True Frosh QBs 2015 Edition - Printable Version

True Frosh QBs 2015 Edition - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: True Frosh QBs 2015 Edition (/thread-11025.html)

True Frosh QBs 2015 Edition - CTcard - 12-10-2015

So, ESPN has an article about QB competitions in the Pac 12 for next year, and notes in passing that, "Rosen and Falk likely will make more than a few preseason Voldemort Trophy lists."
http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/96158/several-pac-12-schools-will-have-quarterback-competitions-in-2016

The Rosen I saw, while possessing obvious potential, was certainly not approaching any kind of Voldemort level this past year. In fact, while I didn't watch him as much, Jake Browning at UW had perhaps better stats with a weaker set of weapons.

That got me thinking about how frosh QBs around the country fared this year. Here is a quick run down of the FBS true frosh QBs i could find. They are listed in order of their PER score.

PlayerÂ Â Â TeamÂ Â Pass yds/gmÂ PERÂ Run yds/gmÂ adj. QBR(score-rank)
Mangum*Â BYUÂ Â Â Â 255Â Â Â Â Â Â 142Â Â Â Â Â -8Â Â Â Â Â 66.1 - 46th
BrowningÂ Â UWÂ Â Â Â 243Â Â Â Â Â Â 139Â Â Â Â Â 0.5Â Â Â Â Â 58.8 - 62nd
RypienÂ Â Â BoiseÂ Â Â Â 297Â Â Â Â Â Â 137Â Â Â Â Â -5Â Â Â Â Â 56.4 - 67th
LittonÂ Â MarshallÂ Â Â 239Â Â Â Â Â Â 134Â Â Â Â Â 2Â Â Â Â Â Â 49.6 - 90th
RosenÂ Â Â UCLAÂ Â Â Â 279Â Â Â Â Â Â 133Â Â Â Â Â 3Â Â Â Â Â Â 70.2 - 33rd
JacksonÂ L-villeÂ Â Â Â 147Â Â Â Â Â Â 125Â Â Â Â Â 67Â Â Â Â Â 67.0 - 42nd
NealÂ Â Â Ball StÂ Â Â Â 207Â Â Â Â Â Â 118Â Â Â Â Â 36Â Â Â Â Â 48.4 - 95th

* I have seen Mangum described as a true frosh, which seems odd as he was HS class of 2012. One would think he would have taken a two year mission then be a RS Frosh. I don't know just what his story is, but he is not quite in the same category as the rest here.

I think WIM would tell us that these not-spectacular numbers are par for true frosh QBs. [Last year's notable exception, Kaaya at Miami had 2014 PER=146, 2015 PER = 144]

I cannot really do an informed comparison of all these guys as the only one I watched a lot was Rosen, Browning a little.

I find it curious that ESPN's QBR, whatever exactly that really is, likes Rosen so much despite not really standing out in any of pass efficiency, pass yds, run yds. It would be interesting to note what in particular QBR liked about Rosen, presumably not that he throws a pretty ball.

It makes sense to me that Rosen may have the most potential of this group - if he had the best performance it was not by a lot.

The last two guys on the list seem to have the common frosh/athletic QB "run if you don't know what else to do" phenomenon going on, but none of the others seem to be notable runners. At least with Jackson it seems his pretty good QBR is due to his running ability compensating for lesser passing numbers.

Re: True Frosh QBs 2015 Edition - stupac2 - 12-10-2015

(12-10-2015, 11:51 AM)CTcard link Wrote:I find it curious that ESPN's QBR, whatever exactly that really is, likes Rosen so much despite not really standing out in any of pass efficiency, pass yds, run yds. It would be interesting to note what in particular QBR liked about Rosen, presumably not that he throws a pretty ball.

Re: True Frosh QBs 2015 Edition - standfan - 12-10-2015

That had better be a long pre-season Voldemort list, else putting Rosen on it is absurd.

He has potential but needs to show more than he did last year to beÂ a Voldemort candidate. It would not be a big surprise if he earns it before year end, but we'll see. Actually, I don't care much about who gets to watch up close when CMac wins it (again) next year.

Re: True Frosh QBs 2015 Edition - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 12-10-2015

(12-10-2015, 12:25 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=CTcard link=topic=14004.msg147299#msg147299 date=1449773490]I find it curious that ESPN's QBR, whatever exactly that really is, likes Rosen so much despite not really standing out in any of pass efficiency, pass yds, run yds. It would be interesting to note what in particular QBR liked about Rosen, presumably not that he throws a pretty ball.

Well, QBR is essentially traditional QB rating, with running stats and sacks added, plus extra weighting for important situations. So that gives us a few options:

1) Rosen takes fewer sacks.
2) Rosen runs better (probably not this).
3) Rosen does better in high-leverage situations (3rd down, 4th quarter, etc).

I don't really feel like looking up sack stats, but even without doing that I'm guessing it's the third thing.
[/quote]

Until ESPN actually releases the QBR formula, I am inclined to think it's just a way for them to generate stories.Â Unless you are privy to information the general public isn't.

Re: True Frosh QBs 2015 Edition - BostonCard - 12-10-2015

Here's a link to ESPN's explanation for QBR:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/9612585/total-quarterback-rating-college-football

Breaking down the individual stats (EPA stands for "expected points added"):

Rosen's pass EPA is 55.1 (26th).Â Falk is tops in the country at 109.6, Hogan is 21st at 63.9.
Rosen's run EPA is 7.2 (49th).Â Among our opponents, Kizer is 12th at 18.3.Â Hogan is 31st at 12.2 (seems odd)
Rosen's sack EPA is -8.9 (34th).Â Among our opponents, Seth Collins from OSU is 3rd at -2.5 (good OSU was good at something).Â Hogan was 78th at -13.5, which again seems odd since he didn't take a lot of sacks.
Rosen's penalty EPA is -1 (119th).Â Travis Wilson is 7th at 5.1; Hogan is 9th at 5.0.

Overall, Rosen is 29th with an EPA of 52.4.Â Hogan's is 67.5, Falk leads the Pac-12 at 87.8.Â However, when you adjust for the fact that Hogan has far fewer "action plays" than anyone in the conference, his raw QBR is 81.4; Rosen's is 67.6.Â When you adjust for strength of opposing defenses, Hogan is 85.4 (5th), Rosen is 33rd at 70.2.Â

For Browning the numbers are:
Pass EPA 36.0, Run EPA 8.7, sack EPA -19.3, penalty EPA -1.7, Total EPA 23.6, raw QBR 54.1, total QBR 58.8

BC

Re: True Frosh QBs 2015 Edition - cardcoug - 12-10-2015

(12-10-2015, 11:51 AM)CTcard link Wrote:* I have seen Mangum described as a true frosh, which seems odd as he was HS class of 2012. One would think he would have taken a two year mission then be a RS Frosh. I don't know just what his story is, but he is not quite in the same category as the rest here.

Three years ago the age to begin a mission changed from 19 to 18, so players now go straight out of high school and defer enrollment (instead of redshirting for a year then going) until they get back and begin as true freshman. This was the year that the first batch of 20 year old returned missionaries were back in time to play football, and I'm glad I'm not the guy on BYU's staff who was supposed to figure out how to recruit around the fact that the missionaries from classes 2 and 3 years ago arrived back for the same year.

Re: True Frosh QBs 2015 Edition - BrevinsBest - 12-10-2015

ESPN's QBR rating is hogwash. The highest QBR rating in an NFL game was from Charlie Batch. In that game he threw for 186 yards and 2 ints. Profootballtalk.com ran an interesting analysis of this game. I'll just leave it at that.

Re: True Frosh QBs 2015 Edition - CTcard - 12-11-2015

(12-10-2015, 02:09 PM)cardcoug link Wrote:[quote author=CTcard link=topic=14004.msg147299#msg147299 date=1449773490]

* I have seen Mangum described as a true frosh, which seems odd as he was HS class of 2012. One would think he would have taken a two year mission then be a RS Frosh. I don't know just what his story is, but he is not quite in the same category as the rest here.

Three years ago the age to begin a mission changed from 19 to 18, so players now go straight out of high school and defer enrollment (instead of redshirting for a year then going) until they get back and begin as true freshman.
[/quote]

Maybe I am missing something, but it doesn't quite explain to me how Mangum is three years out of HS and a true frosh.
Is he really a true frosh?
Did he have an awkward start time for his mission?