The CardBoard
Women's Tennis Preview Vol. VI: Spring Schedule - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. VI: Spring Schedule (/thread-15258.html)


Women's Tennis Preview Vol. VI: Spring Schedule - ColoradoTree - 12-18-2017

Note: this is the sixth in a series of posts previewing the women's tennis season.  The previous posts deal with roster turnover, previews and recaps of the now-completed fall season, and preseason individual rankings.  After this, the next post will be looking at each Pac-12 roster and predicting the Pac-12 season.

The full spring schedule has just been announced, so here it is (http://www.gostanford.com/schedule.aspx?path=wten), with an annotated version below, followed by some analysis on the relative strength of schedule and which dates to circle as benchmarks for how good our team is this year.  (NOTE: updated to include 1/3/2018 initial team rankings.)

Schedule:

January Tournaments:

* Jan. 12-14: Freeman Memorial Championships, Las Vegas, NV
* Jan. 12-14: NCTC Classic, Indian Wells, CA

Start of dual season:

* Jan. 27: @ San Jose State. 
* Feb. 3: @ #2 Vanderbilt.  Circle this one--the first of three non-conference Top 10 matches, and our toughest road match of the year.  While I would have liked to see Stanford with more than just one match prior to this one, and I would've liked to see Stanford schedule another Top 25 team from the Southeast on this road trip, there is nothing disappointing about playing Vanderbilt--a Final Four team last year and the 2015 national champions. Stanford will have played just one match by this point, while Vanderbilt will have played three (including one the day before vs. Baylor).  I think Vanderbilt will be very tough in the top 2 spots, but more vulnerable at the back end, which plays to our strengths. 
* Feb. 9: vs. St. Mary's.   
* Feb. 16: @ #25 TCU (in Austin); Feb. 17: @ #12 Texas.  I'm excited for this weekend.  Stanford should win both, but these are both really good teams and it's on the road.  Good early data points.  I like our chances to win both, however. 
* Feb. 23: vs. UNLV; Feb. 24: vs. #3 Florida.  Florida, as ever, is the benchmark.  If we win the rematch of last year's NCAA final, then dreaming of another NCAA title isn't unreasonable.  Heck, with this team, that's true even with a loss.  Though I would predict a narrow win, as Florida is a bit thin (just 6 scholarship players, losing a couple major contributors to graduation and one freshman, Ingrid Neel, to the pro tour), and while Florida has its usual complement of top players (three in the Top 40), they're inexperienced after that and could thus be more vulnerable at the back courts than in past years.
* Mar. 2: vs. #6 Pepperdine.  Another good early test. The Waves have four highly-ranked players at the moment, and that doesn't even include USC transfer Jessica Failla, who was Top 20 in the preseason rankings but didn't play in the fall.  I'm not sure anyone in the country is better than Pepperdine.  Hopefully we're as good, but I don't think anyone is better.  Thank heavens we play them at our place!

Conference season starts (with a couple non-conference matchups in there for good measure):

* Mar. 9: vs. #17 UCLA; Mar. 10: vs. #30 USC.  I'm glad to get these two at home.  I expect UCLA to be our biggest conference threat this year. 
* Mar. 16: vs. Utah; Mar. 17: vs. Colorado. 
* Mar. 25 vs. Hawaii
* Mar. 28 (Wednesday): vs. UCSB
* Mar. 30: at #24 Arizona State; Apr. 1: at Arizona
* Apr. 8: vs. Oregon
* Apr. 13: at Washington State; April 15: at Washington
* Apr. 21: vs. #11 Cal. As with USC and UCLA, the benefit to getting Cal at home is difficult to overstate. 

Postseason:

* Apr. 25-30: Pac-12 Championships, Ojai, CA
* May 11-13: NCAA First/Second Round (campus sites)
* May 17-28: NCAA Team/Individual Championships, Wake Forest, NC

That's 20 regular season matches scheduled, which is normal for Stanford (same as last year) and quite low for other top teams. 

Analysis:

January tournaments

The two January tournaments are a bit of a holdover from the fall season, and will see split-squad contingents at each.  Last year, Melissa Lord won the Freeman Memorial Championships, beating two Top 10 players (and another ranked player) on the way.  Meanwhile, Caroline Lampl had a nice run at the NCTC, making the semifinals before losing to USC's Gabby Smith.  Last year, the squads weren't evenly split, as Davidson, Doyle, Lord, and Arbuthnott went to the Freeman (so, the 1, 2, 3, and 5 singles players), while Lampl, Higuchi, and Yee went to the NCTC.  Expect the same this year, with likely doubles partners going to the same tournaments as well.  I'll predict Lord, Gordon, Arbuthnott, and Lampl to Las Vegas and Higuchi, Shin, and Yee to Indian Wells. 

Regular season schedule

Using this year's initial team rankings, we play three ranked teams in conference and five out of conference:

Non-conference: @ #2 Vanderbilt; vs. #3 Florida; vs. #6 Pepperdine, @ #12 Texas, @ #25 TCU

Conference: vs. #11 Cal, vs. #17 UCLA, @ #24 Arizona State

(By using last year's final rankings, which include 50 teams, instead of the 25 included in the first several rankings of the year, that adds another non-conference team (#46 UCSB) and three more conference teams (#27 USC, #36 UW, and #38 Oregon), for a total of 12.

So, that's 12 ranked teams overall (compared to 9 last year) but just 3 Top 10 teams (5 last year), and a relatively even home-away split in the ranked non-conference matches and a favorable schedule with the ranked conference matches. By and large, this is a more balanced schedule than last year, when 6 of 9 matches against ranked opponents (and 4 of 5 Top 10 preseason opponents) were on the road.  Now, 7 of 12 ranked matches are at home, including all three of the toughest Pac-12 matches.  And 2 of 3 Top 10 (for now) matchups are at home.  Of course, Cal, UT, and UCLA could all be Top 10 by the time we play them.) 

In terms of the quality of our non-conference schedule (which will matter for the rankings), we play several of the same opponents: Florida, Vanderbilt, Texas, Pepperdine, Hawaii, St. Mary's, and San Jose State.  Gone is #16 Oklahoma State (which is unfortunate), as well as some middling California programs (Fresno State, and Sacramento State).  In their place, we add #25 TCU (and on the road, no less), UC Santa Barbara (which finished last season ranked in the Top 50), and UNLV.  We certainly lifted the floor, but the ceiling is a bit lower, too.  On balance, I think it's a bit better.

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. VI: Spring Schedule - BobK - 12-18-2017

You are a treasure Colorado tree.  Great read thanks much

Re: Women's Tennis Preview Vol. VI: Spring Schedule - ColoradoTree - 01-03-2018

I updated the schedule preview to reflect the newly-released inaugural team rankings of the year (in which we are #1).  Sure, maybe Stanford doesn't play as many matches as other top teams, but we play #2 on the road, the #3 defending national champs at home, an absolutely stacked #6 Pepperdine team, and dangerous Texas, Cal, and UCLA teams that could absolutely be Top 10 by the end of the season. 

Getting the #1 ranking is the easy part.  Now we have to go keep it.Â