OTish: Coin flips - Printable Version
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OTish: Coin flips - BostonCard - 01-25-2016
http://econ.ucsb.edu/~doug/240a/Coin%20Flip.htm
Apparently they aren't completely unbiased. Perhaps we should pass this along to our captains for when they call the coin flip.
BC
Re: OTish: Coin flips - Oasis - 01-25-2016
Interesting.
Re: OTish: Coin flips - larkinforever - 01-25-2016
Given the possibilities presented in the article and the pre-kick conditions, I think we can just tell the captains to pick the same side as the one facing upwards on the ref's thumb, correct?
Re: OTish: Coin flips - BostonCard - 01-25-2016
Yes, that is what I would advise. From the article, it is likely a very small difference, since: "If the coin is tossed and allowed to clatter to the floor, this probably adds randomness."
But still, every little bit counts.
BC
Re: OTish: Coin flips - Rally - 01-25-2016
What you CAN count on is that if we win the toss, we want the ball.
Re: OTish: Coin flips - larkinforever - 01-25-2016
(01-25-2016, 04:51 PM)ferrari link Wrote:What you CAN count on is that if we win the toss, we want the ball.
I can't remember - was that the case before this past season? I feel like Shaw might've favored starting with our D on the field when our D was stout, when we were more about playing the field position game, starting with the ball in the 2nd half, etc.
Re: OTish: Coin flips - JJJ - 01-25-2016
Even more OT:
"Suffice to say" or "suffice it to say"? (and I put the question mark outside the quotation marks on purpose...)
Re: OTish: Coin flips - Nan3cy - 01-25-2016
(01-25-2016, 05:56 PM)JJJ link Wrote:Even more OT:
"Suffice to say" or "suffice it to say"? (and I put the question mark outside the quotation marks on purpose...)
The one I've always heard is "suffice it to say" -- but since I really only know one guy who said it, it might be that I always heard it that way because he always said it that way...
Re: OTish: Coin flips - CompSci87 - 01-25-2016
I believe "it" is required in that phrase. The phrase is the imperative counterpart to the indicative "It suffices to say..." or in other words "It is sufficient to say..." By using the imperative you are implying that you have the authority to determine that saying "..." is sufficient. With the indicative you'd be stating as a fact that it is sufficient.
Hmm, or alternatively maybe "Suffice it to say..." could be subjunctive, meaning something like "let's assume for the sake of discussion that saying ... is sufficient." That doesn't seem right to me, though.
Re: OTish: Coin flips - JJJ - 01-25-2016
Thank you. I always thought it was "suffice it to say" until the internet happened and I saw so many instances when this wasn't so. Along with "should of" and "for all intensive purposes" and other fingernails-on-chalkboard examples (to steal a phrase from another CARDboarder in reference to the spelling of Christian's last name).
Re: OTish: Coin flips - DC - 01-25-2016
At the Rose Bowl, we won the toss and asked for the ball, even though we would be directly looking into the sun. In the second quarter, Iowa did not have to look into the sun, as it had gone down, so the sun factor doesn't even out, and I'm sure Shaw knew that would be the case. Of course, there are different aspects to this - McCaffrey looked back towards the shade when receiving the first pass of the game.
Re: OTish: Coin flips - larkinforever - 01-25-2016
Can you remind us what happened on that play? 8)
Re: OTish: Coin flips - BostonCard - 01-25-2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lP7QYQi3s7w
BC
Re: OTish: Coin flips - Rally - 01-26-2016
(01-25-2016, 10:59 PM)larkinforever link Wrote:Can you remind us what happened on that play? 8)
Our band marched in a big parade.
Applicability to Football Games - standfan - 01-26-2016
A too serious reply:
In football games the coin is allowed to land on the grass, probably making the randomness substantially greater than 99%.
But assuming the 1% bias applies, assuming the captain is actually in a position to know the starting position (can he see it?; does the flipper not make last second shifts?) and assuming we are the picker 6 games a season, following the "picking rules" religiously would give us approximately one extra correct call every 16 seasons. Then factor in the odds that winning the coin flip favorably affects the game's outcome. Let's say a way too high 20%. That means a game would be affected once every 80 years.
I'd rather have my captain thinking about something else.
Re: OTish: Coin flips - BostonCard - 01-26-2016
Per the article, heads is heavier. So if you spin a coin, pick tails.
Quote:If the coin is being spun rather than tossed, always choose whichever side is lightest. On a typical coin, the "Heads" side of the coin will have more "stuff" engraved on it, causing Tails to show up more frequently than it should. Choosing Tails in this situation is usually the power play.
BC
Re: OTish: Coin flips - oldalum - 01-26-2016
when is a coin typically spun rather than tossed?
The whole thing would be rendered moot if the ref would ask the caller to make the call before the ref positions the coin for the toss, so the caller can't see which side is up before the toss.