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Finally, a real upset - Viking_Guy - 03-22-2011

#7 seed Louisville takes out Stanford\'s #2, Xavier.  Amber Harris and Tashia Phillips are no longer a potential obstacle between the Cardinal and the Final Four.  And the player who really seemed to want to come to Stanford, Shoni Schimmel, scored 33 points on 12-18 shooting, including 6-11 3s.

Louisville will play Gonzaga, while Stanford will take on North Carolina, both next Saturday evening.  6 and 8:30 PT.

VG

Re: Finally, a real upset - 81alum - 03-22-2011

I\'ve been wondering if this is actually a good thing for us.  It makes it that much more likely that--if we advance past North Carolina--we will play Gonzaga on what is essentially their home court.  While it has been a long time--our game against Gonzaga was our closest victory of the season, I think.

Given a choice between Xavier on a neutral court or Gonzaga on a home court--I think I\'d take Xavier.  But perhaps Louisville will take out Gonzaga!  We can hope.

Any thoughts on North Carolina?  What kind of a team are they, and how will we match up with them?

Re: Finally, a real upset - fyao - 03-22-2011

Acknowledging the results of the regular season as well as UCLA\'s loss, it seems counter-intuitive to prefer to play an 11 seed on their home court than a 2 seed on a neutral court.  There is a lot of weird transitivity in college sports.  I\'m happy Xavier is out.

Re: Finally, a real upset - Viking_Guy - 03-22-2011

81-

UNC plays high-pressure, high-risk basketball.  They rebound extremely well, with Jessica Breland leading the way, and have a quality post rotation that can match up pretty well against us.  They also have two solid perimeter players in Cetera de Graffenreid and Italee Lucas.  Two good options off the bench for the interior and small forward in Rolle (who had some brobdingnagian plays against Duke when the Tar Heels beat them) and Ruffin-Pratt.

That being said, if we can take care of the ball on offense, UNC has a tendency to self-destruct.  They don\'t shoot particularly well, and count on transition to score.  And their gambling defense leaves them open quite a bit; it will be interesting to see if Stanford actually can punish them when it beats their pressure.

At least that\'s my opinion.  Key player - Kayla.  They don\'t have a good match-up for her.

VG


Re: Finally, a real upset - 81alum - 03-22-2011

Thank you, VG, that is very informative.  I will go find a couple of their old games online to watch and I will look for those tendencies you mention.

In the meantime I was scrutinizing their stats without knowing anything else about them, and here are a couple of impressions.

While Italee is their leading scorer she is just a 33% three point shooter.  In fact, they don\'t take many 3 point shots, so she must be getting her points in other ways.  Is she a slasher?  Are they a little one dimensional and vulnerable to a zone?

Statistically their defense stands out.  Rolle is 6\'6" and has 81 blocks, while Breland is 6\'3" with 60 blocks, making them the 4th best shot blocking team.  The two of them together have almost as many blocks as Griner.  Of course, they probably were not collected by blocking an athlete of Nneka\'s caliber.

NC gets 11 steals a game, which is #27 in the country--not as high as UCLA, for example.  Their point guard gets about 3 of those steals a game, but I think some of them come off those blocks.  So yes, avoiding turnovers is critical.

Overall, they are slightly better than we are in holding down opponent\'s FG% (5th vs Stanford at 6th).  

All their bigs shoot in the 48-50% range, that confirms your assessment, compared with a Nneka or Chiney that are now coming in at 59% each.  Laura Broomfield is quite the offensive rebounder, with nearly twice as many offensive rebounds as Jessica Breland, who is their second leading scorer.

They are an experienced team.  Both guards and Breland are seniors, and they rarely play any frosh.  

The key, even more than against most teams, is avoiding turnovers--especially on bad interior passes--and boxing out to minimize offensive rebounds.  Fundamentals.  



Re: Finally, a real upset - 81alum - 03-23-2011

OK, I\'ve watched a couple of NC games now and listened to their last press conference and am beginning to get a feel for what is coming.

Their "ideal" possession consists in grabbing a defensive rebound, throwing a 30\' outlet pass downcourt, then passing again to someone sprinting to the basket or open for a 3.  They hate dribbling the ball down the court if there is an alternative.

As their players and coach put it, even if they are not successful scoring, they wear down the other team by making them sprint back on defense over and over again.  

When stuck in the half court they do a lot of very high entrance passes since they are used to having taller bigs who can go up high to get the pass.  I even saw them deliberately bounce it off the backboard a couple times--a kind of artificial O-board strategy?

Their coach and players are convinced that they are finally playing their best basketball of the year, in the ACC tournament and now the NCAAs.  They commented on their earlier inconsistency but think they are now in synch.  Let\'s hope that is wishful thinking.





Re: Finally, a real upset - terry - 03-23-2011

Quote:Cetera de Graffenreid and Italee Lucas.
You\'re just making up those names to see if anyone is paying attention, right?

Re: Finally, a real upset - Viking_Guy - 03-23-2011

Terry--

Well, there\'s also Walteia Rolle, their major post sub.

They match up really well height-wise - Breland 6\'3", starting center Chay Shegog (and no, I\'m not making that up either) is 6\'5", and Rolle is 6\'6".  That\'s their post rotation, along with Laura Broomfield, 6\'1".  Krista Gross and Tierra Ruffin-Pratt generally play 3 at 6\'0" and 5\'10", respectively.  Lucas is 5\'8", and DeGraffenreid is 5\'6" at the point.  So we should be able to make entry passes over the top, as long as we can break their pressure.

Breland (who\'s come back from treatment for Hodgkin\'s), Lucas and DeGraffenreid are all seniors.

Of the players who get the majority of minutes, only Lucas has hit more than 30% of her 3-pointers, and she\'s only at 33%. (Team is at 29% as a whole). They only shoot about 43% overall, but make up for it by averaging 11 steals and outrebounding the opposition (as I said, they hammered Kentucky on the boards 55-31).

Ball security, that\'s the thing.

VG


Re: Finally, a real upset - 81alum - 03-23-2011

Probably be Pedersen on Breland?

Rolle had 7 blocks the game NC beat Duke, including a block at the very end of the game that preserved their victory.

Lucas gets a lot of her team leading points off those long outlet passes.  She is a streaky shooter, though, in the half court.

Their bigs do not look terribly creative or agile under the basket.  They get their share, but after watching Nneka and Chiney they look rather ordinary to me, offensively.  Breland has a decent jumper with a little range, though.

Re: Finally, a real upset - Viking_Guy - 03-23-2011

81-

Actually, I would bet on Chiney rather than Kayla (Pedersen, btw) guarding Breland; Kayla\'s a lot more accustomed to defending outside the lane and out to the three point line.  I\'d expect her on Gross/Ruffin-Pratt.  Although I REALLY liked her dropping down inside against the Johnnies in a couple of the big lineups on Monday (when Chiney was sitting, with Tinkle, Ruef and Pohlen on the perimeter).  Given her normal height advantage at the 3, I\'d like to see more of it (maybe with Nneka high post and Chiney weakside).

Rolle\'s blocks are impressive, but she doesn\'t have much offense (as you say, their inside game is rather rudimentary).  Which is why I think she doesn\'t start.

Yep, Lucas is the only one I\'m concerned about lighting up from outside.

VG


Re: Finally, a real upset - 81alum - 03-23-2011

Thanks for the spelling correction.  That is quite embarrassing on my part and I really do know better!

I see what you mean about Kayla guarding the 3.  I was mixed up thinking that they were starting three bigs and that Breland might play the 3 since she has a jumper.  But looking back at the last few box scores I see that they have been starting the third guard Gross there, which of course makes you right as usual :)

So--do you think this will be how we defend them?

1. DeGraffenreid 5-6  and Lindy 5-8
2. Lucas 5-8 and Jeanette 6-0
3. Gross 6-0 and Kayla 6-4
4. Breland 6-3 and Chiney 6-3
5. Shegog 6-5 and Nneka 6-2

I wonder if they will change their lineup for us, though.  And when they are on defense, they don\'t have any single player who can handle Nneka, so I presume it will be some sort of zone?




NC stats (v. Stanford stats) - M T - 03-26-2011

This should be a fast game, and should result in a high score.  Probably will result in a relatively high number of turnovers and a (for the tournament) a relatively large number of fouls.

Given NC\'s propensity for fast play, maybe Toni would start rather than Lindy.  If Toni\'s ankle is ok, Toni will probably play the majority of the game.  Speed-wise, I could see Tara playing only the top 6 players.  But she again might go with a tall lineup at some point.

I would recommend avoiding 3ptrs early in the game as misses will play into their game.  Post up the O team and get the ball to one or the other.  If Stanford can get good offensive rebounding (or never miss!), Stanford can cut down on their speed advantage.  Of course we need to avoid losing the ball at the guard positions.

OMG!  We\'re playing against Nicole Powell!!  Fortunately she\'s only played in 12 games.

Stanford - NC:
 33  -  36  games
 80.0 - 78.2 pts/game
 54.8 - 61.4 opp pts/game
 55% - 47% 2PT%
 36% - 29% 3PT%
 75% - 69% FT%
 29% - 22% 3pt Att/FGA
  54  -  68   FGA/game  
 18.1 - 16.5 Asst/game
 61% - 56% Asst/FG
 14.1 - 17.6 TO/game
 15.3 - 20.6 opp TO/game
 1.28 - 0.94 Asst/TO
  42% - 42%  Off. Reb. %
  70% - 64%  Def. Reb. %
  14.5 - 16.5 PF/gm
  16.8 - 18.6 opp PF/gm
  3.5 - 6.5 Blk/gm
  7.3 - 11 Stl/gm
 
The two main guards play about 29min/game.  Three players in low 20s.  Four players in upper teens.  So, NC has more breadth than Stanford.  (Stanford has two in the 30s, one in the upper 20s, 3 in upper teens)

Their players in points per 40 minutes playing time:
#50 22.5; #51 22.2;  #20 17.6;  #33 17.5; #22  10.8; #32 17.9; #44 10.7; #01 12.5; #21 10.9
Stanford:
NO: 23.9; CO: 19.7; JP: 17.9;  KP: 15.8;  SB: 17.3; JT: 13.8; TK 12.9; LL: 8.5;  MR: 8.3

NC losses: Ga Tech, UConn, Md, Miami, NC State, Ga Tech, Duke, Duke
Duke is a tall team (6\'5", 6\'3",6\'2") with lots of depth.
Ga Tech is a relatively short team except the center (6\'5", 6\'1", 3 guards) with most time played by 6 players.