigan State, and TCU to get in the playoff, but that they are still alive if they win out and get a lot of other help.

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - TreeFitty - 11-08-2015

(11-08-2015, 02:03 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Looking at how things might be trending after the TCU and LSU (bad) losses, the committee may have a path to create a sort of playoff structure within its rankings, based on who plays who in the coming weeks.  Based on what the rankings were last week, and considering this week's results, we should expect a Top 4 of:

1. Clemson
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. UDFG

This means the committee already has factored in the Big 12's week OOC schedule in its rankings by having two teams with a loss each ranked ahead of two Big 12 undefeated teams (undefeated Baylor was #6 undefeated TCU was #8 and undefeated OSU was #14 in first poll as it was).  We can also deduce the committee will only have room for a B1G team or ACC team if it is undefeated, but that isn't the case for the University of Dead Fake Girlfriends, the SEC or Pac-12, because those conferences all have teams with one loss within striking distance, and paths to get into the top 4 by beating a current Top 4.  So we have:

5. Baylor - Even if it wins out, needs B1G or ACC to have 1 loss champ, or both Stanford and UDFG to have 2 losses
6. Oklahoma State - Even if it wins out, needs B1G or ACC to have 1 loss champ, or both Stanford and UDFG to have 2 losses
7. Iowa - win out and in
8. Stanford - win out and in
9. LSU - needs to win out, Alabama to lose, and beat Florida in SEC CG
10. Utah - Stanford must beat UDFG, must beat Stanford in Pac-12 CG, and need other help
11. Florida - win out, and B1G, ACC or Big 12 champs must have a loss
12. Oklahoma - Even it wins out, needs B1G and ACC to have 1 loss

Stanford and Iowa are the only teams not in the Top 4, but in the Top 8, who play teams that will be in the Top 4 in this week's rankings.  To me, this means Stanford and Iowa are the only teams outside of the Top 4 that control their own destinies for a playoff berth.

Assuming this is the case I'd rank them like this, so as to make the paths much more clear:

1. Clemson
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. UDFG
5. Stanford
6. Iowa
7. Baylor
8. Oklahoma State
9. Florida
10. Utah
11. LSU
12. Oklahoma

Bold Control destiny
Others need help

This way the committee makes clear that if Stanford and Iowa win out, they are in.  It makes clear that other conferences are valued more than the Big 12, which is totally fair, because if Stanford scheduled Lamar and UTSA like Baylor and Oklahoma State did, rather than a early roadie at Northwestern, Stanford would be undefeated and probably ranked #3.  Utah doesn't get to play UDFG like Stanford does, so it says an undefeated Big 12 team would be selcted over a 1-loss Utah.  It also makes clear how hard it will be for LSU and Oklahoma to get in the playoff, but that they are still alive if they win out and get a lot to help.

Didn't you hear, all we're supposed to be doing this week is focusing on beating the Ducks. :)



Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - TreeFitty - 11-08-2015

I'm not clear that an undefeated Baylor that beats TCU, OK St. and OU doesn't get in over 12-1 Stanford.

Same for an undefeated OK st. that beats TCU, Baylor and OU.

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - winflop - 11-08-2015

(11-08-2015, 02:08 PM)TreeFitty link Wrote:I'm not clear that an undefeated Baylor that beats TCU, OK St. and OU doesn't get in over 12-1 Stanford.

Same for an undefeated OK st. that beats TCU, Baylor and OU.

If the CFP Committee is worth its salt, the only scenario under which a Big 12 team should make the playoff is if UDFG **AND** two other Power 5 champs have 2 losses.

No team in the Big 12  will finish the season with a win over **ANY** FBS OOC opponent with a winning record. All they are doing the rest of the way is playing against their overrated selves.

It's a complete joke that any Big 12 team is in the Top 10. Stanford has more wins over FBS opponents with winning records than the entire conference.

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - TreeFitty - 11-08-2015

(11-08-2015, 02:21 PM)winflop link Wrote:[quote author=TreeFitty link=topic=13569.msg140424#msg140424 date=1447016885]
I'm not clear that an undefeated Baylor that beats TCU, OK St. and OU doesn't get in over 12-1 Stanford.

Same for an undefeated OK st. that beats TCU, Baylor and OU.

If the CFP Committee is worth its sale, the only scenario under which a Big 12 team should make the playoff is if UDFG **AND** two other Power 5 champs have 2 losses.

No team in the Big 12  will finish the season with a win over **ANY** FBS OOC opponent with a winning record. All they are doing the rest of the way is playing against their overrated selves.

It's a complete joke that any Big 12 team is in the Top 10. Stanford has more wins over FBS opponents with winning records than the entire conference.
[/quote]

Oklahoma beat 5-4 Tennessee. and Tennessee only plays North Texas, and crappy Vandy and Scar in the next 3 weeks.

If OU wins out....one piece of your argument is gone. (but OU is a 1-loss team)

I just am not sure the committee won't yield to an unbeaten. big-12 champ. If just to prove once and for all they don't belong in  the CFP.

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - washingtonismoney - 11-08-2015

There's approximately a 0% chance an undefeated Power 5 conference team misses out on the playoff.

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - TreeFitty - 11-08-2015

(11-08-2015, 02:35 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:There's approximately a 0% chance an undefeated Power 5 conference team misses out on the playoff.

Yep, only in a world where all 5 champs are unbeaten. Or 3+ champs and ND are unbeaten.

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - OutsiderFan - 11-08-2015

The committee ruled on the Big-12 when it ranked 1-loss SEC and 1-loss UDFG ahead of all Big 12 undefeated teams in the first poll, when coaches and poll voters had them way higher.  The committee wants head-to-head matches to determine this stuff more than anything else, and it also considers strength of schedule.  Have you seen the OOC schedules for Baylor and Oklahoma State? 

Baylor has beat:
1-8 SMU
1-8 North Texas
4-5 Rice
5-5 Texas Tech
0-9 Kansas
4-4 West Virginia
3-6 Iowa State
3-5 Kansas State
21-50 overall

Not a single team with a winning record on the schedule and even the teams from G5 conferences don't have a winning record. 
Possibility to end season with 6 such wins.

Oklahoma State:
5-4 Central Michigan
6-3 Central Arkansas (FCS - doesn't count, sorry)
1-8 UTSA
4-5 Texas
3-5 Kansas State
4-4 West Virginia
0-9 Kansas
5-5 Texas Tech
8-1 TCU
30-44 overall

One win against team with winning record.  Possibility to end season with 5 such wins.

Stanford:
7-2 Northwestern
0-10 UCF - But, this team won the American and went 10-3 last year!
6-3 USC
2-7 Oregon State
5-5 Arizona
7-2 UCLA
4-5 Washington
6-3 Washington State
37-37 overall

Three wins vs. teams with winning records.  Possibility to end season with 8 such wins, and two more Top-10 wins in the last two weeks of the season.

There is no way a 1-loss Stanford is getting aced out by an undefeated Big-12 Champion.  Strength of schedule, particularly out of conference, is one of the key criteria the committee uses.  It can't be taken seriously if an undefeated Baylor or Oklahoma State beats out a 1-loss Stanford that played Top 4 UDFG and Top 20 Northwestern out of conference, when those other two played SMU, North Texas, Rice, UTSA, Central Michigan, and Central Arkansas.

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - Hulk01 - 11-08-2015

I agree.

The top four Big 12 teams will finish with a minimum of seven losses among them, simply because they have to play each other.  And those seven losses will tarnish the teams, of course, making at least three of them look much less formidable than they look now.

The teams remind me of this year's Oregon, but with better quarterbacks and the same, ten-man defenses.  The conference does not attract outstanding defensive recruits, and it shows.  It's Playstation football.



Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - stupac2 - 11-08-2015

I think that OSU last year jumping 3 spots in the final week would demonstrate that what the committee does in any given week isn't sending signals about what they'll do in the future.

That said, I would be pretty surprised if a 12-1 Stanford that finished the year with wins over two (potentially) top-10 teams gets left out, no matter what else happens. That'll be among the strongest resumes in the country.

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - Rally - 11-08-2015

Please vote in the poll above.

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - TheFarm07 - 11-08-2015

(11-08-2015, 04:38 PM)ferrari link Wrote:Please vote in the poll above.

How is a Rose bowl loss preferable to a Rose Bowl win or a semifinal loss?

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - needle - 11-08-2015

Quote: Please vote in the poll above.

It would matter to me who the opponent might be in a Rose Bowl scenario.

Michigan State or Ohio State would make for a very fun Rose Bowl.

Iowa, not so much.

I'd have to think about Michigan, as the hype would be overbearing. But probably yes.

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - Rally - 11-08-2015

(11-08-2015, 05:02 PM)TheFarm07 link Wrote:[quote author=ferrari link=topic=13569.msg140453#msg140453 date=1447025889]
Please vote in the poll above.

How is a Rose bowl loss preferable to a Rose Bowl win or a semifinal loss?
[/quote]

I don't know but someone (not me) voted for it so a valid choice I wold say.  Although I didn't vote that way I can think of reasons:  tradition, history (greatest Rose Bowl run in our history (3 in 4 years)) etc.  of course I left off semi-final win.

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - Leftcoast - 11-08-2015

I think we can assume it was a Cal Fan lurker who voted for a Rose Bowl loss.

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - dabigv13 - 11-08-2015

If an undefeated Big 12 team makes it through they will jump ND or Stanford. The bulk of their schedule is back loaded by design, so that's where their SOS come in. Remember the Pac 12 OOC results have not exactly been stellar this year. Now that Clemson won, we need a one loss Big 12 or Big 10 champion. Cross your fingers.

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - winflop - 11-08-2015

(11-08-2015, 02:35 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:There's approximately a 0% chance an undefeated Power 5 conference team misses out on the playoff.

Agree 100%.  And therein lies the problem.

(11-08-2015, 06:30 PM)dabigv link Wrote:If an undefeated Big 12 team makes it through they will jump ND or Stanford. The bulk of their schedule is back loaded by design, so that's where their SOS come in. Remember the Pac 12 OOC results have not exactly been stellar this year. Now that Clemson won, we need a one loss Big 12 or Big 10 champion. Cross your fingers.

Their SOS will get better by beating other overrated Big 12 teams who also haven't beaten a team with a winning record to date.  Here are the OOC teams that the top four Big 12 teams have played:
Central Michigan
Central Arkansas
Texas-San Antonio
SMU (2x)
Lamar
Rice
Akron
Tennessee
Tulsa
Minnesota
Stephen F. Austin

That is an absolute joke.  Tennesse is 5-4 everyone else is a garbage team or is under .500 - or both.

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - dabigv13 - 11-08-2015

Very true, but they've won those games....Wazzu lost to Portland State, remember.

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - winflop - 11-08-2015

Wazzu is not being considered for a playoff spot, and it has beaten more FBS teams with winning records that the entire Big 12 conference.

Re: Playoff Committee rankings projection for Week 2 - BostonCard - 11-08-2015

(11-08-2015, 07:12 PM)winflop link Wrote:[quote author=washingtonismoney link=topic=13569.msg140431#msg140431 date=1447018518]
There's approximately a 0% chance an undefeated Power 5 conference team misses out on the playoff.

Agree 100%.  And therein lies the problem.

(11-08-2015, 06:30 PM)dabigv link Wrote:If an undefeated Big 12 team makes it through they will jump ND or Stanford. The bulk of their schedule is back loaded by design, so that's where their SOS come in. Remember the Pac 12 OOC results have not exactly been stellar this year. Now that Clemson won, we need a one loss Big 12 or Big 10 champion. Cross your fingers.

Their SOS will get better by beating other overrated Big 12 teams who also haven't beaten a team with a winning record to date.
[/quote]

In the end, everyone winds up beating up on losing teams.  The Big 12 is highly segregated; there are 4 good teams (Baylor, Oklahoma, OK St., and TCU), three mediocre teams (Texas, Texas Tech and Iowa State), and three bad teams (West Virginia, Kansas State, and Kansas, probably the worst Power 5 team in the country).  If one of the four good teams goes 3-0 against the others, it is fair to say that that team will be worthy of a playoff, assuming it doesn't have a stumble elsewhere (Oklahoma).  If they beat up on one another, then it becomes hard to determine who is the best team, and we assume all of them are good but not great.  Our best bet would be for TCU and Oklahoma (who each already have a loss) to beat up on the others.  But if either Baylor or Oklahoma State goes undefeated, it will lay claim to a playoff spot on the basis of having beaten three teams with 9 or 10 wins.

BC