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Our Favourite Whipping Boy - CTcard - 08-21-2017

Wilner has published his game by game predictions for Stanford this season.
http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/08/21/stanford-football-projecting-the-season-game-by-game/

While I don't think Wilner has any particular prognostication powers (which in and of itself isn't a put down), it may be a vehicle to spur some discussion as we await the opener.

Here are a few key quotations from Wilner, followed by my responses.

"The Cardinal will have impressive but just-short-of-elite season."
Fair enough, but it's hardly going out on a limb.
And, what Wilner calls impressive would probably be enough to cause a fair amount of Shawgrumbling [9-3 again].

"Based on Cal’s post-Sydney experience, Stanford will need every minute of the bye week to recuperate from the travel and body clock adjustment."
I fear that could be true, and it comes at a bad time with $C looming. Thought it is also quite possible that San Diego State was merely a better team than cal was last year. [Two weeks after their Sydney game, cal lost to SDSU on the road 40-45.]

"[U$C]  Not close in the fourth quarter."
Wilner has really bought into the resurgence of $C thing. If we lose "Not close in the fourth quarter", that will be the first time this will have happened since pre-Harbaugh.
[The 2008 game (Harbaugh year #2) may also qualify, but technically I might be okay here. We were only down 17-24 at the start of the fourth quarter (still close), but were down three scores by 7 minutes left.]


Wilner predicts a loss to SDSU.
That would be a source of lots of Shawgrumbling.

"Stanford rises up to hand the Huskies, who have commanding division lead at this point, their first defeat."
Now he is just being cute, but had to balance the predicted losses to SDSU and WSU.

-----------------
It appears that Wilner is changing his College Hotline blog to a Pac 12 Hotline blog. Given that he already preferred conference and national stories to local stuff, it's not clear that will make any difference but I certainly wouldn't look for his coverage of the local teams to go up.




Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - stupac2 - 08-21-2017

Why on earth would it take two weeks to adjust to a time zone change? That's just silly. Using Cal's experience is inane, for one SDSU was a better team than them last year (41 vs 64 per F+), but also because Stanford is not Cal. I don't think that needs to be elaborated upon.

One thing I don't really understand about the USC hype is where it's coming from. It seems to be basically "DARNOLD LOOKED SO GOOD." Sure, so did Barkley. This is the same dance we've been doing for years, at some point you'd think that the media would cotton on. Oh well.


Anyway, predicting wins/losses is an exercise in futility, I think doing probabilities is more much sane. It's too bad that essentially no one does it.

Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - Hurlburt88 - 08-21-2017

In general time zone adjustment is an hour per day.  I there is some risk it impacts prep focus . . . hopefully not the game itself

Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - Goose - 08-21-2017

(08-21-2017, 02:15 PM)hurlburt88 link Wrote:In general time zone adjustment is an hour per day.  I there is some risk it impacts prep focus . . . hopefully not the game itself
I can say from many personal experiences with that trip that the fact you land before you took off is a good thing. Just go through that day as if it were any other and you will be just fine.

Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - Hulk01 - 08-21-2017

I'm as blindly anti-SC as anyone, but to my eyes--I've watched his games against SC and Penn State twice--Sam Darnold is the best college quarterback since Luck. 


Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - bbm233 - 08-21-2017

(08-21-2017, 03:31 PM)Goose link Wrote:[quote author=hurlburt88 link=topic=17198.msg197486#msg197486 date=1503350142]
In general time zone adjustment is an hour per day.  I there is some risk it impacts prep focus . . . hopefully not the game itself
I can say from many personal experiences with that trip that the fact you land before you took off is a good thing. Just go through that day as if it were any other and you will be just fine.
[/quote]

Ditto, I have done Sydney to the West Coast many times and the key is to stay awake (and preferably go outside and get some sunshine) on the day of return. Do not take a nap! Within two or three days, you should be back to a normal body schedule.

Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - JohnR34231 - 08-21-2017

(08-21-2017, 03:51 PM)Hulk01 link Wrote:I'm as blindly anti-SC as anyone, but to my eyes--I've watched his games against SC and Penn State twice--Sam Darnold is the best college quarterback since Luck.

Assume you mean Washington and Penn State here.
Shaw doesn't go that far but he does consider him the best QB in college football this year.

Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - winflop - 08-22-2017

(08-21-2017, 05:20 PM)bbm233 link Wrote:Do not take a nap!

Back in the days when I travelled more than I do now, an American Airlines international pilot told me the exact opposite. His advice when going overseas was to get a flight that lands as early in the day as possible and take a two-hour nap and then go about your day in the local time zone to the greatest extent possible. The full REM cycle does wonders to reset your body clock. It has worked for me every time since.

Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - Goose - 08-22-2017

(08-22-2017, 04:32 AM)winflop link Wrote:[quote author=bbm233 link=topic=17198.msg197512#msg197512 date=1503361227]
Do not take a nap!

Back in the days when I travelled more than I do now, an American Airlines international pilot told me the exact opposite. His advice when going overseas was to get a flight that lands as early in the day as possible and take a two-hour nap and then go about your day in the local time zone to the greatest extent possible. The full REM cycle does wonders to reset your body clock. It has worked for me every time since.
[/quote]
Since the  SYD-SFO flight takes about 13.5 hours, most people get a short nap on the plane, even if they normally can't sleep on airplanes. Winds aloft can make this flight even longer. Normally, it is shorter than the flight in the other direction, but I have seen it actually be longer when the winds are funny.

Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - CTcard - 08-22-2017

(08-21-2017, 03:51 PM)Hulk01 link Wrote:I'm as blindly anti-SC as anyone, but to my eyes--I've watched his games against SC and Penn State twice--Sam Darnold is the best college quarterback since Luck.

Well, how hard can it be playing against his own team ...

Anyway, I have seen more than two of his games.

Darnold had a great year for a first year QB, certainly one of the best recently. For example, I thought he was a lot more consistent than Rosen was his first year - if perhaps their highlights were similar. A couple of recent guys who I thought were better out of the gate were Marcus Mariotta and Jameis Winston. But Darnold is close enough to their first year level, he could stick with or surpass them. [Both had better stats first year, though Mariotta only by a hair.]

The und game is an interesting watch as one naturally compares Darnold to Kizer, who somehow went in the second round of the draft this past year. Darnold looked good primarily by not being Kizer. He was decisive in the pocket, though not extremely accurate on throws 5+ yards down field. Though even if not always accurate, he threw down field with purpose, unlike Kizer who seemed to simply launch his 5+ yard throws into the air hoping his guys would outathletic the DBs to the ball.  A lot of Darnold's passes were dump-offs (as are many throws in college these days), so his overall completion percentage was fine. And when you have Adoree Jackson taking a dump-screen 50+ yards for a TD that helps your stats. 

Like everyone, he still needs to develop, but most likely Darnold is going to be extremely good as long as he sticks around (well, presumably afterwards as well, but then I won't care much).



Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - lex24 - 08-22-2017

Rice first. But as for SC to me the key will be up front. How well can Stanford run the football. They had over 300 vs SC last year. How is USC's d-line??

Darnold  will do his thing. But Stanford is strong in the d-backfield so they matchup fairly well there . If they can shut down SC's running game they can slow down the Toejams.
They can't win a shootout. But control the clock, keep Darnold in the pocket (he's almost better when the play breaks down) and avoid giving  up big plays - they can win.

Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - 2 for 2028 - 08-22-2017

(08-22-2017, 04:32 AM)winflop link Wrote:[quote author=bbm233 link=topic=17198.msg197512#msg197512 date=1503361227]
Do not take a nap!

Back in the days when I travelled more than I do now, an American Airlines international pilot told me the exact opposite. His advice when going overseas was to get a flight that lands as early in the day as possible and take a two-hour nap and then go about your day in the local time zone to the greatest extent possible. The full REM cycle does wonders to reset your body clock. It has worked for me every time since.
[/quote]

Absolutely

Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - stupac2 - 08-22-2017

Am I the only person in the world that doesn't get jet lag? Stay up until it's night at the new place, sleep to morning, go about your day. I honestly wonder if it's partly because I'm the only one in the world who doesn't drink coffee..

Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - DC 86 - 08-22-2017

(08-22-2017, 08:25 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:Am I the only person in the world that doesn't get jet lag? Stay up until it's night at the new place, sleep to morning, go about your day. I honestly wonder if it's partly because I'm the only one in the world who doesn't drink coffee..
Interesting. I have crossed the dateline several times and I frequently travel coast to coast and never experience jet lag. Have never thought about it but haven't had coffee in 30 years, is there supposed to be a correlation?

Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - Hurlburt88 - 08-22-2017

I am a non-coffee drinker who does get jet-lag, and travels internationally quite often.  Doubt I am statistically significant, though. 

Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - Mick - 08-22-2017

(08-22-2017, 08:16 AM)2 for 2028 link Wrote:[quote author=winflop link=topic=17198.msg197523#msg197523 date=1503401540]
[quote author=bbm233 link=topic=17198.msg197512#msg197512 date=1503361227]
Do not take a nap!

Back in the days when I travelled more than I do now, an American Airlines international pilot told me the exact opposite. His advice when going overseas was to get a flight that lands as early in the day as possible and take a two-hour nap and then go about your day in the local time zone to the greatest extent possible. The full REM cycle does wonders to reset your body clock. It has worked for me every time since.
[/quote]

Absolutely
[/quote]


I've done that since 2000.  Works very, very well.

Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - stupac2 - 08-23-2017

(08-22-2017, 11:21 AM)DC 86 link Wrote:Interesting. I have crossed the dateline several times and I frequently travel coast to coast and never experience jet lag. Have never thought about it but haven't had coffee in 30 years, is there supposed to be a correlation?

Not that I'm aware of, just that my thinking is if you're regularly screwing with your circadian rhythm there's bound to be problems with it.

Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - fullmetal - 08-23-2017

(08-23-2017, 08:24 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=DC 86 link=topic=17198.msg197558#msg197558 date=1503426102]Interesting. I have crossed the dateline several times and I frequently travel coast to coast and never experience jet lag. Have never thought about it but haven't had coffee in 30 years, is there supposed to be a correlation?

Not that I'm aware of, just that my thinking is if you're regularly screwing with your circadian rhythm there's bound to be problems with it.
[/quote]

What's up, residency.

Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - BostonCard - 08-23-2017

(08-23-2017, 01:15 PM)fullmetal link Wrote:[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=17198.msg197602#msg197602 date=1503501876]
[quote author=DC 86 link=topic=17198.msg197558#msg197558 date=1503426102]Interesting. I have crossed the dateline several times and I frequently travel coast to coast and never experience jet lag. Have never thought about it but haven't had coffee in 30 years, is there supposed to be a correlation?

Not that I'm aware of, just that my thinking is if you're regularly screwing with your circadian rhythm there's bound to be problems with it.
[/quote]

What's up, residency.
[/quote]

Yeah, I think my circadian rhythm is permanently messed up.

BC

Re: Our Favourite Whipping Boy - Bruce Wang - 08-23-2017

The crazy hours they put young doctors is something that has puzzled me.  I worked these kinds of hours early in my career but if I screwed up something due to sleep deprivation, some money gets lost here and there and ultimately not much because it's a wash between various errors and somebody would spot something obviously wrong.  If a doctor makes a mistake, somebody could die!