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Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - Printable Version

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Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - 2006alum - 01-19-2016

In light of the news that we have three McDonald’s All-Americans (Fingall, Carrington, and Wilson), I was curious to see how that designation has translated to success at Stanford, so I pulled the numbers for all prior All-Americans. Full stats below. A few observations:

1. There seems to be a strong correlation between number of All-Americans and our overall seasons. Our best years were probably 2008 and 2010, when we made the national championship games. In both of those years were had SEVEN All-Americans on the team (in 2008, Pierce, Wiggins, Appel, Harrison, Cimino, Pederson, and Pohlen; in 2010, Appel, Harrison, Cimino, Pederson, Pohlen, Ogwumike, and Tinkle). Needless to say, the late 2000s were good for us in general, as we fluctuated between having anywhere from 3 to 7 in every year from 2004-2005 to 2013-2014. And for 2008-2010, we had a starting lineup of 3-4 All-Americans!

2. All things considered, we’ve done remarkably well this year we're down to TWO All-Americans on the team, the lowest since 2004. By this measure, it’s not at all surprising we’ve fallen off significantly. It’s interesting too: for all we say “what might have been” had Beebe not had to medically retire, she wasn’t an All-American either, so for whatever reason, we haven’t recruited as well since 2011. It's really a testament to Tara's coaching abilities that we're still solidly a Top 20 team despite considerably less high school "talent".

3. On the other hand, there’s not a 1:1 correlation between McDonald's All-American status and performance in college. Several of our recruits who were McDonald's AA’s I reacted with a “Who?!” Ashley Cimino’s game never translated to college, and Michelle Harrison and Cissy Piece both had pretty underwhelming success at Stanford.

4. That said, with those three exceptions, most were four-year starters with the exception of Bonnie and Pohlen. And I can't think of any break-out successes who weren't McDonald's AA's. The closest are probably Jillian Harmon, JJ Hones, and Toni Kokenis.

5. Given the significant contributions our McDonald's AAs have made in the past, I’m really hopeful our incoming trio can jump-start us next year, especially since we’ll return all our starters. That being said, looking at this list makes me realize how incredibly successful we were at recruiting in the mid-2000s, and how far off we’ve fallen off since until this year.

(Because of message limit, the data are in the next post)


Re: Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - 2006alum - 01-19-2016

The Data:
(I sorted by player and going chronologically from freshman to senior year)

Brooke Smith (2002)
[Transferred from Duke after her sophomore year, sat out 2003-2004]
## SUMMARY              GP-GS  Min  FG%  3PT%  FT%  R/G  A/G STL BLK PTS/G
S Smith, Brooke....... 35-32  23.9  .610  .000  .677  5.5              13.3
J Smith, Brooke....... 34-34  30.9  .576  .000  .779  7.5  3.1  36  47  17.2
S Smith, Brooke....... 34-34  32.5  .504  .216  .826  7.6  3.5  43  36  13.9

Cissy Pierce (2004)
## SUMMARY              GP-GS  Min  FG%  3PT%  FT%  R/G  A/G STL BLK PTS/G
F Pierce, Cissy....... 25-0    10.9  .344  .214  .667  1.4                    2.9
S Pierce, Cissy....... 29-1    13.7  .417  .250  .591  1.4  1.3  14  1  3.5
J Pierce, Cissy....... 34-17  18.2  .408  .325  .667  1.9  0.7  21  5  4.9
S Pierce, Cissy....... 35-6    11.8  .379  .323  .583  1.1  0.6  14  2  2.7

Candice Wiggins (2004)
## SUMMARY              GP-GS  Min  FG%  3PT%  FT%  R/G  A/G STL BLK PTS/G
F Wiggins, Candice.... 35-34  26.9  .483  .336  .835 5.4                      17.5
S Wiggins, Candice.... 34-34  31.6  .477  .433  .824  4.8  3.5  68  21  21.8
J Wiggins, Candice.... 29-28  30.6  .460  .441  .789  4.1  3.3  44  12  16.9
S Wiggins, Candice.... 39-39  31.7  .429  .344  .821  4.8  3.1  84  16  20.2

Jayne Appel (2006)
## SUMMARY              GP-GS  Min  FG%  3PT%  FT%  R/G  A/G STL BLK PTS/G
F Appel, Jayne........ 33-0  19.3  .538  .000  .645  7.5  1.0  26  61  13.2
S Appel, Jayne........ 39-39  28.9  .588  .000  .706  8.8  2.8  34  84  15.0
J Appel, Jayne........ 38-38  26.0  .602  .000  .653  9.2  2.8  25  70  16.1
S Appel, Jayne........ 37-35  27.3  .521  .000  .628  8.7  2.5  25  58  13.2

Michelle Harrison (2006)
## SUMMARY              GP-GS  Min  FG%  3PT%  FT%  R/G  A/G STL BLK PTS/G
F Harrison, Michelle.. 34-0  11.0  .392  .244  .579  1.9  0.8  8  8  3.5
S Harrison, Michelle..  1-0    4.0 1.000  .000  .000  2.0  0.0  0  0  2.0
RS Harrison, Michelle.. 30-0    9.2  .418  .289  .667  1.7  0.6  10  12  3.0
RJ Harrison, Michelle.. 28-0    5.8  .366  .231  .500  1.1  0.4  6  8  1.3
[tore ACL first game of sophomore year, grad transfer to Utah for RS senior year]

Ashley Cimino (2007)
## SUMMARY              GP-GS  Min  FG%  3PT%  FT%  R/G  A/G STL BLK PTS/G
F Cimino, Ashley...... 18-0    4.7  .353  .000  .800  0.9  0.2  1  3  0.9
S Cimino, Ashley...... 21-0    3.0  .600  .000  .786  0.8  0.1  0  1  1.1
J Cimino, Ashley...... 25-0    3.5  .231  .333  .750  0.6  0.1  1  1  0.5
S Cimino, Ashley...... 23-0    3.6  .571  .667  .857  1.0  0.2  1  2  1.1

Kayla Pederson (2007)
## SUMMARY              GP-GS  Min  FG%  3PT%  FT%  R/G  A/G STL BLK PTS/G
F Pedersen, Kayla..... 39-39  30.4  .497  .355  .713  8.4  1.6  33  25  12.6
S Pedersen, Kayla..... 38-38  30.0  .433  .340  .673  7.8  2.2  35  21  10.8
J Pedersen, Kayla..... 38-38  33.5  .459  .377  .823  9.5  2.7  22  17  15.8
S Pedersen, Kayla..... 35-35  33.3  .466  .262  .783  8.0  3.5  35  27  12.6

Jeannette Pohlen (2007)
## SUMMARY              GP-GS  Min  FG%  3PT%  FT%  R/G  A/G STL BLK PTS/G
F Pohlen, Jeanette.... 39-0  19.3  .430  .269  .828  2.9  1.9  26  8  4.6
S Pohlen, Jeanette.... 38-38  31.9  .403  .374  .684  3.8  3.8  45  15  10.7
J Pohlen, Jeanette.... 37-36  31.9  .385  .370  .895  2.9  4.5  44  17  9.3
S Pohlen, Jeanette.... 36-36  33.6  .436  .417  .893  3.2  4.8  45  12  14.5

Nneka Ogwumike (2008)
## SUMMARY              GP-GS  Min  FG%  3PT%  FT%  R/G  A/G STL BLK PTS/G
F Ogwumike, Nnemkadi.. 38-14  21.0  .629  .000  .702  6.1  1.0  16  13  10.6
S Ogwumike, Nnemkadi.. 38-38  30.4  .598  .000  .761  9.9  1.4  33  17  18.5
J Ogwumike, Nnemkadi.. 33-33  28.8  .586  .222  .757  7.6  1.2  31  18  17.5
S Ogwumike, Nnemkadi.. 36-36  30.5  .547  .235  .830 10.2  1.8  49  40  22.5

Joslyn Tinkle (2009)
F Tinkle, Joslyn...... 34-3  13.6  .441  .345  .533  2.9  0.5  9  27  4.6
S Tinkle, Joslyn...... 35-9  15.7  .442  .316  .667  2.8  1.4  10  10  5.5
J Tinkle, Joslyn...... 37-25  24.0  .473  .397  .895  5.4  1.3  26  47  8.7
S Tinkle, Joslyn...... 36-36  31.7  .461  .322  .773  5.7  1.6  30  66  11.8

Chiney Ogwumike (2010)
## SUMMARY              GP-GS  Min  FG%  3PT%  FT%  R/G  A/G STL BLK PTS/G
F Ogwumike, Chiney.... 35-35  23.6  .574  .000  .626  8.0  0.9  52  29  11.7
S Ogwumike, Chiney.... 37-37  28.5  .583  .000  .663 10.1  1.4  28  45  15.0
J Ogwumike, Chiney.... 36-36  34.4  .586  .250  .776 12.9  1.5  49  62  22.4
S Ogwumike, Chiney.... 37-37  33.8  .601  .267  .713 12.1  1.7  45  66  26.1

Amber Orrange (2011)
## SUMMARY              GP-GS  Min  FG%  3PT%  FT%  R/G  A/G STL BLK PTS/G
F Orrange, Amber...... 37-23  19.7  .444  .300  .805  2.7  3.0  40  8  4.8
S Orrange, Amber...... 36-35  31.2  .464  .400  .813  3.4  4.1  57  10  10.8
J Orrange, Amber...... 37-37  31.9  .475  .322  .759  3.5  4.5  51  2  10.3
S Orrange, Amber...... 36-36  32.5  .468  .426  .818  4.0  3.5  65  6  13.3

Bonnie Samuelson (2011)
## SUMMARY              GP-GS  Min  FG%  3PT%  FT%  R/G  A/G STL BLK PTS/G
F Samuelson, Bonnie... 35-0  11.0  .362  .373  .800  1.2  0.4  6  8  4.6
S Samuelson, Bonnie... 35-0  14.7  .351  .350  .909  1.5  0.4  6  2  5.4
J Samuelson, Bonnie... 35-5  15.3  .434  .406  .966  1.3  0.9  6  4  7.3
S Samuelson, Bonnie... 36-26  25.8  .436  .438  .908  2.8  0.4  14  15  9.6

Kailee Johnson (2013)
F Johnson, Kailee..... 29-3    9.8  .388  .400  .458  1.7  0.6  10  9  2.4
S Johnson, Kailee..... 24-0    7.6  .333  .000  .444  1.6  0.2  6  13  1.1

Erica McCall (2013)
F McCall, Erica....... 36-2  10.5  .439  .000  .545  3.2  0.3  5  21  3.3
S McCall, Erica....... 36-18  17.1  .517  .000  .511  5.4  0.2  8  50  5.6



Re: Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - BobK - 01-19-2016

Erica McCall and Kailee Johnson were certainly McDs.  So that's two.  Beebe had an ACL May of her JR year in HS and did not play as a Sr. 

Re: Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - 2006alum - 01-19-2016

(01-19-2016, 10:55 AM)BobK link Wrote:Erica McCall and Kailee Johnson were certainly McDs.  So that's two.  Beebe had an ACL May of her JR year in HS and did not play as a Sr.

Ah! I just realized the latest alumni list is as of December 2013, so I guess that explains the absence of Bird and Kailee from the list. I added them, and just checked the rosters for 2014 and 2015, and confirmed no Stanford players. So looks like those were the only absences.

Re: Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - M T - 01-19-2016

I looked at points/40 minutes and compared first and last years' stats.  It was about evenly split between those that scored more quickly as a freshman than a senior.  Biggest moves:  Chiney +11.1 (she scored 30.9/40 min as a senior).  Nneka +9.3 (only 29.5/40).  Jayne -8.0.  Amber +6.6.  Jeanette +7.7.  Brooke -5.2.

The fact that Chiney scored more per minute than her sister is likely due to the fact that Stanford was more multi-threat during Nneka's years than in Chiney's last season.


Re: Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - 81alum - 01-19-2016

I take it you are limiting it to McDonald's All-Americans and not other kinds of All-Americans?  There are a number of other organizations that do national all-American teams.  Marta Sniezek was a Parade All-American in basketball--also an All-American in soccer.  She was also a McDonald's All-American nominee--I don't quite know what that means.

The McDonald's system does cover Canada but no other countries, so Alanna would not have been eligible.  Is selection to FIBA U19 the equivalent?  I imagine pretty much all the Americans on the FIBA U19 team were McDonald's All-Americans.

I did a similar analysis based on ESPN rankings a few years back.  In general, as much as I didn't want to admit it, the ESPN ranking is a pretty good predictor of college contributions in a broad way.  People ranked 1-10 almost always were four year starters, people ranked 10-60 frequently developed into a starter before they were finished, and people ranked above 60 seldom were more than role players.  Exceptions to everything of course.

Re: Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - 2006alum - 01-19-2016

I wanted to look atMcDonald's All-Americans because there was a big ESPN story about the significance of Stanford having three, whereas I couldn't remember us having had any recently. Coupled with the observation that the last time we had three in one year was 2007 (around the time when we became regulars in the national title hunt), and the fact that there's not an easy way to compare year-to-year the way there is with HoopGurlz, ProspectNation, etc., I was curious to compile our prior honorees. No reason to think these are more or less predictive than the rankings services, but it does seem like the McD's AA's are predictably among the top college players.

Re: Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - BobK - 01-19-2016

Parade is a joke.  No real analysis just stats. 

The 2nd all star game that Karlie played in is more significant.

But then the stats of two outstanding Pac 12 players who wanted badly to attend Stanford but couldn't are also. 😁

Re: Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - TheFarm07 - 01-19-2016

I am excited about Carrington, it sounds like she might become an explosive playmaker that we need to add a little spark to the team for the next few years.

With McCall set to be a senior next year, Fingall sounds like she could be our next main interior scoring threat.

With our point guard troubles this year, having another talented PG in Wilson come in to push everyone is always an asset.

With our concerns about how Tara is using all our key players, adding 3 more players that could contribute right away will be another tricky proposition next season.

Re: Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - TheFarm07 - 01-19-2016

(01-19-2016, 01:07 PM)81alum link Wrote:I did a similar analysis based on ESPN rankings a few years back.  In general, as much as I didn't want to admit it, the ESPN ranking is a pretty good predictor of college contributions in a broad way.  People ranked 1-10 almost always were four year starters, people ranked 10-60 frequently developed into a starter before they were finished, and people ranked above 60 seldom were more than role players.  Exceptions to everything of course.

That's why I've been hoping that we could secure a Top-5 recruit one of these years.  National title teams the last few years have had that elite superstar from Breanna Stewart to Brittany Griner to Maya Moore.  It doesn't always guarantee bringing the trophy home as we had with the Ogwumike sisters and Jayne Appel, but it's nice to have that superstar playing on your side.

I was reading recaps of games in past seasons and during Chiney's freshman year, there was a conference game against UCLA.  It was relatively close at halftime and Nneka didn't play that game because of an injury, and the article quoted Tara telling Chiney to "take over the game" and do what she needed to do at halftime.  This was on a team that had Pedersen and Pohlen.  It would be nice to see an elite freshman have that type of immediate impact.

It also stands in contrast to what seems like Tara's reluctance to use Brittany and Alanna more frequently even though they've been producing a little more offensively.

Re: Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - 2006alum - 01-19-2016

(01-19-2016, 02:02 PM)TheFarm07 link Wrote:I was reading recaps of games in past seasons and during Chiney's freshman year, there was a conference game against UCLA.  It was relatively close at halftime and Nneka didn't play that game because of an injury, and the article quoted Tara telling Chiney to "take over the game" and do what she needed to do at halftime.  This was on a team that had Pedersen and Pohlen.  It would be nice to see an elite freshman have that type of immediate impact.

It also stands in contrast to what seems like Tara's reluctance to use Brittany and Alanna more frequently even though they've been producing a little more offensively.

Totally agree. It's a bit of a chicken and the egg situation, though: on the one hand, perhaps no one is rising up and taking charge because Tara doesn't think we have a Chiney-like playmaker who can effectively take over. On the other hand, it's hard to find one when we have offense-by-committee and a rotating cast where every game we feature a different leading scorer. Remarkably, we've had a different leading scorer in each of our last four games (Kailee at OSU, Karlie at Oregon, Kaylee vs. Colorado, and Lili and Brittany vs. Utah). That doesn't count the fact that Erica, our second-leading scorer, has also been our top scorer in four games, or that both Alanna and Bri have been our leading scorers in two games each. In total, we've had seven players take top billing on a given night, and while that probably makes us slightly harder to scout, it also makes it really hard to establish an offensive rhythm for longer than 40 minutes. It'd sure be nice to have a player (or couple of players) we could reliably count on game after game. We really haven't had that since Chiney left, and it shows. I really thought we were there with Bird through the end of non-conference play, but the last five games have been really dispiriting. (On the other hand, since she rarely starts with the ball, our drop-off in guard play probably unfairly punishes her numbers).

Re: Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - TheFarm07 - 01-19-2016

It's weird, by that observation (multiple players leading the scoring on different nights), we are not just reliant on one player to do all the scoring, but looking at it from another perspective, we often struggle offensively when other teams shut down McCall and Lili, kind of a paradox...

Re: Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - CompSci87 - 01-19-2016

Quote:3. On the other hand, there’s not a 1:1 correlation between McDonald's All-American status and performance in college. Several of our recruits who were McDonald's AA’s I reacted with a “Who?!” Ashley Cimino’s game never translated to college, and Michelle Harrison and Cissy Piece both had pretty underwhelming success at Stanford

FWIW, Cimino and Harrison were both badly hampered by injuries.

Re: Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - chimera - 01-19-2016

I've thought for years that the rankings are much more meaningful at the very top.  A top 3 or top 5 player is worth her weight in gold.  Almost all of our recent All-Americans on one All-American team or other (AP, WBCA, etc) have been top 5 players (Appel was #3, Nneka was I think #2, Chiney was #1, Wiggins I forget but I think #4?) except Jeanette Pohlen, who was #23 I believe.  Kayla Pedersen, who was a #4 recruit, was an HM All-American, as was Amber Orrange, who was a top 15 recruit.  We have not had anyone who came in lower than a top 25 recruit become an All-American.  The very top recruits are almost sure bets to be stars.  Pedersen would have probably gotten more accolades had she not played on such stacked teams.

The class coming in looks great.  I am excited to have all four of them next year.  However, none of them are top 10 recruits even though they did make the McD game.  Take that for whatever it is worth. 

Re: Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - TheFarm07 - 01-19-2016

We had an embarrassment of riches in the late 2000s to the early 2010s when we had multiple All-Americans on the same team.  Pedersen was overshadowed by her other teammates, but I thought she was the critical cog in our success.  She was so versatile and reliable during those years, that when teams focused on Appel, an Ogwumike or Pohlen, she was doing her business quietly, but so well.

Re: Women's BBall McDonald's All-Americans Past and Future - 81alum - 01-19-2016

(01-19-2016, 09:59 PM)TheFarm07 link Wrote:We had an embarrassment of riches in the late 2000s to the early 2010s when we had multiple All-Americans on the same team.  Pedersen was overshadowed by her other teammates, but I thought she was the critical cog in our success.  She was so versatile and reliable during those years, that when teams focused on Appel, an Ogwumike or Pohlen, she was doing her business quietly, but so well.
Kayla played out of her natural position much of her career after Nneka showed up, playing the 3.  She was so gifted under the basket, but didn't get much time there given Appel and Nneka.  She could easily have been the featured post and racked up even bigger numbers than she did, but she adjusted for the good of the team.