WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - Printable Version

WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - Printable Version

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WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - M T - 01-29-2018

I don't mean to skip over OSU as they are a real challenge, but I was looking at Stanford vs Oregon.Â I hope one of us will dig into OSU as well.

Oregon may be better suited, or even experimented, with the fast-paced game.
They have games this year with scores
Â 110 - 77 (p.s.Â Drake)
Â 114 - 87 (Weber State)
Â 94 - 83 (UW)

Conference play isn't as gaudy, but they averageÂ 77.1, 47.4 FG%, 37.3 3PT%
Stanford:Â 68.1, 44.2 FG%, 31.6 3PT%.
It is a lot closer if the top scorer from each team were neutralized:Â 55.7 - 53.1

A small part of their advantage in scoring is due to more possessions per game.
Oregon(conf):Â 201/377 2FG,Â 82/220 3FG, 105 OR, 223 opponent DR.
Â About 492 possessions, at 1.55 pts/possession.Â
Â Score vs opponent:Â +12.6/game
Stanford:Â 194/378 2FG, 68/215 3FG,Â 130 OR, 216 opponent DR.
Â About 463 possessions, at 1.47 pts/possession.Â
Â Score vs opponent:Â +11.9/game
(I'm usingÂ Â possessions = 2FG misses + 3FG misses - OR,
ignoring the effect of fouls & FTs, and multiple ORs per possession.Â Note that FG misses < OR + opponent DR due to FT misses on last FTA)
Head to head, two teams will have the same number of possessions (+/- 1).Â
Â At 47.75 possessions, the teams would score 74 - 70.2
It is interesting to note that Oregon has 25 more FG (66 more FG points) but Stanford has 25 more OR

[I should note that had this comparison been done after 9 conference games rather than 10, the differences would have been more.]

Unfortunately, the game is at Oregon, so they get an advantage from that.

Oregon's loss was at OSU.Â Oregon has played 2xOSU, UCLA, ASU.Â Games remaining include Cal, Stanford, UCLA, ASU.
Stanford's losses were at UCLA & ASU.Â Stanford has playedÂ 2xASU, 2xUCLA.Â Games remaining include OSU, Oregon, 2xCal.

Obviously, Stanford wants to, and can, win both games this weekend.Â For getting a decent seed in the NCAA tourney, a win at OSU is very important, so Stanford has to prepare for that game first.Â Even if we lose to Oregon, we may well get a second shot at them in the PAC-12 tournament.

(Anyone know how the PAC-12 does tiebreakers for conference seeding?Â If UCLA & Stanford wind up with the same record as #2, how is seed #2 chosen?Â One future is that both UCLA & Stanford win out, except losing vs Oregon (1. Ore; 2. Stan & UCLA).Â Another possibility is that UCLA wins out while Stanford loses at Oregon (1. Ore & UCLA. 3. Stan.).Â Another is that both Stanford & UCLA win out (1. Stanford & UCLA.Â 3. Oregon)Â ASU & Cal & OSU can be players or spoilers as well, so there are lots of possibilities.)

Re: WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - crackpot - 01-29-2018

(01-29-2018, 11:30 AM)MT link Wrote:(Anyone know how the PAC-12 does tiebreakers for conference seeding?Â If UCLA & Stanford wind up with the same record as #2, how is seed #2 chosen?Â One future is that both UCLA & Stanford win out, except losing vs Oregon (1. Ore; 2. Stan & UCLA).Â Another possibility is that UCLA wins out while Stanford loses at Oregon (1. Ore & UCLA. 3. Stan.).Â Another is that both Stanford & UCLA win out (1. Stanford & UCLA.Â 3. Oregon)Â ASU & ×ÉÉ & OSU can be players or spoilers as well, so there are lots of possibilities.)

IIRC, it's 1) head-to-head; and if still tied, 2) record against next team down (and so on); final tiebreaker is RPI.

Re: WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - mbdude - 01-30-2018

Oregon starters last few games:
CazorlaÂ 5'10
Ionescue 5'11
Sabally 6'4Â (just named FOW,Â for 4th time)
Hebard 6'4
McGwire 6'5

The above played the majority of minutes past weekend. Gildon (6'1) came off bench to play 27 minutes. No Bando last weekend again (recovering from stress fracture in leg)

Big team - will be interesting to see matchups; who guards Ionescu, Sabally. Dijonai should see lots of playing time

Re: WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - M T - 01-30-2018

(01-29-2018, 12:51 PM)crackpot link Wrote:[quote author=MT link=topic=18643.msg222626#msg222626 date=1517250621]
(Anyone know how the PAC-12 does tiebreakers for conference seeding?Â )

IIRC, it's 1) head-to-head; and if still tied, 2) record against next team down (and so on); final tiebreaker is RPI.
[/quote]

Thanks.

"Next team down"?Â It would seem reasonable to compare against the other teamsÂ by W-L position top to bottom, which would translate to "next team down" for first place, but not for a tie for 2nd.Â So, a tie for 3rd would compare against the team(s) who placed first, then second (if any), then fifth, etc.Â If two or more teams tied for a position, then the test would be the record against the set of such teams (and not against the results of the tie-breakers, lest you get into a circular dependency).

Re: WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - FarmDad.01 - 01-30-2018

As an (old) Wolverine, I remember when UM's big and brawny '64-'65 Big 10 champs (Cazzie, Bill Bunton, Ollie Darden) decisively lost the NCAA final to a pre-Alcindor, undersized UCLA (Gail Goodrich, 42 pts; Kenny Washington, Edgar Lacey).

Looking at the Ducks' very tall front line, perhaps now as then -- speed kills? Run & gun, willing to either die or live by the trey? Even off a fast break, a la Westhead's LMU scoring machine?

Re: WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - unclechuck - 01-31-2018

For Ducks, when Bando was playing, Sabally had taken a lot of McGuire's playing time. With Bando out, McGuire has seen a lot more playing time and her quality of play has improved back to the level of their run through the NCAA tourney last year. Gildon and Hall have seen more minutes as well as they switch betweenÂ 3F/2G and 2F/3G line ups. Matchups will be fluid and doubtlessly interesting.

The Beavs lost most their starters from last year and struggled early with harmonizing roles. Those who saw the first UO/OSU game saw they have made great progress. They have two legit bigs in 6'8" Grymek, and 6'5" Gulich who is more nimble and has a more refined game. They can also run with 6'2 Katie McWilliams and 6'0" Kat Tudor at guard while rotating in a couple of smaller, quicker guards and a couple other serviceable (6'2-3") forwards.

In the second UO/OSU game the Ducks were very aggressive with doubling down on Gulich so that she was reduced to kicking the ball back out and rebounding. Sabally's length on defense and 3 point range were difference makers in the Ducks 10 point win. OSU did not shoot outside nearly as well as in their home win. We will need to be very active on defense: quickly doubling on Gulich, and rotating to cover open looks when she kicks out.

The Beavs ran some high/low post with Gulich & Grymek in game one that was devastating to UO, even with their front line. In game 2 the Ducks had better outside ball movement and were sinking their 3s early, so the hi/lo was not as visible, or effective.

Should be a couple of high quality, high intensity games.

Re: WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - BobK - 02-01-2018

Tudor is one of the best HS three shooters I have ever seen

Pivec of course accepted by Stanford but declined and flourishing as their Point averaging 5 assists and a 2:1 ratio

We danced with McWilliams

Re: WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - unclechuck - 02-01-2018

(02-01-2018, 09:33 AM)BobK link Wrote:Tudor is one of the best HS three shooters I have ever seen

Pivec of course accepted by Stanford but declined and flourishing as their Point averaging 5 assists and a 2:1 ratio

We danced with McWilliams

Thanks for recruiting backstory; was not aware of it. In OSU's win Tudor went 7-10 on 3s and 34 pts. Pivec also got 12 boards in the two games!

Grymek did not play in 2nd game, so don't know Re injury status or coaching decision. She had 5 boards in 6 minutes of game 1 action as Ducks focused on Gulich. Not very mobile, but 6'8" and not a twig.

Re: WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - unclechuck - 02-01-2018

(02-01-2018, 09:33 AM)BobK link Wrote:Tudor is one of the best HS three shooters I have ever seen

Pivec of course accepted by Stanford but declined and flourishing as their Point averaging 5 assists and a 2:1 ratio

We danced with McWilliams

Re: WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - 81alum - 02-01-2018

Thank you MT, unclechuck, Farmdad, and Bob for getting some insight into our upcoming games.Â I have no idea what to expect, really, since so much of this hinges on the self confidence of a few 18 and 19 year olds.Â The opposing lineups certainly look imposing.Â I'm a natural pessimist since this seems to protect me psychologically, but Tara often surprises me.Â Oregon State has looked vulnerable at times, and as it is the first game of the set I think we have a chance.Â On the road especially, the first few minutes of the game--which sometime hinge on luck--often sets the tone and predicts the outcome.Â If we play clean basketball and hit a couple of treys during the first five minutes of any game, I feel like we have an excellent chance the rest of the way.Â But we seldom start that way.

I'd feel a lot more confident if we had them at home.Â

Re: WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - TheFarm07 - 02-01-2018

I hope that we can build upon last weekend's solid weekend when we cut down on turnovers and posted the dominating wins we should have. Especially against Arizona, who we overmatch, we could have cruised through that game as we looked forward to the Oregon schools and lapsed into bad habits. I didn't get a chance to see the game, but judging from the box score and the commentary here, we played a relatively clean game.

We need to be the team that took Ohio State to overtime and battled Tennessee at the end rather than the game that let Western Illinois beat us at Maples.

This is a good test case on whether Tara can work her magic and the team can improve. It's our first games in February and the team has historically been better in February and March than November and December. It's crunch time as we head into the final 8 conference games.

This weekend will not only demonstrate whether we can win the conference title, but how far we can go in the postseason. Playing two quality teams, including a team that's currently slated for a high seed, is a great test on where we are.

We have seen some hopeful signs, including Marta's willingness to create offense on her own, including taking jump shots, but we still need to land more FT opportunities put together some more consistent scoring, especially from players other than Brit. If Alanna can stay out of foul trouble and show a little more of that level she had against Ohio State, that could go on a long way. She doesn't have to score 33 points every game, but if she can make opposing teams focus more on her, she can relieve some of the pressure off of McPhee.

Re: WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - BosCard - 02-02-2018

Question for BobK:Â Have you seen 2019 recruit Hannah Jump play?Â You mentioned above about Kat Tudor's three point shooting in high school.Â Was wondering how Jump compares?Â I have read reports about Jump as a great shooter and her high school 3-pt stats seem very comparable to Tudor's.

Re: WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - BobK - 02-02-2018

Just a bit and she was maybe a frosh, I don't recall much.Â Â I'll be at the State, hope Pinewood is there.Â Being as good as Tudor or a Samuelson would be very high praise.Â

Re: WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - BosCard - 02-02-2018

Here are Tudor's 3-point shooting stats for her sophomore and junior year of high school:

Soph - Made 88/245 (36%)
Junior - Made 105/230 (46%)

And here is Jump (understanding that she is still in the middle of her Junior year hence the lower number of attempts):

Soph - Made 100/225 (44%)
Junior - Made 66/159 (42%)

I am seeing 2 players that shoot a LOT of three's and hit a very high percentage of them.

Re: WBB: Scouting Oregon schools - BobK - 02-02-2018

I saw Tudor a number of times in Travel ball.Â Much higher level of completion usually.Â Incredible shooter.Â Hopefully an off night tonight