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Women's Tennis: 1 blue chip on Fall Signing Day - Printable Version

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Women's Tennis: 1 blue chip on Fall Signing Day - ColoradoTree - 11-09-2017

Given the current roster math (3 scholarship juniors, 2 sophomores, and 2 freshmen), there is just one scholarship available for next year's team.  And yesterday, blue chip and current #8 overall recruit Sara Choy grabbed it.  She's local, and not just because she attends Sacred Heart Prep in Atherton.  She was born here, at Stanford Hospital a few months before Lele became head coach.  Here's the article about her commitment: https://www.tennisrecruiting.net/article.asp?id=247143208

She's small (4'11.5" as she says), which leads her to be something of a counterpuncher, using tactics when she can't overwhelm with raw power.  Without having the benefit of having seen her play, that sounds something like our own Emma Higuchi, and I will take more like her any chance I can get. 

Barring an early departure (a dominant season at #1 could convince Melissa Lord she's ready to take the next step, and I've already resigned myself to the fact that we probably won't get four years from Michaela Gordon), this should be the end of recruiting this cycle, as we now have 8 scholarships committed for next year. 

Welcome, Sara! 

Re: Women's Tennis: 1 blue chip on Fall Signing Day - ColoradoTree - 11-09-2017

It's a bit of a bummer that there are no spots left, since consensus #1 recruit (and the #1 junior in the world) Claire Liu has been debating between Stanford, UCLA, and going pro.  I'd dearly love to have both her and Choy, but leaving those pesky NCAA scholarship limitations aside, it sure seems like Liu is going to follow the path of Cici Bellis (another former #1 junior) and go pro immediately.  And really, it would probably be the right call.  Liu won the Wimbledon junior tournament, won the Easter Bowl (a top junior tournament), and made it to the finals of the French Open junior tournament.  The only reason she's not currently the #1 junior in the world is because she stopped playing junior tournaments after winning Wimbledon and instead has been trying her hand at WTA and ITF events.  She qualified for the US Open main draw, and thrashed another top junior who decided to go pro, Caroline Dolehide (who would have been a freshman at UCLA this year), in the process.  She was given a wild card into the Bank of the West Classic at Stanford, and Nicole Gibbs needed a third-set tiebreaker to get past her.  She won two $25K ITF tournaments this summer, and beat our own Carol Zhao in another before falling to Top 100 player Madison Brengle.  Long story short (too late), her trajectory is such that going pro right now is probably the right call for her.  (A brief aside: Liu and Emma Higuchi had some nice battles in juniors through 2016.  Liu took the first two matches in 2014 relatively easily, but the last three have been tough three-setters, with Higuchi taking two of the last three, the most recent being Higuchi's win in the 2016 Easter Bowl. Lesson: Emma Higuchi is one tough out.)  She had rough outings in her last two tournaments, however, so here's hoping that doesn't dissuade her from the pro path and decide to go to UCLA instead!

Now, our recruiting has been outstanding the last several years--the #4 class last year, the #2 class in 2016, the #1 class in 2015, and the #1 class in 2013 (we didn't take anyone in 2014, hence skipping the year), just to go back the last four classes we've taken.  But there isn't a #1 ranked junior anywhere in there.  Even looking at the top recruits that ended up leaving early, Nicole Gibbs peaked at #41 and Carol Zhao peaked at #9.  (Michaela Gordon, for the record, got as high as #21.)  Bottom line: when you're tearing up the junior ranks like Liu is, you tend to go pro right away.  And fyi, with just one player in the class, our recruiting ranking won't be terribly high this year.  But that's kinda meaningless, since we filled the only spot we had with a blue chip. 

As a side note, recruiting rankings aren't always determinative.  I'm reminded that Kimberly Yee was, for a time, the #1 overall recruit in the Class of 2015, and she's had a hard time staying in the lineup, as her developmental arc hasn't followed the same path as her classmates.  (Her lofty recruiting ranking was one reason I was surprised when Arbuthnott and Higuchi both leapfrogged her in the singles lineup last year, and with Gordon laying claim to one of the two open singles spots and Janice Shin being seeded ahead of Yee at the Northwest Regionals, it seems as if she might get leapfrogged again this year.)

Re: Women's Tennis: 1 blue chip on Fall Signing Day - ColoradoTree - 11-13-2017

Another blue chip has reportedly committed to Stanford, according to tennisrecruiting.net, and it's not Claire Liu, but instead Sunnyvale's Niluka Madurawe, who decommitted from Dartmouth earlier this year. 

This is curious, mainly because there is only one scholarship available, and Sara Choy seemed to take it last week, as the article regarding her announcement said she'd be sending in her signed NLI last week.  So, either (1) Tennis Recruiting logged Madurawe's commitment incorrectly, (2) Choy had an eleventh hour change of heart (which seems highly unlikely), (3) Madurawe is going to be the highest-ranked walk-on in history, or (4) this is an early indicator that one of our current scholarship athletes will be leaving early. 

Re: Women's Tennis: 1 blue chip on Fall Signing Day - BostonCard - 11-13-2017

(11-13-2017, 11:55 AM)ColoradoTree link Wrote:Another blue chip has reportedly committed to Stanford, according to tennisrecruiting.net, and it's not Claire Liu, but instead Sunnyvale's Niluka Madurawe, who decommitted from Dartmouth earlier this year. 

This is curious, mainly because there is only one scholarship available, and Sara Choy seemed to take it last week, as the article regarding her announcement said she'd be sending in her signed NLI last week.  So, either (1) Tennis Recruiting logged Madurawe's commitment incorrectly, (2) Choy had an eleventh hour change of heart (which seems highly unlikely), (3) Madurawe is going to be the highest-ranked walk-on in history, or (4) this is an early indicator that one of our current scholarship athletes will be leaving early.

If she had committed to Dartmouth, then she presumably was willing to go to a school without a scholarship per se, so maybe #3 is right.

BC

Re: Women's Tennis: 1 blue chip on Fall Signing Day - ColoradoTree - 11-13-2017

I mean, heck, I'd sure take that, BC.  If we could, at some point, boast of having nine blue chips on the roster in an eight-scholarship sport?  Quite literally unprecedented depth. 

(For the record, Madurawe was also apparently considering Columbia, Michigan, Northwestern, and Texas Tech, in addition to Dartmouth.  The Texas Tech interest notwithstanding, an academic focus rather than a purely tennis focus seems like a good bet.)

I'm pretty confident she'd have an equal shot at playing time, too.  Lele is going to put who she thinks are the best six players out there, in the order she thinks they deserve. 

Re: Women's Tennis: 1 blue chip on Fall Signing Day - BostonCard - 11-13-2017

Maybe she was told that she could earn a scholarship after the first year (or earlier, if we have someone go pro after this year).

BC

Re: Women's Tennis: 1 blue chip on Fall Signing Day - ColoradoTree - 11-13-2017

Entirely possible, and it would have the added bonus of re-balancing our seniority at two scholarships per class, so that makes a lot of sense. 

Here's the current seniority situation:

Seniors: None
Juniors (3): Melissa Lord, Caroline Lampl, Kimberly Yee
Sophomores (2): Emily Arbuthnott, Emma Higuchi
Freshmen (2): Michaela Gordon, Janice Shin

Next year:

Seniors (3): Lord, Lampl, Yee
Juniors (2): Arbuthnott, Higuchi
Sophomores (2): Gordon, Shin
Freshmen (2*): Choy, Madurawe

Thus, if we can get Madurawe to defer a scholarship for a year, that would mean we could take two players in next year's class and be back to 2 players/class again for the 2019-2020 season, assuming Gordon stays through her junior year.  And if it's actually something like Lord intending to go pro after this year, or Yee intending on transferring after the season for a fresh start, that scholarship can start right away.  (I'd be surprised if Lord were thinking at this point of going pro after this year.  Gibbs was the NCAA singles champion and top-ranked player her sophomore year, and Zhao was the runner-up and #2 player after her sophomore year.  Lord certainly took a big step from her freshman year to last year, but not "planning on leaving early" big, IMHO.)

Re: Women's Tennis: 1 blue chip on Fall Signing Day - cardfan77 - 11-14-2017

Maybe Yee will transfer to get some playing time.

Re: Women's Tennis: 1 blue chip on Fall Signing Day - ColoradoTree - 11-14-2017

FYI, Claire Liu is definitely going pro, according to this article: http://www.vcstar.com/story/sports/2017/10/19/new-outlook-has-claire-liu-road-tennis-stardom/780649001/.  Not sure why tennisrecruiting.net hasn't updated her profile, but there you have it.  At least we won't have to play against her!

As for Yee, the fact that she has barely cracked the lineup in two years here means she's probably come to terms that college tennis is the end of the line for her.  And if she's accepted that, then the decision point is whether she wants to spend one year someplace else, or whether she wants to stay as a part of this team and have as good a chance as anyone to win a national title.  But transfers, either outgoing or incoming, are extremely rare for this team.  And there's the ol' 40-year decision, of course.

Part of the roster confusion is that Stanford generally doesn't announce its incoming class in women's tennis, unlike most other schools (and other sports at Stanford).  I mean, this is how Stanford announced Michaela Gordon, who was the #1 recruit for much of her senior year, was coming to school--an oblique reference to her status as part of a preview of the Bank of the West Classic, where Nicole Gibbs, Kristie Ahn, and Emma Higuchi were all competing: http://www.gostanford.com/news/2017/7/29/womens-tennis-bank-of-the-west-classic.aspx?path=wten.  No fanfare.  No "Welcome to Stanford" Twitter post.  Had Stanford said "welcome to Sara and Niluka," we'd know they both signed NLIs and were both going to be on scholarship, meaning someone is leaving early.  But since the school doesn't announce commitments who have signed letters of intent, we're reliant on what recruiting websites say.  Usually it all lines up, but sometimes--like this time--it doesn't. 

Re: Women's Tennis: 1 blue chip on Fall Signing Day - BobK - 11-14-2017

There are actually several sports that don't announce
Baseball because Mark wouldn't
WVB because John wanted to include walk ons and he couldn't until May 1. 

Maybe tennis is thinking we don't want to exclude walk ons. 

I have T&F going on the other board.  They are being announced on twitter and istragram as letters are received

Re: Women's Tennis: 1 blue chip on Fall Signing Day - ColoradoTree - 11-14-2017

Interesting, Bob.  I hadn't thought about that, but it could definitely factor into Lele's thinking. 

Another thought on Madurawe.  While most of our recruits have been on our radar for years with top rankings as 14, 15, and 16 year-olds, Madurawe is something of a late bloomer.  She's been ranked as high as the #12 recruit recently, but last year, she peaked at #47, and the year before, she peaked at #39, so she's really elevated her play in the last year or so.  Because of that relatively recent uptick in play, starting as a walk-on with the promise of a scholarship in a year makes some sense.  But it can't be overstated that getting a blue chip to walk on instead of taking a scholarship to a place like Michigan is insane.  If this is what ends up happening, it's roster management of the highest order. 

Re: Women's Tennis: 1 blue chip on Fall Signing Day - BobK - 11-14-2017

It happened in another sport several years ago.  Come as a walk on scholie after frosh year.
I thought wow that's awesome of her parents.  Several years later I learned both are lawyers.  So who knows what lurks.  :)

Re: Women's Tennis: 1 blue chip on Fall Signing Day - ColoradoTree - 11-15-2017

One team to watch in terms of recruiting this year is Florida.  They graduated three seniors last year, and had another player leave early to turn pro (last year's #3 singles player, then-freshman Ingrid Neel).  But they signed just two players to replace them, leaving them with just six scholarship athletes.  (They had three signed, but one player opted to turn pro before enrolling.)  No walk-ons, either, so any injury looms very large for them this season. 

And they're unbalanced, to boot--four seniors and those two freshmen.  While Florida did a reasonably good job in the early signing period, signing two blue chips, that only brings them up to four players for next year's roster.  Their best bet would be to attract some upperclass transfers to restore a little balance, but if not, they'll need two more freshman signees this spring just to allow them to field a full team next year, which would create further imbalance down the line. 

We had a similar situation in the 2014-15 season where we had just 6 scholarship athletes, but fleshed it out with walk-ons.  Not what you're looking for, but sometimes unavoidable in a sport where you might only take one or two players each year--that could have just been a down year in terms of the academically qualified pool.  You can manage around it, as Lele has shown, but it's certainly not ideal. 

Re: Women's Tennis: 1 blue chip on Fall Signing Day - qwerty49 - 11-15-2017

My memory fails me but I seem to remember Florida picked off one of our top recruits a decade or so ago, and she played #1 for them for a couple years before going pro.