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Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - amartinsu13 - 12-01-2015

http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings

The talking heads seem to think that if Bama or Clemson get upset, we'll be the first team to slide up into the #4 spot. 

That's a lot of big ifs, but there's still a (small) chance.

Beat SC, and go Gators + Tarheels!

1 Clemson 12-0
2 Alabama 11-1
3 Oklahoma 11-1
4 Iowa 12-0
5 Michigan State 11-1
6 Ohio State 11-1
7 Stanford 10-2
8 Notre Dame 10-2
9 Florida State 10-2
10 North Carolina 11-1
11 TCU 10-2
12 Baylor 9-2
13 Ole Miss 9-3
14 Northwestern 10-2
15 Michigan 9-3
16 Oregon 9-3
17 Oklahoma State 10-2
18 Florida 10-2
19 Houston 11-1
20 USC 8-4
21 LSU 8-3
22 Temple 10-2
23 Navy 9-2
24 Utah 9-3
25 Tennessee





Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - Extra Point - 12-01-2015

(12-01-2015, 06:15 PM)amartinsu13 link Wrote:The talking heads seem to think that if Bama or Clemson get upset, we'll be the first team to slide up into the #4 spot. 

That's a lot of big ifs, but there's still a (small) chance.

It is not a lot of big ifs. We just need one upset in either game!

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - stupac2 - 12-01-2015

To anyone who might wonder why, given that we're widely considered to be the "first one out" right now if we hold serve on Saturday, we're ranked #7, just remember that we don't have a conference championship. If we get one, then the "tiebreaker" between "similar" records come into play and we'd move up.

These rankings are pretty much exactly what I saw everyone predicting, so no surprises there.

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 12-01-2015

(12-01-2015, 06:25 PM)Extra Point link Wrote:[quote author=amartinsu13 link=topic=13854.msg145091#msg145091 date=1449018906]
The talking heads seem to think that if Bama or Clemson get upset, we'll be the first team to slide up into the #4 spot. 

That's a lot of big ifs, but there's still a (small) chance.

It is not a lot of big ifs. We just need one upset in either game!
[/quote]

Yep.  The ACC's spot is our way in.  It was brobdingnagian for us that UNC came in at #10 as opposed to, say, #8.

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - French Rage - 12-01-2015

There's also the question of whether winning allows us to jump OSU, with everyone feeling it does.  As one of the ESPNers pointed out, it is a great chance for the committee to show how important the CC is in their decisions.

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - Cardinal96 - 12-01-2015

Bama has probably a ~ 5% chance of losing. Clemson has a ~ 35% chance of losing.  We have a ~ 60% chance of winning.  So I calculate a ~ 23% chance of making it into the playoffs.

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - amartinsu13 - 12-01-2015

Here’s how I think things would shake up in the different upset scenarios (I’m assuming Michigan St. beats Iowa, who drops below Ohio State)

Current rankings:
1  Clemson  12-0 
2  Alabama  11-1
3  Oklahoma  11-1 
4  Iowa  12-0 
5  Michigan State  11-1 
6  Ohio State  11-1   
7  Stanford  10-2   
8  the University of Dead Fake Girlfriends  10-2   
9  Florida State  10-2   
10  North Carolina  11-1

With Clemson loss:
1  Bama 12-1
2  Okla 11-1
3  Mich St. 12-1
4  Stanford 11-2
5  Clemson 12-1
6  Ohio State  11-1 
7 North Carolina 12-1 
8  Iowa 12-1
9  the University of Dead Fake Girlfriends  10-2   
10  Florida State  10-2   

-> Stanford v Bama in Playoff
-> Oregon v Ohio State in Rose Bowl

With Bama loss:
1  Clemson  13-0 
2  Oklahoma 11-1
3  Michigan St. 12-1 
4  Stanford  11-2 
5  Alabama  11-2
6  Ohio State  11-1   
7  Iowa  12-1 
8  the University of Dead Fake Girlfriends  10-2   
9  Florida State  10-2   

-> Stanford v Clemson in Playoff
-> Oregon v Ohio State in Rose Bowl

With Clemson + Bama loss:
1  Oklahoma 11-1
2  Michigan St. 12-1
3  Stanford 11-2
4  North Carolina 12-1
5  Clemson  12-1
6  Alabama  11-2
7  Ohio State  11-1   
8  Iowa  12-1
9    the University of Dead Fake Girlfriends  10-2   
10  Florida State  10-2 

-> Stanford v Michigan St. in Playoff
-> Oregon v Ohio State in Rose Bowl

With no upsets:
1  Clemson  13-0 
2  Alabama  12-1
3  Oklahoma  11-1 
4  Michigan St  12-1
5  Stanford  11-2   
6  Ohio State  11-1   
7  Iowa  12-1 
8  the University of Dead Fake Girlfriends  10-2   
9  Florida State  10-2   

-> Stanford v Ohio St in the Rose Bowl

If we lose to SC:
I stop caring about rankings

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - CowboyIndian - 12-01-2015

(12-01-2015, 06:25 PM)Extra Point link Wrote:It is not a lot of big ifs. We just need one upset in either game!
f

Well, the biggest "if" is winning the Pac-12 Championship. Let's start there.

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 12-01-2015

(12-01-2015, 06:31 PM)CowboyIndian link Wrote:[quote author=Extra Point link=topic=13854.msg145095#msg145095 date=1449019535]
It is not a lot of big ifs. We just need one upset in either game!
f

Well, the biggest "if" is winning the Pac-12 Championship. Let's start there.
[/quote]

Nice thing about being fans, as opposed to players or staff, is that we have the luxury of getting ahead of ourselves and looking past the next opponent.

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - jacketree - 12-01-2015

Going into the last weekend of the season (outside Army-Navy) with a 25% chance of making the playoffs is pretty cool.  To say the least.  :)

Ohio State is out no matter what in my opinion.  The Big10 is just not good enough for two teams in the playoff, and Stanford's overall season resume is probably better than the Buckeyes.  Might get to test it out in the Rose Bowl, particularly if Iowa wins Saturday.  I could see Rose Bowl picking OSU over MSU if nothing else than TV ratings and recency, although Sparty traveled well to Pasadena.

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - CornFed - 12-01-2015

Well, 23% is a pretty awesome chance.  Much better than 1 in 1,000,000


https://youtu.be/KX5jNnDMfxA

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - dabigv13 - 12-01-2015

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14269857/georgia-bulldogs-name-kirby-smart-new-head-coach

Hard to imagine Florida scoring in the SEC CCG even if the Alabama defensive lineup consisted entirely of squirrels, but perhaps a bit of distraction for the Bama DC might increase the odds even a small fraction.

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - needle - 12-01-2015

Quote: Might get to test it out in the Rose Bowl, particularly if Iowa wins Saturday.  I could see Rose Bowl picking OSU over MSU if nothing else than TV ratings and recency, although Sparty traveled well to Pasadena.

Most "experts" seem to think that the team that has the highest committee ranking will go to the Rose Bowl. I think Ohio State would be ranked higher than a two-loss Michigan State team, but I do not claim to be an expert...

Quote: Basically, if the Big Ten champ is in the playoff, then the Rose Bowl will choose a replacement team. So, expect the loser of the Big Ten title game—or Ohio State, if it is ranked higher in the final College Football Playoff rankings–to likely go to the Rose Bowl. Not a bad consolation prize, huh?

http://btn.com/2015/12/01/big-ten-mailbag-how-will-rose-bowl-participant-be-decided/

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - jacketree - 12-01-2015

Wishing UGA all the success Tennessee has experienced since firing Phil Fulmer.  I see a lot of parallels.  Well, hopefully.

Someone on the Hive asked how anyone could ever do better than Richt against GT (13-2).  "Um, 14-1 or 15-0?"

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - winflop - 12-01-2015

Just win baby.

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - Treebound - 12-01-2015

(12-01-2015, 09:08 PM)jacketree link Wrote:Wishing UGA all the success Tennessee has experienced since firing Phil Fulmer.  I see a lot of parallels.  Well, hopefully.

Someone on the Hive asked how anyone could ever do better than Richt against GT (13-2).  "Um, 14-1 or 15-0?"

Sorry Jacket, I'm lost on the relevance of this to our #7 CFP ranking.  I think you went there for your undergrad?  I watched some 'reck highlights as we know Patrick, but not much else.

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - cardfan77 - 12-01-2015

These rankings means nothing until we beat SC on Saturday.  For some reason, SC scares me.  I would have been more comfortable and confident playing UCLA.    Our secondary is struggling with or without Harris.  SC has a lot of talents to take advantage of our secondary.  Hoping for a great game and a Stanford win.  Hopefully a dominating win.  I donʻt think my heart can take another close game.  #beatSCagain 

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - jacketree - 12-01-2015

(12-01-2015, 10:21 PM)Treebound link Wrote:[quote author=jacketree link=topic=13854.msg145152#msg145152 date=1449029323]
Wishing UGA all the success Tennessee has experienced since firing Phil Fulmer.  I see a lot of parallels.  Well, hopefully.

Someone on the Hive asked how anyone could ever do better than Richt against GT (13-2).  "Um, 14-1 or 15-0?"

Sorry Jacket, I'm lost on the relevance of this to our #7 CFP ranking.  I think you went there for your undergrad?  I watched some 'reck highlights as we know Patrick, but not much else.
[/quote]

About as much relevance as graphene. Zero.

Re: Stanford #7 in CFP Rankings - OutsiderFan - 12-02-2015

Of course these rankings mean something.  If Stanford was #18 right now, even with a win this weekend, Stanford would have no chance to be in the playoff.  Being ranked #7, with a conference championship game to play, Stanford has a not out of the question possibility to make it in.  Moreover, everyone is just assuming Stanford is out even if it wins the Pac-12.  The committee hasn't even declared Oklahoma is guaranteed a spot, have they?  Maybe Stanford does in fact control it's own destiny and nobody outside the committee knows it.

In any event, we can all agree on one thing.  The best thing that could possibly happen for college football this weekend is for Alabama to lose so the SEC gets left out.  That's the fastest way to get to a 6 or 8 team playoff that guarantees a playoff spot for every conference champion. 

Small Quibble - AncientCityIndian - 12-02-2015

I think Ohio State would make it to the playoffs ahead of UNC if that particular scenario were to occur.  Horrible SOS and weak conference division for UNC.