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WBB: Stanford 72 Dayton 66 in Alanna Smith coming out party! - Printable Version

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WBB: Stanford 72 Dayton 66 in Alanna Smith coming out party! - 81alum - 11-28-2015

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_2NHdRF45Y

Overview:
After yesterday's victory over Missouri State, which outscored is in the paint 30-22, we are really going to be facing a tough, tall interior defense that uses the zone to shut down the inside game.  This will be the acid test whether Tara got our kids ready to overcome a strong zone, after the Santa Clara debacle.  Either that or we had better hope for more "bombs away" with three pointers like yesterday.  (As it turned out, Dayton gave us all we could handle for three quarters.  We were only able to put them away in the fourth quarter when our three point shooting began to pick up--especially led by Lili)

Flow of the Game:
Tara started Karlie, Kaylee, Erica, Bri, and Lili, what is by now the normal starting rotation.  The first quarter started slowly, with Stanford trying to figure out how to solve the Dayton zone.  We didn't.  The treys were contested, and we have managed to shoot just 2/6 and already have five turnovers just minutes in.  The quarter finished badly, with Dayton pulling out to a 24-14 lead.  Our defense did not play well.  Dayton has gotten a number of uncontested treys.  It also seems to have been able to dribble drive to the hoop for layups, right through our defense.  Meanwhile Alanna Smith is 2/2 with treys, everyone else stone cold from range.  Erica has four baskets.  I think our offense will find a way if we can turn up the defense a few notches.

The second quarter went somewhat better.  We got some backdoor feeds to McCall.  But she missed a couple of bunnies, too.  We are already up to 8 turnovers.  But Lili has been able to feed McCall dribble-passes under the basket.  Very promising looking moves.  This half it was Dayton that caught on fire from three--making 7/19 to our 3/9.  So we go into half down 40-33.  Our 11 turnovers to their 4 did not help, but I don't see any other stats to explain our performance--mostly we are even.  We need to contest those threes--they have a point guard every bit as deadly as Karlie and she is hitting NBA treys. 

For the second half, the story will be defense.  We can win this if hold them to well under the 47% they shot in the first half.  That and taking better care of the ball.  We shall soon see.....

The second half starts fairly well, our defense does seem to improve, we give up fewer open treys.  A wonderful backdoor feed from Kailee to Roberson who makes a behind her back layup.  We claw our way to a 47-45 lead.  Alanna Smith has not been playing recently but she leads all players right now with 16 points.  I imagine we will see her back soon.  End of the third period and we are behind 53-54.  The story continues to be turnovers--we are down 17 to 8, with several illegal screens contributing.  We need to find a way to get Alanna Smith the ball more--she is 4/5 from three.  Erica is our only other major scoring threat and the third quarter was terrible for her.

Right on que, Alanna makes a trey, and Lili heats us with a couple of treys and a long two.  The fourth quarter is starting well.  Two easy layups missed by Kailee and a turnover keep Dayton in the game.  Lili starts taking over, hitting everything she throws up.  We are up 69-64 with four minutes left.  Three point shooting up to 45% now.  Lili and Alanna contributed treys and Karlie too put in a trey--the last dagger in the Dayton heart.  We chose a good time to get hot, and close out the game 72 to 66.  The second half was 39 Stanford 25 Dayton, so our defense certainly picked up.

Performances:

This was Alanna Smith's coming out party.  Led all players with 22 points, including 6/8 treys.  Add 4 rebounds, an assist, a couple of blocks, and only a single turnover and I think we have as good a performance out of a freshman I can remember in a long time.  We would not have won the game without her, and she played limited minutes from the bench.  With only two fouls, she is adjusting to the defense, and her two blocks were outstanding.  Not sure how long we can keep her out of the starting lineup.

Lili was strangely quiet in the first half, but came on strong in the second, for 19 points.  Oddly, she was point guard most of the second half.  When Bri was in, Bri was playing the 2.  She had 7 assists but 5 turnovers.  Bri had 1 assist and 4 turnovers.  Marta had 1 assist and 2 turnovers.  I get the sense that the point guard position is very unsettled.  It is point guard by committee at the moment.

Erica had a solid day.  We actually got the ball to her some of the time, and she cleaned up the O Boards reasonably well.  16 points and 9 rebounds.

Karlie played her usual solid defense and sank a couple of important treys, generating 8 points, a couple of assists, four rebounds.

Kaylee had practically an empty stat line.  Kailee got a lot of time, but missed two shots that were manufactured for her and also did not do so well with rebounding.  Kaylee and Kailee need a healthy dose of self-confidence just to get back to their prior levels of play.

Conclusion

I am pleased that we won another close game, especially pleased to see Alanna's outstanding performance, and am hopeful that our defense learned some lessons.  In a little while we will see whether tomorrow's game will be Purdue or Louisville.  Should be interesting and yet another puzzle to solve.








Re: WBB: Stanford v Dayton - CompSci87 - 11-28-2015

Dayton up 24-14 after one quarter. They are knocking down open 3s and also succeeding inside.

Re: WBB: Stanford v Dayton - fullmetal - 11-28-2015

Stanford down 7 at the half, 33-40.  Hang in there ladies!

Re: WBB: Stanford v Dayton - CompSci87 - 11-28-2015

Stanford caught up to within 2 as Dayton fell in love with the 3 and started missing. But then they started hitting again: deep 3s off the dribble in transition. Not much you can do except hope they cool off in the 2nd half.

Re: WBB: Stanford v Dayton - M T - 11-28-2015

(At half time) Not as bad as the score indicates.  We did start off slowly.  But now we're breaking down their defense.  We're not getting 3pt chances, while they are taking most of their shots as 3s.  The  3p% is Stanford: 33%, Dayton: 37% (having hit their last 4 or so, now at 7/19 for 3).

Our biggest problem (besides turnovers) is that our normal outside game is shut down.  Two players are the focus of the offense: Alana: 13pt, McCall: 14pt.  Dayton is ahead of us with their current strategy.

We lead in rebounds, even though Dayton apparently has a 6'5" player.  Yet we had 9 fewer shots, mostly due to 7 more TO than them. (7 TO in Q1, 4 in Q2;  Dayton was 3 + 1 TO)

McCall has 2 fouls, which is a concern, since she's 45% of our offense.  Dayton has one player with 3 fouls, and one with 2.


Re: WBB: Stanford v Dayton - TheFarm07 - 11-28-2015

Can Kailee Johnson miss anymore easy layups?

Re: WBB: Stanford 72 Dayton 66 - Jskass - 11-28-2015

with continued playing time, Kailee Johnson will hit those. I think this is the most playing time she's had since maybe her freshman year game against TN. Good job getting open and good defense.

Re: WBB: Stanford 72 Dayton 66 in Alanna Smith coming out party! - chimera - 11-28-2015

I assume Kailee was in there for defense.  Those misses almost cost us dearly.  She's a junior now so she should be comfortable making an open layup like those were.  Alanna was spectacular.  Can't count on that sort of shooting from her but she clearly has both a great perimeter game and an excellent inside game with some nice moves inside for scores this season so far.  I had hoped to see better from Kaylee so far but she does not look improved as a soph (so far), and Tara has been sitting her for Alanna or Kailee lately.  I thought Bird was fine.  She made some tough shots, missed a couple of makable ones, but overall, she has been a steady inside scorer and rebounder for us, a combo we did not have last year, and a big positive.  Lili in the last two quarters was great, can't ask for more (except maybe that one late TO).  Bri can be very good but right now she seems to be trying too hard, taking tough shots missing too often and too many TOs.  Marta is not quite there yet as a freshman at the point.  She looks promising but most of the minutes there will have to be experienced players, at least for a while. 

Re: WBB: Stanford 72 Dayton 66 in Alanna Smith coming out party! - 81alum - 11-28-2015

Looking over the final stats I see some interesting results.  Dayton shot 47% in the first half and 31% in the second.  Something we did at the half dramatically improved our defense.

Dayton had more points in the paint that we did 18-22, and a brobdingnagian advantage in points off turnovers 15-27.  And yes turnovers were more or less even, 13-15.  So Dayton got a lot more out of the turnovers they got than we did.



Re: WBB: Stanford 72 Dayton 66 in Alanna Smith coming out party! - M T - 11-29-2015

(Re 81alum (short post):  Turnovers were lop-sided. You apparently misread our TOs.  We had 20 (not 15) TO for which Dayton got 27 pts.  They had 13 TO for which we got 15 pts
      81alum (main post):  In the first half, as you said, Dayton hit 7 of 19 threes, while we hit 3 of 9.  But I wouldn't characterize Dayton as "caught on fire from three" when they're hitting 36.8% to our 33.3%.  Perhaps you were influenced by listening to the Dayton audio feed?
    Jskass: Kailee had a bit more playing time against Boston College last year.)

The game had a lot of bad and some good:

Bad:  While we won, we confirmed we're not a top team this year.  I suspect we're overranked at #13.  We lead by more than 2 possessions for only 45 seconds.  The game didn't turn out to be an acid test of Stanford vs a zone.

Good:  We did come back from a 12 point deficit, to win by 8.  We did this by playing better, not because the opponent had injuries or players in foul trouble.

Bad: another 20 turnover game (at least 3 on charges).  Again, I believe most of these turnovers were not due to a faster pace, but just poor ball control.

Good:  We did ok playing against taller girls (6'5": 23 min; 6'4": 21 min; 6'3": 18 min).  We got 36.7% of the rebounds under our O board and 68.4% at the defensive end. (36.7+68.4=105.1.  That means we got roughly 5% more rebounds than if the two teams were equal.)

Bad:  Our turnovers shut down our offense for the first half.  While both teams shot roughly the same (even after their streak of four 3s in a row at the end of the first half), Dayton was ahead because of more shots.  Once again our turnovers were spread around (how else could you get 20 in a game?).  Only Kailee had no turnovers while playing at least one minute!

Good:  We did pretty well in shooting % in first half (FG: 52%,  3PT: 33%).  In the second half, we bombed them from distance (44%, 53%)
Good: Our foul shooting wound up at 81%:  13 of 16.

Bad:  After being frugal with fouls in the first half (4), we had a lot more fouls in the second half(10)

Good: Individual foul trouble didn't matter for us.  Lili did wind up with 4 fouls, but the last one came right at the end of the game.  Especially good, Alanna only had 2 fouls, both in the second half.


Interesting stat:  Alanna had more points than minutes.  (I haven't figured her out.  I don't see the flashiness of an Ogwumike, nor the sheer aggressiveness of a Appel.  But she is being effective.)

Kailee should be reminded that immediately putting back an offensive rebound is NOT what you want to do in the last minute or two, when leading by less than 2 possessions.

While I am glad to get the online streaming, it is frustrating for it to be about 4 frames per second, as you can't discern details such as fouls, travels, etc.

Play with the live stats.  You do get some different ways of looking at things.  For instance, go to Trends, and then choose Shooting/Turns Reference (and then Switch to Ascending).  Unfortunately, for that screen, you can't distinguish two players with the same last name.

Re: WBB: Stanford 72 Dayton 66 in Alanna Smith coming out party! - 81alum - 11-29-2015

Thank you MT for starting a good conversation.  As always, I find your observations very useful.

(11-29-2015, 01:49 AM)MT link Wrote:(Re 81alum (short post):  Turnovers were lop-sided. You apparently misread our TOs.  We had 20 (not 15) TO for which Dayton got 27 pts.  They had 13 TO for which we got 15 pts

Mea culpa.  I did misread the line.  That makes the points off turnovers make a lot more sense.  About three charges, probably a few more ill advised entrance passes which is why our point guards all have lousy assist-to-turnover ratios these days--Lili probably being the best, and she had 7 assists to 5 turnovers.  And a lot of sloppiness.  Several screening fouls--that was reminiscent of Chattanooga and Tennessee last year.  At least they called a couple of those on Dayton too.  But it all adds up to a collection of reasons for turning the ball over.

(11-29-2015, 01:49 AM)MT link Wrote:      81alum (main post):  In the first half, as you said, Dayton hit 7 of 19 threes, while we hit 3 of 9.  But I wouldn't characterize Dayton as "caught on fire from three" when they're hitting 36.8% to our 33.3%.  Perhaps you were influenced by listening to the Dayton audio feed?
Those notes were written live with the game in the second quarter--note the paragraph opening.  At the end of the second quarter Dayton hit 4 three pointers in a row.  It seemed at the time that they had caught on fire.  It was at that moment I wrote that comment. 

(11-29-2015, 01:49 AM)MT link Wrote:The game didn't turn out to be an acid test of Stanford vs a zone.
All the pregame publicity had emphasized the Dayton zone, how they used it to shut down Maine, etc.  But I was not too sure what they were running at first.  I presumed it was some kind of loose zone with switching going on.  But then late in the second quarter the announcers said they had just switched to a zone, and it was indeed a much more obvious zone.  In any case, it does not seem to me as if anyone has really taken a page from Santa Clara yet.  It is hard to believe that Santa Clara has the personnel for an active 2-3 zone and none of these teams do.  Or is it something we are doing to prevent or discourage another Santa Clara style defense?  I am mystified.

(11-29-2015, 01:49 AM)MT link Wrote:Interesting stat:  Alanna had more points than minutes.  (I haven't figured her out.  I don't see the flashiness of an Ogwumike, nor the sheer aggressiveness of a Appel.  But she is being effective.)

Alanna plays like an international player--which she is.  That means lots of face-up jump shots and the inside-out game.  She is the perfect 3 or stretch 4.  Unlike the Ogwumikes or Appel, she should not live under the basket--that would be wasting part of her talent.  It is not that she lacks good moves there--hers are probably better than anyone on the team except McCall (perhaps) at the moment.  But unlike those posts she can hit treys and thus force opposing posts to come out to guard her, opening up the interior.  Remember Bonnie playing the stretch four last year?  Alanna can do that too, but with the added benefit of being stronger and more gifted on those occasions when she is under the basket fighting for rebounds and putting them back.

(11-29-2015, 01:49 AM)MT link Wrote:While I am glad to get the online streaming, it is frustrating for it to be about 4 frames per second, as you can't discern details such as fouls, travels, etc.
Mine was fine, almost high def.  Comcast cable, nothing special, and the feed was much clearer than many of them in the past have been for me.  I know that blurry-out look--but none of that so far from this tournament for me so far.  I think a lot depends on your local connections and the bandwidth issues in your neighborhood.  You might be better off taking a wireless laptop to various coffee houses until you find one with a faster stream.

(11-29-2015, 01:49 AM)MT link Wrote:While we won, we confirmed we're not a top team this year.  I suspect we're overranked at #13.

Well, we are not a top team yet.  Tara's teams always learn more and improve more over the course of a year than most other teams do.  Her system and coaching is simply more effective than most competitors and thus her teams often show much greater improvement over a season than we would expect.  Combine that with a dearth of experience--not a single senior starter, even the juniors are more like sophomores in experience, the greatest talent on the team being a frosh from the other side of the planet still adjusting to our funny accents--and I think there is enormous room for improvement as the year goes along.  Today's game and the coming games against Texas, Chattanooga (nearly beat Tennessee again this year), and Tennessee are going to be quite difficult for us.  I hope we can win a couple of them.  Because if the Pac 12 started right now I doubt we would finish higher than 4th.  But something tells me we will be looking at a very different team by the middle of March.  Let's hope so.


Re: WBB: Stanford 72 Dayton 66 in Alanna Smith coming out party! - M T - 11-29-2015

Watching the Texas (dual posts 6'7", 6'5") vs Tennessee (6'6" post) game...  Texas wins it by 11, pretty easily.  Those are going to be tough games.

I wish the sports networks would require their announcers to go to officiating school or at least have read the rule book.  It is clear these announcers haven't.  "Look, she's got her heel on the circle [the restricted area arc].  That should be a block!" exclaims one, with two replays of the play (at 9:42 in the 4th), when the officials (properly) called an offensive foul.  Apparently the other announcer wasn't familiar with the rules or she wouldn't have left her out to hang herself with her lack of knowledge of the rules.  The offensive player has to start her move to the basket from outside the lower defensive box, in order for the restrictive area to be in effect.  Even then, it is only secondary defenders who cannot draw a player control foul.  The announcer missed it on both parts.


Re: WBB: Stanford 72 Dayton 66 in Alanna Smith coming out party! - CompSci87 - 11-29-2015

Announcers who are constantly second-guessing the refs are a big pet peeve of mine. Especially when they're wrong. Even more specially when the announcers are homers for the opposing team and see everything through a fan's eyes. We've had that in both games of this tournament so far.

Re: WBB: Stanford 72 Dayton 66 in Alanna Smith coming out party! - 81alum - 11-29-2015

(11-29-2015, 03:57 PM)CompSci87 link Wrote:Announcers who are constantly second-guessing the refs are a big pet peeve of mine. Especially when they're wrong. Even more specially when the announcers are homers for the opposing team and see everything through a fan's eyes. We've had that in both games of this tournament so far.
It could have been worse.  There might have been no announcers at all--just a silent feed.  We've had that before. 


Re: WBB: Stanford 72 Dayton 66 in Alanna Smith coming out party! - M T - 11-29-2015

I'm sure that if KZSU was covering the game, it would be no more impartial.  I'm sure that if I tried to announce it, I'd be rather biased too. 

I used to depend so much on KZSU to cover the games.  In some sense it is unfortunate that KZSU's role is diminished because of the PAC-12 network.  Especially when the PAC-12 doesn't carry all the games, and KZSU can't afford to send an announcer.  Does anyone know how much KZSU has felt the loss of support from sports fans?

I've thought it would be interesting to use one announcer for each team, and one neutral announcer (with a mute button for the others' mikes!), and do a single feed used by both teams.  Maybe you'd have to use metal detectors to make sure no brass knuckles are smuggled in!


Re: WBB: Stanford 72 Dayton 66 in Alanna Smith coming out party! - 81alum - 11-29-2015

(11-29-2015, 04:11 PM)MT link Wrote:I'm sure that if KZSU was covering the game, it would be no more impartial.  I'm sure that if I tried to announce it, I'd be rather biased too. 

I used to depend so much on KZSU to cover the games.  In some sense it is unfortunate that KZSU's role is diminished because of the PAC-12 network.  Especially when the PAC-12 doesn't carry all the games, and KZSU can't afford to send an announcer.  Does anyone know how much KZSU has felt the loss of support from sports fans?

I've thought it would be interesting to use one announcer for each team, and one neutral announcer (with a mute button for the others' mikes!), and do a single feed used by both teams.  Maybe you'd have to use metal detectors to make sure no brass knuckles are smuggled in!
I have wondered that.  KZSU used to cover all the games.  I remember listening to them cover an away game at a tournament in Hawaii when I first heard the name Lindy LaRoque.  I think all they need is an enterprising student who wants to do the job and some wealthy donor who wants to pay their pay.  They have had quite a few pretty good announcers over the years. 

Re: WBB: Stanford 72 Dayton 66 in Alanna Smith coming out party! - BobK - 11-29-2015

Purdue has 6-6 Nora Kielser who we danced with

Re: WBB: Stanford 72 Dayton 66 in Alanna Smith coming out party! - CompSci87 - 11-29-2015

I don't mind announcers who root for the home team so much, but as a double whammy with playing amateur officiating critic instead of just telling us about what's happening and talking about the players, strategy, etc., it becomes painful.

Re: WBB: Stanford 72 Dayton 66 in Alanna Smith coming out party! - chimera - 11-29-2015

I wanted to hear so I would know the fouls and that sort of thing but had to mute the Purdue guy.  We got the announcer for all our opponents these three games.  Going on about fouls like a homer.  How could that be a foul?  Unfair.  Blah.  Blah.