Women's Tennis: Updated Team Rankings

Women's Tennis: Updated Team Rankings - Printable Version

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Women's Tennis: Updated Team Rankings - ColoradoTree - 03-13-2018

I'd normally include these in the match preview post at the end of the week, but since there was interest last week, here they are:

Stanford climbs from #46 to #25 on the strength of wins over UCLA and USC.Â We're now in shouting distance of a Top 16 seed and a home date for the first two rounds.Â If the rest of the conference schedule goes well, and we win the Pac-12, we'll be right back in it.Â I'd like to sneak into the Top 8, at least, to avoid an overly difficult Round of 16 match. We'll have to beat the top few teams eventually, of course, but since we get better as the season goes on, I'd prefer to play them as late as possible.Â

As for the rest of the Pac-12:

15. UCLA (only fell two spots after losing to us and then beating Cal)
20. Oregon (climbed a spot despite losing to Wazzu in Eugene, but the 5-2 win over UW showed nice depth)
25. Stanford
35. Washington State (the highest they've ever been, maybe; a 15-spot jump)
37. Arizona State (drops 3 spots after sweeping Utah and Colorado, albeit narrowly)
41. Washington (drops 8 after losing to Oregon)

Cal remains unranked after beating USC but losing to UCLA. USC drops out of the rankings after getting swept by Stanford/Cal.

I told you guys these things were noisy, didn't I?Â A 21-point jump after one weekend is crazy!

Re: Women's Tennis: Updated Team Rankings - ColoradoTree - 03-13-2018

Lots of SEC and ACC teams in the top 16 right now, so as those teams play each other and accumulate more losses, we should be in good position if all goes well for us. As it stands, we should be favored in each of our remaining 10 matches this season.Â If that happens, 16-3 going into the Pac-12 championships is much closer to what we're used to seeing out of this team.Â

Re: Women's Tennis: Updated Team Rankings - oldalum - 03-13-2018

the recent singles lineup swaps (Arbuthnott/Lampl and Higuchi/Shin) seem to have helped.

Two weeks ago we had ~15 ranking points, today we have ~30. Based on current standings, we'll need to get above 40 points to get into the top 16. Seems doable if we win out, but you never know with the ITA's system.

Re: Women's Tennis: Updated Team Rankings - ColoradoTree - 03-13-2018

(03-13-2018, 11:37 AM)oldalum link Wrote: the recent singles lineup swaps (Arbuthnott/Lampl and Higuchi/Shin) seem to have helped.

Two weeks ago we had ~15 ranking points, today we have ~30. Based on current standings, we'll need to get above 40 points to get into the top 16. Seems doable if we win out, but you never know with the ITA's system.

For sure. I think Arbuthnott earned her initial #2 spot based on her excellent fall season (while Lampl wasn't as impressive), but Lampl has really upped her game with the dual season upon us, and that switch certainly paid dividends. And it's odd to see freshmen playing at #1 and #4, but you're right, the Higuchi-Shin swap has worked well.Â I've been really impressed with Kimberly Yee coming on, too.Â She might not be in the lineup much longer once Lord returns, but Yee might be one of those players for whom feel is important. She's gotten better over the course of this young dual season, so getting more matches than usual has certainly seemed helpful for her.

And as for the rankings, I'm now confident that we'll be in the Top 16 if we win out. That would mean at least 4 more wins over ranked opponents (Oregon, Wazzu, ASU, and UW), and likely 5 assuming Cal rejoins the rankings sooner rather than later.Â Though that's just the regular season--a loss in the Pac-12 championships could bump us back out of the Top 16. But three more wins there would run the record to 19-3, with the benefit of a couple more wins over ranked opponents, including another win over UCLA, who should be the highest-ranked non-Stanford team in the conference at that point. At that point, I think Stanford would be knocking on the door of the Top 10 and would be seeded somewhere from 8-11 for the tournament.

For comparison's sake, here are the last few seasons with total and conference records going into the NCAA tournament, the resulting NCAA seed, and Stanford's ultimate performance in that tournament:

2017: 21-2 (13-0); #7 (includes 3-0 record in Pac-12 championships); lost in NCAA final
2016: 14-5 (9-2); #15; won NCAA championship
2015: 15-5 (7-4); #14; lost in NCAA quarters
2014: 16-2 (9-2); #11; lost in NCAA semis
2013: 16-4 (9-2); #12; won NCAA championship

Note: In 2013-17, we played Cal twice in the regular season, but only one was an official Pac-12 match; I'm counting both matches each year here in the conference record because that makes sense to me.

Re: Women's Tennis: Updated Team Rankings - Spiny_Norman - 03-13-2018

(03-13-2018, 02:37 PM)ColoradoTree link Wrote: She might not be in the lineup much longer once Lord returns

Shouldn't that be *if* Lord returns?Â Is there any indication that she will play at all this year?

Re: Women's Tennis: Updated Team Rankings - ColoradoTree - 03-13-2018

(03-13-2018, 02:54 PM)Spiny_Norman link Wrote: [quote author=ColoradoTree link=topic=18864.msg225858#msg225858 date=1520977055]
She might not be in the lineup much longer once Lord returns

Shouldn't that be *if* Lord returns?Â Is there any indication that she will play at all this year?
[/quote]

Nope, no indication at all. I have simply decided to be stubbornly optimistic about her situation.