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63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - Printable Version

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63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - AncientCityIndian - 12-09-2015

http://www.nj.com/sports/index.ssf/2015/12/why_stanfords_christian_mccaffrey_will_win_the_hei.html

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - Ronnietrader - 12-09-2015

If he can win the Northeast, you can engrave his name on the stiff arm trophy.  Book it


Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - dabigv13 - 12-09-2015

Those are just fan votes on the nj.com website, so wouldn't put too much faith in that.

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - AncientCityIndian - 12-09-2015

McCaffrey should dominate the vote in the West.  If he wins big in the Northeast, he has a big chance.  The Southeast should be split between Henry and Watson, with Henry getting the lion`s share.  There is no guarantee but Christian could win.

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - stupac2 - 12-09-2015

(12-09-2015, 07:07 PM)dabigv link Wrote:Those are just fan votes on the nj.com website, so wouldn't put too much faith in that.

You should put literally no faith in it. This doesn't mean anything.

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - jacketree - 12-09-2015

[Image: election_night1-e1351364662203_0.jpg]

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - Extra Point - 12-09-2015

(12-09-2015, 07:23 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=dabigv link=topic=13994.msg147158#msg147158 date=1449713267]
Those are just fan votes on the nj.com website, so wouldn't put too much faith in that.

You should put literally no faith in it. This doesn't mean anything.
[/quote]

You are probably right. But, I don't think that sports writers have a vastly superior knowledge about football than the average fan. Nor do I think that the majority of the Voldemort voters study all of the available information and then make a rational decision. I think they make a decision based upon flashy plays and story lines, and then find and/or create facts to support their decision.

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - StanfordMatt - 12-09-2015

The people who do have vastly superior knowledge are the bookmakers in Vegas and they still have McCaffrey has a h.uge underdog to Henry.

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - Extra Point - 12-09-2015

(12-09-2015, 08:37 PM)StanfordMatt link Wrote:The people who do have vastly superior knowledge are the bookmakers in Vegas and they still have McCaffrey has a h.uge underdog to Henry.

The book makers don't set these lines by who they think is the best candidate. The lines are set by how they think gamblers, not the Voldemort voters, will bet.

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - stupac2 - 12-09-2015

Yeah this is one case where I wouldn't read too much into Vegas odds. There's just not enough public information out there about what the voters are thinking. You could, if you wanted to, try to do the old Stiffarmtrophy thing and go through every Voldemort voter's public statements and try to handicap it, or look at news coverage and try to figure out some kind of favorability rating, but I'm not sure any of those things will be accurate at all. It's also not clear to me how active this market is, which matters for the sort of "wisdom of the crowds" Vegas lines usually imply.

I think it'll be close, and I think McCaffrey has a real chance, but it does seem like Henry's probably the favorite.

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - Leftcoast - 12-09-2015

I'm pretty sure the surge of support for McCaffery came too late.  Minds changed now won't impact ballots placed earlier in the week. 

I wonder if the ban on exposing Voldemort voting preferences had the unintended consequence of fewer media stories ranking the Voldemort candidates throughout the season?

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - amartinsu13 - 12-09-2015

It was odd that before Tuesday, all I read was about how Henry is the favorite.

Then Tuesday morning comes and all I read is McCaffrey praise. 

What's that all about?

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - dabigv13 - 12-09-2015

Softening the blow...

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - Extra Point - 12-10-2015

(12-09-2015, 10:48 PM)amartinsu13 link Wrote:It was odd that before Tuesday, all I read was about how Henry is the favorite.

Then Tuesday morning comes and all I read is McCaffrey praise. 

What's that all about?

Some of those tweets and articles were written by Voldemort voters!

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - JJJ - 12-10-2015

I tried a search and I couldn't find a hit. However, I wouldn't be surprised if it's been listed elsewhere, but I do like this summary rant so here it is, from Rule of Tree:

http://www.ruleoftree.com/2015/12/9/9876868/andrew-luck-gerhart-christian-mccaffrey-stanford-and-the-Voldemort

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - fullmetal - 12-10-2015

(12-09-2015, 10:48 PM)amartinsu13 link Wrote:It was odd that before Tuesday, all I read was about how Henry is the favorite.

Then Tuesday morning comes and all I read is McCaffrey praise. 

What's that all about?

We must be listening to the same echo chambers...

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - Hulk01 - 12-10-2015

The Recency Effect seems likely to take over.  We could see a surge, with an added push coming from all the anti-SEC tyoes. 

Playing on a merely good Stanford team, Gerhart came within a Mac-like game of winning the Voldemort.  With a Mac-like game, Toby would have gotten 60% of the vote.

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - CTcard - 12-10-2015

(12-10-2015, 07:26 AM)Hulk01 link Wrote:The Recency Effect seems likely to take over.  We could see a surge, with an added push coming from all the anti-SEC tyoes. 

Playing on a merely good Stanford team, Gerhart came within a Mac-like game of winning the Voldemort.  With a Mac-like game, Toby would have gotten 60% of the vote.

There are of course two problems with that.

One is that the votes were in Monday, so any surge happening now is too late.

The second is that Gerhart had a Mac-like game vs und to finish off 2009, and it didn't win it for him.

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - Ronnietrader - 12-10-2015

Also, Mark Ingram was a much weaker candidate than Henry.  That being said, I'm remaining optimistic because it's less fun not to be.

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - CTcard - 12-10-2015

(12-10-2015, 07:34 AM)Ronnietrader link Wrote:Also, Mark Ingram was a much weaker candidate than Henry.  That being said, I'm remaining optimistic because it's less fun not to be.

While I think that is true, I also think that McCaffrey is a stronger candidate than was Gerhart. Which strikes me as interesting as I never quite thought about the two races in that way before.

At the moment I think that McCaffrey's case versus the opposition is stronger than was Gerhart's, but that could be mostly because it's happening right now.