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Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - Printable Version

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Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - ColoradoTree - 10-31-2017

(Note: This is the fourth in a series of posts looking at this year's women's tennis season.  The first post, looking at roster turnover and preseason rankings, is here: http://thecardboard.org/board/index.php?topic=17444.0.  The second post, looking at the kickoff to the fall season, is here:  http://thecardboard.org/board/index.php?topic=17568.0.  The third post, previewing the Northwest Regional tournament held at Stanford two weeks ago, is here: http://thecardboard.org/board/index.php?topic=17728.0)

Starting tomorrow, the Fall Nationals--formally, the 2017 Oracle Intercollegiate Tennis Association National Fall Championships--get started in Indian Wells and Palm Desert, California.  There were a few different paths to this tournament, but in short, you either had to start out ranked highly and then win a little, or you had to win a lot. 

On the Stanford side, we have two singles players who qualified:  sophomore Emily Arbuthnott, and freshman Michaela Gordon, on the strength of making the final at the Northwest Regionals a couple of weeks ago (with Gordon taking the title, 7-5, 6-2).  Given the criteria for selecting the at-large berths, it seemed a mortal lock that junior Melissa Lord (the preseason #7) would get one of those berths.  But somehow, she was not selected, which is disappointing.  Because the criteria were automatic (a combination of unpublished/updated ranking and universal tennis rating, which would reflect results), she either just didn't get enough good wins this fall or she qualified but declined an at-large bid.  (Based on the resumes of some other at-large bids, I'm pretty sure it's the latter.)

Why do I care? 

Because this is a chance to see a couple of our players face off against other players who are either highly ranked or who have had impressive fall seasons.  It won't affect how the Stanford team is ranked in the spring, but it will affect individual player rankings, and strong showings from either Gordon or Arbuthnott could help give us some insight into how the team could fit together come spring.  As of right now, Lord seems ensconced at the #1 spot, but the rest of the singles spots seem pretty unsettled.  With a good run, Gordon could strengthen her case, which is already solid given her title at the Northwest Regionals a couple of weeks ago.  (And frankly, Gordon could potentially win the whole thing.  She's that good, folks.)  With a few upsets, Arbuthnott could serve notice that she's taken a big leap and is ready to play near the top of the lineup. 

Pac-12 Scouting

If you're interested in following how other Pac-12 players do, with an eye toward scouting the spring season, there are two UCLA players in the draw (4th seed Ena Shibahara and Ayan Broomfield), three Cal players (3rd seed Karla Popovic, Olivia Hauger, and Anna Bright), and one each from USC (Gabby Smith), Washington (Stacey Fung), and Colorado (freshman Linda Huang). 

If Lord were here, she'd also be a reasonably high seed, right there with Popovic and Shibahara, who, along with USC's Gabby Smith, look to be the biggest competition for Lord at the #1 spot in the conference this year.   

Singles Preview:

You can find the draw, among other information, here: http://www.itatennis.com/Events/Oracle_ITA_National_Fall_Championships.htm

Gordon is the 12th seed, suggesting that she'll be ranked in the Top 20 along with Lord when the first regular season rankings come out in January.  As a seed (albeit a lower one), she gets the benefit of two matches against unseeded players, though all of the players here are dangerous.  Up first is Duke's Kelly Chen, another highly-regarded freshman (Gordon and Chen are the 2nd- and 4th-ranked freshmen, respectively), so that's an intriguing first-round matchup.  If Gordon gets past Chen, she'll play the winner of #47 Christina Rosca (Vanderbilt) and Shiori Fukuda (Ohio State).  If she handles business there, her first seeded opponent would be UCLA's Ena Shibahara, the preseason #1 ranked player in the country (and the #4 seed here), in the Round of 16.  Gordon played Shibahara in an ITF tournament in Stockton this summer, and beat her 7-5, 6-1, so playing the preseason #1 player won't scare Gordon one bit. 

Arbuthnott dodges a seeded player in the first round, drawing #115 Chiara Lommer (Michigan), a fellow sophomore.  If she wins, she'll take on the winner of 6th seed Katarina Jokic (a Georgia freshman) and UCLA junior Ayan Broomfield, who is ranked #52 and played for Clemson last year.  Next would likely be #13 ranked Mayer Sherif Ahmed from Pepperdine, the 15th seed.  Ahmed played #3 for Pepperdine when we played them last year, when she was the first singles point on the board after crushing Taylor Davidson, 6-4, 6-1 (the scoreline isn't all that terrible, but those games went fast, as it ended even before Emma Higuchi's clinical 6-1, 6-2 win at the #6 spot). 

Round of 64 (Wednesday morning)

* Emily Arbuthnott vs. #115 Chiara Lommer (Michigan) (8:00am).  In last year's NCAA Round of 16 match, Lommer played #4.  She won the first set over our Caroline Lampl, 7-5, and was leading 3-1 in a second-set tiebreaker when Stanford clinched the match.  Oddly enough, it was Arbuthnott who clinched that match, with a three-set win at the #5 spot. 
* Michaela Gordon vs. Kelly Chen (Duke) (9:45am or so)

The second round will be Thursday morning.

Doubles Preview:

I had planned on ignoring this side of things, because no Stanford pair qualified, even for an at-large bid.  But at least one of the qualified teams bailed, because lo and behold, Arbuthnott/Gordon are entered into the doubles draw.  (It appears to be UCLA, as Jada Hart qualified as a member of two different doubles teams, but can only be entered once.  Rather than give the doubles spot to a team that otherwise was eligible for an at-large bid--i.e., one of the finalists from the regional championships--they apparently opted for the "well, who's here that can play" approach.  Heck, I'll take it.)  They're unseeded, of course, but they did well enough at the Northwest Regionals (losing a closely contested match in the semifinals to the ultimate champion) that they can make some noise and surprise some people, and that their selection won't ruffle too many feathers. 

Round of 64 (Wednesday afternoon):

* Arbuthnott/Gordon vs. #38 Daavettila/Sanford (North Carolina). Daavettila is the preseason #4 player, and Sanford is another top-ranked newcomer (the #6 freshman).

(Note: Arbuthnott/Gordon are unranked as a pair, but in the preseason rankings, Arbuthnott and Janice Shin were ranked #31 and Gordon was ranked #44 with Melissa Lord.  They played together, and played well, at Northwest Regionals, so if they keep playing well together, Lele might be inclined to keep that pair together for the spring season.) 

How to follow along:

Live scoring is supposed to be available at this link, and you should be able to see completed match results here as well on a different tab: http://www.tennisticker.de/usa/ita/sb.html?tournid=3338

If you were going to be in the Palm Desert/Indian Wells area anyway, the Stanford women's matches are at the JW Marriott in Palm Desert, not at the more famous Indian Wells Tennis Garden. 

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - oldalum - 10-31-2017

Thanks x 4!

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - BobK - 10-31-2017

Wonderful post.  Thank you

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - ColoradoTree - 11-01-2017

As always, you're very welcome.  I'm bummed Lord isn't here, but I'm really excited to see what Gordon can do against the nation's best.  (I expect a first round win from Arbuthnott, but any wins beyond that would feel like gravy, frankly.)  And given that doubles hasn't necessarily been a strength when we compete against the top teams, I'm glad that Arbuthnott/Gordon will get some extra competition together. 

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - oldalum - 11-01-2017

Arbuthnott won easily, as did her next opponent Jokic of Georgia.

Gordon is currently down 4-0 5-0 to Chen, down 3 breaks of serve. Losing no-ad points so the match is probably a little closer than it looks.

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - ColoradoTree - 11-01-2017

Arbuthnott rolled over Michigan's Lommer, 6-1, 6-2.  Not much to say about it other than Arbuthnott took care of a lower-ranked opponent with ease (albeit one who has had a good fall, winning the Midwest Regional). She moves on to face Georgia freshman Katarina Jokic, the #6 seed, who had a similarly easy result, 6-2, 6-0 over UCLA's Ayan Broomfield (who, ranked at #52, is no slouch, so Arbuthnott certainly has her hands full tomorrow). 

In her first round match, Michaela Gordon won 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 over a fellow highly-touted freshman, Duke's Kelly Chen.  Gordon struggled early, going to decision point (40-all) in her first three service games, and losing all three, causing her to fall behind 5-0 in the first set.  (If you needed evidence that no-ad scoring in college tennis has an impact, here you go.  It makes what could have been a lengthy game with several deuces into a lopsided scoreline when the tennis being played doesn't necessarily reflect that scoreline.)  It's unclear if she just took a little time to warm up, but in any event, she woke up, rattling off four straight games to get the match to 5-4 before Chen finally stopped the bleeding and held to take the first set 6-4.  There was plenty of drama in the second set as well, though not in as lopsided a fashion as the first, though the games were close in the second set as well.  Gordon got a break of serve to go up 4-2, but with the chance to win the set on her serve, up 5-3, she was broken to get the set back on serve.  But instead of folding, she broke back to take the second set 6-4 and push the match to a decider.  And that's where Gordon started to assert herself far more, holding at love to open the set, getting an easy break to go up 2-0, consolidating to go up 3-0, getting another easy break to get to 4-0, and holding to 5-0.  Chen won a deciding point on her serve to get on the board, and with another chance to serve for a set, Gordon was broken at love to make it 5-2.  But just as she did in the second set, she immediately broke back to win the match, showing an impressive ability to shake off small letdowns and take it out on her opponent.  Whether it's better conditioning or finally getting into the feel of the match, Gordon certainly separated herself in the final frame, setting aside the hiccup at the end. 

Gordon's opponent tomorrow will be Ohio State freshman Shiori Fukuda, who won a close match (6-4, 7-5) over a Top 50 player from Vanderbilt.  Interestingly, Fukuda lost to Michigan's Chiara Lommer (Arbuthnott's first round opponent) in the Midwest Regional final, for those of you that put stock in the transitive property as applied to sports. 

In doubles, Arbuthnott/Gordon will play their first round match this afternoon, nominally at 2:15pm, but they're the 5th match scheduled, so depending on how quickly the men's singles matches go, they might need to wait a bit. 

Elsewhere in the first round, there were some interesting results.  #1 seed Anna Danilina (Florida) lost in rather convincing fashion to Oklahoma State's Vladica Babic (who is the player Taylor Davidson beat at #2 singles in the NCAA team championship match two years ago).  ןɐɔ's #1 player, 3rd-seeded Karla Popovic, lost a 3-set match to another Top 20 player, Ole Miss's Adrianna Hartono.  And the preseason #4, UNC's Sara Daavettila, fell to Vanderbilt's Fernanda Contreras, who is ranked far lower, but due to her excellent fall season to this point, was seeded while Daavettila wasn't.  In other Pac-12 news, U$C's Gabby Smith lost to Michigan's Kate Fahey in a battle of Top 15 players, ןɐɔ freshman Anna Bright got crushed 6-0, 6-0 to the 11th seed from Duke, ןɐɔ's Olivia Hauger won a three-set match over an unranked Kentucky Wildcat, and Colorado freshman Linda Huang lost very quickly, 6-0, 6-1 to another Duke Blue Devil.  At the time Gordon's match finished, UCLA's Ena Shibahara (the #1 ranked player and #4 seed here) was up a set but having trouble putting away the #122-ranked player in the country in the second, and UW's Stacey Fung (ranked #18) was up 4-0 in the third set against UNC's Jessie Aney (#22), one of the more even matchups of the day, rankings-wise.

UPDATE: Fung beat Aney 6-1 in the third, an impressive showing for Washington's #1 player.  Meanwhile, Shibahara lost her second set, and it took her a third-set tiebreaker to win her match, but she moves on.

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - Lorcan - 11-01-2017

Arbuthnott and Gordon squander an 8-6 lead in the super breaker--but they are still alive! 9-9 in the super breaker against the pair from North Carolina.

UCLA's Hart and Andrews knocked off the #2 pair from Texas Tech, and await the winners.

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - oldalum - 11-01-2017

they win 11-9 and move on! Great experience for them. Now go get those Bruins.

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - ColoradoTree - 11-01-2017

Arbuthnott’s match is at 9:45am tomorrow, and Gordon’s is at 10:00am, with both taking place at Indian Wells. A neat experience for them to get to play on grounds that have played host to some of the all-time greats.

As for doubles, it’s Stanford-UCLA, back at the JW Marriot at 2:45pm, or a little later depending on how the earlier singles matches go.

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - ColoradoTree - 11-02-2017

Even after one day, this has been a nice net positive for the rankings of Arbuthnott and Gordon.  As for Arbuthnott, Lommer is #115 right now, but that'll improve on the strength of her run to the Midwest Regional title a couple of weeks ago, so beating her will help boost Arbuthnott.  And if she can can pull off the upset today over the 6th-seeded Jokic (another unranked freshman that will jump right near the top of the rankings on the strength of her fall season), she'll get an even bigger boost. 

As for Gordon, Kelly Chen (like Gordon) isn't ranked yet because she's a freshman, but guys, she's good.  I think she'll be Top 50, at least, when the first regular season rankings come out in January, so that ranking will in turn help Gordon's.  And Gordon's opponent today may be another unranked freshman, but she beat a Top 50 player yesterday, so she'll be ranked in due course. 

The real rankings gold would come from upsetting #1 Ena Shibahara in the Round of 16, if both Gordon and Shibahara can get there.  If Arbuthnott manages to win today, she could get the #13 player in the next round (R16), the #17 player the round after that (QF), and the #11 player the round after that.  It would be a highly improbable run, but if Arbuthnott played herself into the final, she'd likely be Top 10 in January herself.  And it could be even tougher, as the (1) and (3) seeds were upset in the first round, opening things up a bit on that half of the draw.  Gordon has had no such luck, as with a win today, she'd likely get #1 Shibahara (the 4 seed), then the #2 player (the 8 seed) in the quarterfinals, and then the #3 player (the 2 seed) in the semifinals.  Ouch. 

This tournament can have wide variances between a player's rank and seed, as it's the first tournament where the early results (i.e., limited data) are used, averaging the ranking with a player's Universal Tennis Rating (something that's supposed to be objective and results-based), so a great start to the fall can make the #15 player the top seed, as it did here, and a ho-hum fall can push a player's seed way down.  In case you find this interesting, here's the seed list, with the player's rank in parentheses:

1. Anna Danilina, Florida (#15)
2. Ashley Lahey, Pepperdine (#3)
3. Karla Popovic, Cal (#5)
4. Ena Shibahara, UCLA (#1)
5. Alle Sanford, UNC (#6 freshman)
6. Katarina Jokic, UGA (unranked freshman)
7. Sinead Lohan, Miami (#8)
8. Gabriela Talaba, Texas Tech (#2)
9. Estela Perez-Somarriba, Miami (#11)
10. Anastasia Rychagova, Kansas (#35)
11. Samantha Harris, Duke (#54)
12. Michaela Gordon, Stanford (#2 freshman)
13. Fernanda Contreras, Vanderbilt (#63)
14. Kate Fahey, Michigan (#6)
15. Mayer Sherif Ahmed, Pepperdine (#13)
16. Leolia Jeanjean, Arkansas (#62)

Of that group, only two seeds lost in the first round, (1) Danilina and (3) Popovic.  But the coolest thing is that it shows that Gordon is already seen as a Top 20 player, and a good run here will only push her January initial ranking higher. 

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - ColoradoTree - 11-02-2017

A nice start for Arbuthnott, up a double break over Jokic in the first set, 4-1.  Let's hope Arbuthnott can at least close out this set, because even if Jokic forces a third, one of Arbuthnott's real strengths last year was finishing her matches strong.  Of 6 three-set matches last year, she won all 6.  (Interestingly, 5 of the 6 involved her losing the first set.  Her conditioning and mental toughness was such that she just kept getting stronger as those matches wore on, and she had more in the tank at the end than her opponents did.  The 6th was her first 3-setter of the year, and the most dramatic, when she won a 3rd set tiebreaker to clinch an early-season win against Vanderbilt.)

UPDATE: Emily!  She held to 5-1 and then broke on deciding point to take the first set 6-1.  She seems determined to demonstrate that she has made a big leap coming into this season, and I am here for it. 

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - oldalum - 11-02-2017

Arbuthnott is down a break early in the second set.
Gordon was up 2 breaks in the first set but just lost one back.

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - ColoradoTree - 11-02-2017

And Arbuthnott loses the second set 6-2.  Come on, Emily!

A little more background on her opponent, and why I was worred about three sets even when Arbuthnott was cruising in the first set.  Jokic is a freshman, but she has been lights out this fall.  In her run to the Southeast Regional title, she beat 3 Top 25 players, including #11 Estela Perez-Somarriba (Miami), #15 Anna Danilina of Florida (the top seed in this tournament), and #23 Johnisse Renaud (Georgia Tech), in addition to the #8 freshman, Ida Jarlskog of Georgia Tech.  In an earlier tournament this fall, she beat Vanderbilt's Fernanda Contreras (who won the ITA All-Americans this fall and seems massively underranked at #63).  So, yeah, lights out.   

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - ColoradoTree - 11-02-2017

Arbuthnott isn't going down without a fight.  After being broken in the opening game of the third set, she broke Jokic right back, then held, and broke again for a 3-1 lead!

Gordon brushed off that break of her serve to take the first set 6-2, though she just had her serve broken to go down 1-2 in the second set. 

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - ColoradoTree - 11-02-2017

And Arbuthnott prevails, 6-1, 2-6, 6-1!  An odd scoreline, but a really impressive win over a player who has beaten some very strong opponents this fall, and who could well be ranked in the Top 30 or so when the January rankings come out. 

As for Gordon, she was broken again to go down 4-1 in her second set, but rattled off 4 straight games of her own, and is now up 5-4 with Fukuda to serve to stay in the match. 

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - BobK - 11-02-2017

Gordon won the first set 6-2 tied at 4-4 set 2

Colorado Tree has given Me Tennis fever 😀

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - Lorcan - 11-02-2017

brobdingnagian win for Arbuthnott this morning, the 15 seed from Pepperdine won the first and seems on course to play in the next round.

Gordon just two points away.

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - ColoradoTree - 11-02-2017

Gordon closes the door, 6-2, 6-4.  To go from 4-1 down in the second to rattling off five straight games to make the scoreline look routine?  She has an extra gear. 

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - oldalum - 11-02-2017

Way to go, both of 'em!

Now for some doubles excellence! Keep cutting down those giants!

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. IV: ITA Fall National Championship - ColoradoTree - 11-02-2017

(11-02-2017, 11:55 AM)BobK link Wrote:Gordon won the first set 6-2 tied at 4-4 set 2

Colorado Tree had give. Me Tennis fever 😀

Ha!  Happy to spread it, that's for sure.  Like I've said before, this team is a ton of fun to follow because (1) they're super good, (2) they win a lot, (3) they play with a ton of heart and passion, and (4) they are a lock to provide excellent drama in several key matches each year.  The fact that Arbuthnott is having this kind of performance is great news for the team's prospects in the spring.  And having a freshman like Gordon who has the talent to beat anyone in the country is a luxury we haven't seen in a while since Nicole Gibbs, even with our recruiting humming along in "reload, not rebuild" status for the last several years. 

Following the team from year to year, you can see who made the proverbial leap and who is developing faster than others.  Lord played #6 her freshman year but settled in at #2 last year.  It sure looks like Arbuthnott has made a similar jump this year.Â