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Washington at Utah discussion - OutsiderFan - 10-23-2016

Well it turns out the biggest game of the Pac-12 season is Washington at Utah next week, so big that College Game Day will be there.  This game is fascinating to me in a couple ways, so if there are some not just Stanford Pac-12 fans, I'd appreciate some discussion about this game from a Stanford perspective.

First of all, Stanford has played the toughest teams on its schedule through its first seven games.  Washington has played literally nobody:  Rutgers, Idaho, and Portland State OOC, the three worst teams in the Pac-12 (Arizona, Oregon, and OSU), and a Stanford team that can't get out of its own way on offense.  Washington's opponents are a combined 16-28, one of the teams is a 2-5 FCS team, and a Rutgers who's only two wins were against Howard and New Mexico State.  Stanford is by far and away the best team the Huskies have played, and they almost lost at a terrible Arizona team.

Utah, OTOH, has played much better competition in BYU, ןɐɔ, Under Stanford Control (again), and UCLA.  Utah's opponents are a combined 22-24, but those teams themselves have played better teams than the ones UW has played for the most part, like Alabama, Texas A&M, UCLA, Boise State, and Utah.

My theory:  While Washington eked out a victory at a bad Arizona to remain undefeated, Utah just missed eeking out a victory at a much better than Arizona, ןɐɔ.  So don't get fooled by the rankings, Utah is on par or better than Washington.  Moreover, Utah has really been tested by pretty good teams, even if their records don't indicate, in both U$C and UCLA.  Washington has no such competition.

Chris Peterson and Kyle Wittingham are quite possibly the two best head coaches in the Pac-12, so I am expecting quite an incredible game.  Washington State and Colorado still could get there, but this could be a preview of the Pac-12 championship game.

I like Utah at home.  If they can score, and they proved they can against a not terrible UCLA defense, and play a bit better at home as I think is reasonable, they can pull the upset.

Re: Washington at Utah discussion - OutsiderFan - 10-24-2016

Seriously, nobody has anything to say about what could be the biggest Pac-12 game of the year?

Re: Washington at Utah discussion - stupac2 - 10-24-2016

(10-24-2016, 08:49 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Seriously, nobody has anything to say about what could be the biggest Pac-12 game of the year?

I don't. Haven't followed the teams and frankly don't really care. Having a Pac-12 team in the playoff would be nice I guess, but I don't believe that conference strength matters for anything so I have a hard time getting worked up about it. I probably won't watch this game, though it depends on what's going on on Saturday.

Re: Washington at Utah discussion - BostonCard - 10-24-2016

(10-24-2016, 08:49 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Seriously, nobody has anything to say about what could be the biggest Pac-12 game of the year?

Sadly, the game has no impact on Stanford.

FWIW, this is going to be Washington's first tough game; unfortunately, it was not the game between us.  Wilner has hammered them hard for their schedule, ranking them below 2-loss Wisconsin.  I still expect the Huskies to win, but it will be interesting to see if they are as good as their record, or whether it is due to a cupcake schedule.

BC

Re: Washington at Utah discussion - JeffInCorvallis - 10-24-2016

Sadly, I think it unlikely that a Pac-12 team makes the playoff.  The only team with a real shot is Washington, and if they do make it I expect them to get hammered by someone like Michigan or Alabama.

Re: Washington at Utah discussion - martyup - 10-24-2016

If UW was our only loss, this would have been a crucial game for us.  At this point, I'm with BC.  I've got a feeling that UW is better, but UT is tough at home. It should be a good game.  I guess I would prefer a Pac-12 team make it to the playoffs.  However, I can't see any team beating Bama this season.

Re: Washington at Utah discussion - BostonCard - 10-24-2016

(10-24-2016, 09:37 AM)martyup link Wrote:If UW was our only loss, this would have been a crucial game for us.  At this point, I'm with BC.  I've got a feeling that UW is better, but UT is tough at home. It should be a good game.  I guess I would prefer a Pac-12 team make it to the playoffs.  However, I can't see any team beating Bama this season.

I didn't see Penn State beating Ohio State, so there is that.  Still, Alabama has hummed along, beating a series of good teams.

BC

Re: Washington at Utah discussion - Card Fan in OR - 10-24-2016

Haven't paid attention to the Utes, so no real idea of their quality. They are, however, easy to root for as a traditional underdog with a head coach who seems like a good guy and gets the most out of his teams. Even in SLC, though, I would expect Udub to prevail. They seem genuinely good to me.

After being a Stanford fan, though, I am a Pac-xx fan. I want someone from the Pac to go to the playoffs--every year. If it can't be us, I want someone else there carrying the banner for Pac-12 football. The Huskies look like a serious candidate to me. I don't really care who wins this contest (although it seems I should since UW has a better chance to make the playoffs than UU).

If the Huskies were to get in as a 2 or 3 seed, I could see them in the National Championship game. Alabama is very, very good, but they're not invincible. So, I guess I am slightly rooting for the Huskies Saturday, provided they "run the table." If they don't, then I would be happy to see the Utes teach them a lesson.

Re: Washington at Utah discussion - fullmetal - 10-25-2016

Our hopes and rooting interests have no bearing on whether teams win or lose on Saturdays...but I would like to see the Huskies make the playoffs and barbeque the golden cows of southeastern football.

Re: Washington at Utah discussion - BostonCard - 10-25-2016

One advantage of Washington making the playoffs would be that it would move every other Pac-12 team up a slot in the bowl lineup.  So, assuming we win two more games (which these days no longer looks like a sure thing), web would be slotted for an otherwise better bowl than we would have gotten.

BC

Re: Washington at Utah discussion - Ratmandoo - 10-25-2016

(10-25-2016, 10:45 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:One advantage of Washington making the playoffs would be that it would move every other Pac-12 team up a slot in the bowl lineup.  So, assuming we win two more games (which these days no longer looks like a sure thing), web would be slotted for an otherwise better bowl than we would have gotten.

BC

That's assuming the second place Pac-12 team is worthy of playing in a New Year's day bowl. That Rose Bowl slot doesn't automatically go to a Pac-12 team if the first place team makes the playoffs, right?

Re: Washington at Utah discussion - CTcard - 10-25-2016

(10-24-2016, 08:49 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Seriously, nobody has anything to say about what could be the biggest Pac-12 game of the year?

Okay,

1. It's not the biggest game of the year in the Pac 12.

IF these are the best two teams in the conference, they'll meet again in the conference championship game, which would be the biggest game of the year in the Pac 12.
IF these are not the two best teams, well then it's not the biggest game.

2. Utah does not look to be in UW's league to me.

Utah's schedule is a little tougher, Sagarin #52 versus Sagarin #85. That's a projected difference of around six and a half points.
[Stanford, by the way, still has the Sagarin #1 most difficult schedule in the country. That would appear to start changing now.]

UW has won by an average of 38.7 points, second in the NCAA. Utah has won by 6.0 points per game. That extra 32.7 points more than covers the Sagarin difference in schedule strength.

Utah has scraped by a lot. A one point victory over BYU, a last second victory over $C fueled by three $C fumbles, a five point victory over OSU, the rather strange one-score shoot out over UCLA, and of course they lost to a bad ןɐɔ team.

UW by contrast, hasn't found a team that can play a competitive context against them other than their trap game vs UA. It hasn't been a murderers' row, but it hasn't been close either.

Re: Washington at Utah discussion - BostonCard - 10-25-2016

Yes, the Rose Bowl slot goes to The next best Pac-12 team if the champ goes to the playoff...

Quote:The 103rd Rose Bowl Game will be held on January 2, 2017 at the Rose Bowl Stadium. The game will feature the champion of the Pac-12 and Big Ten Conference. If the Conference champion is selected to participate in the College Football Playoff Semifinal, the Rose Bowl Game will select the next best team in the conference. The Rose Bowl Game will host a College Football Playoff Semifinal in 2018.

BC

Re: Washington at Utah discussion - Ratmandoo - 10-25-2016

(10-25-2016, 04:02 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Yes, the Rose Bowl slot goes to The next best Pac-12 team if the champ goes to the playoff...

Quote:The 103rd Rose Bowl Game will be held on January 2, 2017 at the Rose Bowl Stadium. The game will feature the champion of the Pac-12 and Big Ten Conference. If the Conference champion is selected to participate in the College Football Playoff Semifinal, the Rose Bowl Game will select the next best team in the conference. The Rose Bowl Game will host a College Football Playoff Semifinal in 2018.

BC

Thanks for that BC. Of course now I feel like a dick for not looking it up my own damn self. Again, thanks for covering off on my laziness.