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WBB: C.al 78 Stanford 66 - Printable Version

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WBB: C.al 78 Stanford 66 - 81alum - 02-17-2018

Preview:
The preview from Thursday still applies, but now we need to think about the adjustments each coach will make.  Stanford took away Anigwe but this allowed Asha Thomas and Mikayla Cowling to have good games.  Do we change how we defend?  McPhee had a sub-par game and Smith took herself out of the game with fouls in the first half.  Will we scheme to get them more involved?  Kiana torched C.al.  Will C.al switch up defenders on her to limit her freedom of movement and shooting?  We have quite a history of the 1st and 2nd games in our C.al series playing out in very different ways.  Let's hope the one similarity is that we win.

Overview:
So much was on the line and C.al simply had more energy and focus than we did.  C.al had a large rebounding advantage and a significant shooting percentage advantage.  Their defense was solid, holding us to a measly 7 assists.  Ours wasn't.  Marta and Kiana were no match for Asha Thomas, and while we kept Anigwe to 11 points, C.al got balanced scoring contributions from less heralded players that defeated the scouting report strategy.  And so we lost, despite good games by McPhee, Smith, and Williams.  Oregon was cheering.

Flow of the game:
C.al came out with emotion, and outrebounded us 11-4 in the first quarter, also plucking the ball out of a stationary Britt's hands, while she was standing and talking to Tara, for a last minute steal and basket.  We missed several layups and did not get the offense in gear until the last few minutes of the quarter.  Then a C.al 8-0 run resulted in a 21-16 lead for them by the end of the first. 

The second quarter started better, with an Alanna trey, a steal and a layup.  But C.al found several back door cuts, often victimizing Williams, who also had 3 uncharacteristic turnovers.  Through the first half we shot only 29% while C.al shot 45%.  We just seemed less energetic and less focused than C.al.  Despite that, our offense was better in the 2nd than the first--we scored 21 to C.als 20, and we were lucky to go into the half down only 36-34, given the poor defensive performance.

The third quarter was more or less disastrous, as both our offense and defense hit new lows.  C.al started hitting mid range jumpers as if the basket were six feet wide--shooting 58% for the quarter-- and our offense crawled.  Entering the quarter down 2, we left it down 11.  While McPhee continued to be phenomenal--with 24 points through the third--we continued to suffer by poor rebounding--only 19 through 3 compared with C.al with 35. 

The early part of the fourth quarter gave us a ray of hope as we cut the lead to 2.  C.al had missed its first 6 shots of the quarter, and with 4:27 in the game we cut the lead to 60-62 when Alanna made a trey.  The game was within reach.    C.al wisely called a time out and the momentum seems to have ebbed.  But from 3:56 to 1:29 three different C.al players hit treys over our defense, and this swung the game decisively in their favor.  Perimeter defense let us down.  Our lack of rebounding was once again evident, and even a bad McPhee pass led to a turnovers at a critical juncture.  C.al pushed the lead to 10 as the minutes wound down.  McPhee looked winded and did not score in the last 7:22 of the game, missing three times and turning it over once.  Finally, at the end, wild three point shots and deliberate fouls further eroded our stat line, and the game ended ignominiously with a C.al 8-0 run until Smith completed a three point play.  C.al hit its free throws to win 78-66, erasing all hints that it had been close.

Performances:

A very disappointing outing, to be sure.  Our three point shooting was particularly terrible--22% compared with C.al's 41%, and this contributed to our woes.  We shot just 35% overall and let C.al shoot a respectable 44%.  The stats available from the game appear to be somewhat corrupted--I will revisit and correct when Stanford posts an accurate box score.

McPhee played a stronger game than Thursday, but it was not enough.  She scored 24 points and importantly hit 7/10 free throws.  But she also was only 1/6 from three point range and turned the ball over 5 times.  After we cut the lead to 2 with 4:27 left in the game, she just seemed to run out of energy--she did not score another point.  I believe she did her part defensively--holding Cowling to 7 points.

Smith also played a much better game than Thursday, scoring 20 points, grabbing 7 rebounds, also snagging 3 steals and 2 blocks while keeping her fouls under control.  If any of us had been asked how Stanford would do if McPhee scored 26 and Smith scored 20 we would have said we fixed our biggest problems from Thursday and would win easily.  But as Viking Guy pointed out (below), Smith was very inefficient.  While her 3/11 from long range might not be terrible, she was 4/13 from in close, with several misses from point blank.  She needs her shooter's touch back.

Williams had a decent game offensively, scoring 14 points.  But three turnovers in the first half hurt, and C.al figured out how to shake her on a series of back door cuts. 

After those three there was a dramatic and unacceptable drop-off in offense.  Johnson got her usual 6 points.  Sniezek's recent discovery of offense disappeared last game and did not return this game--0 points.  And as VG points out (below), Sniezek also only managed 3 assists in 31 minutes of play, and one of those was a successful but risky interior pass after she passed up a wide open jumper from mid range.  Carrington had only 2 points on 1/8 shooting, continuing what seems to be an offensive slump.  Fingall 0.  Dodson 0.  Basically, with Johnson and Sniezek on the floor C.al was defending 3 players with their 5--the same old problem we had earlier in the year.

Conclusion:
We should not overreact.  The season is far from over and we still have an opportunity to accomplish much more.  But we now need help to win the Pac 12 regular season, and we need help to have any kind of chance to host the NCAAs.  Both of these goals are now highly uncertain.  Winning the Pac 12 tourney would help the second goal, of course.

The real problem, though, is that we need to play better and this is a rotten time of year to have weaknesses exposed.  Our defense did not carry us in either of the last two games.  Having only 3 productive offensive players is a weakness for all to see.  Poor rebounding makes each mountain harder to climb.  The road trip to Washington will bring us to 2 decidedly inferior teams, but they will be playing with emotion and will have game plans fine tuned to exploit the weaknesses that C.al put on display today.  Tara has some important coaching left to do.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ C.al 2:30 - 81alum - 02-17-2018

The ESPN stats page says Coffee starting instead of Smith.  Odd.  Worrisome.  Perhaps they have it wrong.

Edit:  They do.  Smith starts.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ C.al 2:30 - TheFarm07 - 02-17-2018

Ca.l leads 21-16 after one quarter, punctuated by a Bears playing poking McPhee who has the ball getting instructions from the bench for one last shot of the period, but Ca.l isn't satisfied with waiting and gets the layup.

That was probably a foul, but if the refs aren't going to call that, then we need to be aggressive. As the announcers pointed out, the Bears want this and we have to match their intensity.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ C.al 2:30 - TheFarm07 - 02-17-2018

Ca.l leads 36-34 at halftime. We played the last 3 minutes without Britt who picked up her 2nd foul trying to grab the ball out of a Ca.l player after she rebounded the ball. I like her aggression, but perhaps not the wisest decision at that point.

For some reason, the live stats are behind, but our defense is not doing so well. We are leaving 3-point shooters wide open and then Ca.l has been able to outmaneuver us inside for some easy layups. We need to clamp down and not let them get so many easy shots.

On the offensive end, I would like to see some more consistent shooting and FT shooting. We've left 3 or 4 points on missed FT shots.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ C.al 2:30 - mbdude - 02-17-2018

ESPN stats and Live Stats are worthless - Don't have Smiths 3ptr, fouls not update etc

Only people scoring are McPhee Smith Williams

Re: WBB: Stanford @ C.al 2:30 - 81alum - 02-17-2018

Yes, all the stats are screwed up.  Must be something wrong coming out of C.al.

Some of them ring true, though.  We are being substantially out rebounded and C.al is shooting much better than we are.  Williams turned the ball over several times although overall turnovers are not bad.  Like Thursday, our defense is letting us down.  We are lucky to be down only by 2 points at the half.

Not sure what the halftime adjustments will be.  After all, this whole game is an adjustment after Thursday.  We need to stop letting C.al have those backdoor cuts, at least.  Both today and on Thursday you just get the feeling that Tara's scouting report was not all that successful, compared with how well prepared we were for Oregon State or Oregon, for example.  We don't seem to be slowing C.al's offense down a great deal, and winning by outscoring them is not that likely for a defensive team like us.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ C.al 2:30 - 81alum - 02-17-2018

This is turning into one of those games where a team gains confidence and starts shooting phenomenally well.  C.al is hitting all its mid range jumpers and we are struggling to keep up.  C.al's freshman Smith is 6/8 and Thomas is also killing us--almost all with mid range floaters and jumpers.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ C.al 2:30 - JTM - 02-17-2018

Where's our rebounding?  We're not crashing the boards.  Cal is playing with much more determination.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ C.al 2:30 - mbdude - 02-17-2018

Sniezek is giving Cal's Smith too much room - getting beat on the drives

But our whole defense seems unsure of what to do

Re: WBB: Stanford @ C.al 2:30 - TheFarm07 - 02-17-2018

Ca.l extends the lead to 59-48 as those shortcomings (turnover, poor shooting, opponents' offensive rebounding, poor FT shooting) are coming back to bite us.

The Bears have the art of the midrange jumper down. Meanwhile, we either try long range shots or drives, neither of which have been successful or at least nowhere enough to keep up.

We need an inspired last 10 minutes. Even if we lose, then we must be Bruins fans on Monday evening and hope they beat the Ducks, so that all 3 of us will have losses and we end up where we started this week in terms of Pac-12 standings.

Overall, another loss does not help our seeding purposes for the NCAA tournament. Ca.l's not a bad loss, but one wonders how Oregon and others have demolished them this season.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ C.al 2:30 - TheFarm07 - 02-17-2018

Ugh. That game was disappointing, but not surprising. Bad habits caught up to us.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ C.al 2:30 - RuralFan - 02-17-2018

Why is Tara delaying the game.  Stanford's season was over several minutes ago.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ C.al 2:30 - mbdude - 02-17-2018

(02-17-2018, 05:27 PM)RuralFan link Wrote:Why is Tara delaying the game.  Stanford's season was over several minutes ago.

Really?

Re: WBB: C.al 78 Stanford 66 - chimera - 02-17-2018

That's funny.  Season is far from over.  That said, we played poorly.  Gotta give cal credit, they played well and hit some threes, while we did not hit key shots.  Very winnable game though,  very, very.  I would not say this was the Stanford team that lost to WI, but it was also not the version that beat the Oregon teams on the road.  Defense never was good, in large part because rebounding kept cal in many possessions when we should have been going the other way.  No heroes this game for us.  Got close and then we missed a bunny and then turned it over when we could have had a transition layup, which was the end of the game when they hit a couple of threes after that.  We were ice cold from three.  I have not looked at stats but I bet the rebounding margin was large. 

Oh well.  Given how things looked before conference season started I would have been thrilled with this record at this point.  Still, this is a big hit to any hosting hopes.  Nine losses already and I just cannot see the committee giving a host spot to a double digit loss team, which we will be if we don't pull of a brobdingnagian P-12 tourney (and take care of business at UW and WSU).  That all being said, I'd rather be a 6 seed than a 5 if we are not a host.  At least that way if we manage two wins we would not face a top seed in the NCAAs.  Then again, play like this, and not gonna win two in the NCAAs.

Re: WBB: C.al 78 Stanford 66 - PVTree - 02-17-2018

What an awful game. Very little to like about it.

What's wrong with Smith? She missed 2 easy buckets, one a layup early, and the other a crucial miss at the end when 2 cal players fell and she was left alone to put it in from 3 feet away.

The only offensive players I trust are McPhee and Williams. The rest make me hold my breath every time they shoot. I saw Johnson and Carrington take poor shots despite being close to the basket.

Our free throw shooting suxed as usual. Our defense was surprisingly weak, except for a stretch early in the 4th quarter.

We need that reliable low-post presence to develop for next year (this year it's too late) to go with Williams, Smith, and whomever takes that next step.

This year, I think we have a team to get to the sweet sixteen and would be happily surprised to get farther than that.

Re: WBB: C.al 78 Stanford 66 - 81alum - 02-17-2018

Write up done at the top.

This loss did not end our season, but it made it much, much harder for us to reach the limited goals of winning the Pac 12 and hosting the NCAAs. 

So, if UCLA beats Oregon (and Tara has already predicted an Oregon win) there would be a three way tie and I guess we still get the top Pac 12 seed in such a tie.  But playing at home and with the league title on the line, I'm inclined to agree with Tara.  However, keep in mind that Oregon has to go on the road and play at ASU the next week.  UCLA has Colorado and Utah at home, so it is highly unlikely that they will lose a game after they are finished with Oregon.  This thing could come down to the last weekend.

So we need either UCLA or ASU to beat Oregon for us to get the top seed in the Pac 12 tourney.  It is practically impossible now for us to win the Pac 12 regular season outright, but quite possible for us to share it with Oregon, or UCLA, or both.  If I had to predict the most likely outcome--we get the second seed and have to play UCLA in the semifinals, provided we get there of course.  In one way that could be good--if we beat both UCLA and Oregon in the Pac 12 tournament it would dramatically enhance our NCAA seed, as well as keeping us from getting that nasty 10th loss on the season that has Chimera worried.

My guess is that the reveal on Monday will give have UCLA, Oregon, and Oregon State hosting and us not hosting, given OSU's big win and our big loss.  That could be reversed if we beat a couple of them in the Pac 12 tournament.  My guess is that the Pac 12 tournament will have the effect of determining which Pac 12 teams get to host in the NCAAs.



Re: WBB: C.al 78 Stanford 66 - TheFarm07 - 02-17-2018

I agree. Regardless of whether we host or not, I could see us losing in the 2nd round or if we play well, I think our ceiling is the Elite 8 if everything falls into place, but I can't see us beating us a #1 seed; our offense is too inconsistent, because I feel like a) our shooters aren't as efficient as they should be (we don't hit as many of our "easy" i.e. open, lightly defended shots as we should) and b) partly because of a, we either drive or attempt a lot of 3-pt shots and teams can game plan to clog up the lane or guard the arc. Only Kiana and Brit tries and makes a good percentage of midrange jumpers and unsurprisingly perhaps, they are our only 2 reliable scorers.

Alanna is very frustrating; she had a few layups/easy shots she should have made when the game was still in question. That's what separates her from being good to being very good. She needs to convert those shots. I'm somewhat surprised she had 20 points--she should have at least 25 points or more.

Our shooting percentage is really bad for the season--low 40s. The elite teams are in the upper 40s to the 50s with games regularly in the +50%. UConn has had a couple of insane 70% shooting percentage games--they simply do not miss when they have an open shot, which we do way too often. And you don't have to be the Huskies to make shots--Ca.l today had their way with midrange jumpers for a while.

Looking ahead to next season (I haven't given up on this season, but my expectations have been tempered and so I'm trying to comfort myself with hopes for the future), I really hope that Dodson works on her game over the summer. Kaylee has been getting a lot of playing time because of her defense and senior experience but I think it will be a step up offensively if/when Dodson takes over the 5 next season. We've seen flashes of her great athleticism this season, but she's still very unpolished finishing around the basket and I imagine with Tara's defense-first mindset, her minutes have been limited this year due to her defensive shortcomings.

With Kaylee graduated, the open spot is primed for a spot up in offensive production. Similarly, DiJonai plays a similar game to McPhee, but must work on her consistency. Sometimes, she still doesn't know when to stop and pop or maneuver around defenders if she's driving, something McPhee has largely learned. She also flings up wild shots, hoping for a foul or a miracle sometimes. She needs to work on the midrange jumper and then recognize who's waiting for her in the paint and whether it would be more prudent to stop for a jumper, continue going or pass to perhaps someone more open/in a more favorable matchup. With Brit also gone to graduation, DiJonai must fill in the 3 spot.

Then Alanna...Alanna is still an enigma heading in her senior year. Capable of brilliance at times, but maddeningly inconsistent at other times. Her game should be a nightmare for opposing teams to defend, tall enough for the paint, but with enough range to shoot it from the arc, but nowhere near consistent enough on a night to night basis.

Kiana has been our brightest hope for the future, but she must not be satisfied with her level. I hope she can further develop into an All-American-level pure guard, we haven't had one in a while. She's shown her shooting prowess, more consistency there, plus being able to drive to the basket through athleticism and strength can make her extremely dangerous to guard.

Sniezek will get playing time at the 1, because of her ability to manage the offense and her passing, but I really hope that she continues to be more assertive offensively.

I know this thread is about today's game, but as I alluded to earlier in this post, the result this afternoon only further solidifies my defeated opinion that no matter what happens next weekend and in the conference tourney, our NCAA run will likely be short (regardless of hosting) unless our offense becomes more consistent, which hasn't happened yet all season. Let's see what Tara can do...

Re: WBB: C.al 78 Stanford 66 - mbdude - 02-17-2018

checking stats for rebounding numbers, etc but they are still not up to date. hopefully Stanford posts accurate numbers tomorrow

Re: WBB: C.al 78 Stanford 66 - 81alum - 02-17-2018

(02-17-2018, 06:18 PM)TheFarm07 link Wrote:I agree. Regardless of whether we host or not, I could see us losing in the 2nd round or if we play well, I think our ceiling is the Elite 8 if everything falls into place, but I can't see us beating us a #1 seed; our offense is too inconsistent, because I feel like a) our shooters aren't as efficient as they should be (we don't hit as many of our "easy" i.e. open, lightly defended shots as we should) and b) partly because of a, we either drive or attempt a lot of 3-pt shots and teams can game plan to clog up the lane or guard the arc. Only Kiana and Brit tries and makes a good percentage of midrange jumpers and unsurprisingly perhaps, they are our only 2 reliable scorers.

Alanna is very frustrating; she had a few layups/easy shots she should have made when the game was still in question. That's what separates her from being good to being very good. She needs to convert those shots. I'm somewhat surprised she had 20 points--she should have at least 25 points or more.

Our shooting percentage is really bad for the season--low 40s. The elite teams are in the upper 40s to the 50s with games regularly in the +50%. UConn has had a couple of insane 70% shooting percentage games--they simply do not miss when they have an open shot, which we do way too often.

Looking ahead to next season (I haven't given up on this season, but my expectations have been tempered and so I'm trying to comfort myself with hopes for the future), I really hope that Dodson works on her game over the summer. Kaylee has been getting a lot of playing time because of her defense and senior experience but I think it will be a step up offensively if/when Dodson takes over the 5 next season. We've seen flashes of her great athleticism this season, but she's still very unpolished at the net and I imagine with Tara's defense-first mindset, her minutes have been limited due to her defensive shortcomings.

With Kaylee graduated, the open spot is primed for a spot up in offensive production. Similarly, DiJonai plays a similar game to McPhee, but must work on her consistency. Sometimes, she still doesn't know when to stop and pop or maneuver around defenders if she's driving, something McPhee has largely learned. With Brit also gone to graduation, DiJonai must fill in the 3 spot.

Then Alanna...Alanna is still an enigma heading in her senior year. Capable of brilliance at times, but maddeningly inconsistent at other times. Her game should be a nightmare for opposing teams to defend, tall enough for the paint, but with enough range to shoot it from the arc, but nowhere near consistent enough on a night to night basis.

I know this thread is about today's game, but as I said, the result this afternoon only further solidifies that no matter what happens next weekend and in the conference tourney, our NCAA run will likely be short (regardless of hosting) unless our offense becomes more consistent, which hasn't happened yet all season.

Yes, to everything you said.

The Hulls could compete by the end of the season with Carrington for time at wing, and Jerome could get a lot of time there if the 4-5 get settled.  Carrington has no guarantees.

Maybe Carrington goes to the 2 and Williams becomes the starting point guard.  Or Brown competes for starting time at the 1 or more likely 2, following in Williams' footsteps.  Sniezek has no guarantees.

Dodson needs to develop over the off season and I think she will, and will be a major improvement offensively at the 5 when she gets a little more touch.  Hopefully her defense will come along too.

At the 4, Fingall could challenge Smith.  I think Tara may have been sending Smith a message in the second half of our first C.al game when she left Fingall in and sat Smith.

Having any reliable three point shooting guard (who can also defend) besides Williams will create a big incentive to move Williams to the 1 and Sniezek to the bench.  That could come from an improved Wilson or very possibly from Jenna Brown.  Brown will have to show she can defend the likes of Asha Thomas, though, before Tara gives her too many minutes.

Let's put it this way--there could be a big shake up for next year as Dodson, Jerome, and Wilson develop and as the Hulls and Brown come in.  The team should be better next year despite the loss of Britt, and it could be better the next despite the loss of Smith.  We are playing this year without the normal quality and quantity of upper class players as we have had in the past, and that situation is going to improve each year for the next few.

Re: WBB: C.al 78 Stanford 66 - BobK - 02-17-2018

I can’t agree our ceiling is elite 8 and we won’t go far thus post season. 😀
Or the season is over.  😳

Not a good showing at all and the worst was getting to with 4 late then fading. 

But giving up is just sad and I’m not. 
Btw the suspended Washington State players are back and they still lost