Scouting report on Kansas state?

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Scouting report on Kansas state? - Row80Critic - 08-18-2016

We're getting close enough -- let's talk about them. Reports seem to vary widely.Â How good or bad are they?Â How well does Stanford match up?

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - DC Cat - 08-21-2016

I've been watching this specific thread to see if anyone would post what they thought. I am legitimately curious what kinds of information gain traction when playing a team you don't see every year.

I have my own biased opinion of the cats. I also don't know much about your cards besides your stud running back. We've had some good games against Voldemort hopefuls before.

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - CTcard - 08-21-2016

(08-21-2016, 07:33 PM)DC Cat link Wrote:I've been watching this specific thread to see if anyone would post what they thought. I am legitimately curious what kinds of information gain traction when playing a team you don't see every year.

I have my own biased opinion of the cats. I also don't know much about your cards besides your stud running back. We've had some good games againstÂ Â hopefuls before.

Well, you really should be writing the leading post in this thread. Not many Stanford fans are going to have in depth knowledge of the Wildcats, though I am sure we have at least one north-central-easternish Kansan on this board.

To goad you into writing something substantial, I'll recap some things I've written over the past few months. Now you'll have a chance to explain why all of this is wrong.

KSU had a tough year last season. They went 6-7 (3-6). KSU's out of conference schedule last year was three victories over nobodies (South Dakota, UTSA, La Tech) and then got pounded in their bowl game by Arkansas (45-23, yards from scrimmage 569-242).
This was their worst record since Ron Prince was struggling as a temporary Snyder replacement for a few years (specifically since 2008). This was at least partly due to injuries. The difficulties were on both offense and defense, though in what I saw of them the offense was the most acute issue - just edging out Kansas to avoid having the worst offense in the Big 12. They didn't run the ball very well (3.86 yds per carry) and their passing was worse averaging 176 yds/game, 47% completions, and a PER of 108.

Their first order of business on offense, as it is for us and many teams at this time of year, is to figure out who their QB will be. They do have an incumbent, Joe Hubener who took over after injuries last season. The guy who was their initial starter last year is the one most fans seem to think will win the starting job this year, Jesse Ertz. He is now a redshirt junior who has zero career pass completions - he got injured after a play or two in game #1 last year. There's a third guy in the QB competition, Alex Delton, a redshirt frosh (injury) who played in two games last year but also has never completed a college pass. As far as I know there has been no official word on a starter yet.

Their other really big problem on offense right now would presumably be the OL. They lose 4 of 5 starters from last year (center returns), though another returner had 4 starts. I don't know just how the rebuild job is going, but almost by definition this is a problem.

They have RBs back, and lose some receivers but seem to have high hopes for a JC transfer.

The defense struggled last year, somewhat covered up by playing at a slower pace than most of the Big 12 (452 yds/gm - 6th in Big 12, 106th nationally;6.24 yds/play - 8th in Big 12 109th nationally). This seemed to be a bigger struggle vs the pass (PER allowed 149.5, 9th in Big 12, 113th nationally).

There seems to be hope on this side of the ball as most of the defense returns. As far as I can tell they are losing 2 major contributors on the DL, no LBs, and a couple of safeties but also return guys who got injured last year. KSU always seems to have a bit of a bend/don't break defense (perhaps last year bend and break) and I would imagine they are spending time figuring out how to keep McCaffrey and Love from breaking off brobdingnagian chunks of yardage.

Broadly speaking, the prognosticators have enough respect for Bill Snyder that there are universal statements that KSU will be better this year, and simply by injury considerations that ought to be true. Still, I haven't seen a preseason conference prediction that has KSU in the top half of the Big 12.

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - JJJ - 08-22-2016

Thanks CTCard for the in-depth analysis. That's a lot of info and may keep me a little bit occupied until Sep 2. (I will also be tuning in to UH/Cal down under later this week as a warming up of sorts).Â 8)

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - JohnR34231 - 08-22-2016

(08-21-2016, 07:33 PM)DC Cat link Wrote:I've been watching this specific thread to see if anyone would post what they thought. I am legitimately curious what kinds of information gain traction when playing a team you don't see every year.

I have my own biased opinion of the cats. I also don't know much about your cards besides your stud running back. We've had some good games againstÂ Â hopefuls before.

Mc Caffrey is a little more than just a "hopeful". We'll see how he does against KSU, though.

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - CTcard - 08-22-2016

(08-22-2016, 05:55 AM)JPRI link Wrote:[quote author=DC Cat link=topic=15451.msg168069#msg168069 date=1471833192]
I have my own biased opinion of the cats. I also don't know much about your cards besides your stud running back. We've had some good games againstÂ Â hopefuls before.

Mc Caffrey is a little more than just a "hopeful". We'll see how he does against KSU, though.
[/quote]

Of course the reference was originally to a Hiesman hopeful (I assume) altered by the all-knowing God-software.

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - DC Cat - 08-22-2016

Well CTcard, I wouldn't say much of your analysis is a stretch. But I will try to offer tidbits you may have missed. I am a little surprised you said, "Not many Stanford fans are going to have in depth knowledge of the Wildcats." I know you are probably overlooking us, but as your first non-conference power 5 opponent I would have thought a good percentage of your fan base would be learning all they could.

Saying that our team was negatively affected by injuries last year is an understatement. In the very first play our starting QB (Jesse Ertz) who supposedly won the job handily went down with a knee injury. Our extremely promising freshman QB (Alex Delton) got a handful of plays in the second game before also suffering a knee injury. This left us with walk on Joe Hubener, someone who had never started as a QB in his football career previously. The story goes that in high school (a tiny school in a tiny town in KS) he was such a "great athlete" that they needed him at WR instead of QB. So he had came in at QB sometimes, but generally started at WR because they needed him as a down field threat. That being said, Joe was an abysmal passer last year. We are in a conference where defenses are built to stop the pass, but that isn't an excuse.

It could easily be attributed to our lack of playmakers. We had lost the best receiver in K-State history (Tyler Lockett - 1,515 yards in 2014) and his counterpart (Curry Sexton - 1,059 yards in 2014) to graduation. Call it a gap in recruiting. Our more veteran receivers didn't step up. We did have some young talent that saw the field. The word out of training camp is that this could be our most solid receiving corps in a long time. Our younger guys are being bolstered by a junior college transfer Byron Pringle. I've heard nothing but high praise for him.

The other major injury setbacks came on the defensive side. Dante Barnett was on the preseason watch list for the Jim Thorpe award. He was the center point and leader of our defense. In the first half of the first game Barnett went down with a shoulder injury and was done for the year. We also lost our best coverage/hard hitting cornerback in the BIG XII opener to injury. So we went from having a stout group of defensive backs to starting a freshman and someone with a few steps slower 40 time at safety. In a pass happy league this became an issue quickly.

Honestly, injury was our greatest enemy due to a year or so of recruits "not working out." We lacked the depth for a true "next man up" type situation, and it showed. This year however we seem to have gotten to a point where we have true depth. We have four solid running backs (it looks like we will have RB by committee, but I am hoping one has a breakout year), our receiving corps should be solid, and our entire defense has what sounds like good depth.

The unknowns come from the offensive line and presumptive starting QB Jesse Ertz. From the fan appreciation scrimmage a few weeks ago it looks like our only returning starter has moved from center to tackle. The word is that the center replacing him was so close to his level of talent they thought it would be a waste to leave him on the bench. Our entire fanbase is holding its breath on this line. Replacing four veterans is always a scary prospect. But, this is a position we have often excelled at. As a team that enjoys running as much as we do, this could be the difference between a special season and a forgettable one.

As far as Jesse is concerned we have no idea what to expect. He supposedly practices like an allstar, but that doesn't always translate to good play in an actual game. If Joe is called on to play again I won't be ecstatic, but there is some crazy stat out there somewhere about how much better KSU QBs are in their second season under Snyder. We also enjoy running the Wildcat formation which was popularized/perfected at the college level by Bill Snyder. He loves it and Joe, Alex Delton, Charles Jones (Sr. RB), or Byron Pringle will probably be running it this year. So it will be more difficult to stop since they can mostly all throw.

We started BIG XII play losing six games in a row. Four of those six games we were within one possession of winning. Joe went down in the Oklahoma State game and our best backup QB at that point was our #1 receiver. He had played QB in Juco, and wasn't too bad. But it put a receiver who couldn't handle being the main target into the #1 role. Joe came back to start the next game, but wasn't as explosive. We won our last three games to reach bowl eligibility, but drawing Arkansas was unfortunate. Leading up to the bowl game we lost our most disruptive D-lineman (Will Geary) for undisclosed reasons and couldn't get an offense going. We lost a game we could have won had we even been kind of healthy, but our injuries made it a very poor matchup for us.

Snyder loves winning the time of possession battle, so expect some long drawn out drives. We also like to throw our QB at the line with all manners of QB option type plays. When K-State gets that part of the game working it can be very dangerous. Also expect to see our full back to get a lot of action. He is the OC's son, and put up some good stats last year. He won the starting job last year as a freshman over the youngest Gronkowski. We are still not entirely sure if it was nepotism or talent.

KSU is generally always underrated in preseason. The media always think this will be the year that Texas turns it around, and Oklahoma, TCU, and Baylor's recent success keep them pinned to the top. As a long time fan, being an underdog is how we like it. Keeps the opponent looking ahead and our players hungry.

I'm sure I missed some of what you went over, but this post is getting very long. I would be more than happy to answer any questions you might have.

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - OutsiderFan - 08-22-2016

My takeaway from that description is Kansas State lacks quality depth.Â Every team suffers injuries to some degree.Â And though Stanford has in general stayed healthy this decade, without good depth, it's tough to win conference championships.Â It's not just having your starters stay healthy.Â It's having enough guys to play to spell the starters without much of a drop-off, particularly on defense. And I would imagine that because KSU relies on JC transfers so much, that depth is never going to be a strong suit for the program.

To me the challenge KSU usually presents is a running QB.Â How good of a runner is the projected QB?

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - winflop - 08-22-2016

Teams that lack depth - especially in the front 7 - usually struggle in the second half against the TWU.Â Sounds like McLovin could have a field day in the second half.

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - CTcard - 08-22-2016

(08-22-2016, 07:51 AM)winflop link Wrote:Teams that lack depth - especially in the front 7 - usually struggle in the second half against the TWU.Â Sounds like McLovin could have a field day in the second half.

Does the OL still call itself the Tunnel Workers' Union?
I haven't heard it from the team for a while, but I may not have been paying attention.

That nickname came about in the Harbaugh years when they were a bunch of generally unheralded guys on an unknown unit who decided they were going to work really hard to lead a team turnaround. Given that was a long time ago, and that these days our OL is very known and mostly made up of very heralded recruits, the name doesn't seem to fit particularly well anymore. [Not that fit has ever been particularly important to sports-nicknames.]

More importantly, we don't really know what we have on the OL for 2016. The open practice reports have been a little scary, but of course practice is practice - who knows the circumstances or just what they were really trying to work on.

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - DC Cat - 08-22-2016

(08-22-2016, 07:34 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:My takeaway from that description is Kansas State lacks quality depth.Â Every team suffers injuries to some degree.Â And though Stanford has in general stayed healthy this decade, without good depth, it's tough to win conference championships.Â It's not just having your starters stay healthy.Â It's having enough guys to play to spell the starters without much of a drop-off, particularly on defense. And I would imagine that because KSU relies on JC transfers so much, that depth is never going to be a strong suit for the program.

To me the challenge KSU usually presents is a running QB.Â How good of a runner is the projected QB?

This is 100% true. When we have been successful it is because we have managed to stay healthy. To me this is a major reason why we have such a poor record in bowl games. Luckily for us we get Stanford in our first game instead of some sort of mid-season matchup. So hopefully that means we can avoid fielding a team lacking our best playmakers.

Because I haven't seem him play more than two snaps as a QB I don't know whether Ertz is explosive as a runner. So, I posed the question to our message board and the first and probably most accurate response was:

"I hear he is pretty good, when his knee isn't exploding into a million pieces."

While we won't know exactly how well Ertz will run, I guarantee you that our offensive philosophy will have him running straight at the defense a lot. There is also word that he has an above average arm and is the most accurate passer on the team. Alex Delton (RS Fr. QB), who is also back this year from injury, is said be our best runner. He is quick and very elusive.

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - DC Cat - 08-22-2016

(08-22-2016, 08:03 AM)CTcard link Wrote:[quote author=winflop link=topic=15451.msg168105#msg168105 date=1471877508]
Teams that lack depth - especially in the front 7 - usually struggle in the second half against the TWU.Â Sounds like McLovin could have a field day in the second half.

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - FarmBoy - 08-22-2016

Perhaps I'm naive, but I don't have that much concern about the OL. Sure, they need to gel (2014 is evidence that talent doesn't overcome chemistry/communication defficiencies), but the guys have been in the program and our use of the ogre means they have experience even if not starting. QB is definitely a question, but it should be a soft landing for whoever wins the job given how stacked the box will be, they won't be expected to carry the team.

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - rudruff - 08-22-2016

I don't recall an off-season where the OL looked good during the Hogan era.

The expectations I have for the K-State game are that Solomon Thomas is a problem for their OL and CMac is a problem for their defense in that they either can't contain him or have to commit so many assets to stop him that everyone else is open.

I would like to see a lot of the trips receivers with CMac on the opposite side pass option against a LB/S that worked against SC, Iowa and UW last year. Any defense that hasn't spent time preparing for that this year should fire their coordinator.

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - stupac2 - 08-22-2016

(08-22-2016, 08:03 AM)CTcard link Wrote:Does the OL still call itself the Tunnel Workers' Union?
I haven't heard it from the team for a while, but I may not have been paying attention.

I've seen it a few times this offseason, including here: http://www.sfgate.com/collegesports/article/Competition-is-over-at-center-for-Stanford-9156646.php

That says that they still call themselves the TWU, though it doesn't quote Burkett as saying it.

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - Hulk01 - 08-22-2016

Defenses won't stack the boxes because it hasn't worked: Mac averaged more yards per carry against eight or larger boxes last year than he averaged against standard sets.Â

And you also have to think twice about bringing safeties up against receivers like Rector who can beat them deep, and against any offense with serious speed.Â Defenses stackedÂ boxes when we lacked a deep threat or an true breakaway playmaker a la Mac and Love.Â They'd be idiots to try that now.Â

As a DC against this set of Stanford skill players, I'd run a 5-4-3 using a Cover Three and hope that the field judge couldn't count.

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - OutsiderFan - 08-22-2016

At the risk of this thread becoming dominated by Stanford fans talking about Stanford, how about DC Cat telling us who KSU's best players are at every level on defense and position group on offense? IOW..

DL, LB, DB, OL, WR/TE, RB, QB

I've come to realize the pre-season magazines usually miss quite a bit, often overlooking some and incorrectly identifying others as key cogs when they really aren't.

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - FarmBoy - 08-22-2016

I've seen it a couple of times as well. It's funny that it lives on. The origin is that Chris Marinelli's dad was part of the Big Dig is Boston, which I assume was largely done by the actual TWU. Notably, that public works project was one of the worst underforecasted projects of all time.

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - Spiny_Norman - 08-22-2016

A question for the long time fans - when did Stanford last have a player from the state of Kansas?Â Nate Lohn and Ben Ladner were from KC, Missouri.Â I cannot recall a single player from Kansas going back at least 20 years.

Re: Scouting report on Kansas state? - Hulk01 - 08-22-2016

Tom Watson, Shawnee Mission, '67.

I know he doesn't count.Â

I can recall players from Connecticut, Delaware, and Arkansas, and several from Ontario, Canada, but none from:

Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine
Alaska
Rhode Island
North Dakota
South Dakota
West Virginia
KentuckyÂ

And I can recall at least two big Montanans, but no one from Wyoming.

Any help here?Â What states have yet to supply a Stanford scholarship football player?