Bowl game projections and questions

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Bowl game projections and questions - Mick - 11-19-2016

We're now 6-3 in the Pac-12, 8-3 overall.Â For grins, let's assume we finish either third or fourth in the Pac-12.Â What are our likeliest bowl alternatives?Â Odds of each?

Re: Bowl game question - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 11-19-2016

Assuming the conference will not be represented in the playoff, #3 or 4 will likely slot us in either the Holiday or Foster Farms. Per Wikipedia, the bowls select Pac-12 teams in the following order:

#1 -- CFP/Rose/NY6
#2 -- Alamo
#3 -- Holiday
#4 -- Foster Farms
#5 -- Sun
#6 -- Las Vegas
#7 -- Cactus

I don't know if we can still finish third, however. I think the range we should be eyeballing is #4-6.

Re: Bowl game question - CTcard - 11-19-2016

(11-19-2016, 07:13 PM)Mick link Wrote:We're now 6-3 in the Pac-12, 8-3 overall.Â For grins, let's assume we finish either third or fourth in the Pac-12.Â What are our likeliest bowl alternatives?Â Odds of each?

First off, even with Utah losing, it is unlikely Stanford can finish above 5th (but go UCLA).
It would have helped if WSU had beaten Colorado, but now we'll have more losses than both those teams for sure.

There's still a good chance that the Pac gets 2 teams in the CFP-determined bowls. So, my initial guess is that fifth in the conference would end up in bowl #4. However, since we were just in the Foster Farms Bowl, one would think there might be some kind of horse-trading deal that would have us end up in the Holiday or the Sun.Â

Re: Bowl game question - Snorlax94 - 11-19-2016

Amazingly, I still think the Alamo Bowl is still a theoretical possibility.Â But because there's so much parity in the conference standings, if next week's games go amiss, Stanford could drop quite a bit.

In the best case scenario, Washington wins out, annihilates Washington state in the Apple cup (knocking them out and making them unattractive to bowl games), and wins the pac-12 championship and goes to the CFP, vacating the Rose Bowl.

If Colorado can blow out Utah, Utah will have a weaker record than us, especially if they lose badly. And I think teams with recent losses are less attractive to bowl games than teams on a hot streak,Â especially if a team has a marquee brand and a marquee player like last year's AP player of the year.

So if all this happens and Colorado goes to the Rose Bowl and Washington State and Utah end the season with two game losing streaks, Stanford could be up next. One problem is Under Stanford Control (again) which is on a hot streak. But if they keep winning they may be invited to an NY6 ball game knocking them out of the pac-12 selection order.

So if all those things happen, Stanford would be up next to go to the Alamo bowl, which would be a very cool bowl game.Â But because there would be so many teams with only one more loss, there is the risk that many bowl games could choose to skip us also, which could really suck.

In the worst case scenario, somehow things blow up enough that no one makes the CFP and there's a five way tie for first place, in which case Stanford would be fifth or sixth, which could push us to the Vegas or Cactus Bowl.

Re: Bowl game question - ChicagoCard - 11-20-2016

(11-19-2016, 11:49 PM)Snorlax94 link Wrote:One problem is Under Stanford Control (again) which is on a hot streak. But if they keep winning they may be invited to an NY6 ball game knocking them out of the pac-12 selection order.

That would mean 3 Pac-12 teams in the NY6 bowls. Working backwards that would mean 8 slots in NY6 bowls for the other power 4 conferences (because 1 of those goes to Boise or Western Michigan). Probably the Big 10 gets 3 teams though. But in the SEC, Auburn is the next ranked team after Alabama at #15. And if they lose to Alabama they'll have 4 losses. LSU is #16 but they just lost to Florida. I guess if Florida were to lose to FSU, then maybe the SEC gets nobody else in the NY6 bowls after Alabama.

Re: Bowl game question - CTcard - 11-20-2016

(11-19-2016, 11:49 PM)Snorlax94 link Wrote:In the worst case scenario, somehow things blow up enough that no one makes the CFP and there's a five way tie for first place, in which case Stanford would be fifth or sixth, which could push us to the Vegas or Cactus Bowl.

That's not so much the worst case scenario as a done deal.

Right now the top six are:
UW 7-1, WSU 7-1, Colorado 7-1, U$C 7-2, Stanford 6-3, Utah 5-3.
U$C and Stanford are done.
Stanford cannot catch any of the one loss teams.
So, Stanford will finish either 5th or tied for 5th and 6th.

Since the contracts/pecking order system of bowls has been established, there's actually been very little in the way of maneuvering to take teams out of order. Most of what has happened has been to avoid taking a team to the same bowl too many times in a row (or almost in a row). I'm not quite sure what other teams' recent trips have been, but for Stanford that might mean an effort by the Foster Farms bowl to trade up or down.

Right now I'd bet good money on Foster Farms or Sun.

Bowl projections - washingtonismoney - 11-20-2016

CBS Sports: wake forest versus Stanford, Sun Bowl
SB Nation: Pitt vs. Stanford, Sun Bowl
CFB Talk: Iowa vs. Stanford, Holiday Bowl

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/11/20/13689846/bowl-game-projections-2016-college-football-playoff-predictions
http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/11/20/2016-college-football-bowl-projections-after-week-12/

Re: Bowl game question - CrazedZooChimp - 11-20-2016

I think it's very unlikely that the Pac-12 doesn't have two ny6 teams (playoffs or not). My guess, like 80% chance we're in the Sun, 19% Holiday, 1% Vegas.

My prediction?

UW and CU in NY6 bowls (playoffs, Rose, Cotton)
$C in the Alamo
Utah in the Holiday
WSU in the Chicken
Stanford in the Sun
Maybe some other team gets a waiver and plays in the Vegas, or ASU actually beats UA and makes it.

There is a slight chance that we are picked for the holiday, if WSU and Utah both lose and it's decided that because Stanford has never been there and is on a bit of a hot streak (and has CMac), they are more appealing than a WSU/Utah on losing streaks.

Re: Bowl game question - Spiny_Norman - 11-20-2016

A reminder about the pecking order and the selection rules.

#1 College Football Playoff or Rose Bowl
#2 The Alamo Bowl versus Big 12 #2
#3 The Holiday Bowl versus Big Ten
#4 The Foster Farms Bowl versus Big Ten
#5 The Sun Bowl versus ACC #3-6
#6 The Las Vegas Bowl versus Mountain West #1 or BYU
#7 The Cactus Bowl versus Big 12 #6

The Alamo, Holiday and Foster Farms bowls have flexibility: They can pass one team in favor of another as long as there is no more than a one-game difference in conference record.

The Sun, Las Vegas and Cactus bowls must select from the remaining pool of teams in order of league record.

CrazedZooChimp, your scenario would be infeasible since the Holiday Bowl could not pass WSU (7-2) for Utah (5-4), assuming that UW and CU win their rivalry games.

Re: Bowl projections - winflop - 11-20-2016

For Stanford to have a shot at the Holiday Bowl, a few things need to line up:
1. UW will have to win out and make the playoff
2. Colorado has to beat Utah

That would put Stanford in the #5 slot behind UW (8-1), WSU/U$C/Colorado (7-2).Â Rose takes runner-up Colorado, Alamo takes WSU, and Holiday passes up local U$C for Stanford.

That would be nice but I expect we will end up in El Paso.

Re: Bowl projections - washingtonismoney - 11-20-2016

To be honest I care less about the destination at this point -- if it's not Rose or playoff, who cares? -- than the opponent. I'd rather face Pitt than Iowa or Wake.

Re: Bowl game projections and questions - HisKneeWasDown - 11-20-2016

An Iowa/Standard rematch would be weird.

Re: Bowl game projections and questions - Bruce Wang - 11-20-2016

My preference is whichever bowl gives us the opponent that fields the best defense.Â I want to see Keller tested before next season.

Re: Bowl game projections and questions - martyup - 11-20-2016

If we could have scored 11 points againstÂ Colorado, this would be a different conversation.Â As my Momma used to say, "You take what you get and don't throw a fit."

I just hope that we pound our bowl opponent into the turf.

Re: Bowl game projections and questions - Embo - 11-20-2016

(11-20-2016, 12:51 PM)HisKneeWasDown link Wrote:An Iowa/Stanford rematch would be weird.

And assuming the travel ban on LSJUMB is lifted, no one would leave their seats to miss the halftime show.

Re: Bowl game projections and questions - CTcard - 11-20-2016

(11-20-2016, 12:14 PM)winflop link Wrote:That would be nice but I expect we will end up in El Paso

I expect that we'll end up fifth, move up a spot as the Pac 12 gets two NY6 bowl teams, and we're back with the chickens.
Much whining ensues.

Re: Bowl game projections and questions - terry - 11-20-2016

(11-20-2016, 01:52 PM)Embo link Wrote:[quote author=HisKneeWasDown link=topic=16137.msg180006#msg180006 date=1479671506]
An Iowa/Stanford rematch would be weird.

And assuming the travel ban on LSJUMB is lifted, no one would leave their seats to miss the halftime show.
[/quote]

That could be a truly fun halftime show.

Re: Bowl game projections and questions - CrazedZooChimp - 11-20-2016

(11-20-2016, 03:36 PM)CTcard link Wrote:[quote author=winflop link=topic=16137.msg180003#msg180003 date=1479669297]
That would be nice but I expect we will end up in El Paso

I expect that we'll end up fifth, move up a spot as the Pac 12 gets two NY6 bowl teams, and we're back with the chickens.
Much whining ensues.
[/quote]

The chicken bowl will pass us over since we went recently, and we won't be two wins over the team below us.

Re: Bowl game projections and questions - CTcard - 11-20-2016

(11-20-2016, 05:51 PM)CrazedZooChimp link Wrote:The chicken bowl will pass us over since we went recently, and we won't be two wins over the team below us.

Actually, yes. I do think there is a likliehood that the chickens would work on a swap. And if we end up tied with Utah no reason for them not to go for the Utes.

But I also think they'd be reluctant to actually swap teams if there is a clear finish order. Usually when the bowls do so there is some kind of mutual agreement with the other bowl getting the juggled team and/or the team itself. In this case, I would guess Stanford would prefer the Sun as well to give the kids a trip.

Re: Bowl game projections and questions - Farm93 - 11-20-2016

I must say I am far less worried about Stanford's bowl than the other things going on in the Pac-12.

Colorado wins over Utah, then Colorado vs Apple Cup winner in Pac-12 CG.Â If UW wins Pac-12 CG then likely UW goes to CFP.Â Colorado to Rose. etc.Â Works for me.
If Colorado wins Pac-12 then maybe gets into CFP (doubtful).Â More likely Colorado is Rose, and everyone falls a slot.Â As undesirable as that would be it is better than if Colorado falls on Saturday.
If Colorado stumbles, then USC vs Apple Cup winner in Pac-12 CG.Â If UW wins Pac-12 CG then likely UW goes to CFP.Â SC goes to Rose.Â Not happy about that idea honestly.Â
If USC wins Pac-12 CG then USC goes to Rose Bowl, UW goes to Holiday, etc.Â Even less happy about that idea as USC wins the Pac-12 and all other teams drop down a bowl.

Got to say I really, really want Colorado to win on Saturday.Â PUHLEZE!!!!Â I think UW beats Colorado easily, but either way I can accept the Pac-12 CG result and bowl tie-in implications.Â If Colorado loses...ugh...